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+/- for the Washout at Washington

PurpleWhiteBoy

Well-Known Member
Feb 25, 2021
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The sudden appearance of Jordan Clayton on the team messed up my analytics. (My spreadsheet is fixed personnel-wise once the rotation becomes clear)
Additionally the 4 free throws scored by Washington after Collins got ejected created a problem...
It wouldn't be fair to charge those 4 points against the players on the floor at the time, so I had to improvise.
Here's the table. It points out how things can go unnoticed during the game.

PlayerMinutesNU PtsWash PtsRaw +/-Player +/-Net +/-Box Pts
Martinelli386969*0+1.94+1.949.90
Nicholson294855-7+2.92+1.527.95
Mullins335862*-4+1.69+0.898.40
Ciaravino112514+11-1.76+0.441.10
Fitzmorris112317*+6-1.27-0.071.30
Berry346166*-5+0.58-0.427.00
Hunger305-5+0.50-0.50+0.05
Clayton264857*-9-0.45-2.254.40
Windham142315+8-4.15-2.55-1.40
Collins172232-10-4------
Lowery234944+5---------

* denotes 4 free throws removed from this players "points allowed."

So what jumps off the page? Well nobody starred in this game. Martinelli, Nicholson and Mullins played credibly..
Angelo Ciaravino was +11 in 11 minutes. KJ Windham was +8 in 14 minutes. Jordan Clayton was -9 in 26 minutes.

If you look at how well we scored and defended when each guy was playing, its gets interesting.
When Windham was on the floor we gave up 15 points in 14 minutes, we scored 23. Windham scored zero points.
When Ciaravino was on the court, we gave up 14 points in 11 minutes, we scored 25. Ciaravino scored 2 points.
When Clayton was on the court, we gave up 57 points in 26 minutes, we scored 48. Clayton scored 7 points.

So the data is suggesting (screaming?) we got annihilated defensively when Clayton was playing.
Washington is the least efficient offense in the Big Ten, by the way.

Keenan Fitzmorris deserves a nod for his minutes. His 23-17 in 11 minutes includes a 3 minute stint early in the game, where Coach Collins deployed Fitzmorris with Luke Hunger.
Unfortunately we got outscored 5-0 and that was it for the twin towers - and Hunger never played after that. The other three on the court for that experiment were Martinelli, Berry and Windham.

At halftime we were down 39-30.
We opened the 2nd half with Nicholson/Martinelli/Mullins/Berry/Clayton.
At the 17:11 mark, we were down 47-33 and Lowery subbed in Windham for Clayton.
After Windham missed a 3, he stole the ball on our end and casually winged a long pass to Ty Berry at the other end for a layup.
Lowery subbed in Fitzmorris for Nicholson and NU rallied with an 11-6 run over the next 4:25, with Mullins hitting two 3-pointers.
Then Lowery subbed Nicholson and Ciaravino back in for Fitzmorris ad Berry.
Nicholson/Martinelli/Ciaravino/Mullins/Windham allowed only 2 points over the next 4 minutes, scoring 6 and the Washington lead was 55-52 with 8 minutes to go.
Clayton and Berry replaced Windham and Ciaravino. (I did wince at Windham's removal, but "Gunner" Clayton immediately hit his 3-pointer)
The teams each scored 5 points over the 2:17 segment . Washington was still leading 60-57 with 5:50 to go.
Now Lowery replaced Mullins with Ciaravino and the Cats surged 9-2 to lead 66-62 with 3:41 to go.
Washington cut it to 66-65 with 2:55 to go, at which point Mullins came back in for Ciaravino.
Nicholson/Martinelli/Mullins/Berry/Clayton played the last 2:55 and we got beat 11-5.
Washington scored 10 points in 4 possessions before making 1 of 2 free throws with 5 seconds left.

And we lost a game we should win.

A few tidbits from the game...

Mullins/Nicholson got outscored 52-39 in 25:28
Nicholson/Ciaravino outscored UW 16-9 in 8:27.
Mullins/Clayton got outscored 52-39 in about 23 minutes.
Mullins/Windham outscored UW 19-10 in 10:14.

The lineups that we all expected to see (Nicholson/Martinelli/Windham and some combination of Berry, Ciaravino and Mullins)
played a whopping total of 5:31 and won 12-2.

And some of us were pretty annoyed.
 
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The sudden appearance of Jordan Clayton on the team messed up my analytics. (My spreadsheet is fixed personnel-wise once the rotation becomes clear)
Additionally the 4 free throws scored by Washington after Collins got ejected created a problem...
It wouldn't be fair to charge those 4 points against the players on the floor at the time, so I had to improvise.
Here's the table. It points out how things can go unnoticed during the game.

PlayerMinutesNU PtsWash PtsRaw +/-Player +/-Net +/-Box Pts
Martinelli386969*0+1.94+1.949.90
Nicholson294855-7+2.92+1.527.95
Mullins335862*-4+1.69+0.898.40
Ciaravino112514+11-1.76+0.441.10
Fitzmorris112317*+6-1.27-0.071.30
Berry346166*-5+0.58-0.427.00
Hunger305-5+0.50-0.50+0.05
Clayton264857*-9-0.45-2.254.40
Windham142315+8-4.15-2.55-1.40
Collins172232-10-4------
Lowery234944+5---------

* denotes 4 free throws removed from this players "points allowed."

So what jumps off the page? Well nobody starred in this game. Martinelli, Nicholson and Mullins played credibly..
Angelo Ciaravino was +11 in 11 minutes. KJ Windham was +8 in 14 minutes. Jordan Clayton was -9 in 26 minutes.

If you look at how well we scored and defended when each guy was playing, its gets interesting.
When Windham was on the floor we gave up 15 points in 14 minutes, we scored 23. Windham scored zero points.
When Ciaravino was on the court, we gave up 14 points in 11 minutes, we scored 25. Ciaravino scored 2 points.
When Clayton was on the court, we gave up 57 points in 26 minutes, we scored 48. Clayton scored 7 points.

So the data is suggesting (screaming?) we got annihilated defensively when Clayton was playing.
Washington is the least efficient offense in the Big Ten, by the way.

Keenan Fitzmorris deserves a nod for his minutes. His 23-17 in 11 minutes includes a 3 minute stint early in the game, where Coach Collins deployed Fitzmorris with Luke Hunger.
Unfortunately we got outscored 5-0 and that was it for the twin towers - and Hunger never played after that. The other three on the court for that experiment were Martinelli, Berry and Windham.

At halftime we were down 39-30.
We opened the 2nd half with Nicholson/Martinelli/Mullins/Berry/Clayton.
At the 17:11 mark, we were down 47-33 and Lowery subbed in Windham for Clayton.
After Windham missed a 3, he stole the ball on our end and casually winged a long pass to Ty Berry at the other end for a layup.
Lowery subbed in Fitzmorris for Nicholson and NU rallied with an 11-6 run over the next 4:25, with Mullins hitting two 3-pointers.
Then Lowery subbed Nicholson and Ciaravino back in for Fitzmorris ad Berry.
Nicholson/Martinelli/Ciaravino/Mullins/Windham allowed only 2 points over the next 4 minutes, scoring 6 and the Washington lead was 55-52 with 8 minutes to go.
Clayton and Berry replaced Windham and Ciaravino. (I did wince at Windham's removal, but "Gunner" Clayton immediately hit his 3-pointer)
The teams each scored 5 points over the 2:17 segment . Washington was still leading 60-57 with 5:50 to go.
Now Lowery replaced Mullins with Ciaravino and the Cats surged 9-2 to lead 66-62 with 3:41 to go.
Washington cut it to 66-65 with 2:55 to go, at which point Mullins came back in for Ciaravino.
Nicholson/Martinelli/Mullins/Berry/Clayton played the last 2:55 and we got beat 11-5.
Washington scored 10 points in 4 possessions before making 1 of 2 free throws with 5 seconds left.

And we lost a game we should win.

A few tidbits from the game...

Mullins/Nicholson got outscored 52-39 in 25:28
Nicholson/Ciaravino outscored UW 16-9 in 8:27.
Mullins/Clayton got outscored 52-39 in about 23 minutes.
Mullins/Windham outscored UW 19-10 in 10:14.

The lineups that we all expected to see (Nicholson/Martinelli/Windham and some combination of Berry, Ciaravino and Mullins)
played a whopping total of 5:31 and won 12-2.

And some of us were pretty annoyed.
Where’s the Wizard versus CCC comparison you teased us with? Did the Wizard make the same poor rotational decisions that CCC makes every game or were we better off? Maybe the Wizard had an ear piece in with CCC’s instruction piped in to insure he did similar things?
 
Where’s the Wizard versus CCC comparison you teased us with? Did the Wizard make the same poor rotational decisions that CCC makes every game or were we better off? Maybe the Wizard had an ear piece in with CCC’s instruction piped in to insure he did similar things?

I don't think that was why we lost.
We lost because we got torched defensively when Clayton played.
Maybe he'll get better.
 
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