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I feel like we've seen this movie before

TheC

TheC

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May 29, 2001
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I am pretty pessimistic when it comes to NU hoops. I've been a fan for a long time and I am too beaten down to feel any other way. I admit it is miserable, but I can't control it. That all said, I found myself pleasantly surprised, but not overly exuberant about our upset win in East Lansing last night. I imagine many of you feel the same. It's a pattern we've seen play out with this team in recent years before. We clean up in the cupcake portion of our schedule. We blow a chance for a quality non-conference win. We have at least one game that we want to forget. And then we start conference play with a really nice, even shocking win or two. But then.....

Last year, we lost tough, close games to Providence and Wake Forest, but then came back with a really nice road win at Maryland to start conference play. We followed that with 4 straight losses including at home to Maryland. But then we had a nice upset of Michigan State... followed by 4 more losses and an eventual 7-13 finish in conference and below .500 record overall.

Two years ago, we had a tough loss to Pitt in the non-conference portion. But had an even more shocking win over MSU again to start conference play. Even better, we followed that up with tough wins against Ohio State and Indiana. That was the last time I think we felt hope as Cat fans. Of course, then we went on to lose our next 13 games!! What was that line from Shawshank Redemption about hope? Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane. It applies to being a Northwestern fan.

So, today we celebrate a nice win against (a somewhat depleted) MSU team. I feel great for the kids. I even feel good for Coach Collins. He looked pretty happy last night. I generally like the guy and wished he were the answer here, so I don't want his life to be miserable. But I've seen this movie before. Even if we win the next BIG game, it is not necessarily a harbinger of good things to come. Hope is a dangerous thing for an NU hoops' fan. That long losing streak always feels like it's just around the corner.
 
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I am finding it very easy to be a NU fan this year. Because I don't have expectations. That has not changed. Yesterday I was completely ready to accept a late collapse and be fine with it.

The last couple of seasons I had those expectations. And that hurts a lot more.
 
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Your not wrong. The only thing that I feel like I can hang my hopes on is that in an obvious lame duck coaching situation, most of the players stuck around. Those guys know their situation better than anyone but didn't take advantage of the portal.
 
TheC said:
I am pretty pessimistic when it comes to NU hoops. I've been a fan for a long time and I am too beaten down to feel any other way. I admit it is miserable, but I can't control it. That all said, I found myself pleasantly surprised, but not overly exuberant about our upset win in East Lansing last night. I imagine many of you feel the same. It's a pattern we've seen play out with this team in recent years before. We clean up in the cupcake portion of our schedule. We blow a chance for a quality non-conference win. We have at least one game that we want to forget. And then we start conference play with a really nice, even shocking win or two. But then.....

Last year, we lost tough, close games to Providence and Wake Forest, but then came back with a really nice road win at Maryland to start conference play. We followed that with 4 straight losses including at home to Maryland. But then we had a nice upset of Michigan State... followed by 4 more losses and an eventual 7-13 finish in conference and below .500 record overall.

Two years ago, we had a tough loss to Pitt in the non-conference portion. But had an even more shocking win over MSU again to start conference play. Even better, we followed that up with tough wins against Ohio State and Indiana. That was the last time I think we felt hope as Cat fans. Of course, then we went on to lose our next 13 games!! What was that line from Shawshank Redemption about hope? Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane. It applies to being a Northwestern fan.

So, today we celebrate a nice win against (a somewhat depleted) MSU team. I feel great for the kids. I even feel good for Coach Collins. He looked pretty happy last night. I generally like the guy and wished he were the answer here, so I don't want his life to be miserable. But I've seen this movie before. Even if we win the next BIG game, it is not necessarily a harbinger of good things to come. Hope is a dangerous thing for an NU hoops' fan. That long losing streak always feels like it's just around the corner.
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Exactly this. Happy/surprised by the win, but we have definitely been here before. The exciting-seeming 3-0 conference start, followed by the huge losing streak, scarred me. Would love to be pleasantly surprised a lot more this year, but I’ll believe it when I see it, and won’t let myself really believe until like early February. We’ll see. It really feels like CC will either pull a rabbit out of a hat and keep his job, or we’re bad/mediocre and he’s out.
 
Hungry Jack said:
If these two senior guards play really smart…
If MN can bring just a bit of low post offense…
If Ty can be that reliable outside spot up shooter…
If Beran can not disappear for long stretches…
If Roper can become a Swiss Army knife…
If Martinelli can provide some points off the bench…
Click to expand...
If a picture paints a thousand words
Then why can't I paint you?
The words will never show the you I've come to know
If a face could launch a thousand ships
Then where am I to go?
There's no one home but you
You're all that's left me to
And when my love for life is running dry
You come and pour yourself on me
 
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Hungry Jack said:
If these two senior guards play really smart…
If MN can bring just a bit of low post offense…
If Ty can be that reliable outside spot up shooter…
If Beran can not disappear for long stretches…
If Roper can become a Swiss Army knife…
If Martinelli can provide some points off the bench…
Click to expand...
No love for Barnhizer?

I love watching him defend. He hedges well. He switches well. He squares his man up well.

He’s effectively being used as the backup to Beran, guarding the opposing 4 — fewer available minutes on the wing with Roper back.

But, man, with this team defending first and hoping to score enough, I’d love to see an Audige-Roper-Barnhizer-Beran-Nicholson lineup. (Felt good thinking about it. On the court it might result in an 0-2 four-minute stretch.)
 
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Hungry Jack said:
If these two senior guards play really smart…
If MN can bring just a bit of low post offense…
If Ty can be that reliable outside spot up shooter…
If Beran can not disappear for long stretches…
If Roper can become a Swiss Army knife…
If Martinelli can provide some points off the bench…
Click to expand...
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!
 
NUCat320 said:
No love for Barnhizer?

I love watching him defend. He hedges well. He switches well. He squares his man up well.

He’s effectively being used as the backup to Beran, guarding the opposing 4 — fewer available minutes on the wing with Roper back.

But, man, with this team defending first and hoping to score enough, I’d love to see an Audige-Roper-Barnhizer-Beran-Nicholson lineup. (Felt good thinking about it. On the court it might result in an 0-2 four-minute stretch.)
Click to expand...
"Barnhizer at the 3 with Beran" has been significantly better than "Barnhizer at the 4 with Beran on the bench."

If Collins feels like Hunger and Martinelli can't play at a high enough level to warrant minutes as backups, we have no natural backup for Beran. Obviously, we can play a guard at the 3, we do that all the time. But Collins hands are tied at the 4.
 
NUCat320 said:
No love for Barnhizer?

I love watching him defend. He hedges well. He switches well. He squares his man up well.

He’s effectively being used as the backup to Beran, guarding the opposing 4 — fewer available minutes on the wing with Roper back.

But, man, with this team defending first and hoping to score enough, I’d love to see an Audige-Roper-Barnhizer-Beran-Nicholson lineup. (Felt good thinking about it. On the court it might result in an 0-2 four-minute stretch.)
Click to expand...

Barnhizer gets hustle stats coaches keep track of--he's first on the floor for loose balls, causes discomfort on defense. This effort has been missing on the team. It's contagious.
 
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20 something years ago after a surprise win at home, my dad was chatting about the victory with another long time season ticket holder. The guy looked at us with a wan smile and said "yeah, but you know they're going to break our hearts."
 
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TheC said:
I am pretty pessimistic when it comes to NU hoops. I've been a fan for a long time and I am too beaten down to feel any other way. I admit it is miserable, but I can't control it. That all said, I found myself pleasantly surprised, but not overly exuberant about our upset win in East Lansing last night. I imagine many of you feel the same. It's a pattern we've seen play out with this team in recent years before. We clean up in the cupcake portion of our schedule. We blow a chance for a quality non-conference win. We have at least one game that we want to forget. And then we start conference play with a really nice, even shocking win or two. But then.....

Last year, we lost tough, close games to Providence and Wake Forest, but then came back with a really nice road win at Maryland to start conference play. We followed that with 4 straight losses including at home to Maryland. But then we had a nice upset of Michigan State... followed by 4 more losses and an eventual 7-13 finish in conference and below .500 record overall.

Two years ago, we had a tough loss to Pitt in the non-conference portion. But had an even more shocking win over MSU again to start conference play. Even better, we followed that up with tough wins against Ohio State and Indiana. That was the last time I think we felt hope as Cat fans. Of course, then we went on to lose our next 13 games!! What was that line from Shawshank Redemption about hope? Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane. It applies to being a Northwestern fan.

So, today we celebrate a nice win against (a somewhat depleted) MSU team. I feel great for the kids. I even feel good for Coach Collins. He looked pretty happy last night. I generally like the guy and wished he were the answer here, so I don't want his life to be miserable. But I've seen this movie before. Even if we win the next BIG game, it is not necessarily a harbinger of good things to come. Hope is a dangerous thing for an NU hoops' fan. That long losing streak always feels like it's just around the corner.
Click to expand...
While I agree, I also take the time to savor the W, especially after FB season
 
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PurpleWhiteBoy said:
"Barnhizer at the 3 with Beran" has been significantly better than "Barnhizer at the 4 with Beran on the bench."

If Collins feels like Hunger and Martinelli can't play at a high enough level to warrant minutes as backups, we have no natural backup for Beran. Obviously, we can play a guard at the 3, we do that all the time. But Collins hands are tied at the 4.
Click to expand...
How are lineups without Boo faring?

Audige seems to have taken over the backup PG role and, frankly, he makes the offense flow well.

Do you have +/- on lineups that contain Audige but not Boo?
 
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NUCat320 said:
How are lineups without Boo faring?

Audige seems to have taken over the backup PG role and, frankly, he makes the offense flow well.

Do you have +/- on lineups that contain Audige but not Boo?
Click to expand...
I have numbers for every lineup for the 5 games against Liberty, Sparty, Georgetown, Auburn and Pitt. (I ignore games against physically inferior teams because they don't reflect reality and can be very misleading).

You are on to something with Buie's performance. He doesn't seem to be clicking with his teammates. I've been holding back on saying that because he's our best returning player and its still early, but so far, something ain't right.

NU with Buie has scored 247 points and allowed 256, which equates to a 59.3 - 61.8 loss over 40 minutes.
NU without Buie has scored 61 points and allowed 49 points in about 31 minutes.

Its not a lot of data... but you don't want your team playing better when one of your stars is on the bench.

Notably, lineups that include Buie, Audige and Verhoeven are up 89-77 in about 58 minutes of action.
Lineups that include Buie, Audige and Nicholson are down 94-73 in about 55 minutes.

Nicholson without Buie and Audige at the same time is up 75-60 in about 36 minutes of play.
Verhoeven without Buie and Audige at the same time is a mere 34-36 in almost 30 minutes of play.

These are stark differences.
 
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PurpleWhiteBoy said:
I have numbers for every lineup for the 5 games against Liberty, Sparty, Georgetown, Auburn and Pitt. (I ignore games against physically inferior teams because they don't reflect reality and can be very misleading).

You are on to something with Buie's performance. He doesn't seem to be clicking with his teammates. I've been holding back on saying that because he's our best returning player and its still early, but so far, something ain't right.

NU with Buie has scored 247 points and allowed 256, which equates to a 59.3 - 61.8 loss over 40 minutes.
NU without Buie has scored 61 points and allowed 49 points in about 31 minutes.

Its not a lot of data... but you don't want your team playing better when one of your stars is on the bench.

Notably, lineups that include Buie, Audige and Verhoeven are up 89-77 in about 58 minutes of action.
Lineups that include Buie, Audige and Nicholson are down 94-73 in about 55 minutes.

Nicholson without Buie and Audige at the same time is up 75-60 in about 36 minutes of play.
Verhoeven without Buie and Audige at the same time is a mere 34-36 in almost 30 minutes of play.

These are stark differences.
Click to expand...
The numbers are interesting, but I wonder how much you can really draw from it based on the relatively small number of games so far and the fact that the level of competition has not been consistent yet. What worked against Chicago State may not work against Ohio State, etc....
 
TheC said:
The numbers are interesting, but I wonder how much you can really draw from it based on the relatively small number of games so far and the fact that the level of competition has not been consistent yet. What worked against Chicago State may not work against Ohio State, etc....
Click to expand...
I'm only using the 5 games we played against teams that have Power 6 talent or membership...
Liberty, Mich State, Georgetown, Auburn and Pitt.

So we are talking about indications - what has worked and what hasn't.

Roper is a very different player from Buie. Barnhizer is a very different player from any of his teammates. So is Nicholson. So is Beran. It is a virtual certainty that individuals will perform better with certain teammates and perform worse in other lineups. The trick is to determine what is noise and what is actually "chemistry."

So far, playing Barnhizer at the 4 is not working. Playing Barnhizer at the 3 with Beran at the 4 is working well.
When Verhoeven plays with Audige, Buie and Beran, those lineups have succeeded. But when Verhoeven is playing and Audige or Buie is on the bench, we can't score.

The flipside of that is that when Nicholson is on the court we play a lot better if Buie or Audige is on the bench.

As I said, so far these are just indications. We'll see if they persist. Roper's return to the lineup will impact the chemistry and the lineups Collins deploys.
 
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PurpleWhiteBoy said:
So far, playing Barnhizer at the 4 is not working. Playing Barnhizer at the 3 with Beran at the 4 is working well.
When Verhoeven plays with Audige, Buie and Beran, those lineups have succeeded. But when Verhoeven is playing and Audige or Buie is on the bench, we can't score.

The flipside of that is that when Nicholson is on the court we play a lot better if Buie or Audige is on the bench.
Click to expand...
A healthy Roper is problematic for Barnhizer’s minutes, and I think both need minutes. The roster is just so wing-heavy.

I wonder if Beran could get time at the 5 as the season progresses. Tydus plays hard but doesn’t really bring much.

As for Nicholson contributing more without Audige or Buie in there, those guys are ball-dominant and quick to shoot. Roper and Barnhizer and Berry are just more judicious in their shot selection, more likely to dump it in if they’re not open.
 
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Hungry Jack said:
What is your theory to explain this?
Click to expand...
"Theory" is a powerful word! But NUCat320 beat me to it.

I'll throw out a guess. It seems to me that Barnhizer and Roper are much more willing (and prefer) to try to score in the paint. They also seem more willing to get the ball inside to the big guys. So when Collins takes either Buie or Audige off the court, there's a good chance Barnhizer or Roper will be playing. We become less perimeter oriented, which suits Nicholson's game. I also think Buie and Nicholson are having a difficult time getting on the same page when Buie drives to the basket.

One other thing - when you shoot 3's, the rebounds go all over the place, dramatically reducing the offensive rebounding opportunities for the bigs, but leading to rebounding opportunities for guys like Roper, Berry and Audige. When you take "shorter" shots, a true big, like Nicholson, has a better chance to cause havoc on the offensive glass because the rebounds are less scattered.
 
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PurpleWhiteBoy said:
One other thing - when you shoot 3's, the rebounds go all over the place, dramatically reducing the offensive rebounding opportunities for the bigs, but leading to rebounding opportunities for guys like Roper, Berry and Audige. When you take "shorter" shots, a true big, like Nicholson, has a better chance to cause havoc on the offensive glass because the rebounds are less scattered.
Click to expand...
This is the part I was thinking. Not as many offensive rebounds for the big man when they are clanging their threes.
 
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PurpleWhiteBoy said:
I have numbers for every lineup for the 5 games against Liberty, Sparty, Georgetown, Auburn and Pitt. (I ignore games against physically inferior teams because they don't reflect reality and can be very misleading).

You are on to something with Buie's performance. He doesn't seem to be clicking with his teammates. I've been holding back on saying that because he's our best returning player and its still early, but so far, something ain't right.

NU with Buie has scored 247 points and allowed 256, which equates to a 59.3 - 61.8 loss over 40 minutes.
NU without Buie has scored 61 points and allowed 49 points in about 31 minutes.

Its not a lot of data... but you don't want your team playing better when one of your stars is on the bench.

Notably, lineups that include Buie, Audige and Verhoeven are up 89-77 in about 58 minutes of action.
Lineups that include Buie, Audige and Nicholson are down 94-73 in about 55 minutes.

Nicholson without Buie and Audige at the same time is up 75-60 in about 36 minutes of play.
Verhoeven without Buie and Audige at the same time is a mere 34-36 in almost 30 minutes of play.

These are stark differences.
Click to expand...
Buie is the most frustrating player I've watched at NU. He clearly can win ball games for the team, as he did against MSU, but then he'll have ten more games where he hurts the team. He continues to make bad decisions and take bad shots. He doesn't get his teammates the ball often enough as the point guard. We're stuck with him and hope that he can have more good games.
 
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DaCat said:
Buie is the most frustrating player I've watched at NU. He clearly can win ball games for the team, as he did against MSU, but then he'll have ten more games where he hurts the team. He continues to make bad decisions and take bad shots. He doesn't get his teammates the ball often enough as the point guard. We're stuck with him and hope that he can have more good games.
Click to expand...
So the ratio is he wins one game for NU and hurts them for 10?
 
Purple Pile Driver said:
So the ratio is he wins one game for NU and hurts them for 10?
Click to expand...
People don’t understand how much he creates when he penetrates. The whole offense is built and can only be successful with Buie or Audige penetrating and creating shots. Don’t have the creators otherwise. If Buie isn’t hot shooting people say he had a bad game even if he makes good decisions passing and plays halfway decent defensively.
 
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ThatkidfromHolland said:
People don’t understand how much he creates when he penetrates. The whole offense is built and can only be successful with Buie or Audige penetrating and creating shots. Don’t have the creators otherwise. If Buie isn’t hot shooting people say he had a bad game even if he makes good decisions passing and plays halfway decent defensively.
Click to expand...
He is out of control way too often and still makes poor decisions. I like his toughness and fearlessness, also Audige's, but they are probably just not good enough shooters to really take us anywhere.
 
phatcat said:
He is out of control way too often and still makes poor decisions. I like his toughness and fearlessness, also Audige's, but they are probably just not good enough shooters to really take us anywhere.
Click to expand...
Easily the best 2 players we have. Buie takes some poor shots and forces it at times. He’s still a top 3 guard in my lifetime at NU. Audige has vastly improved his shot selection this year and is a much better player offensively. You have to take the good with the bad this year and let them play. They’re the two who make this engine go.
 
Fitzphile said:
OK, I'm probably a hell of a lot older than you. My top guards in MY NU lifetime:

Billy McKinney
Juice Thompson
Jitim Young
Bryant McIntosh
Drew Crawford
Tre Demps
Pat Baldwin
Art Aaron
Michael Jenkins
Rod Roberson

Boo
Click to expand...
Wouldn’t have called Crawford a guard but Boo, McIntosh, Thompson. Top 3 easy. Not in that order.

I’m wrong on Crawford. He’s a guard.

Edit I’ve only lived through in two NU coaches maybe 3 if we count toddler years but I only remember Carmody and Collins.
 
ubercat said:
He still holds the all-time NU single game scoring record. 49 points vs. Iowa, at McGaw Hall in 1964. And that was before the shot clock was instituted, and before the 3 point shot rule was in effect.
Click to expand...
I was at that game, which was against Iowa. Rich was guarded by a kid named Andy Hankins who, obviously, didn't do much of a job! Rich and his brother Chuck, a baseball player at NU, were my fraternity brothers and both good guys.
 
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I still feel like I've seen this movie before. I guess if we can avoid an extended 6 or 7 game losing streak now, maybe things will be different. But this is exactly what always happens to this team. Win a few surprise games at the beginning of the conference season, then fail to close out tough games and go on an extended losing streak that saps all the life out of the fan base.

Man, I hope this year is different!
 
This is *not* always what happens!
NU got its second conference win last season on February 1. (That was the huge almost-blown lead against Rutgers.)

This is a good team that played well against a good team.

I think this conference is not very good, and also that some of the non-traditionals (Rutgers, PSU, NU) might be better than the perennial contenders. So that weird.

But NU is good. Keep the faith.
 
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