Honest goals

[MC_Cat]

Make the Big Ten Tournament, get a W and play in the NIT. That would be a decent send-off for our super seniors and give meaningful competition to the returnees for next year.

The fact that we have lost to every team below or next to us in the standings excepting Gophers makes me nervous though. Losses against Penn St, Iowa and now Washington really hurt. Iowa we get another crack at but those 2 above plus Rutgers are our only regular season meetings.

Indiana and USC you have to figure will win some more so our advantage over them may not even come into play.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Make the Big Ten Tournament, get a W and play in the NIT. That would be a decent send-off for our super seniors and give meaningful competition to the returnees for next year.

The fact that we have lost to every team below or next to us in the standings excepting Gophers makes me nervous though. Losses against Penn St, Iowa and now Washington really hurt. Iowa we get another crack at but those 2 above plus Rutgers are our only regular season meetings.

Indiana and USC you have to figure will win some more so our advantage over them may not even come into play.

That would be incredible under the circumstances. I can’t see us winning more than 1 more. Even if we get in the B1G tourney, we are one and done. I don’t have much interest in the NiT.

 

[SmellyCat]

Right now I’m just rooting for Martinelli to win the b10 scoring title (he’s in the lead!). Any wins are a bonus.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

My honest goals were to get to 7 or even 8 wins and make the BTT. Last night was one we really needed, TBH. We still get Minnesota and we get a couple more winnable ones at home, but it's a tough road.

Winning even a couple more to avoid just a total gross finish would be nice. 2 wins with some development and gelling from the young guys with everybody entering the offseason healthy would be a big win. If Mullins can continue to shoot well, like over 35%, from outside for the rest of the year now THAT would be mighty fine as well. A game changer for him as a contributor, TBH. I feel bad for Ty and Matt, it's gonna be a rough finish to their careers on the court that they don't deserve.

 

[NUera]

I don’t have much interest in the NiT.

How far we’ve come since the days of Kevin O’Neil…

 

[GatoLouco]

I want the Cats to beat Nebraska. Why Nebraska? Because that will be my yearly pilgrimage to the WR. I have never seen NU loose at the new WR. Not this year satan, not this year.

 

[Catreporter]

Hoiberg has never won at Welsh-Ryan, so there is that Gato...but Nebraska is playing very well right now. My goal for the Cats is to win at least ONCE more. Loss at Washington was a shame after that comeback. Key moment for me was Martinelli trying to go over a triple team with Clayton wide open on the wing and the Cats up two. Love his aggressiveness there but that was a time to pass.. I think Iowa at home may be our best chance for a win going forward, but who knows.

 

[NUCat320]

It’s not fun to be losing, but it’s fun to see the silhouette of an interesting team next year.

Running the table at home is a possibility. Playing at Minnesota is a downer. Maryland will have something to play for in the regular season finale.

Minnesota is headed into their two West Coast road games tonight. Ideally the time change and superior athletes give them an 0 and 2.

Life’s gotten busy and I haven’t seen much in the way of full games lately. But it was neat to see Windham with full confidence last night.

Ty needs 38 three-pointers to tie Shurna and 40 to tie Juice for third-place all time. He looks so confident — he expects every one to go in. Let Ty cook.

 

[Deeringfish]

My honest goals were to get to 7 or even 8 wins and make the BTT. Last night was one we really needed, TBH. We still get Minnesota and we get a couple more winnable ones at home, but it's a tough road.

Winning even a couple more to avoid just a total gross finish would be nice. 2 wins with some development and gelling from the young guys with everybody entering the offseason healthy would be a big win. If Mullins can continue to shoot well, like over 35%, from outside for the rest of the year now THAT would be mighty fine as well. A game changer for him as a contributor, TBH. I feel bad for Ty and Matt, it's gonna be a rough finish to their careers on the court that they don't deserve.

I feel really bad for them too but last year's collapse it was their injuries that sunk the ship. So they also know the other side of the story and the support they received. It happens, and it is not really anyone's fault.

 

[loyolacat]

most successful seasons recently have been lead by dominate point guard, Mac and Boo. By the end of this year I would like to know if Windham, Ciaravino or Clayton can be a dominate lead guard ? Can Mullins fit into the lineup next year? The remainder of this year has become almost tryouts for next year and a chance to develop your shopping list (I hate saying that)

 

[Davidgolds5]

most successful seasons recently have been lead by dominate point guard, Mac and Boo. By the end of this year I would like to know if Windham, Ciaravino or Clayton can be a dominate lead guard ? Can Mullins fit into the lineup next year? The remainder of this year has become almost tryouts for next year and a chance to develop your shopping list (I hate saying that)

Clayton answered that question…..last year.

 

[PURPLECAT88]

Clayton answered that question…..last year.

No one answers that question negatively as a freshman.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

most successful seasons recently have been lead by dominate point guard, Mac and Boo. By the end of this year I would like to know if Windham, Ciaravino or Clayton can be a dominate lead guard ? Can Mullins fit into the lineup next year? The remainder of this year has become almost tryouts for next year and a chance to develop your shopping list (I hate saying that)

We certainly know Ciaravino is not a dominant lead guard. He can't handle the ball like Windham.
I like Angelo a lot and wish we'd see much more of him because he's quite the athlete, but he's a small forward in my book.
Or a 3 if you prefer.

 

[Davidgolds5]

No one answers that question negatively as a freshman.

a freshman may struggle because of a jump up in class versus high school ball, but a fan can still determine if their is potential. It’s just not going to happen with Clayton. I think everyone just assumed a transfer was imminent after this season, and that would have been the cats best case scenario. The bar is SO low, that any performance not a disaster is considered decent.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

a freshman may struggle because of a jump up in class versus high school ball, but a fan can still determine if their is potential. It’s just not going to happen with Clayton. I think everyone just assumed a transfer was imminent after this season, and that would have been the cats best case scenario. The bar is SO low, that any performance not a disaster is considered decent.

Did you watch Big Matt his first year?

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Did you watch Big Matt his first year?

I think you mean his 2nd year. Nobody got to see Big Matt his first year. Except relatives, teammates and coaches.

 

[Secho99]

Make the Big Ten Tournament, get a W and play in the NIT. That would be a decent send-off for our super seniors and give meaningful competition to the returnees for next year.

The fact that we have lost to every team below or next to us in the standings excepting Gophers makes me nervous though. Losses against Penn St, Iowa and now Washington really hurt. Iowa we get another crack at but those 2 above plus Rutgers are our only regular season meetings.

Indiana and USC you have to figure will win some more so our advantage over them may not even come into play.

Looking at the standings now, we likely have to win 3 of the last 5 to make the BTT. Minnesota winning both games in LA was a big blow for our chances. If we beat Iowa and Minny but lose the other 3, it's not outside of the realm of possibility but still probably slim.

What's wild is that if any 3 of the Butler, Iowa, PSU, Michigan, Washington or Dayton games had fallen our way we'd probably be on the NCAA tournament bubble even with everything else that's happened lately. Indiana is on the bubble now with 11 losses. Oklahoma is on the bubble with a 3-10 SEC record.

Another interesting thing: We currently have the highest KenPom ranking (58) of any team in the country that isn't above .500 overall. We've been again victimized by the dreaded "luck" rating that has often plagued Collins teams, ranking 344th of 364 teams. The luck rating is just the difference in actual record and the expected record of a team with our offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. We "should" have 15.4 wins and actually have 13. Obviously there are no fractional wins but it demonstrates the point above that we've been in many close games that haven't gone our way (but we've also won 3 OT games, which shows that it could be even worse).

All of this is to say that we don't suck, we just play in a brutal league and have let too many winnable games slip away. The margins are so slim that a few possessions over the course of the season are the difference between possibly being on the bubble and likely not even making the conference tournament (knowing of course that if we were actually like 16-10 there would still be the same dim prognosis for the last 5 games without Brooks/Leach).

 

[TheC]

All of this is to say that we don't suck, we just play in a brutal league and have let too many winnable games slip away.

At what point is this luck and at what point is this part of a team's culture? It feels like good teams pull out these close games more often and mediocre to bad teams find a way to blow them, but like I said, it just "feels" that way. I was actually surprised the other week after we blew the Washington game that our record in < 5 point games was better than I thought. However, we are still sub .500 in these games, so is that luck or is it that we are a mediocre team (due in large part to all the injuries)? Are good teams more confident down the stretch and so perform better whereas mediocre to bad teams get tight? Is it that we have the talent to battle for most of the game, but in crunch time, we lack that alpha male to go get a bucket this year the way Boo did for us last year? Is it none of those things, and simply just a mathematical reality that mediocre teams don't win as many games by larger margins, so we end up in all these close games? I guess we get some credit for not getting blown out very often, which is likely due to our slower style on offense and our tough defense.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Looking at the standings now, we likely have to win 3 of the last 5 to make the BTT. Minnesota winning both games in LA was a big blow for our chances. If we beat Iowa and Minny but lose the other 3, it's not outside of the realm of possibility but still probably slim.

What's wild is that if any 3 of the Butler, Iowa, PSU, Michigan, Washington or Dayton games had fallen our way we'd probably be on the NCAA tournament bubble even with everything else that's happened lately. Indiana is on the bubble now with 11 losses. Oklahoma is on the bubble with a 3-10 SEC record.

Another interesting thing: We currently have the highest KenPom ranking (58) of any team in the country that isn't above .500 overall. We've been again victimized by the dreaded "luck" rating that has often plagued Collins teams, ranking 344th of 364 teams. The luck rating is just the difference in actual record and the expected record of a team with our offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. We "should" have 15.4 wins and actually have 13. Obviously there are no fractional wins but it demonstrates the point above that we've been in many close games that haven't gone our way (but we've also won 3 OT games, which shows that it could be even worse).

All of this is to say that we don't suck, we just play in a brutal league and have let too many winnable games slip away. The margins are so slim that a few possessions over the course of the season are the difference between possibly being on the bubble and likely not even making the conference tournament (knowing of course that if we were actually like 16-10 there would still be the same dim prognosis for the last 5 games without Brooks/Leach).

At this point, what’s the big deal about making the BTT? In the big picture if things, I don’t think it matters all that much,

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Just to recap...
Barnhizer was shut down prior to the Wisconsin game

Wisconsin. NU led 44-35 with 14:40 to play. NU lost 75-69.
USC. NU led 59-44 with 10:01 to play. Leach got hurt with about 5 minutes to go. NU won 77-75.
@Washington. NU led 66-62 with 3:41 to go. NU lost 76-71.
@Oregon. NU trailed by 12 at half, got within 5 at 5:12, but could get no closer in losing 81-75.
Nebraska. NU led 50-32 with 15:31 to play. Nebraska outscored us 22-4 to tie the game with 6:05 to go. NU lost 68-64.

 

[GatoLouco]

At this point, what’s the big deal about making the BTT? In the big picture if things, I don’t think it matters all that much,

The big deal is that I get to see my beloved cats in good seats, once more, for close to no money.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

The big deal is that I get to see my beloved cats in good seats, once more, for close to no money.

Forgot you lived out there

 

[MC_Cat]

At this point, what’s the big deal about making the BTT? In the big picture if things, I don’t think it matters all that much,

To me, it's the fact that you still have a chance, one-and-done do or die and this team is still showing it can hang with good teams. The other is pride in avoiding the ignominy of not even making the BTT in the expanded conference.

 

[Secho99]

At this point, what’s the big deal about making the BTT? In the big picture if things, I don’t think it matters all that much,

I think there’s value in at least appearing at the league’s flagship event and potentially win a game. And at this point making the BTT would require winning enough games that we’d probably be considered for further postseason play.

I know the odds are long but as a fan I’d like to see the team have something to play for. We’re struggling right now for good reason but we’re not some total disaster like Miami.

 

[Secho99]

At what point is this luck and at what point is this part of a team's culture? It feels like good teams pull out these close games more often and mediocre to bad teams find a way to blow them, but like I said, it just "feels" that way. I was actually surprised the other week after we blew the Washington game that our record in < 5 point games was better than I thought. However, we are still sub .500 in these games, so is that luck or is it that we are a mediocre team (due in large part to all the injuries)? Are good teams more confident down the stretch and so perform better whereas mediocre to bad teams get tight? Is it that we have the talent to battle for most of the game, but in crunch time, we lack that alpha male to go get a bucket this year the way Boo did for us last year? Is it none of those things, and simply just a mathematical reality that mediocre teams don't win as many games by larger margins, so we end up in all these close games? I guess we get some credit for not getting blown out very often, which is likely due to our slower style on offense and our tough defense.

Well in the context of the B1G we are a mediocre to bad team. Even at full strength probably still in the mediocre category. A competent basketball team, but one that can play up or down to the competition every night. And that lead to a lot of variance in results. It would be nice if we were 20 points better than some decent teams for 40 minutes but that isn’t really what’s happening, we either get way behind and have a too-little-too-late rally or we get way ahead and let it slip away.

Boo was first-team All B1G, we don’t have those kinds of guys very often so yeah we don’t have that kind of option to go to. A fully healthy Brooks would’ve been close to that kind of guy. We shouldn’t forget that Nick made 2 big game-winning shots for us, but I don’t think he’s the “get out of the way and let him cook” type late in the game like Boo could be.

 

[Catreporter]

We are going to finish dead last this year. That's how small the margin of error is for a lot of mid-pack teams. Let's not forget that we lost TWO starters to season ending injuries last year and still finished strong, even upsetting a previous year Final Four team in round one. But, this team didn't have the depth that one did.

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

Well in the context of the B1G we are a mediocre to bad team. Even at full strength probably still in the mediocre category. A competent basketball team, but one that can play up or down to the competition every night. And that lead to a lot of variance in results. It would be nice if we were 20 points better than some decent teams for 40 minutes but that isn’t really what’s happening, we either get way behind and have a too-little-too-late rally or we get way ahead and let it slip away.

Boo was first-team All B1G, we don’t have those kinds of guys very often so yeah we don’t have that kind of option to go to. A fully healthy Brooks would’ve been close to that kind of guy. We shouldn’t forget that Nick made 2 big game-winning shots for us, but I don’t think he’s the “get out of the way and let him cook” type late in the game like Boo could be.

Off topic - I remember you said you were going to the Oregon game and when they are not playing Northwestern you root for them? Were you the guy on TV with the Oregon hat and the Northwestern sweatshirt?

Back on topic - my theory on NU hoops is Collins is a great coach to bring the Cats to a level of sustained competitiveness. It remains to be seen if he can win consistently at that competitive level without a killer point guard. This is a challenge when you can't out-athlete your opponent but have to rely on scheme and discipline.

Collins's team have sustained runs within games, but somehow the opponent adjusts, the Cats change their approach to shorten the game, or they just get tired. Things get tight and snowball. I know he's a dozen years into his tenure but this is where he needs to develop further as a coach.

 

[Catreporter]

Depth is huge and I remember Bill Carmody telling me that was his achilles heel here. This year, the recruiting misses of two years ago really stood out. When two of our big guns went down, we had no one that could come close to replacing their production. Next year's class is a step in the right direction but this rebuild is likely to take time, I fear. Still with three NCAA appearances to build on, l am hopeful fans will show some patience and keep supporting Chris and the team.

 

[Secho99]

Off topic - I remember you said you were going to the Oregon game and when they are not playing Northwestern you root for them? Were you the guy on TV with the Oregon hat and the Northwestern sweatshirt?

Unfortunately I had a family emergency come up just as I was about to drive to the game. All is fine now but I had to miss the game and watch later on TV. I remember seeing that guy on TV though.

And yes I am a Duck fan, I just finished watching them hold on to win at Iowa 80-78. Josh Dix got a look from 3 to win it (which looked familiar) but this time Oregon 7-footer Nate Bittle got a piece of the shot and it came up well short.

Back on topic - my theory on NU hoops is Collins is a great coach to bring the Cats to a level of sustained competitiveness. It remains to be seen if he can win consistently at that competitive level without a killer point guard. This is a challenge when you can't out-athlete your opponent but have to rely on scheme and discipline.

We’ve made the tournament 3 times and had a star PG all 3 times, so that seems to be a key part of it. Maybe Jake West is going to be that guy, maybe KJ can be that guy.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Off topic - I remember you said you were going to the Oregon game and when they are not playing Northwestern you root for them? Were you the guy on TV with the Oregon hat and the Northwestern sweatshirt?

Back on topic - my theory on NU hoops is Collins is a great coach to bring the Cats to a level of sustained competitiveness. It remains to be seen if he can win consistently at that competitive level without a killer point guard. This is a challenge when you can't out-athlete your opponent but have to rely on scheme and discipline.

Collins's team have sustained runs within games, but somehow the opponent adjusts, the Cats change their approach to shorten the game, or they just get tired. Things get tight and snowball. I know he's a dozen years into his tenure but this is where he needs to develop further as a coach.

You don’t need a star point guard, but you do need at least adequate point guard play with some depth. It would help if we had some inside scoring presence as well. Recently, we have had good depth at wing and off guard. Bottom line get enough good players and figure it out. If we stayed healthy we have a legitimate shot at the tourney. This team battles hard. There just aren’t enough horses in the barn to have a winning record.

 

[TheC]

You don’t need a star point guard, but you do need at least adequate point guard play with some depth. It would help if we had some inside scoring presence as well. Recently, we have had good depth at wing and off guard. Bottom line get enough good players and figure it out. If we stayed healthy we have a legitimate shot at the tourney. This team battles hard. There just aren’t enough horses in the barn to have a winning record.

I think point guard in the traditional sense of someone who can bring the ball up the court and start the offense is maybe not what we're missing. What we're missing is someone who has good handles and quickness who can penetrate the lane and create a shot for themselves or others. That is often your point guard, but it doesn't have to be. Brooks and Nick are scorers, but they are very slow and deliberate. They don't really disrupt the defense and create for others the way Boo and BMac before him did. When Boo got into the lane, that tear drop shot was lethal and he could score with it in a hurry. Brooks and Nick back their guy in slowly, slowly and it is easier in crunch time to just sell out and double team them.

 

[GatoLouco]

The reference to needing a clear PG to win keeps coming up over and over again. It's understandable, we all try to find common traits of what worked and what did not to explain it.

Some thoughts:

• BMac was a traditional pass first, make the offense run PG
• Boo was a score first PG
• BMac was almost 100% of the time the guy handling the ball down the court and starting the offense
• Boo often deferred handling the ball to others, especially last year where we saw Barnhizer doing it and Boo playing off the ball
• BMac was an organizer of the offense
• Boo was a disrupter, a "I'll bail you out" of the offense

If you want to find common traits I think you'll find them more in leadership.

Finally, I continue to believe this year's team, if fully healthy, was a tournament caliber team. No clear PG, just combo guards in 1-2 Leach, a 1-3 combo in Barnhizer and even a 1-4 in Martinelli.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Last year we had
Nicholson, Barnhizer, Langborg, Berry, Buie
the bench was Hunger, Preston and Martinelli
Mullins only played 98 minutes, Clayton played 199 minutes, Blake Smith played 154 minutes.

This year we had
Nicholson, Barnhizer, Berry, Leach, Martinelli
the bench was Hunger, Fitzmorris, Ciaravino, Mullins and Windham

In other words, last year we had 3 centers, just like we do this year.
Martinelli was the entire bench last year.

Roster-wise we traded Buie and Langborg for Leach, Windham and Ciaravino.

 

[CatJones]

Last year we had
Nicholson, Barnhizer, Langborg, Berry, Buie
the bench was Hunger, Preston and Martinelli
Mullins only played 98 minutes, Clayton played 199 minutes, Blake Smith played 154 minutes.

This year we had
Nicholson, Barnhizer, Berry, Leach, Martinelli
the bench was Hunger, Fitzmorris, Ciaravino, Mullins and Windham

In other words, last year we had 3 centers, just like we do this year.
Martinelli was the entire bench last year.

Roster-wise we traded Buie and Langborg for Leach, Windham and Ciaravino.

We also traded Martinelli for a better version of Martinelli, and Barnhizer and Berry for worse versions of themselves (due to injury).

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Last year we had
Nicholson, Barnhizer, Langborg, Berry, Buie
the bench was Hunger, Preston and Martinelli
Mullins only played 98 minutes, Clayton played 199 minutes, Blake Smith played 154 minutes.

This year we had
Nicholson, Barnhizer, Berry, Leach, Martinelli
the bench was Hunger, Fitzmorris, Ciaravino, Mullins and Windham

In other words, last year we had 3 centers, just like we do this year.
Martinelli was the entire bench last year.

Roster-wise we traded Buie and Langborg for Leach, Windham and Ciaravino.

We also traded Martinelli for a better version of Martinelli, and Barnhizer and Berry for worse versions of themselves (due to injury).

What’s the point?