This was a tough game to watch. I thought NU had a shot to win at Mackey. I thought Purdue wasn't as good as their press clippings. I thought we could guard Braden Smith. Wrong on all accounts.
I decided to use the entire game, right until the moment Gus Hurlburt took the court with 19 seconds to play.
I should mention that I tweaked the calculation slightly. A missed shot was reduced from -0.8 to -0.7. An offensive rebound was likewise reduced from 0.8 to 0.7. I looked at universal stats across the NCAA and it is fair to say that the offense grabs 30% of the available rebounds, so a missed shot isn't as bad as I thought. I also tweaked the way that "performance points" are netted across the team.
Did we learn anything from this game? I always have said that you learn more about your team from a loss than a win. In this case, it felt like we were flailing.
We couldn't handle Braden Smith - so apparently there are going to be times when we can't stop the opposing point guard from doing whatever he wants to do.
Our strategy in those games will be to hope the other team plays poorly.
This reality seemed to really aggravate Coach Collins, but we did nothing to change our fate. Color me unimpressed.
The benching of Nicholson and Berry to open the 2nd half struck me as unwise, almost petty. The team did not respond. In fact, Nicholson checked out.
We have had one (ONE) productive lineup all year. It was (and remains) the starting 5. For the record, that group fell behind 11-3 in the first 5 minutes and finished the game down 16-5 in exactly 6:25.
It was odd to see such a lack of confidence in a group that has performed so well this year.
On the other end of the spectrum, Keenan Fitzmorris got 9 straight minutes of action, entering the contest with Purdue leading 65-39. He played all of those minutes with Windham and Ciaravino. NU outscored Purdue 22-14 over that time. The whole thing could be considered garbage time, I suppose. Martinelli's +/- improved 7 points and Barnhizer's improved 6 points because of that stretch.
Looking forward, it is unclear how Ciaravino and Windham should/will be used. It seems like teams will do "what Purdue did" and use 3 guys to guard Barnhizer and Martinelli. Since they both like to score inside, this presents a problem with Nicholson on the offensive end. That problem has existed all year, with no sign of improvement. The fact is that Nicholson is not a threat to score when Martinelli and Barnhizer have the ball in the paint. Its a painful combination of Nicholson not knowing what to do and Barnhizer and Martinelli not being good post passers when they are looking to score (in my opinion). Will we work on solving this? Or just write off the Purdue game as an anomaly?
One other reality is that teams won't be guarding Mullins unless he makes a shot or two. So it seems like that will force Collins to take minutes from Mullins and give them to Ciaravino who has no problem putting the ball up - and seems to have a knack for scoring.
Lastly, I think there is a case to be made that Windham is probably our quickest player and probably our best ballhandler. He has not been intimidated in 2 road games against two excellent guards (Baldwin and Smith). He's erratic on offense, but his improvement is going to force decisions with Leach and Berry... I hope.
Jalen Leach played pretty well against Purdue. He just couldn't keep up with Smith, so Collins benched him too, eventually.
The possibility of a successful Windham/Ciaravino backcourt should not be ignored. They have had practically no playing time with Nicholson/Martinelli/Barnhizer, but I am very curious as to how that lineup would do.
I decided to use the entire game, right until the moment Gus Hurlburt took the court with 19 seconds to play.
I should mention that I tweaked the calculation slightly. A missed shot was reduced from -0.8 to -0.7. An offensive rebound was likewise reduced from 0.8 to 0.7. I looked at universal stats across the NCAA and it is fair to say that the offense grabs 30% of the available rebounds, so a missed shot isn't as bad as I thought. I also tweaked the way that "performance points" are netted across the team.
| Player | Minutes | NU Pts | PU Pts | Raw +/- | Player +/- | Net +/- | Box Pts |
| Ciaravino | 20 | 39 | 36 | +3 | +4.29 | +4.89 | 9.90 |
| Fitzmorris | 9 | 22 | 14 | +8 | +0.31 | +1.91 | 3.00 |
| Barkley | 3 | 6 | 5 | +1 | +0.38 | +0.58 | 1.30 |
| Hunger | 17 | 23 | 32 | -9 | +1.23 | -0.57 | 2.70 |
| Leach | 22 | 28 | 52 | -24 | +3.82 | -0.98 | 5.60 |
| Windham | 19 | 35 | 27 | +8 | -2.99 | -1.39 | 0.90 |
| Mullins | 15 | 22 | 34 | -12 | -0.31 | -2.71 | 1.20 |
| Nicholson | 13 | 14 | 29 | -15 | -0.73 | -3.73 | -0.50 |
| Berry | 13 | 12 | 28 | -16 | -0.73 | -3.93 | -0.70 |
| Martinelli | 35 | 55 | 69 | -14 | -1.37 | -4.17 | 2.90 |
| Barnhizer | 34 | 49 | 69 | -20 | -3.90 | -7.90 | -0.15 |
Did we learn anything from this game? I always have said that you learn more about your team from a loss than a win. In this case, it felt like we were flailing.
We couldn't handle Braden Smith - so apparently there are going to be times when we can't stop the opposing point guard from doing whatever he wants to do.
Our strategy in those games will be to hope the other team plays poorly.
This reality seemed to really aggravate Coach Collins, but we did nothing to change our fate. Color me unimpressed.
The benching of Nicholson and Berry to open the 2nd half struck me as unwise, almost petty. The team did not respond. In fact, Nicholson checked out.
We have had one (ONE) productive lineup all year. It was (and remains) the starting 5. For the record, that group fell behind 11-3 in the first 5 minutes and finished the game down 16-5 in exactly 6:25.
It was odd to see such a lack of confidence in a group that has performed so well this year.
On the other end of the spectrum, Keenan Fitzmorris got 9 straight minutes of action, entering the contest with Purdue leading 65-39. He played all of those minutes with Windham and Ciaravino. NU outscored Purdue 22-14 over that time. The whole thing could be considered garbage time, I suppose. Martinelli's +/- improved 7 points and Barnhizer's improved 6 points because of that stretch.
Looking forward, it is unclear how Ciaravino and Windham should/will be used. It seems like teams will do "what Purdue did" and use 3 guys to guard Barnhizer and Martinelli. Since they both like to score inside, this presents a problem with Nicholson on the offensive end. That problem has existed all year, with no sign of improvement. The fact is that Nicholson is not a threat to score when Martinelli and Barnhizer have the ball in the paint. Its a painful combination of Nicholson not knowing what to do and Barnhizer and Martinelli not being good post passers when they are looking to score (in my opinion). Will we work on solving this? Or just write off the Purdue game as an anomaly?
One other reality is that teams won't be guarding Mullins unless he makes a shot or two. So it seems like that will force Collins to take minutes from Mullins and give them to Ciaravino who has no problem putting the ball up - and seems to have a knack for scoring.
Lastly, I think there is a case to be made that Windham is probably our quickest player and probably our best ballhandler. He has not been intimidated in 2 road games against two excellent guards (Baldwin and Smith). He's erratic on offense, but his improvement is going to force decisions with Leach and Berry... I hope.
Jalen Leach played pretty well against Purdue. He just couldn't keep up with Smith, so Collins benched him too, eventually.
The possibility of a successful Windham/Ciaravino backcourt should not be ignored. They have had practically no playing time with Nicholson/Martinelli/Barnhizer, but I am very curious as to how that lineup would do.
