Irrational optimism?

[Deeringfish]

I feel really good about the convergence of the bowl win, new facility, and favorable schedule next year. The potential for enhancing our recruiting and program vibe is pretty strong IMO. Our recruiting has been solid the last few years but we need a couple of back to back top six (in the B1G) recruiting classes to get out of the middle of the pack. Let's not forget that player development should be enhanced by better access to better facilities but that will take longer to show as players continue to develop over 4 to 5 years. Even a 1% bump in development across the board when you have 100 guys is like having an extra guy on the roster.

If the BB team can break into the NCAA or even have a nice showing in the NIT, the WR renovations will also create buzz. NU athletics should be able to leverage success combined with evidence of commitment and growth of the programs in a number of ways. News feeds on all this stuff needs to be going out as fast that they can think of new ways to spin it.

I loved what one of the announcers said after the bowl. It was something like, Pat Fitzgerald has been involved in 11 of the programs 13 bowl games as a player, assistant, or head coach. That is a really cool sound bit. Much better than, "Only the second bowl win in school history." or "Monkey on your back nonsense." that plays up failure more than success.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Not trying to throw cold water on this, but remember 2013? All the pieces appeared to be in place, then the wheels came off.

I only invoke this unpleasantry as a reminder that each season is unique, and often seems to defy expectations. The convergence of many positive indicators really has little predictive value. And it is human nature to find reasons for optimism and construe them as certainty.

I am optimistic about the trajectory of our program but am always cautionary about expectations for upcoming seasons. There is so much variability in this game, it is just hard for me to think in these terms. There is a pretty fine line between a 10-win season and a 5-win season. The game is very competitive. Injuries have a huge impact. Kids are, well, kids. I just try to enjoy the ride.

 

[NorthNJCatsfan]

Not trying to throw cold water on this, but remember 2013? All the pieces appeared to be in place, then the wheels came off.

I only invoke this unpleasantry as a reminder that each season is unique, and often seems to defy expectations. The convergence of many positive indicators really has little predictive value. And it is human nature to find reasons for optimism and construe them as certainty.

I am optimistic about the trajectory of our program but am always cautionary about expectations for upcoming seasons. There is so much variability in this game, it is just hard for me to think in these terms. There is a pretty fine line between a 10-win season and a 5-win season. The game is very competitive. Injuries have a huge impact. Kids are, well, kids. I just try to enjoy the ride.

Hungry Jack, Happy New Year ! I read and enjoy your posts, but a New Year's question : Stanford recruits from basically the same ( small ) prospect pool in which NU fishes, but manages to run a program that consistently performs well. In an "off " year, they win 9 games and beat UNC in their bowl game. They run a program with good kids and a reasonable amount of integrity ( OK, Yes, they throw several commits off the bus each year, but at this point , their recruits are intelligent enough to realize that their offer is conditional and they may get bumped, but are willing to risk it for the opportunity to play for a program that has a real chance to play in a major bowl every year ). Yes, the weather is mahvelous and co-eds are pretty, BUT ....
NU is a top caliber research university situated on a beautiful lakeside campus adjacent to one of America's great cities. The team plays on national TV each week ( ie BTN platform ) and is now about to benefit from a state of the art Lakeside practice facility. Game day atmosphere? Is it really substantially better in Palo Alto? ( In fairness, I do wonder if the Cardinal football admission standards are lower than NUs, but leave that for board mavens to sort out. ) Anyway, after this long preamble, my question : why do so many NU fans accept the NU rollercoaster? Should not NU be able to run a consistently good -- if not excellent-- program? I vote yes, consistently good --if not excellent-- performance should be expected-- just as it is for Medill, Kellogg, Pritzker, etc. NU football should be able to make the top 25 regularly, not occasionally. It does not succeed in this regard, ultimately, because it is not expected to. Why not??

"Whatever you lay your hand to, do it with thy might."

 

[Deeringfish]

Hungry Jack, Happy New Year ! I read and enjoy your posts, but a New Year's question : Stanford recruits from basically the same ( small ) prospect pool in which NU fishes, but manages to run a program that consistently performs well. In an "off " year, they win 9 games and beat UNC in their bowl game. They run a program with good kids and a reasonable amount of integrity ( OK, Yes, they throw several commits off the bus each year, but at this point , their recruits are intelligent enough to realize that their offer is conditional and they may get bumped, but are willing to risk it for the opportunity to play for a program that has a real chance to play in a major bowl every year ). Yes, the weather is mahvelous and co-eds are pretty, BUT ....
NU is a top caliber research university situated on a beautiful lakeside campus adjacent to one of America's great cities. The team plays on national TV each week ( ie BTN platform ) and is now about to benefit from a state of the art Lakeside practice facility. Game day atmosphere? Is it really substantially better in Palo Alto? ( In fairness, I do wonder if the Cardinal football admission standards are lower than NUs, but leave that for board mavens to sort out. ) Anyway, after this long preamble, my question : why do so many NU fans accept the NU rollercoaster? Should not NU be able to run a consistently good -- if not excellent-- program? I vote yes, consistently good --if not excellent-- performance should be expected-- just as it is for Medill, Kellogg, Pritzker, etc. NU football should be able to make the top 25 regularly, not occasionally. It does not succeed in this regard, ultimately, because it is not expected to. Why not??

"Whatever you lay your hand to, do it with thy might."

Have you ever been to Palo Alto? I grew up in Chicago, went to Palo Alto for a week when I was 12 and still long for it.

I'm not your your expectation of excellence, equalling a result of excellence necessarily translates into reality. But is it s good attitude and better than expecting failure. I don't think anyone of importance is expecting their efforts will end in failure.

 

[Catreporter]

Stanford had a much bigger football tradition to build on, plus its other advantages. But we're gaining on them (didn't we beat them last year?). All the academic-minded private schools have tough rows to hoe, including Stanford, who had some very down seasons in the 90s, I believe. Stability in coaches helps. Harbaugh was succeeded by his top assistant Shaw, who I believe was a Stanford grad. Cutcliffe is seemingly at Duke for the long haul. That makes a difference. Boston College, which had a great run post-Flutie, hit a decline when there were a bunch of quick coaching changes that didn't work out. Syracuse has been a bit of revolving door too, resulting in them taking a big step back (gave up 73 points to Pitt in their last game!). For that matter, Pitt tried a bunch of coaches including Wannstedt before getting better. But you wonder how long will Narduzzi stay?

 

[Hungry Jack]

Hungry Jack, Happy New Year ! I read and enjoy your posts, but a New Year's question : Stanford recruits from basically the same ( small ) prospect pool in which NU fishes, but manages to run a program that consistently performs well. In an "off " year, they win 9 games and beat UNC in their bowl game. They run a program with good kids and a reasonable amount of integrity ( OK, Yes, they throw several commits off the bus each year, but at this point , their recruits are intelligent enough to realize that their offer is conditional and they may get bumped, but are willing to risk it for the opportunity to play for a program that has a real chance to play in a major bowl every year ). Yes, the weather is mahvelous and co-eds are pretty, BUT ....
NU is a top caliber research university situated on a beautiful lakeside campus adjacent to one of America's great cities. The team plays on national TV each week ( ie BTN platform ) and is now about to benefit from a state of the art Lakeside practice facility. Game day atmosphere? Is it really substantially better in Palo Alto? ( In fairness, I do wonder if the Cardinal football admission standards are lower than NUs, but leave that for board mavens to sort out. ) Anyway, after this long preamble, my question : why do so many NU fans accept the NU rollercoaster? Should not NU be able to run a consistently good -- if not excellent-- program? I vote yes, consistently good --if not excellent-- performance should be expected-- just as it is for Medill, Kellogg, Pritzker, etc. NU football should be able to make the top 25 regularly, not occasionally. It does not succeed in this regard, ultimately, because it is not expected to. Why not??

"Whatever you lay your hand to, do it with thy might."

As GCG has noted, Stanford has some distinct advantages. CA weather is awesome. I feel it every time I go to Santa Barbara. It matters.

Stanford also has a much better local pool of HS football talent. CA produces a ton of talent. Illinois does not. We HAVE to venture into other regions (most notably TX, but also mid/south Atlantic) to build a good class. Stanford CAN and does go to the Midwest, Texas and East Coast to get talent, but they have plenty in their backyard.

So Stanford sets a standard that NU should aspire to, but we have a tougher hill to climb.

 

[hdhntr1]

I feel really good about the convergence of the bowl win, new facility, and favorable schedule next year. The potential for enhancing our recruiting and program vibe is pretty strong IMO. Our recruiting has been solid the last few years but we need a couple of back to back top six (in the B1G) recruiting classes to get out of the middle of the pack. Let's not forget that player development should be enhanced by better access to better facilities but that will take longer to show as players continue to develop over 4 to 5 years. Even a 1% bump in development across the board when you have 100 guys is like having an extra guy on the roster.

If the BB team can break into the NCAA or even have a nice showing in the NIT, the WR renovations will also create buzz. NU athletics should be able to leverage success combined with evidence of commitment and growth of the programs in a number of ways. News feeds on all this stuff needs to be going out as fast that they can think of new ways to spin it.

I loved what one of the announcers said after the bowl. It was something like, Pat Fitzgerald has been involved in 11 of the programs 13 bowl games as a player, assistant, or head coach. That is a really cool sound bit. Much better than, "Only the second bowl win in school history." or "Monkey on your back nonsense." that plays up failure more than success.

It was the third win

 

[hdhntr1]

Hungry Jack, Happy New Year ! I read and enjoy your posts, but a New Year's question : Stanford recruits from basically the same ( small ) prospect pool in which NU fishes, but manages to run a program that consistently performs well. In an "off " year, they win 9 games and beat UNC in their bowl game. They run a program with good kids and a reasonable amount of integrity ( OK, Yes, they throw several commits off the bus each year, but at this point , their recruits are intelligent enough to realize that their offer is conditional and they may get bumped, but are willing to risk it for the opportunity to play for a program that has a real chance to play in a major bowl every year ). Yes, the weather is mahvelous and co-eds are pretty, BUT ....
NU is a top caliber research university situated on a beautiful lakeside campus adjacent to one of America's great cities. The team plays on national TV each week ( ie BTN platform ) and is now about to benefit from a state of the art Lakeside practice facility. Game day atmosphere? Is it really substantially better in Palo Alto? ( In fairness, I do wonder if the Cardinal football admission standards are lower than NUs, but leave that for board mavens to sort out. ) Anyway, after this long preamble, my question : why do so many NU fans accept the NU rollercoaster? Should not NU be able to run a consistently good -- if not excellent-- program? I vote yes, consistently good --if not excellent-- performance should be expected-- just as it is for Medill, Kellogg, Pritzker, etc. NU football should be able to make the top 25 regularly, not occasionally. It does not succeed in this regard, ultimately, because it is not expected to. Why not??

"Whatever you lay your hand to, do it with thy might."

First Stanford is in a top 3 or 4 state as far as FB talent and we are in IL. Second, the weather. Frankly not sure why anyone with both offers and not living in BIG territory would chose NU over Stanford unless immediate opening for PT.

 

[NorthNJCatsfan]

As GCG has noted, Stanford has some distinct advantages. CA weather is awesome. I feel it every time I go to Santa Barbara. It matters.

Stanford also has a much better local pool of HS football talent. CA produces a ton of talent. Illinois does not. We HAVE to venture into other regions (most notably TX, but also mid/south Atlantic) to build a good class. Stanford CAN and does go to the Midwest, Texas and East Coast to get talent, but they have plenty in their backyard.

So Stanford sets a standard that NU should aspire to, but we have a tougher hill to climb.

Yes, all true. My point is more that , while we may not yet be at a Stanford level, we should " expect victory" and, as fans, not be satisfied with 10 wins seasons followed by losing or middling seasons. I believe NU should be able to consistently put winning seasons together, with losing or middling seasons being an exception. With the sort of year that Deeringfish is rationally looking forward to next year, let's hope that 3 winning years in a row will be the start of a new normal.

Deeringfish, I have indeed been to Stanford and enjoyed a beautiful January afternoon in my shorts and tee shirt; so I do understand that weather is a real factor.

In any event, I remain a B1G ' Cats fan regardless of results.

 

[stpaulcat]

I feel really good about the convergence of the bowl win, new facility, and favorable schedule next year. The potential for enhancing our recruiting and program vibe is pretty strong IMO. Our recruiting has been solid the last few years but we need a couple of back to back top six (in the B1G) recruiting classes to get out of the middle of the pack. Let's not forget that player development should be enhanced by better access to better facilities but that will take longer to show as players continue to develop over 4 to 5 years. Even a 1% bump in development across the board when you have 100 guys is like having an extra guy on the roster.

If the BB team can break into the NCAA or even have a nice showing in the NIT, the WR renovations will also create buzz. NU athletics should be able to leverage success combined with evidence of commitment and growth of the programs in a number of ways. News feeds on all this stuff needs to be going out as fast that they can think of new ways to spin it.

I loved what one of the announcers said after the bowl. It was something like, Pat Fitzgerald has been involved in 11 of the programs 13 bowl games as a player, assistant, or head coach. That is a really cool sound bit. Much better than, "Only the second bowl win in school history." or "Monkey on your back nonsense." that plays up failure more than success.

"I feel really good about the convergence of the bowl win, new facility, and favorable schedule next year."

Never, ever, when assessing NU football prospects, assume the convergence of good things equals a consequent good thing. You will only be disappointed. Best to remain darkly pessimistic, and thereby to increase your chances of being delightfully surprised.

 

[NorthNJCatsfan]

"I feel really good about the convergence of the bowl win, new facility, and favorable schedule next year."

Never, ever, when assessing NU football prospects, assume the convergence of good things equals a consequent good thing. You will only be disappointed. Best to remain darkly pessimistic, and thereby to increase your chances of being delightfully surprised.

Res Ipsa Loquitor

 

[PZAZ]

Why NU vs. Stanford? I can think of several reasons. Lakeside campus.
Chicago. Proximity to family. Coaches. Connection with players on visit. All of these matter, some more than others depending on the player.

 

[Deeringfish]

"I feel really good about the convergence of the bowl win, new facility, and favorable schedule next year."

Never, ever, when assessing NU football prospects, assume the convergence of good things equals a consequent good thing. You will only be disappointed. Best to remain darkly pessimistic, and thereby to increase your chances of being delightfully surprised.

I get it. I've been a fan since my dad took me to my first game in 64 at age 9. They kill me sometimes. I hated last year loss to Tenn. I really do feel like incrementally things are getting better. I still compare the last 21 years with the 21 before but on my most patient of days I think how good NU could be in 21 more years if the trend continues.

 

[Deeringfish]

To follow up on my long term optimistic view.

NU RECORD
2007-2016 73-54 57% all under Fitz
1997-2006 40-72 40 %
1987-2005 36-75 32% This includes the great 95 and 96 seasons
1977-1986 15-93 14%

Following this trajectory NU should win about 70% of it's games over the next ten years. That ought to put us up with the big boys.

I didn't factor in ties.
The ten years prior to 77 we were 31% which isn't so great either.

 

[LACatFan]

I've lived in both Evanston and Palo Alto for pretty much equivalent periods. Evanston wins.

 

[Katatonic]

Both schools recruit nationally and there is no reason why NU can't be closer to Stanford when it comes to recruiting as more recruits see that academic schools can be more than competitive consistently.

The biggest difference btwn Stanford and the NU (where their down year, breaking in a new QB, is a 10 win season) is that they are much better in recruiting and developing the O-line (same thing we see at Wisconsin).

Like I have stated many a time before, we're not going to see the 'Cats win the West, much less win a B1G title (or have consistent 9-10 win seasons), until things improve on the O-line.

I've lived in both Evanston and Palo Alto for pretty much equivalent periods. Evanston wins.

Agree that Evanston is the cooler city/town.

 

[NJCat]

The biggest difference btwn Stanford and the NU (where their down year, breaking in a new QB, is a 10 win season) is that they are much better in recruiting and developing the O-line (same thing we see at Wisconsin).
.

i.e. Coaching?

 

[Katatonic]

^ Didn't want to go there.

But if things don't improve and we don't see an above average O-line within the next couple of years, things will have to change (look how things improved for UM and PSU at the O-line when they brought in new OCs and O-line coaches).