According to Torvik's website, at the time Jalen Leach was ejected, Northwestern had increased its likelihood of victory to a game-high 50%,
The likelihood of a Northwestern victory dropped to 25% as soon as Leach "fouled out."
I should point out that this game's official play-by-play is riddled with errors. Most importantly, Angelo Ciaravino played 6 minutes less than what the box score says. Matt Nicholson played 6 minutes more than what the box score says. The official scorer sucked. The major mistake happened at 18:37 of the 2nd half, when Nicholson committed a foul and Collins subbed in Ty Berry for Angelo Ciaravino. The official scorer has it as Berry in for Nicholson. That lineup played for 5:41. I re-watched the game. Nicholson stayed on the court. I checked Torvik, his numbers are wrong too. Everybody uses the same source.
Beyond that, there is a steal by Windham that is credited to Ty Berry. Nicholson gets an offensive rebound on his own made free throw. Thats just the errors I noticed. I'm guessing there are more. Correcting for the known errors, here's what we get... I dropped the last 19 seconds, which lasted an eternity and consisted of fouls, lineup changes and free throws.
Rough game for Martinelli particularly. 5 of 17 from the field with 4 turnovers, 0 steals, 0 assists, 0 blocks with 9 of 12 from the free throw line.
He played the whole game and was clearly tired, contributing relatively little after halftime.
He and Barnhizer get punished by this metric, since they are being made to handle the ball and they're turning it over often, with minimal assists.
5 turnovers, 1 assist, 0 steals for Barnhizer.
Barnhizer did a good job defensively on Michigan's Danny Wolf - but that doesn't show up here.
Meanwhile Leach was playing his best game of the season when he was intentionally kicked in the nuts by the refs. He shot the ball really well and was able to get to the rim several times. 5 assists, which is great when we only had 7 as a team, but thats offset by his 3 turnovers.
Matt Nicholson definitely played almost 36 minutes. He had 16 rebounds... at least according to the incompetent official scorer.
Lineup-wise, the starters (Nicholson/Martinelli/Barnhizer/Ciaravino/Leach) played 6 minutes together and won 9-8.
The old starters (Ty Berry in for Ciaravino) played almost 13 minutes together and outscored Michigan 27-22.
Nicholson/Martinelli/Barnhizer/Ciaravino/Berry got about 5:30 together and tied 9-9.
When Fitzmorris played with Martinelli/Barnhizer/Berry/Leach for 3:49, we outscored the Wolverines 9-7.
KJ Windham got 3 minutes with the A team after Leach was ejected, playing alongside Nicholson, Martinelli, Barnhizer and Berry. We got outscored 4-3 over that segment as Barnhizer turned the ball over twice, Ty Berry missed a 3-pointer on consecutive possessions and Martinelli missed a shot. The only time we scored was when Berry poked the ball away to Nicholson who got it back to Berry for a fastbreak layup. Regrettably, we took 10 seconds to get the ball across midcourt when Barnhizer rebounded a missed free throw, dribbled around then passed it to Martinelli near midcourt who passed it back to Windham facing a double team. Windham responded to that turnover with a brilliant steal, but Collins took him out with 6:17 to go - and that ended KJ's afternoon.
Hopefully Berry and Leach have some momentum going into the Indiana game.
Not sure what's going on with Justin Mullins, but I don't want to see Blake Smith playing in close games unless it is absolutely necessary.
The likelihood of a Northwestern victory dropped to 25% as soon as Leach "fouled out."
I should point out that this game's official play-by-play is riddled with errors. Most importantly, Angelo Ciaravino played 6 minutes less than what the box score says. Matt Nicholson played 6 minutes more than what the box score says. The official scorer sucked. The major mistake happened at 18:37 of the 2nd half, when Nicholson committed a foul and Collins subbed in Ty Berry for Angelo Ciaravino. The official scorer has it as Berry in for Nicholson. That lineup played for 5:41. I re-watched the game. Nicholson stayed on the court. I checked Torvik, his numbers are wrong too. Everybody uses the same source.
Beyond that, there is a steal by Windham that is credited to Ty Berry. Nicholson gets an offensive rebound on his own made free throw. Thats just the errors I noticed. I'm guessing there are more. Correcting for the known errors, here's what we get... I dropped the last 19 seconds, which lasted an eternity and consisted of fouls, lineup changes and free throws.
| Player | Minutes | NU Pts | Mich Pts | Raw +/- | Player +/- | Net +/- | Box Pts |
| Nicholson | 36 | 58 | 60 | -2 | +4.58 | +4.18 | 9.15 |
| Leach | 27 | 49 | 46 | +3 | +3.52 | +4.12 | 8.40 |
| Berry | 37 | 63 | 66 | -3 | +2.08 | +1.48 | 6.90 |
| Fitzmorris | 7 | 11 | 12 | -1 | +0.50 | +0.30 | 1.50 |
| Windham | 7 | 8 | 11 | -3 | +0.03 | -0.57 | 0.30 |
| Smith | 7 | 6 | 12 | -6 | +0.28 | -0.92 | 0.00 |
| Ciaravino | 16 | 24 | 26 | -2 | -1.53 | -1.93 | 0.40 |
| Barnhizer | 42 | 68 | 69 | -1 | -2.43 | -2.63 | 2.50 |
| Martinelli | 45 | 72 | 76 | -4 | -7.17 | -7.97 | -0.40 |
Rough game for Martinelli particularly. 5 of 17 from the field with 4 turnovers, 0 steals, 0 assists, 0 blocks with 9 of 12 from the free throw line.
He played the whole game and was clearly tired, contributing relatively little after halftime.
He and Barnhizer get punished by this metric, since they are being made to handle the ball and they're turning it over often, with minimal assists.
5 turnovers, 1 assist, 0 steals for Barnhizer.
Barnhizer did a good job defensively on Michigan's Danny Wolf - but that doesn't show up here.
Meanwhile Leach was playing his best game of the season when he was intentionally kicked in the nuts by the refs. He shot the ball really well and was able to get to the rim several times. 5 assists, which is great when we only had 7 as a team, but thats offset by his 3 turnovers.
Matt Nicholson definitely played almost 36 minutes. He had 16 rebounds... at least according to the incompetent official scorer.
Lineup-wise, the starters (Nicholson/Martinelli/Barnhizer/Ciaravino/Leach) played 6 minutes together and won 9-8.
The old starters (Ty Berry in for Ciaravino) played almost 13 minutes together and outscored Michigan 27-22.
Nicholson/Martinelli/Barnhizer/Ciaravino/Berry got about 5:30 together and tied 9-9.
When Fitzmorris played with Martinelli/Barnhizer/Berry/Leach for 3:49, we outscored the Wolverines 9-7.
KJ Windham got 3 minutes with the A team after Leach was ejected, playing alongside Nicholson, Martinelli, Barnhizer and Berry. We got outscored 4-3 over that segment as Barnhizer turned the ball over twice, Ty Berry missed a 3-pointer on consecutive possessions and Martinelli missed a shot. The only time we scored was when Berry poked the ball away to Nicholson who got it back to Berry for a fastbreak layup. Regrettably, we took 10 seconds to get the ball across midcourt when Barnhizer rebounded a missed free throw, dribbled around then passed it to Martinelli near midcourt who passed it back to Windham facing a double team. Windham responded to that turnover with a brilliant steal, but Collins took him out with 6:17 to go - and that ended KJ's afternoon.
Hopefully Berry and Leach have some momentum going into the Indiana game.
Not sure what's going on with Justin Mullins, but I don't want to see Blake Smith playing in close games unless it is absolutely necessary.
