ADVERTISEMENT

Expected Wins

R

ricko654321

Well-Known Member
Nov 15, 2006
4,108
3,089
113
So this isn't my personal season predictions, I'm guessing that thread will be started later this summer. This is just trying to assess, if reasonable lines were to be set today in advance of the season, what would be our chances and expectations for each game.

Nevada: NU -23 (man that's a lot), Cats 95% to Win
@Duke: NU -6, Cats 70% to win
BGSU: NU -17, Cats 90% to win
Out of Conference - 2.55 and 0.45

@Wisconsin: NU +8, Cats 25% to win
Penn St: NU +6, Cats 30% to win
@Maryland: NU -5, Cats 65% to win
Iowa: NU -3.5, Cats 60% to win
Michigan St: NU -5, Cats 65% to win
@Nebraska: NU +3.5, Cats 40% to win
Purdue: NU -14, Cats 85% to win
Minnesota: NU -6, Cats 70% to win
@Illinois: NU -8, Cats 75% to win
Conference - 5.15 and 3.85

That gets me to a total of 7.7 and 4.3, rounding to an 8-4 (5-4) season. I'd personally be a bit more optimistic than that for some of these games, but that's a quick best guess for what is discounted in the market currently. And looking at it this way does emphasize how much of a crapshoot each B1G game is - for example, by these numbers there is about a 36% chance we lose to either Purdue or Illinois... but a 47.5% chance we beat either Wisconsin or PSU (I think more!).

Fire away with your points of disagreement on the various inputs.

Go Cats
Rick
 
ricko654321 said:
So this isn't my personal season predictions, I'm guessing that thread will be started later this summer. This is just trying to assess, if reasonable lines were to be set today in advance of the season, what would be our chances and expectations for each game.

Nevada: NU -23 (man that's a lot), Cats 95% to Win
@Duke: NU -6, Cats 70% to win
BGSU: NU -17, Cats 90% to win
Out of Conference - 2.55 and 0.45

@Wisconsin: NU +8, Cats 25% to win
Penn St: NU +6, Cats 30% to win
@Maryland: NU -5, Cats 65% to win
Iowa: NU -3.5, Cats 60% to win
Michigan St: NU -5, Cats 65% to win
@Nebraska: NU +3.5, Cats 40% to win
Purdue: NU -14, Cats 85% to win
Minnesota: NU -6, Cats 70% to win
@Illinois: NU -8, Cats 75% to win
Conference - 5.15 and 3.85

That gets me to a total of 7.7 and 4.3, rounding to an 8-4 (5-4) season. I'd personally be a bit more optimistic than that for some of these games, but that's a quick best guess for what is discounted in the market currently. And looking at it this way does emphasize how much of a crapshoot each B1G game is - for example, by these numbers there is about a 36% chance we lose to either Purdue or Illinois... but a 47.5% chance we beat either Wisconsin or PSU (I think more!).

Fire away with your points of disagreement on the various inputs.

Go Cats
Rick
Click to expand...
8 wins is about what I'd expect based on what we know now. There are always surprises, of course.
 
FeralFelidae said:
I posted a thread awhile back that you might find informative:

Crunching the Numbers
Click to expand...
took a look, good stuff. ESPN is more optimistic about our chances against Nebraska and MSU than popular opinion, I think. If I were personally assessing, I probably would have increased our chances against Wisconsin some (who I think has a QB problem and a D slightly less good), against PSU some (they are a great team, but we match up well with them), and against Iowa who I don't think is great this year. I'm worried MSU will have a bounce back and be a tough out. And winning @Neb is always going to be tough, definitely doable but don't see us as an outright favorite.

also, nice work on your analysis, once you have the P's though i probably would have just Monte Carlo'd it rather than brute force. though your way provides a cleaner answer I guess.
 
  • Like
Reactions: rmndcat
I kind of hate to say it but the B1G season (not the entire season) boils down to beating Wisconsin. Maybe if we lose to Wisconsin and beat PSU we can pull it out but I feel like this is the year we are "supposed" to contend for the Division title and beating Wisconsin puts us on top and I think is inspirational for the confidence to be champions.
Having said that, if we win all three Non Conference games we could go 4 and 5 in the B1G get to a bowl, win and call it a good season. That is kind of the season I expect.
 
  • Like
Reactions: NUCat320 and rmndcat
ricko654321 said:
also, nice work on your analysis, once you have the P's though i probably would have just Monte Carlo'd it rather than brute force. though your way provides a cleaner answer I guess.
Click to expand...
Why Monte Carlo it when you can calculate the exact answer? I would have written a computer program either way; I wasn't brute-forcing it by hand.
 
Deeringfish said:
I kind of hate to say it but the B1G season (not the entire season) boils down to beating Wisconsin. Maybe if we lose to Wisconsin and beat PSU we can pull it out but I feel like this is the year we are "supposed" to contend for the Division title and beating Wisconsin puts us on top and I think is inspirational for the confidence to be champions.
Having said that, if we win all three Non Conference games we could go 4 and 5 in the B1G get to a bowl, win and call it a good season. That is kind of the season I expect.
Click to expand...

I'd be really effing pissed if they only went 4-5 in the B1G with that D and QB/RB combo, heads better roll if this is this case IMO
 
  • Like
Reactions: NUCat320
FeralFelidae said:
Why Monte Carlo it when you can calculate the exact answer? I would have written a computer program either way; I wasn't brute-forcing it by hand.
Click to expand...
well i assume not haha, that would be terribly inefficient.

but because you could set up a Monte Carlo in Excel in about 2 minutes and get essentially the right answer provided you run enough simulations. I'd think 10k would do nicely, provided you aren't overly focused on the tail outcomes (ie 0 or 12 wins - which are calculable very easily by hand anyways).
 
chicagocatfan24 said:
I'd be really effing pissed if they only went 4-5 in the B1G with that D and QB/RB combo, heads better roll if this is this case IMO
Click to expand...
i don't think 7-5 (4-5) would be a "heads better roll" situation, but it would certainly be disappointing. and if the losses were driven by continued poor performance from certain position groups then i would be in favor of changes there.

8-4 feels like the median outcome, though I think we can beat that.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: rmndcat
Deeringfish said:
I kind of hate to say it but the B1G season (not the entire season) boils down to beating Wisconsin. Maybe if we lose to Wisconsin and beat PSU we can pull it out but I feel like this is the year we are "supposed" to contend for the Division title and beating Wisconsin puts us on top and I think is inspirational for the confidence to be champions.
Having said that, if we win all three Non Conference games we could go 4 and 5 in the B1G get to a bowl, win and call it a good season. That is kind of the season I expect.
Click to expand...
There is no way we go 4-5 in the B1G unless we have major injuries.
 
  • Like
Reactions: nu greek, Alaskawildkat, mikewebb68 and 2 others
Wisconsin will be coming off a game @BYU, & the BYU game should give NU an excellent look at Wisconsin's pass defense, so I say 50-50. The following week PSU will be coming off a bye, and Barkley and McSorley are uh, pretty good, so a 30% looks very optimistic. IMHO the Cats have as good a chance as anyone in the West of going to Indianapolis.
 
CatsDad said:
There is no way we go 4-5 in the B1G unless we have major injuries.
Click to expand...
I hope you're right, and I certainly don't think it's the most likely outcome, but we also might have said that going into the 2001 and 2013 seasons, which are probably the last two times expectations were this high. Or even 1997 going back further...
 
Deeringfish said:
I kind of hate to say it but the B1G season (not the entire season) boils down to beating Wisconsin. Maybe if we lose to Wisconsin and beat PSU we can pull it out but I feel like this is the year we are "supposed" to contend for the Division title and beating Wisconsin puts us on top and I think is inspirational for the confidence to be champions.
Having said that, if we win all three Non Conference games we could go 4 and 5 in the B1G get to a bowl, win and call it a good season. That is kind of the season I expect.
Click to expand...

I agree completely with you relative to the importance of Wisconsin - I had posted a thread earlier asking if it was the most important conference opener ever. I also agree almost completely with Ricko's estimate.

The thing with his estimate and with your point about Wisconsin is that if the Cats beat Wisconsin, it will be because of the development of the O-line and receiving corps. If they win, you need to recalculate the probabilities of the trailing games, and the expected outcome goes from about 7.5 -4.5 to 10-2; that is the expectation with a Wisconsin win is about 10-2, without it, about 7-5.
 
eastbaycat99 said:
I agree completely with you relative to the importance of Wisconsin - I had posted a thread earlier asking if it was the most important conference opener ever. I also agree almost completely with Ricko's estimate.

The thing with his estimate and with your point about Wisconsin is that if the Cats beat Wisconsin, it will be because of the development of the O-line and receiving corps. If they win, you need to recalculate the probabilities of the trailing games, and the expected outcome goes from about 7.5 -4.5 to 10-2; that is the expectation with a Wisconsin win is about 10-2, without it, about 7-5.
Click to expand...
It's pretty enormous for sure. Plus the tiebreaker on the division crown gives us another free loss elsewhere (Iowa or @Neb). If we go 7-2 with a win over Wiscy and PSU one of the losses, it is very likely that we take the division.

It's gotta be the biggest early season conference game since OSU.
 
chicagocatfan24 said:
I'd be really effing pissed if they only went 4-5 in the B1G with that D and QB/RB combo, heads better roll if this is this case IMO
Click to expand...
I did say plus a bowl win. Look what 6 and 6 and a bowl win got us. We have been pretty happy all off season.
 
A Bowl WIN is key. Without a Bowl win the regular season is tainted.
 
chicagocatfan24 said:
I'd rather lose in the Rose Bowl than win a shitty Motor City Rosati's pizza bowl sponsored by Guaranteed Rate field home of Comiskey Park at the Cell or some shit
Click to expand...

I think there is such a thing as a "good loss" if we play well against a respectable opponent. But a win goes a long way toward redeeming a mediocre season.
 
eastbaycat99 said:
I agree completely with you relative to the importance of Wisconsin - I had posted a thread earlier asking if it was the most important conference opener ever. I also agree almost completely with Ricko's estimate.

The thing with his estimate and with your point about Wisconsin is that if the Cats beat Wisconsin, it will be because of the development of the O-line and receiving corps. If they win, you need to recalculate the probabilities of the trailing games, and the expected outcome goes from about 7.5 -4.5 to 10-2; that is the expectation with a Wisconsin win is about 10-2, without it, about 7-5.
Click to expand...

I don't understand this 10-2 to 7-5 with a Whisky loss. What if the O-Line plays decent and Thor of JJTBC have an uncharacteristic bad outing? I agree it is a tone setter, but if we lose to Whisky, I would still expect us to be better than 7-5, as long as we were unbeaten in OCC.
 
chicagocatfan24 said:
I'd rather lose in the Rose Bowl than win a shitty Motor City Rosati's pizza bowl sponsored by Guaranteed Rate field home of Comiskey Park at the Cell or some shit
Click to expand...
I agree with this, because that means we are playing for a National Championship. Let's win the West and the B1G
 
Purple Pile Driver said:
I don't understand this 10-2 to 7-5 with a Whisky loss. What if the O-Line plays decent and Thor of JJTBC have an uncharacteristic bad outing? I agree it is a tone setter, but if we lose to Whisky, I would still expect us to be better than 7-5, as long as we were unbeaten in OCC.
Click to expand...

I think Ricko's estimate is pretty accurate, but it really is a Markov method, and subsequent probabilities are changed based on earlier outcomes. Not only does the expected victory total increase by .75 just due to the victory, the probability of winning each of the subsequent eight games increases by a .2 or more since by beating Wisconsin, they are probably better than they were thought to be before the season started; hence, 10 or so wins.
 
eastbaycat99 said:
I think Ricko's estimate is pretty accurate, but it really is a Markov method, and subsequent probabilities are changed based on earlier outcomes. Not only does the expected victory total increase by .75 just due to the victory, the probability of winning each of the subsequent eight games increases by a .2 or more since by beating Wisconsin, they are probably better than they were thought to be before the season started; hence, 10 or so wins.
Click to expand...
I didn't go to NU, I can't comprehend much above sports talk radio level. I'll stick with losing to Whisky won't destroy the season.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ricko654321
Purple Pile Driver said:
I didn't go to NU, I can't comprehend much above sports talk radio level. I'll stick with losing to Whisky won't destroy the season.
Click to expand...
It's just a matter of conditional probability. He's (or she I don't eastbay) saying that, conditionally, if we beat Wisconsin, then our chances of winning the future games are much higher than what we might have projected before the season. And that if we win that game and are 4-0 then we might reasonably expect to go 10-2 from there.

Which, to be fair, you could probably say the same thing about lots of big games, such as PSU, though to a lesser extent.

And I don't think the implication was that the season is lost if we lose to them, we'll be fine, more that it is hugely boosted if we manage to get that win.
 
phatcat said:
But a lot of people were unhappy "in season"
Click to expand...
Pretty much everybody was unhappy at 0-2. After that, the Cats - while not playing up to their complete potential - righted the ship and did not get embarrassed again. 7-4 finish after an 0-2 start with a reasonable B1G record and bowl win got most of us out of "unhappy" mode.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Alaskawildkat
Frabjous said:
PSU will be coming off a bye, and Barkley and McSorley are uh, pretty good, so a 30% looks very optimistic. IMHO the Cats have as good a chance as anyone in the West of going to Indianapolis.
Click to expand...

Hopefully the homecoming home field advantage will work for us this year when PSU comes to town. Do the above analytical models include that intangible?

Looks like I will be able to add a little Alaska karma as I just booked a flight and secured a ticket for the home coming game.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CatsDad
Alaskawildkat said:
Hopefully the homecoming home field advantage will work for us this year when PSU comes to town. Do the above analytical models include that intangible?

Looks like I will be able to add a little Alaska karma as I just booked a flight and secured a ticket for the home coming game.
Click to expand...
Great! The frosted cookies will be waiting at the Rolling Rock tent.
 
GlideCat said:
Pretty much everybody was unhappy at 0-2. After that, the Cats - while not playing up to their complete potential - righted the ship and did not get embarrassed again. 7-4 finish after an 0-2 start with a reasonable B1G record and bowl win got most of us out of "unhappy" mode.
Click to expand...
The Minnesota loss should not have happened either.
 
ricko654321 said:
So this isn't my personal season predictions, I'm guessing that thread will be started later this summer. This is just trying to assess, if reasonable lines were to be set today in advance of the season, what would be our chances and expectations for each game.

Nevada: NU -23 (man that's a lot), Cats 95% to Win
@Duke: NU -6, Cats 70% to win
BGSU: NU -17, Cats 90% to win
Out of Conference - 2.55 and 0.45

@Wisconsin: NU +8, Cats 25% to win
Penn St: NU +6, Cats 30% to win
@Maryland: NU -5, Cats 65% to win
Iowa: NU -3.5, Cats 60% to win
Michigan St: NU -5, Cats 65% to win
@Nebraska: NU +3.5, Cats 40% to win
Purdue: NU -14, Cats 85% to win
Minnesota: NU -6, Cats 70% to win
@Illinois: NU -8, Cats 75% to win
Conference - 5.15 and 3.85

That gets me to a total of 7.7 and 4.3, rounding to an 8-4 (5-4) season. I'd personally be a bit more optimistic than that for some of these games, but that's a quick best guess for what is discounted in the market currently. And looking at it this way does emphasize how much of a crapshoot each B1G game is - for example, by these numbers there is about a 36% chance we lose to either Purdue or Illinois... but a 47.5% chance we beat either Wisconsin or PSU (I think more!).

Fire away with your points of disagreement on the various inputs.

Go Cats
Rick
Click to expand...
I predict we lose two that you predict as wins (Duke and MSU) and win one you predict as a loss (Wiscy) 8-4. Likely not less than that but we could be 11-1 or 10-2 if offense is clicking.
 
stpaulcat said:
I predict we lose two that you predict as wins (Duke and MSU) and win one you predict as a loss (Wiscy) 8-4. Likely not less than that but we could be 11-1 or 10-2 if offense is clicking.
Click to expand...
Shouldn't lose to Duke, ever! The game they need to win is at Wisconsin or there will not be a trip to Indianapolis.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

E

My one disappointment about this year

Replies
28
Views
1K
Wildcat Basketball Board
CappyNU
C
lou v

NU Football documentary premieres Sunday on BTN

Replies
6
Views
2K
FloridAlum Memorial Football Board
Alaskawildkat
Alaskawildkat
E

Will a top B1G team beat a top B1G team on the road this year?

Replies
7
Views
473
Wildcat Basketball Board
Purple Pile Driver
Purple Pile Driver
The Purple Knight

It’s coming to an end

Replies
21
Views
1K
The Rock
hdhntr1
H
CatManTrue
  • Locked

We should totally mail in the BTT, rest our starters, and play our backups.

Replies
6
Views
327
Wildcat Basketball Board
CappyNU
C
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT
Top Bottom
Back