I'm ready to move on from CC

[ricko654321]

I've generally supported him, was gradually trending away the last couple years but wanted to be patient. He and that team gave us the experience of a lifetime with that Michigan win and the trip to SLC for the dance. But the goodwill from one good season does not last forever. This year I have been on the fence, watching and waiting to see how the team would do.

It's ironic that it happens after a win, but watching that game I've seen enough. The repeated inability to close has been a hallmark of both his and the prior coach's teams, and it's beyond tiresome. I realize that is in part due to us not having stud players, but when at 10 minutes to play with a 15 point lead (down from 25?) you already stop attacking on offense and trying to work the clock, that is not just on the players. We attacked the zone press for a handful of possessions initially, and got great looks! We missed a few shots, they closed the gap by a bit, but that doesn't mean you play like a turtle in its shell the rest of the way. We have done it so many times over the years, and when we shift to that attitude on offense (kill the clock) the players start playing tentative in all parts of the game, the crowd energy dies off (not that it sounded like there was much on Weds night to start with) - it even seems the refs start sensing it and they give the opponent the benefit of the doubt as they attack the basket while we sit outside until shot clock runs down and we force up a bad look. Even though we won, that game was the culmination of what we've seen so many times. Aside from the questionable tactical decisions on how to defend Mulcahy and why are we sitting Nance (his injury might have been acting up), the fact that we have seen that movie over and over again is the primary reason why I've had enough. He's been the best recruiter to NU during my lifetime, but he doesn't seem to be able to put it together to consistently win games. It does not seem to me that he gets the best out of his players - some anecdotal things I've heard over the years may help explain that, but who knows. I am not sure if the next guy we get will be better, but I think it's worth a try to see who that is - given we've been at or near the bottom of the conference for a few years running the trajectory of possible outcomes seems asymmetrically skewed toward "improvement" over "even worse".

Now there's a lot of basketball to play this season no doubt. And I will be cheering for the Cats to take advantage of an easier schedule the back half of the season. I've admired the development of Nance and Buie over time, and hope they can go on a run to finish their senior years. But barring something seriously unexpected happening the rest of the way, at the end of the year I'm ready to go in a different direction for our head basketball coach.

 

[phatcat]

Stranger things have happened. Our so-called 'weaker schedule' might net a few wins. But this is a near-term peak for him. People throw dog crap at Nance, but he's clearly the top player on the team, and I don't see us going anywhere but down next year.

Boo is a junior.

 

[peatymeanis]

He's been the best recruiter to NU during my lifetime

And yet he strikes out in all his top PG targets since BMac and has never recruited a player as good as Crawford, Shurna, Coble, Young etc.

The myth of Collins as a magical recruiter needs to die.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

And yet he strikes out in all his top PG targets since BMac and has never recruited a player as good as Crawford, Shurna, Coble, Young etc.

The myth of Collins as a magical recruiter needs to die.

I just say he is an above average recruiter. I think that is reasonable, or at least not "way off."

 

[peatymeanis]

I just say he is an above average recruiter. I think that is reasonable, or at least not "way off."

In the sense that given how bad of a coach he is in general, it’s surprising that he’s even been able to get our current recruits. So he definitely outperforms the baseline in that sense. Like if Tim Beckman were recruiting at a D1 level to the Illini when he was there.

 

[Catdude]

We seem to be comically (have to laugh instead of cry) and cosmically (Spalding the basketball god clearly hates NU) unable to deliver the knockout blow whether that is making a shot on offense or getting a stop on defense.

But I agree with your analysis. Colins’ late-game conservatism on offense repeatedly harms us. As someone else noted, as the consistent underdog, we should be the aggressor and play to win, not to not lose.

 

[DaCat]

I just say he is an above average recruiter. I think that is reasonable, or at least not "way off."

I agree. He's built a decent roster but never really got the breakthrough recruit that he needs. Momentum was sky high after the tournament season, but the subsequent sub-par seasons ruined any chance of leveraging that success. We had legitimate shots at guys like Christie, PBJ, and others. What could've been.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

And yet he strikes out in all his top PG targets since BMac and has never recruited a player as good as Crawford, Shurna, Coble, Young etc.

The myth of Collins as a magical recruiter needs to die.

Vic Law?

 

[peatymeanis]

Vic Law?

The guys I named are 20ppg scorers or first team all conference level players. Vic Law was good but not at that level.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

We seem to be comically (have to laugh instead of cry) and cosmically (Spalding the basketball god clearly hates NU) unable to deliver the knockout blow whether that is making a shot on offense or getting a stop on defense.

But I agree with your analysis. Colins’ late-game conservatism on offense repeatedly harms us. As someone else noted, as the consistent underdog, we should be the aggressor and play to win, not to not lose.

There is no way CCC doesn’t deserve most of the blame when you blow a 24 point lead. Again, missed this debacle, but from reading posts here it seems like the usual player tightness reared it’s ugly head again. Missed Free throws, quick wild shots, pass the hot potato etc. it takes a lot to go wrong to blow a lead that size. It’s not a 8 point lead. The second half of these games are mind blowing. I can’t remember ever seeing a group this fragile (over their careers) or this tentative. It’s time he tries something drastic. Maybe telling the team that if we get under 5 seconds on the shot clock, someone is sitting.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

Stranger things have happened. Our so-called 'weaker schedule' might net a few wins. But this is a near-term peak for him. People throw dog crap at Nance, but he's clearly the top player on the team, and I don't see us going anywhere but down next year.

Boo is a junior.

They 2022-2023 version beat MSU on the road without Nance. I wouldn’t be so sure about them going anywhere but down. 🤷‍♂️

 

[phatcat]

They 2022-2023 version beat MSU on the road without Nance. I wouldn’t be so sure about them going anywhere but down. 🤷‍♂️

Had to look up the details, but on Feb 18, 1989, the Cats beat 16th ranked OSU, a team that had beaten us by 32pts a few weeks earlier. In my irrational exuberance, I went in and woke my newborn daughter and said, words to the effect of "you're going to Northwestern, little girl!". Cooler heads prevailed, and she ended up at Valpo for less than half the cost of NU.

Thirty two years later, we are less successful than the 17 year locust. I don't get too excited about an occasional win (MSU) or an epic collapse (pick one). But I do respect trends and tendencies. No question in my mind that Collins "had it" early on in his tenure. The tourney year was not a fluke, the prior teams were good. But whatever he had, he lost. He may have reached too often for the brass ring and missed, I don't know. He could catch lightning in a bottle and recover, but there is no evidence that he will.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Had to look up the details, but on Feb 18, 1989, the Cats beat 16th ranked OSU, a team that had beaten us by 32pts a few weeks earlier. In my irrational exuberance, I went in and woke my newborn daughter and said, words to the effect of "you're going to Northwestern, little girl!". Cooler heads prevailed, and she ended up at Valpo for less than half the cost of NU.

Thirty two years later, we are less successful than the 17 year locust. I don't get too excited about an occasional win (MSU) or an epic collapse (pick one). But I do respect trends and tendencies. No question in my mind that Collins "had it" early on in his tenure. The tourney year was not a fluke, the prior teams were good. But whatever he had, he lost. He may have reached too often for the brass ring and missed, I don't know. He could catch lightning in a bottle and recover, but there is no evidence that he will.

So he “had it” early in his tenure but whatever that was he “lost it”? He went from being a good coach in most posters eyes to a complete imbecile in that time period. Might have something to do with better players at one time.

 

[IdahoAlum]

So he “had it” early in his tenure but whatever that was he “lost it”? He went from being a good coach in most posters eyes to a complete imbecile in that time period. Might have something to do with better players at one time.

Well if you mean by “it” that 37 percent winning percentage in the BIG his first three seasons, I guess. But that’s a pretty low bar for “it.”

 

[DaCat]

Well if you mean by “it” that 37 percent winning percentage in the BIG his first three seasons, I guess. But that’s a pretty low bar for “it.”

The trajectory was positive the first four seasons: overall wins 14, 15, 20, 24. B1G record also trended up: 6-12, 6-12, 8-10, 10-8. Sure was looking good.

 

[phatcat]

The trajectory was positive the first four seasons: overall wins 14, 15, 20, 24. B1G record also trended up: 6-12, 6-12, 8-10, 10-8. Sure was looking good.

This is exactly what I mean. Further, even his first year was better than BC's last one where we had 4 B1G wins. Now, I'm operating on the assumption that we will NOT win 4 more games and will do the obligatory 1st round B1G tourney loss. If they win a total of even 7 B1G wins, particularly with even one conf tourney win, then I'll STFU for a year.

 

[CatJones]

He and that team gave us the experience of a lifetime with that Michigan win and the trip to SLC for the dance.

When I see that highlight of that court length inbounds play prior to each home game, I get more convinced that Dererk pushed off prior to his catch and lay-in.

 

[ricko654321]

And yet he strikes out in all his top PG targets since BMac and has never recruited a player as good as Crawford, Shurna, Coble, Young etc.

The myth of Collins as a magical recruiter needs to die.

I just said he is the best recruiter that we've had at NU in my time - I didn't think that was very high of a bar. But considering the team's recent track record under him and the school's history generally, plus admissions constraints, I do think he has done a fairly impressive job continuing to get top 250 type recruits to come to NU.

 

[hoosboot]

I do think he has done a fairly impressive job continuing to get top 250 type recruits to come to NU.

It's definitely not just you, but defining "good" recruiting as this is a massive part of the problem.

CCC would be a much better recruiter if he got fewer Top 250 recruits, but those recruits were developed in more specific roles and fit together cohesively. Or, a lot to ask to be sure, that the Top 250 ranked recruits NU got developed in more specific roles and fit together cohesively.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

This is exactly what I mean. Further, even his first year was better than BC's last one where we had 4 B1G wins. Now, I'm operating on the assumption that we will NOT win 4 more games and will do the obligatory 1st round B1G tourney loss. If they win a total of even 7 B1G wins, particularly with even one conf tourney win, then I'll STFU for a year.

Though I am often critical of Collins for his game management, I fully expect us to win at least 4 games from here forward.

We have a reasonably talented team and if things turn, we could win 7 of 9.
The team needs a spark or something to loosen the noose around their necks so they can play with some positive energy. Something creative like Beran at small forward or "our biggest player" just wreaking havoc and laughing about it for a few minutes a night.

The way I see it, the season has been one big missed opportunity so far.

11/30/21 @wake Forest -- should have won
12/05/21 @Maryland -- won
01/02/22 Michigan St -- could have won
01/05/22 Penn State -- should have won
01/09/22 @Ohio State -- might have won
01/12/22 Maryland -- should have won
01/15/22 @Mich St -- won
01/18/22 Wisconsin -- might have won
01/23/22 @Purdue -- we're outgunned
01/26/22 Michigan -- should have won
01/29/22 Illinois -- could have won
02/01/22 Rutgers -- won

So if we had won the 4 games we should have won, we'd be 14-6 overall, 6-5 in the Big Ten.

 

[peatymeanis]

I just said he is the best recruiter that we've had at NU in my time - I didn't think that was very high of a bar. But considering the team's recent track record under him and the school's history generally, plus admissions constraints, I do think he has done a fairly impressive job continuing to get top 250 type recruits to come to NU.

I think that’s a relatively narrow definition of recruiting (closing the deal on a top 250 recruit) that I don’t agree with. Sure, Collins does ok based solely on that metric. But recruiting is also things like: identifying guys that are overlooked by the ranking websites, identifying intangibles that your program needs, identifying guys that have potential you can develop, not striking out on the guys you do bring to campus. By those metrics, Collins is a poor recruiter.

To sum up, I don’t think Collins is demonstrably better at recruiting than Carmody (who we all agree wasn’t a good recruiter), when taking all things into account. Collins may do some recruiting things better on the margins but Carmody was pretty good at finding diamonds in the rough that turned out to be all conference level players.

 

[The Purple Knight]

Stranger things have happened. Our so-called 'weaker schedule' might net a few wins. But this is a near-term peak for him. People throw dog crap at Nance, but he's clearly the top player on the team, and I don't see us going anywhere but down next year.

Boo is a junior.

Team will be a lot more consistent when Boo and Nance are gone. Flash players that do as much bad as they do good. You can count on them for clumsy stupid plays at crunch time every time. The best game the team played all year was without Nance. Time to move on.

 

[SDakaGordie]

I think that’s a relatively narrow definition of recruiting (closing the deal on a top 250 recruit) that I don’t agree with. Sure, Collins does ok based solely on that metric. But recruiting is also things like: identifying guys that are overlooked by the ranking websites, identifying intangibles that your program needs, identifying guys that have potential you can develop, not striking out on the guys you do bring to campus. By those metrics, Collins is a poor recruiter.

To sum up, I don’t think Collins is demonstrably better at recruiting than Carmody (who we all agree wasn’t a good recruiter), when taking all things into account. Collins may do some recruiting things better on the margins but Carmody was pretty good at finding diamonds in the rough that turned out to be all conference level players.

Carmody was widely regarded as a master technician. If he and Collins recruited about the same, how has Collins managed to have as good an overall record (never mind the NCAA)?

 

[peatymeanis]

Carmody was widely regarded as a master technician. If he and Collins recruited about the same, how has Collins managed to have as good an overall record (never mind the NCAA)?

Question you should ask is how has Collins now sunk to Carmody’s overall record despite having a team that went to the tournament early in his tenure? It’s clear now that was a fluke. Carmody had us as a consistent NIT team, why can’t Collins meet that low bar?

 

[SDakaGordie]

Question you should ask is how has Collins now sunk to Carmody’s overall record despite having a team that went to the tournament early in his tenure? It’s clear now that was a fluke. Carmody had us as a consistent NIT team, why can’t Collins meet that low bar?

Nice question avoidance.

I’ll answer yours anyway - the NU job is ridiculously tougher than any other job. I’ve said many times before that it would take a miracle to create a consistent winner. Even Fitz has chinks in his armor of late. We should be expecting volatile results, and be ecstatic if we can do better, given our constraint.

 

[hoosboot]

Nice question avoidance.

I’ll answer yours anyway - the NU job is ridiculously tougher than any other job. I’ve said many times before that it would take a miracle to create a consistent winner. Even Fitz has chinks in his armor of late. We should be expecting volatile results, and be ecstatic if we can do better, given our constraint.

The problem is that the results most decidedly aren't volatile.

 

[Rebel II]

Though I am often critical of Collins for his game management, I fully expect us to win at least 4 games from here forward.

We have a reasonably talented team and if things turn, we could win 7 of 9.
The team needs a spark or something to loosen the noose around their necks so they can play with some positive energy. Something creative like Beran at small forward or "our biggest player" just wreaking havoc and laughing about it for a few minutes a night.

The way I see it, the season has been one big missed opportunity so far.

11/30/21 @wake Forest -- should have won
12/05/21 @Maryland -- won
01/02/22 Michigan St -- could have won
01/05/22 Penn State -- should have won
01/09/22 @Ohio State -- might have won
01/12/22 Maryland -- should have won
01/15/22 @Mich St -- won
01/18/22 Wisconsin -- might have won
01/23/22 @Purdue -- we're outgunned
01/26/22 Michigan -- should have won
01/29/22 Illinois -- could have won
02/01/22 Rutgers -- won

So if we had won the 4 games we should have won, we'd be 14-6 overall, 6-5 in the Big Ten.

If a buzzard had a bugle up its ass, there would be music in the sky!!! IF?

 

[Catreporter]

identifying guys that are overlooked by the ranking websites,

In these days of all-year hoops and traveling teams, that's a very high bar especially with NU's academic limitations. You need to project how much a player can get better among that top 250. Because of academics, jaycees are pretty much out. Collins has attracted some pretty decent transfers so far, but can you get a difference maker that way? Shurna was an overlooked player to be sure. Maybe the Glenbrook South kid they were scouting is too. Even saying all that, you are going up against highly recruited players every night in the Big Ten. Heck, Nebraska is 0-11 despite featuring a five star guy right now who is living up to his billing.

 

[SDakaGordie]

The problem is that the results most decidedly aren't volatile.

This is the key point, but the evidence says:

- We are playing much closer games when we lose than in any season ever.
- We have the highest percentage of the sum of (close losses and wins) vs. games played for any season ever, by far, except for the NCAA team.

That’s not indicative of ho-hum we just suck as always; it’s decidedly different. It hasn’t translated into wins as well as we want, but it’s not reason to throw in the towel, in my view.

 

[7th Cir. Cat]

I think that’s a relatively narrow definition of recruiting (closing the deal on a top 250 recruit) that I don’t agree with. Sure, Collins does ok based solely on that metric. But recruiting is also things like: identifying guys that are overlooked by the ranking websites, identifying intangibles that your program needs, identifying guys that have potential you can develop, not striking out on the guys you do bring to campus. By those metrics, Collins is a poor recruiter.

To sum up, I don’t think Collins is demonstrably better at recruiting than Carmody (who we all agree wasn’t a good recruiter), when taking all things into account. Collins may do some recruiting things better on the margins but Carmody was pretty good at finding diamonds in the rough that turned out to be all conference level players.

For all the scorn we heap on Carmoday's recruiting (most deserved) Shurna and Crawford are NU's all-time leading scorers. There is not a single Collins player that I would take over Shurna and very few (if any) that I would take over Crawford. Throw in Juice and Coble and you can argue that he had the same (if not better) eye for talent. He just couldn't bring in enough "solid" guys to surround his stars.

 

[peatymeanis]

For all the scorn we heap on Carmoday's recruiting (most deserved) Shurna and Crawford are NU's all-time leading scorers. There is not a single Collins player that I would take over Shurna and very few (if any) that I would take over Crawford. Throw in Juice and Coble and you can argue that he had the same (if not better) eye for talent. He just couldn't bring in enough "solid" guys to surround his stars.

Throw in Vukusic who was as good if not better than anyone Collins has recruited. And I completely forgot about Jitim Young…

 

[hoosboot]

This is the key point, but the evidence says:

- We are playing much closer games when we lose than in any season ever.
- We have the highest percentage of the sum of (close losses and wins) vs. games played for any season ever, by far, except for the NCAA team.

That’s not indicative of ho-hum we just suck as always; it’s decidedly different. It hasn’t translated into wins as well as we want, but it’s not reason to throw in the towel, in my view.

Yeah, but the results aren't volatile. Translating that into wins is the bottomline of the job and the inability to do that is a problem given the baseline for the lack of volatility.

I'm not even in favor of firing CCC, but you have to be able to assess the situation realistically, Gordie, and make changes that address ongoing problems. I sincerely doubt that CCC is playing the "we're close to being good" card right now.

 

[SDakaGordie]

Yeah, but the results aren't volatile. Translating that into wins is the bottomline of the job and the inability to do that is a problem given the baseline for the lack of volatility.

I'm not even in favor of firing CCC, but you have to be able to assess the situation realistically, Gordie, and make changes that address ongoing problems. I sincerely doubt that CCC is playing the "we're close to being good" card right now.

I agree with you that recent W/L results are not as good as desired (by anyone’s measure) and are more consistently poor than desired. I’ve just been advocating that his firing is not (yet) justified. If he had none of the progress I’ve noted, I’d be of a different mindset. That’s just based on examining some other factors that underlie the W/L results, which is a realistic thing to do, in my mind.

 

[peatymeanis]

In these days of all-year hoops and traveling teams, that's a very high bar especially with NU's academic limitations. You need to project how much a player can get better among that top 250. Because of academics, jaycees are pretty much out. Collins has attracted some pretty decent transfers so far, but can you get a difference maker that way? Shurna was an overlooked player to be sure. Maybe the Glenbrook South kid they were scouting is too. Even saying all that, you are going up against highly recruited players every night in the Big Ten. Heck, Nebraska is 0-11 despite featuring a five star guy right now who is living up to his billing.

Yeah sure it’s a tough job, definitely. But that’s the job. It’s what all of our peer schools are doing in the conference, many of them to great success. Wisconsin and MSU get studs but also consistently develop unheralded guys they find. If we are going to compete in the premier conference then we should try to act like it and not make excuses.

It doesn’t make sense to drop hundreds of millions on facilities and then say “ah Collins’ job is so difficult, let’s cut him a break”. This is still a results business at the end of the day. We can either act like it or we should quit the B10 in basketball.

 

[ricko654321]

This is the key point, but the evidence says:

- We are playing much closer games when we lose than in any season ever.
- We have the highest percentage of the sum of (close losses and wins) vs. games played for any season ever, by far, except for the NCAA team.

That’s not indicative of ho-hum we just suck as always; it’s decidedly different. It hasn’t translated into wins as well as we want, but it’s not reason to throw in the towel, in my view.

We've been losing close games for years on end - at some point it isn't bad luck (with gradual progress), it's a trend.

I thought I heard them say on BTN that we are 4-26 (now 5-26 after Rutgers) in conference games decided by X or less points (maybe 7) over the last Y years (maybe 3)? I am not sure that I heard that correctly though, it seems almost unbelievable even despite having lived through so many close losses during that time period. I have come to the conclusion that inability to finish out close games is at least partly attributable to coaching, not just bad luck and the players.

 

[peatymeanis]

I agree with you that recent W/L results are not as good as desired (by anyone’s measure) and are more consistently poor than desired. I’ve just been advocating that his firing is not (yet) justified. If he had none of the progress I’ve noted, I’d be of a different mindset. That’s just based on examining some other factors that underlie the W/L results, which is a realistic thing to do, in my mind.

1. Moral victories are not victories
2. Progress isn’t guaranteed. Just because you are close to winning today doesn’t mean you will win tomorrow.
3. 9 years into a coach’s tenure, only one metric matters: W/L. First 2-3 years when the data is incomplete, sure let’s look at different stats and try to figure out how he’s doing. But 9 years in the coach is what he is. Either he has shown improvement in W/L or he hasn’t. Using other stats to justify keeping a coach that isn’t winning is just coping.

 

[ricko654321]

We've been losing close games for years on end - at some point it isn't bad luck (with gradual progress), it's a trend.

I thought I heard them say on BTN that we are 4-26 (now 5-26 after Rutgers) in conference games decided by X or less points (maybe 7) over the last Y years (maybe 3)? I am not sure that I heard that correctly though, it seems almost unbelievable even despite having lived through so many close losses during that time period. I have come to the conclusion that inability to finish out close games is at least partly attributable to coaching, not just bad luck and the players.

Yeah so in the last 5 years (since 2017, which you might recall was a pretty good year for us), here are our "Luck" rankings in KenPom - this is basically a measure of expected wins vs realized wins based on point differential (0 is normal):
2018: -.068, good for 326 / 351 teams, 92rd percentile
2019: -.111, good for 348 / 353 teams, 98th percentile
2020: -.087, good for 334 / 353 teams, 95th percentile
2021: -.091, good for 331 / 357 teams, 92nd percentile
2022 (ytd): -.141, good for 353 / 358 teams, 98th percentile
(Average is 0.0996, which rounds to 0.1, which means in a 30 game season we are costing ourselves an average of 3 games per year due to bad "luck")

We have literally been in the bottom decile of winning close games for 5 years straight, never even better than the bottom 8%.

The probability of us being in the bottom decile for 5 years straight based on random chance is 1 in 100,000, or 0.001%.

The probability of us being at those levels within independent samples successively for 5 years based on random chance is 0.0000055%, or approximately 1 in 18 million.

That is not random chance, unless you think Chris Collins is among the most unlucky guys on planet earth. My own eyes, from watching us try to close out these games repeatedly over the years, tell me otherwise - a portion of it is probably bad luck, but there are other factors at play.

 

[peatymeanis]

Yeah so in the last 5 years (since 2017, which you might recall was a pretty good year for us), here are our "Luck" rankings in KenPom - this is basically a measure of expected wins vs realized wins based on point differential:
2018: -.068, good for 326 / 351 teams, 92rd percentile
2019: -.111, good for 348 / 353 teams, 98th percentile
2020: -.087, good for 334 / 353 teams, 95th percentile
2021: -.091, good for 331 / 357 teams, 92nd percentile
2022 (ytd): -.141, good for 353 / 358 teams, 98th percentile

We have literally been in the bottom decile of winning close games for 5 years straight, never even better than the bottom 8%.

The probability of us being in the bottom decile for 5 years straight based on random chance is 1 in 100,000, or 0.001%.

The probability of us being at those levels within the sample successively for 5 years based on random chance is 0.0000055%, or approximately 1 in 18 million.

That is not random chance, unless you think Chris Collins is among the most unlikely guys on planet earth.

Gordie will tell you that it’ll all turn around soon once Collins gets his feng shui adjusted. Or hires a shaman to identify the haunted closet in his house.

 

[NUCat320]

Yeah so in the last 5 years (since 2017, which you might recall was a pretty good year for us), here are our "Luck" rankings in KenPom - this is basically a measure of expected wins vs realized wins based on point differential (0 is normal):
2018: -.068, good for 326 / 351 teams, 92rd percentile
2019: -.111, good for 348 / 353 teams, 98th percentile
2020: -.087, good for 334 / 353 teams, 95th percentile
2021: -.091, good for 331 / 357 teams, 92nd percentile
2022 (ytd): -.141, good for 353 / 358 teams, 98th percentile
(Average is 0.0996, which rounds to 0.1, which means in a 30 game season we are costing ourselves an average of 3 games per year due to bad "luck")

We have literally been in the bottom decile of winning close games for 5 years straight, never even better than the bottom 8%.

The probability of us being in the bottom decile for 5 years straight based on random chance is 1 in 100,000, or 0.001%.

The probability of us being at those levels within independent samples successively for 5 years based on random chance is 0.0000055%, or approximately 1 in 18 million.

That is not random chance, unless you think Chris Collins is among the most unlucky guys on planet earth. My own eyes, from watching us try to close out these games repeatedly over the years, tell me otherwise - a portion of it is probably bad luck, but there are other factors at play.

This is amazing. Thank you for posting.

 

[CappyNU]

I posted this on Twitter the other day, before the Illinois and Rutgers games, but here's a chart showing the score margin over the last 4 "eras" of NU basketball - Carmody pre-NIT, Carmody NIT-end, Collins through tourney, and Collins since.

First, in all games:

and second, in only conference games:

Especially in conference games, you can see that the early Carmody teams had a sweet spot of losing by 11-15, though during the NIT years it was much more evenly distributed though still with quite a high share of blowouts. Likewise, Collins kept a similar profile through the tourney years in regards to losses by 16+, except he rarely won by 11 or more, while winning a lot more games by 10 or less than Carmody. The last five years, however, have seen the outright blowouts decrease significantly on both sides of the equation, but so have the close wins, while the close losses are at unprecedented levels.