Is there a scenario where it's *not* Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Washington?

[NUCat320]

I'd say two gigantic longshots:

1. Penn State whips Wisconsin - 63-0ish - and gets the nod over OSU due to "conference champions" and "already beat 'em" groundswell.

2. Clemson gets blown out - 63-0ish - and any among OU-OSU or B1G championship ends in a similar blowout.

To answer my initial question, No.


Weird that the Pac-12 game was on a Friday night. Tough to get the casual audience in that time slot. (I didn't know it was happening until the second half started.) I guess it's Fox's decision to a) get two nights of prime time, and b) not compete against the SEC powerhouse for ratings.

 

[Hungry Jack]

I think Bama, OSU, and UW are locks now.

If Clemson gets blown out, the committee might have a tough call between UM and whomever wins the B1G. Still, UM is most likely the beneficiary if Clemson falls hard. Given the stickiness of the CFP rankings and incremental approach, I think OU is out.

I think PSU could go if they destroy Wiscy, with the logic that they also beat UM.
If Wiscy annhilates PSU, maybe the committee somehow vaults #6 to #4 on the basis that #5 should not advance without having played.

Overall, I'd throw out:
P=75 that Clemson goes
P=20 that UM goes
P=5 that Wiscy or PSU goes

 

[Windy City Cat Fan]

Why would Clemson have to be blown out - if they lose they are a two loss team with two mediocre losses, where wisconsins two losses (assuming they win) are to the #2 and #5 teams by one score. I guess the argument would be to spread the wealth to more conferences instead of loading up with the big ten.

 

[NUCat320]

Why would Clemson have to be blown out - if they lose they are a two loss team with two mediocre losses, where wisconsins two losses (assuming they win) are to the #2 and #5 teams by one score. I guess the argument would be to spread the wealth to more conferences instead of loading up with the big ten.

My perception is that Clemson has been at or near the top all season, and its only blemish is a one-point loss.

This is where the BCS had value - objectivity. I perceive Clemson to be a top four team because they've been a top four team since August. (More accurately, I perceive that they are perceived ...)

Your point is solid though, especially because Clemson wouldn't have the conference champion title.

 

[Alaskawildkat]

Why would Clemson have to be blown out - if they lose they are a two loss team with two mediocre losses, where wisconsins two losses (assuming they win) are to the #2 and #5 teams by one score. I guess the argument would be to spread the wealth to more conferences instead of loading up with the big ten.

Regarding "spreading the wealth" does anyone know if there is a caveat (like there was under the BCS system) that when one conference gets two teams into the top bowl(s) they get a reduced payout for the second one? In other words it is not 6 million times two, but 6 million plus a reduced amount like 2 million.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Why would Clemson have to be blown out - if they lose they are a two loss team with two mediocre losses, where wisconsins two losses (assuming they win) are to the #2 and #5 teams by one score. I guess the argument would be to spread the wealth to more conferences instead of loading up with the big ten.

It's a good question and one that hinges upon the relative merits of good wins and bad losses.

Clemson's overall resume is better than Wiscy's on the basis of "good" wins, where "good" is a CFP ranking as of this week.

Clemson "good" wins: Auburn, Louisville, FSU
Wiscy "good" wins: PSU, LSU

Clemson losses to Pitt and VaTech are not so egregious based on CFP rankings. Both of those teams are top 25 now.

If anything, UM's resume might be the best of any 2-loss team
Michigan "good" wins: PSU, Wisc, CO. At the moment, these 3 teams are top 10 in the CFP. That's impressive. The issue is UM's "bad" loss to Iowa. I think most of us feel that Iowa has played really well of late, but the CFP does not rank it.

So it is a really tough choice. No clear choice among these 3.