How many wins?
- Thread starter ricko654321
- Start date
If they beat Miami, I say 9 wins. If we lose, I say 6 or lower. Huge first game for us to see how good we are. Go Cats!
I picked six wins.
First time seriously looking at the schedule, and the season will obviously be made or broken on the four game stretch after Seattle.
I marked down Duke as a loss, because of course I did.
I think six is the low-end tho. NU makes a bowl again.
First time seriously looking at the schedule, and the season will obviously be made or broken on the four game stretch after Seattle.
I marked down Duke as a loss, because of course I did.
I think six is the low-end tho. NU makes a bowl again.
Me too, 6 wins. I hope I’m pleasantly surprised. I also marked Duke down as an L because we lose to them a lot.
Law of averages sez we’re in for a rough season. We rarely win without an established QB, and we lost some studs to graduation last season.
I think this will be a 3-9 team unless one of the QBs plays lights out. It will be a miserable season if neither QB shines (which is true for most P5 programs, but especially NU). I have hopes that Sullivan was the true #3 and Lausch is in for a surprisingly healthy & effective season.
I think this will be a 3-9 team unless one of the QBs plays lights out. It will be a miserable season if neither QB shines (which is true for most P5 programs, but especially NU). I have hopes that Sullivan was the true #3 and Lausch is in for a surprisingly healthy & effective season.
“In 1950, the average GPA at Harvard was estimated at 2.6 out of 4. By 2003, it had risen to 3.4. Today, it stands at 3.8.
The more elite the college, the more lenient the standards. At Yale, for example, 80% of grades awarded in 2023 were As or A minuses. But the problem is also prevalent at less selective colleges. Across all four-year colleges in the United States, the most commonly awarded grade is now an A.”
(https://yaschamounk.substack.com/p/...e&r=9dpzq&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email)
Due to such trending, I predict NU will go 12-0 even though the evaluation methods used when I was in college would assess its results as a 4-8 season.
The more elite the college, the more lenient the standards. At Yale, for example, 80% of grades awarded in 2023 were As or A minuses. But the problem is also prevalent at less selective colleges. Across all four-year colleges in the United States, the most commonly awarded grade is now an A.”
(https://yaschamounk.substack.com/p/...e&r=9dpzq&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email)
Due to such trending, I predict NU will go 12-0 even though the evaluation methods used when I was in college would assess its results as a 4-8 season.
Why would Sullivan not be the “true #3” if that’s basically why he left? He was more of a mobile QB than Bryant and Hilinski so he should’ve been a fit for Lujan’s offense. Aside from the fact that he gets hurt a lot, so maybe he didn’t want to run that much anymore.
Does the university have to reimburse Braun what he donated for the part-time stadium if they fire him? Fans wanna know.
Lausch might have surpassed him and made clear Sully was permanently behind him on the depth chart.
It happens all the time. And it would be a great sign that Lausch is poised to break out if he stays healthy.
Hmmm well looks like the consensus is around the 6-7 wins range. Not too surprising. That's ahead of the Vegas OU of 4.5 wins, but (i) Vegas usually tends to underestimate us, and (ii) one might expect our fanbase to be slightly optimistic.
We have:
15 predicted a losing record (3,4,5 wins)
24 predicted 6-7 wins (currently 11 at 6-6 including me, and 13 at 7-5, this is the bulk of the predictions)
5 predicted 8,9,10+ wins... let's all hope you optimists are correct!
I have it this way:
Michigan OSU are an L
EIU W
Miami OH and Duke - would like to get 2 but let's call this 1.5 given our history
Maryland I'll assign another 0.5
Indiana, Illinois, Purdue expect to win 2 out of 3
That's 5 wins out of those 7 games that we have a decent chance at being favored in or close to toss-up. Admittedly that's slightly optimsitic relative to what preseason projections have, but doable.
I think we can get another 1 out of Wash, Wiscy, and Iowa to get to 6-6.
GO CATS
Shocking. Loss next game and everyone will be saying 2-3, win and it’s 6 minimum.
As you say, hard to get to even 4 wins. Maybe Purdue but don't know who else we have a shot against. Hope I am wrong
I have no idea why people have suddenly decided Maryland is anything to be more concerned than usual about. Also I get Indiana looks improved, but let’s all take a chill pill crowning them because they’ve beat up some FCS teams and a completely incompetent and crappy UCLA
For what its worth, Sagarin has NU and Purdue at the bottom of the Big Ten.
Approximate point spreads, giving 3 points to home team...
Indiana by 7
Maryland by 13
Wisconsin by 5.5
Iowa by 18
Purdue by 2
Ohio State by 23
Michigan by 19
Illinois by 9.5 (neutral site)
Approximate point spreads, giving 3 points to home team...
Indiana by 7
Maryland by 13
Wisconsin by 5.5
Iowa by 18
Purdue by 2
Ohio State by 23
Michigan by 19
Illinois by 9.5 (neutral site)
It is more about us than it is about them. We have no depth on offense in key areas (OL, RB, WR) and injuries are gonna happen (we have already seen the impact on the O of not having Porter). Plus the game is there. And should we be fortunate enough to win, that still only gets us to 4 (assuming a win against Purdue)
I'd say Sagarin's method suggests (fairly strongly) that we will not be favored to win another game.
But there's a lot of football ahead.
If things go our way, we may be favored at Purdue!
However, if you add up the probabilities of NU winning each game on the remaining schedule, Sagarin is telling us to expect something between 1 and 2 more wins...
46% chance at Purdue, 35% chance hosting Wisconsin, 30% chance hosting Indiana, 17% chance at Maryland, 5% chance at Iowa, 25% chance to beat Illinois, 2% chance to beat Michigan, 0.1% chance to beat Ohio State.
This could get ugly if the offense doesn't improve somehow. Hopefully we don't have any additional losses on the defense. The defensive backs already need to improve based on what we saw at Washington
Not necessarily. If we were assigned a 30% chance of winning each individual remaining game, we wouldn't be favored to win any particular game, but we would be expected to win 2 of them. There would be only a 5.8% chance of winning zero.
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The over under for wins before the season started by draftkings for NU was 4.5. So someone knows something.
But you gotta take a few of those games off the board before you even start using 30% on the rest. I mean se supposedly have a 0.1% chance against dOSU and not a whole lot better against Mich
I just chose 30% as a back of the envelope calculation because the math is easy. Obviously each game should have its own individual odds, some will be higher than 30% and some will be lower. The math just becomes more complicated. I was just trying to make the point that we're not expected to lose every single game, even if the other team is favored in all of them.
I wrote a program that can calculate it, if you assign each game a percentage. Somebody else here (@ricko654321 I think?) used to do Monte Carlo simulations, which doesn't calculate the "exact" number but gets you really, really close.
To clarify:
The calculation for expected number of wins is easy: it's just the sum of the probability we assign to winning each individual game. If each game is 30%, with 8 games remaining, then it's just 8 X 0.3. If we assign a different probability to each game, then sum them.
My program or the Monte Carlo simulations is required if you want to calculate the odds of bowling. What are the odds of winning 6 or more games? That calculation gets much more complicated.
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Yes. Sagarin has us like exactly tied with UCLA but I think we're better. At least we have half of a competent team.
If you use the Sargrin numbers the average is 20%. If you are going to do what you suggest you first have to take out the ones you really have no chance against. That leaves you with an average of 26% chance of winning each of the remaining games. That gives the potential of winning 1.56 additional games. Round up if you want but it puts the likelyhood at winning between 3 and 4 total games. Your 30% is high leading to the calculation of 2.4 additional wins putting us between 4 and 5 So you can either eliminate the 2 no chance games or use 20% rather than the 30%. number you are using are too high.
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Use whatever percentages you like. If Sagarin gives a 5% chance of winning a game, then you add 0.05 to the total. If it's 26%, then you add 0.26.
You tell us. Give us the percentage chance you assign for each game and then add them up. That (plus the 2 we already won) is your expected win total.
Per Massey, which used to be one of the BCS rating systems, we have a 12.8% chance of losing out - roughly 1 in 8 shot; a 32.4% chance of winning 1 more game; a 32.8% chance at winning 2 more games (0.004% chance that the 2 games are OSU and Michigan); a 15.2% chance of winning 3 games, and a 6.8% chance of winning 4 or more games and going bowling.
Obviously this doesn't take into account win probabilities changing after each additional game.
Sounds about right.
Here's the thread with my number-crunching program:
https://northwestern.forums.rivals.com/threads/crunching-the-numbers.32309/
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