How Many Games Will We Win This Year?

[Turk]

We have seen a small sample of this year's team. How do you think we will fare? To be fair, I think we will have a good year and that means 16+ wins. I think we may be able to leave December with 12 wins, including a win against Nebraska. It also doesn't appear that the BIG is that strong after you get passed the big 4 [indy, MSU, purdue, Maryland] so I'm thinking 17 wins??? Based on what I have observed, I'd say par would be 7 BIG wins.

 

[mikewebb68]

Too small a sample size to judge, but we've struggled for consistency; sometimes we look great, but there are still stretches where we play poorly for far too long, on offense and defense. That will kill us in the long run. So if I had a gun to my head based on four games, I would say about the same number of wins as last year. But I believe we are well coached, are still adjusting to the loss of Law, and will improve signficantly as the season wears on.

 

[Turk]

Wow, I'm impressed. I voted 17 and I think that would be a good year with year to year improvement. But it seems as if others have a much better assessment. That's great. Anything more than 17 and it has been a very good coaching job imo. The BIG does have some teams on the down slope this year. OSU looks very bad but that's always been a decent program. Michigan is just so so.

 

[Wildcatfootball12]

Bring on the Warriors

 

[LansingCat]

Call me Pollyanna - 22 wins!

 

[IGNORE2]

Call me Pollyanna - 22 wins!

Pollyanna

 

[EvanstonCat]

Call me Pollyanna - 22 wins!

23! Not including the two wins in the NCAA tourney, but including our wins in the BTT.

 

[Kelly_32]

Non-Conference - 12-1
B1G - 11-7
B1G tourney - 1-1
NCAA tourney - 2-1
Overall - 26-10

 

[NJCat83588]

23! Not including the two wins in the NCAA tourney, but including our wins in the BTT.

Your humor meter is pegged off scale today!

 

[VBCat97]

Non-Conference - 12-1
B1G - 11-7
B1G tourney - 1-1
NCAA tourney - 2-1
Overall - 26-10

Non-Conference: 11-2
B1G: 8-10
B1G Tourney: 1-1
NIT: 2-1
Overall: 22-14

 

[DC Cats]

It's too early to make any strong predictions, but the team showed that it can hang with anyone in the first half against UNC. We've also seen three players on the team with an ability to put the team on their backs at times in BMac, Demps, and Olah.

Based on that, I think this team is absolutely talented enough to win 20+ and go dancing. It's also still inconsistent enough to fall short of that if the team doesn't stay focused and healthy. Given the motivation of the senior leaders in their final year, I believe the team will find a way to make it happen this year.

 

[Turk]

Non-Conference - 12-1
B1G - 11-7
B1G tourney - 1-1
NCAA tourney - 2-1
Overall - 26-10

virginia tech and chicago state?
if we sweep those two then we will b looking good at 12-1.

 

[Walker Fan]

Turk,
If you are saying that NU will have 11 non-conference wins plus 7 Big wins then your math is already off. You are then predicting 18 wins prior to Big 10 tournament play not 17 wins as you stated. I think your post is premature after five games. But I am impressed with McIntosh's and Demp's continued development and Olah looked very good in the first half v. UNC. But then NU did not get him the ball in the second half which was a big mistake by the guards or the coaches. I think Falzon is a frosh which means there will inconsistencies in his play (see Thorson's roller coaster season). Two very good games to start the season and three off games. I think Skelly has shown good development and is deserving of more minutes. Not sure why CC can't see his ability as a defender and passer and maybe if given a chance to score near the basket or grab offensive rebounds. Tap does not have the lateral movement or strength to guard real "4s" or PFs. Lindsey has shown flashes of development and good play. Ash has looked all right in limited minutes. JVZ has shown his athletic ability and had his best game v. Mizzou. Lump has grabbed rebounds and tried to fill the void of Law. If he can hit 1-2 open 3s like in the Mizzou game, NU becomes a much tougher matchup. A number of people criticized NU's non-conference schedule, but cbssports' basketball expert, Jon Rothstein has Columbia as a tourney team. Also, a weaker non-conference schedule is good for stacking Ws and for the development of the three sophs (McIntosh, Skelly, Lindsey) and two frosh (Falzon and Ash) who will be counted on to play minutes in Big 10 play.

As for the Big 10, what we have seen is every team has struggled except for Purdue, MSU and maybe Maryland. Iowa lost to Augustana, Illinois lost to N.Florida and barely escaped with a W v. Chicago St., UW lost to W. Illinois, IU lost to Wake Forest, OSU lost to UT-Arlington and LaTech at home, UM got beaten convincingly at home to Xavier and tonight let's see how they do v. UConn, etc. These are the teams that NU will have to battle in the middle of the Big 10, so the door is slightly open and NU has to develop and continue to progress to beat these types of teams. What we have seen is this team has fight in it like their head coach who hopefully, push his team to new heights.

 

[Walker Fan]

BTW, UConn is up by 14 pts. v. UM and IU has lost to UNLV its second loss of the season. Bye bye top 20-25 ranking for UM and IU.

 

[Styre]

11-2 non-con, 7-11 B1G, 1-1 BTT, 0-1 NIT, 19-15 overall if my math is right.

 

[EvanstonCat]

Your humor meter is pegged off scale today!

Don't be daft. I'm serious, and still Kelly is even more optimistic than me.

Non-Conference - 12-1
B1G - 10-6
B1G tourney - 1-1


23 wins not including the tourney.

NCAA tourney - 2-1

Overall - 25-11

What's so hard to believe about this?

 

[NJCat83588]

Don't be daft. I'm serious, and still Kelly is even more optimistic than me.

Non-Conference - 12-1
B1G - 10-6
B1G tourney - 1-1


23 wins not including the tourney.

NCAA tourney - 2-1

Overall - 25-11

What's so hard to believe about this?

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt on the OOC. I think NU has played their two toughest non-conference foes, UNC and Columbia.

Winning 10 in the Big 10? OK, assume NU beats all of the teams it should beat: @UNL, PSU, Minny, UoI, RU, @PSU, and UNL. No off-nights or slip-ups.

NU still needs 3 wins from: MD, @MD, OSU, @OSU, @Minny, Wisky, @IU, MSU, @Iowa, @PU, and @Mich. I don't see wins agains MD, MSU, @Iowa, @Purdue or @Indiana. So you need three from OSU, @OSU, @Minny, Wisky, and @Mich. OSU and Wisky look beatable in WR Arena, then you need one on the road. Could happen, and probably more likely than winning all the games NU "should" win.

I could see 1-1 in the BTT. First game is a fresh NU playing a team who played the previous day.

Now for the laughable bit:

No way NU wins 2 NCAA games. At best they are an 8 seed meaning they play a very good 9 seed in the first round (I highly doubt a Big 10 team is a final 4-in team, which would be one easy way to get a win). So winning 2 NCAA games means NU would be a Sweet 16 team in their first ever NCA Tournament. Winning 2 games in 3 nights against very good competition with a team with little depth at Guard. Nice to dream but you won't convince me.

 

[EvanstonCat]

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt on the OOC. I think NU has played their two toughest non-conference foes, UNC and Columbia.

Winning 10 in the Big 10? OK, assume NU beats all of the teams it should beat: @UNL, PSU, Minny, UoI, RU, @PSU, and UNL. No off-nights or slip-ups.

NU still needs 3 wins from: MD, @MD, OSU, @OSU, @Minny, Wisky, @IU, MSU, @Iowa, @PU, and @Mich. I don't see wins agains MD, MSU, @Iowa, @Purdue or @Indiana. So you need three from OSU, @OSU, @Minny, Wisky, and @Mich. OSU and Wisky look beatable in WR Arena, then you need one on the road. Could happen, and probably more likely than winning all the games NU "should" win.

I could see 1-1 in the BTT. First game is a fresh NU playing a team who played the previous day.

Now for the laughable bit:

No way NU wins 2 NCAA games. At best they are an 8 seed meaning they play a very good 9 seed in the first round (I highly doubt a Big 10 team is a final 4-in team, which would be one easy way to get a win). So winning 2 NCAA games means NU would be a Sweet 16 team in the first ever NCA Tournament. Winning 2 games in 3 nights against very good competition with a team with little depth at Guard. Nice to dream but you won't convince me.

On the B1G - I think you haven't been watching all of those teams with the exception of MSU looking more than beatable. We have owned Iowa with inferior teams over the last few years, so to say they are unbeatable is silly. We have beaten IU a bunch too, with inferior teams. Wisconsin looks definitely beatable. Michigan is no longer a top 25 team after this week, and we beat them last year with a weaker team. I don't really see why you are so scared of any of these teams. There is not a single team in the B1G that we cannot beat. That last group, we can beat them all and maybe end up over .500 against them. And MD, MSU, Iowa, Purdue, and Indiana, I believe we will have at least a couple wins against this group this year - hell we did that last year with a far weaker team.

Why would it be laughable for an 8 seed to make it to the Sweet Sixteen???? Hell, we have seen 8 seeds go to the Finals recently, and they have back in the day won the whole damn thing.

I don't need to convince you - I may very well be wrong - but the position is hardly laughable and your logic is flawed through and through.

 

[NJCat83588]

Why would it be laughable for an 8 seed to make it to the Sweet Sixteen???? Hell, we have seen 8 seeds go to the Finals recently, and they have back in the day won the whole damn thing.

You seem to have the same reading comprehension problem you accuse one other guy of having. I didn't say it would be laughable for an 8 seed to go to the Sweet 16, I said:

"So winning 2 NCAA games means NU would be a Sweet 16 team in their first ever NCA Tournament."

It probably has happened, but the odds of a school that has never ever appeared in the NCAA Tournament making it through to the Sweet 16 are pretty long.....particularly having already lost their best rebounder for the season to injury.

 

[Styre]

It probably has happened, but the odds of a school that has never ever appeared in the NCAA Tournament making it through to the Sweet 16 are pretty long.....particularly having already lost their best rebounder for the season to injury.

Most recently happened in 2013, when Florida Gulf Coast became the first 15-seed ever to win two games in the tournament in their first tournament appearance.

But in general, yes, it's very unlikely.

 

[NJCat83588]

Most recently happened in 2013, when Florida Gulf Coast became the first 15-seed ever to win two games in the tournament in their first tournament appearance.

But in general, yes, it's very unlikely.

Thanks. I forgot all about them (and the coach's hot wife....).

 

[Turk]

Turk,
If you are saying that NU will have 11 non-conference wins plus 7 Big wins then your math is already off. You are then predicting 18 wins prior to Big 10 tournament play not 17 wins as you stated. I think your post is premature after five games. But I am impressed with McIntosh's and Demp's continued development and Olah looked very good in the first half v. UNC. But then NU did not get him the ball in the second half which was a big mistake by the guards or the coaches. I think Falzon is a frosh which means there will inconsistencies in his play (see Thorson's roller coaster season). Two very good games to start the season and three off games. I think Skelly has shown good development and is deserving of more minutes. Not sure why CC can't see his ability as a defender and passer and maybe if given a chance to score near the basket or grab offensive rebounds. Tap does not have the lateral movement or strength to guard real "4s" or PFs. Lindsey has shown flashes of development and good play. Ash has looked all right in limited minutes. JVZ has shown his athletic ability and had his best game v. Mizzou. Lump has grabbed rebounds and tried to fill the void of Law. If he can hit 1-2 open 3s like in the Mizzou game, NU becomes a much tougher matchup. A number of people criticized NU's non-conference schedule, but cbssports' basketball expert, Jon Rothstein has Columbia as a tourney team. Also, a weaker non-conference schedule is good for stacking Ws and for the development of the three sophs (McIntosh, Skelly, Lindsey) and two frosh (Falzon and Ash) who will be counted on to play minutes in Big 10 play.

As for the Big 10, what we have seen is every team has struggled except for Purdue, MSU and maybe Maryland. Iowa lost to Augustana, Illinois lost to N.Florida and barely escaped with a W v. Chicago St., UW lost to W. Illinois, IU lost to Wake Forest, OSU lost to UT-Arlington and LaTech at home, UM got beaten convincingly at home to Xavier and tonight let's see how they do v. UConn, etc. These are the teams that NU will have to battle in the middle of the Big 10, so the door is slightly open and NU has to develop and continue to progress to beat these types of teams. What we have seen is this team has fight in it like their head coach who hopefully, push his team to new heights.

Certainly, premature but I wanted to have a window presenting predictions from different perspectives. After reading the comments and seeing how most everyone thinks we will get more than my predicition of 17 wins, I went back and looked at the schedule and although I thought 17 wins was a good year since it increases our wins, year to year, I now think that 17 wins will certainly be on the low end considering how bad Michigan and other BIG teams do look. This could be a GREAT year where we can get into the NIT. I do think Falzon's experience will make the game slow down a bit for him and get him into high gear like Law last year, at about late January. If Falzon does get more comfortable then look out, as B=MC2 is really improved, year to year.

 

[Medill90]

I have no idea how many games NU will win.

With Law out this team could possibly have a negative run in the conference for five or six games. However, it could just as easily have a positive run, enabling it to finish over .500 in conference. It has everything to do with the team's mindset.

Over the month of December if we see Falzon and Lindsey come around in a big way -- meaning consistent, not sporadic contributions -- this will be a team no one wants to play.

 

[pawildcat]

Wow, I'm impressed. I voted 17 and I think that would be a good year with year to year improvement. But it seems as if others have a much better assessment. That's great. Anything more than 17 and it has been a very good coaching job imo. The BIG does have some teams on the down slope this year. OSU looks very bad but that's always been a decent program. Michigan is just so so.

Wisconsin doesn't look great this year, either. Even Bo might not be able to get them in the first division this year. I thought Indiana would be strong, and they do have good offense, but they still can't play D. Iowa, just as last year, looks like the weirdest team in the conference. They can look like world beaters one night and utter crap the next.

 

[Turk]

Wisconsin doesn't look great this year, either. Even Bo might not be able to get them in the first division this year. I thought Indiana would be strong, and they do have good offense, but they still can't play D. Iowa, just as last year, looks like the weirdest team in the conference. They can look like world beaters one night and utter crap the next.

The schedule sets up nice imo. We don't play in Madison this year and I think it's good we are getting them very early since they haven't found their groove yet.

 

[IGNORE2]

I still fear the depth at guard. We go only as far as our guards go into the season.

 

[docrugby1]

10 minute scoring droughts pose a problem

 

[No Chores]

I still fear the depth at guard. We go only as far as our guards go into the season.

Agreed, but I would expand the depth problem somewhat to the team in general, particularly with Law gone for the season and Pardon red-shirting. Also, I think the guard problem is primarily at point guard. It would appear that we have only one on the roster.

 

[Medill90]

Agreed, but I would expand the depth problem somewhat to the team in general, particularly with Law gone for the season and Pardon red-shirting. Also, I think the guard problem is primarily at point guard. It would appear that we have only one on the roster.

Ash might be more of a point guard in college than an off guard.

Pardon wasn't going to make a huge difference this year with JVZ taking minutes. Law going down triggered the roster decision to RS Pardon. Now the cats should have serious depth in the paint with Falzon, Law, Pardon, Ivanauskas and Benson together for three years. And they are all players with the physical profile to play the way Collins wants to play.

If I was Nojel Eastern or another talented point guard I'd had to take a serious look at NU.

 

[mikewebb68]

Always interesting to revisit these threads postseason. Amazing how many of us predicted 20+ wins even with Law injured...

 

[EvanstonCat]

23! Not including the two wins in the NCAA tourney, but including our wins in the BTT.

I'm still in the running. 3 wins away to get to 23. And then assuming we get into the tourney, we make it to the Sweet Sixteen!

Hell, I'm already better than all the people who said we wouldn't win 20 (67% of the field), as they were already proven wrong.

The Dream lives on!!!!