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How '24-'25 is looking at this point...

macarthur31

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Nov 10, 2006
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Guards: Ty Berry and Jalen Leach will likely be the starting backcourt. Jordan Clayton hopefully makes that improvement from frosh to soph year to be a capable sub providing 10-15 minutes. If KJ Windham or Angelo Ciaravino crack this rotation, I'm hoping it's because either of them made the leap. I'm sure they'll get looks in the non-con.

Wings: If Blake Barnhizer can stay healthy, he will be our All-B1G at the 3. I'd prefer him staying at the 3 because he'll have the size advantage posting up on the block, and will reduce the wear and tear on him guarding rugged 4s. I know Barnzo likes to play - but I'd love to see him get 30 minutes a game rather than 38 - hopefully Blake Smith and Justin Mullins can improve enough to invite Coach Collins to exercise the former. With regards to the 4 - it'd be phenomenal if Martinelli could get his catch and shoot 3FG around 35% to complement his booty ball game. Best case scenario is that Blake Barkley forces his way into the lineup, and grab 10-12 minutes as a high energy sub. If not, I expect Barnzo to spend some time at the 4, and Collins will go with Smith/Mullins for those backup SF minutes.

Center: Three headed monster of Matty Nix - Luke Hunger - Keenan Fitzmorris. I expect Nix to be the nominal starter, but then Collins will mix and match depending on the opponent. If Hunger can get stronger over the summer, maybe he snatches that starter spot. Either way, Fitzmorris raises the floor for the team of being a very capable veteran pivot who is likely best utilized at 10-12 minutes, but if needed could give 20-24 minutes in case of Nix/Hunger foul trouble.

Yes, they are missing the once-in-a-generation Boo Buie. However, what remains is a very seasoned team that will not be fun to play and has a shot at a 3rd straight tourney bid.
 
Wings: If Blake Barnhizer can stay healthy, he will be our All-B1G at the 3.
So now Brooks is "a guy named Blake"?

 
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Guards: Ty Berry and Jalen Leach will likely be the starting backcourt. Jordan Clayton hopefully makes that improvement from frosh to soph year to be a capable sub providing 10-15 minutes. If KJ Windham or Angelo Ciaravino crack this rotation, I'm hoping it's because either of them made the leap. I'm sure they'll get looks in the non-con.

Wings: If Blake Barnhizer can stay healthy, he will be our All-B1G at the 3. I'd prefer him staying at the 3 because he'll have the size advantage posting up on the block, and will reduce the wear and tear on him guarding rugged 4s. I know Barnzo likes to play - but I'd love to see him get 30 minutes a game rather than 38 - hopefully Blake Smith and Justin Mullins can improve enough to invite Coach Collins to exercise the former. With regards to the 4 - it'd be phenomenal if Martinelli could get his catch and shoot 3FG around 35% to complement his booty ball game. Best case scenario is that Blake Barkley forces his way into the lineup, and grab 10-12 minutes as a high energy sub. If not, I expect Barnzo to spend some time at the 4, and Collins will go with Smith/Mullins for those backup SF minutes.

Center: Three headed monster of Matty Nix - Luke Hunger - Keenan Fitzmorris. I expect Nix to be the nominal starter, but then Collins will mix and match depending on the opponent. If Hunger can get stronger over the summer, maybe he snatches that starter spot. Either way, Fitzmorris raises the floor for the team of being a very capable veteran pivot who is likely best utilized at 10-12 minutes, but if needed could give 20-24 minutes in case of Nix/Hunger foul trouble.

Yes, they are missing the once-in-a-generation Boo Buie. However, what remains is a very seasoned team that will not be fun to play and has a shot at a 3rd straight tourney bid.
Insightful analysis. Enjoyed the read.

I would not mind us getting a 6'8 wing in the portal. Can be a 6-8 ppg guy. It's not just about shiny 20 ppg dudes. Chemistry, balance matter.

Barnhizer can start as the 3 and initiate offense often. We get better on switches and with mismatches.
 
So now Brooks is "a guy named Blake"?

That's my Freudian slip wish for Blake Smith's improvement next year, and hopefully not Brook Barnhizer's regression.
 
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With the new big man, I'll be interested to see if Hunger gets minutes at the 4. He was willing shooter of the three (if not particularly able one), and with him and MN on the boards we could be great on the glass.
 
With the new big man, I'll be interested to see if Hunger gets minutes at the 4. He was willing shooter of the three (if not particularly able one), and with him and MN on the boards we could be great on the glass.
Hunger’s development is a huge wild card for this team. How much does he develop and which of his skills develop most?
 
Hunger’s development is a huge wild card for this team. How much does he develop and which of his skills develop most?
I'd like to see him perfect his chest-bumping like he effectively practiced vs the fau Russian dude. This might be the gold standard of a patented move/shot that will determine how we get back to ncaa tourney for 3rd year in a row
 
Hunger’s development is a huge wild card for this team. How much does he develop and which of his skills develop most?

If he can shoot the three in the mid-30s, that would open things up for everyone else and allow us to play five-out with a big man on the floor. But that may be too much to ask given he shot 20% last year on low volume.
 
With the new big man, I'll be interested to see if Hunger gets minutes at the 4. He was willing shooter of the three (if not particularly able one), and with him and MN on the boards we could be great on the glass.
Yeah, Hunger has some agility that suggests he could be a 4. However, I kinda like Martinelli at the 4 - but perhaps they could platoon together and a by product is that you have a true 7 foot platoon at the 5 with Nix/Fitz. At this moment I'm not seein' it, but could be something to track this summer.
 
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Yeah, Hunger has some agility that suggests he could be a 4. However, I kinda like Martinelli at the 4 - but perhaps they could platoon together and a by product is that you have a true 7 foot platoon at the 5 with Nix/Fitz. At this moment I'm not seein' it, but could be something to track this summer.
Hunger even having the ability to play the 4 would give CCC the option of having a pretty huge lineup with Hunger at the 4 plus one of the two seven footers, plus the Cats other good size at the 2 and 3. It would also allow Fitzsimmon to play more if he’s a real weapon.
 
I'd like to see him perfect his chest-bumping like he effectively practiced vs the fau Russian dude. This might be the gold standard of a patented move/shot that will determine how we get back to ncaa tourney for 3rd year in a row
He's going to get a bit more practice since fau Russian dude is transferring to Michgag now.
 
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To me, Mullins is one of the bigger variables for next year's team and what we may or may not still need in the portal. If he can be a reliable contributor off the bench and give us a quality 10-20 mpg, then I think we're pretty solid at the wing position. If not, then we need another 6'6"ish guy who can provide depth to Barnhizer and Martinelli.
 
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To me, Mullins is one of the bigger variables for next year's team and what we may or may not still need in the portal. If he can be a solid contributor off the bench and give us a quality 10-20 mpg, then I think we're pretty solid at the wing position. If not, then we need another 6'6"ish guy who can provide depth to Barnhizer and Martinelli.
Spot on. He's a potential key contributor if he has a good offseason.
 
Guards: Ty Berry and Jalen Leach will likely be the starting backcourt. Jordan Clayton hopefully makes that improvement from frosh to soph year to be a capable sub providing 10-15 minutes. If KJ Windham or Angelo Ciaravino crack this rotation, I'm hoping it's because either of them made the leap. I'm sure they'll get looks in the non-con.

Wings: If Blake Barnhizer can stay healthy, he will be our All-B1G at the 3. I'd prefer him staying at the 3 because he'll have the size advantage posting up on the block, and will reduce the wear and tear on him guarding rugged 4s. I know Barnzo likes to play - but I'd love to see him get 30 minutes a game rather than 38 - hopefully Blake Smith and Justin Mullins can improve enough to invite Coach Collins to exercise the former. With regards to the 4 - it'd be phenomenal if Martinelli could get his catch and shoot 3FG around 35% to complement his booty ball game. Best case scenario is that Blake Barkley forces his way into the lineup, and grab 10-12 minutes as a high energy sub. If not, I expect Barnzo to spend some time at the 4, and Collins will go with Smith/Mullins for those backup SF minutes.

Center: Three headed monster of Matty Nix - Luke Hunger - Keenan Fitzmorris. I expect Nix to be the nominal starter, but then Collins will mix and match depending on the opponent. If Hunger can get stronger over the summer, maybe he snatches that starter spot. Either way, Fitzmorris raises the floor for the team of being a very capable veteran pivot who is likely best utilized at 10-12 minutes, but if needed could give 20-24 minutes in case of Nix/Hunger foul trouble.

Yes, they are missing the once-in-a-generation Boo Buie. However, what remains is a very seasoned team that will not be fun to play and has a shot at a 3rd straight tourney bid.
Has CCC ever spread minutes around that much?
 
To me, Mullins is one of the bigger variables for next year's team and what we may or may not still need in the portal. If he can be a reliable contributor off the bench and give us a quality 10-20 mpg, then I think we're pretty solid at the wing position. If not, then we need another 6'6"ish guy who can provide depth to Barnhizer and Martinelli.
With any luck, one of the freshmen might be that depth piece.
 
Has CCC ever spread minutes around that much?
Players that were above 50 %Min last 6 years

In '24: Buie logged 90.5 %Min, Barnhizer 90.0, Langborg 76.9, Martinelli 63.8 (Ty Berry, 49.6)
In '23: Buie logged 86.5 %Min, Audige 85.1, Berry 69.9, Beran 63.7, Barnhizer 60.7, Nicholson 52.2
In '22: Buie, 73.5, Nance 65.2, Berry 54.4, Beran, 53.9, Audige 51.4
In '21: Kopp 78.3, Audige 69.8, Nance 69.0, Buie 67.1,
In '20: Kopp 80, Spencer 72.6, Young 64.1, Nance 63, AJ Turner 58.6, Buie 51.9
In '19: Pardon 81.9, Law 77.7, Turner 74,.0, Gaines 67.9, Taylor 65.0

What I'm gleaning is that if there's an obvious starter in role, Collins is gonna ride 'em as long as they're willing to be run (barring they experience foul trouble). However if there is less of a difference between starter and backup, there seems to be more equitable distribution. Maybe Clayton doesn't get 10-15 next year per game, but I don't know if Ty Berry is gonna play 90% of the minutes.
 
Players that were above 50 %Min last 6 years

In '24: Buie logged 90.5 %Min, Barnhizer 90.0, Langborg 76.9, Martinelli 63.8 (Ty Berry, 49.6)
In '23: Buie logged 86.5 %Min, Audige 85.1, Berry 69.9, Beran 63.7, Barnhizer 60.7, Nicholson 52.2
In '22: Buie, 73.5, Nance 65.2, Berry 54.4, Beran, 53.9, Audige 51.4
In '21: Kopp 78.3, Audige 69.8, Nance 69.0, Buie 67.1,
In '20: Kopp 80, Spencer 72.6, Young 64.1, Nance 63, AJ Turner 58.6, Buie 51.9
In '19: Pardon 81.9, Law 77.7, Turner 74,.0, Gaines 67.9, Taylor 65.0

What I'm gleaning is that if there's an obvious starter in role, Collins is gonna ride 'em as long as they're willing to be run (barring they experience foul trouble). However if there is less of a difference between starter and backup, there seems to be more equitable distribution. Maybe Clayton doesn't get 10-15 next year per game, but I don't know if Ty Berry is gonna play 90% of the minutes.
Those show a difference for sure.

The other side is the minutes given to the 8-11 players with the most use. That's where there were guys that seemed to play more than they should. Poster child for that was Casey Simmons.
 
Unfortunately, yes. Go back a few years. He was playing 10-11 guys a game.

In fact, when he stopped doing that, putting more minutes on his best players, we started winning more games.

Speaking generally, of course.
Depth is the ability for guys to thrive if injury forces their role to increase. Martinelli if anything got better as a starter. Smith came from bench to contributor. That’s depth.

Depth is not playing 11 dudes. CCC has adjusted his approach over the years, to the betterment of the results.

This team is, as they say, hella experienced.

Three fifth-year seniors, a senior, and a junior as starters. A super senior in the post. Less experience as wing/point backups.

I like the idea of Hunger at the four.
I also like the idea of getting a younger four who might be able to push Martinelli to the bench — or share his minutes. (See: that Harvard dude)

I’m less concerned about the backup to Leach. We saw each of the presumptive starters at 2-3-4 play some ‘bring the ball up’ last season. Smith could be fine spelling Leach, playing hard defense, and taking a shot if it was open. It’s no stretch that he could play 5-10 mins in that role, and a similar amount next to Leach.
 
Depth is the ability for guys to thrive if injury forces their role to increase. Martinelli if anything got better as a starter. Smith came from bench to contributor. That’s depth.

Depth is not playing 11 dudes. CCC has adjusted his approach over the years, to the betterment of the results.

This team is, as they say, hella experienced.

Three fifth-year seniors, a senior, and a junior as starters. A super senior in the post. Less experience as wing/point backups.

I like the idea of Hunger at the four.
I also like the idea of getting a younger four who might be able to push Martinelli to the bench — or share his minutes. (See: that Harvard dude)

I’m less concerned about the backup to Leach. We saw each of the presumptive starters at 2-3-4 play some ‘bring the ball up’ last season. Smith could be fine spelling Leach, playing hard defense, and taking a shot if it was open. It’s no stretch that he could play 5-10 mins in that role, and a similar amount next to Leach.
11, no, but 8 would be awesome, and even as many as 9 if Hunger can play the 4 and Fitzmorris and Hunger are both legitimate 15+ minute a night guys rather than just depth pieces to give MN some rest.

If Hunger can’t play the 4 you have the four starting wings with Clayton, Mullins, and Smith behind them. It would be great if two of those three could be legitimate 10-15 minute contributors, especially Clayton. If that’s the case, you have the six wings plus MN and whoever his backup is, basically 8 guys.

If Hunger can play the four more consistently than just as a matchup lineup, then you only need 1 of the 3 bench wings to provide anything, hopefully Clayton. If Hunger at the 4 is just an occasional matchup play then Mullins or Smith need to be ready to play 10-15 minutes depending on the game.

Or you just have a 5 guys for 4 outside spots rotation again and let it ride.
 
If we can get legit contributions from as many as 10 or 11 players, we might be able to add some full court pressing to our defensive playbook. Two years ago we pressed a little, with good effect, but when Boo and Chase were playing so many minutes the toll that kind of effort was taking made it impossible. Would love to see guys like Clayton and Mullins coming off the bench as attack dogs in the front of an aggressive man or even a UCLA 2-2-1 zone press. With an extra 7 footer on the roster, the burden of playing upscale pressure defense on MN could also be reduced.
 
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Deadline coming up!
The deadline of tomorrow is to get in the portal. It's not to commit to a school. Players also have through the 29th to withdraw or not from the draft. I don't know the deadlines to have players commit to a school. Last year Cam Spencer went to Connecticut in June.
 
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11, no, but 8 would be awesome, and even as many as 9 if Hunger can play the 4 and Fitzmorris and Hunger are both legitimate 15+ minute a night guys rather than just depth pieces to give MN some rest.

If Hunger can’t play the 4 you have the four starting wings with Clayton, Mullins, and Smith behind them. It would be great if two of those three could be legitimate 10-15 minute contributors, especially Clayton. If that’s the case, you have the six wings plus MN and whoever his backup is, basically 8 guys.

If Hunger can play the four more consistently than just as a matchup lineup, then you only need 1 of the 3 bench wings to provide anything, hopefully Clayton. If Hunger at the 4 is just an occasional matchup play then Mullins or Smith need to be ready to play 10-15 minutes depending on the game.

Or you just have a 5 guys for 4 outside spots rotation again and let it ride.

My mental model of Collins is that he'd prefer an 8 man rotation - he's been on record as saying akin to "they're young guys, they're built to run all day." If Barnhizer can go 36 minutes with excellent efficiency, it's hard to take him off the court. I could see the mix and match from 1-3 spots - perhaps with Ty Berry getting the majority minutes given his 2-way ability and the trust earned.

I got a hard time thinking of Hunger as a 4 - but perhaps that's because I'm too locked into him being a 5 throughout his HS career. I intuit that Collins actually likes Martinelli at the 4 - the defensive rebounding perked up with him there, and he's able to mix it up in the paint. However, I see the Collins ideal 4 defensively is someone like Robbie Beran - who has length and switchability. Barring the 'Cats changing their defensive scheme (which switched alot), I don't see them having Hunger out there on the perimeter defensively.

What I'm seeing at this point:
  • Barnhizer, Berry, Nicholson, Martinelli, Hunger are called upon to be key contributors - I envision them at least maintaining the minutes they had (Barnhizer, Nicholson, Martinelli), if not growing (in the case of Hunger, Berry).
  • I'm confident that Leach and Fitzmorris can be at the very least a decent rotation piece.
  • Question marks: How much can Mullins, Smith and Clayton improve?
  • Can Blake Barkley or the incoming frosh make a contribution?
If we get good answers to the last two bullet points, then this team can make the tourney. If we have less than satisfactory answers, then it's gonna be a grindy/gritty year where we hope we get good bounces and fortune to eek out a bid.
 
My mental model of Collins is that he'd prefer an 8 man rotation - he's been on record as saying akin to "they're young guys, they're built to run all day." If Barnhizer can go 36 minutes with excellent efficiency, it's hard to take him off the court. I could see the mix and match from 1-3 spots - perhaps with Ty Berry getting the majority minutes given his 2-way ability and the trust earned.

I got a hard time thinking of Hunger as a 4 - but perhaps that's because I'm too locked into him being a 5 throughout his HS career. I intuit that Collins actually likes Martinelli at the 4 - the defensive rebounding perked up with him there, and he's able to mix it up in the paint. However, I see the Collins ideal 4 defensively is someone like Robbie Beran - who has length and switchability. Barring the 'Cats changing their defensive scheme (which switched alot), I don't see them having Hunger out there on the perimeter defensively.

What I'm seeing at this point:
  • Barnhizer, Berry, Nicholson, Martinelli, Hunger are called upon to be key contributors - I envision them at least maintaining the minutes they had (Barnhizer, Nicholson, Martinelli), if not growing (in the case of Hunger, Berry).
  • I'm confident that Leach and Fitzmorris can be at the very least a decent rotation piece.
  • Question marks: How much can Mullins, Smith and Clayton improve?
  • Can Blake Barkley or the incoming frosh make a contribution?
If we get good answers to the last two bullet points, then this team can make the tourney. If we have less than satisfactory answers, then it's gonna be a grindy/gritty year where we hope we get good bounces and fortune to eek out a bid.
I support the guy, and the drop off from first string to bench was large. So I get it. But it isn't so much about in-game, but if the key guys play 36 mins and then have an overtime game, they'll have tired legs.
 
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