Is UCLA beatable?
- Thread starter stpaulcat
- Start date
I mean, of course. We won at least two games as tough as Saturday's. It won't be easy at all, but we can get em. Future Big Ten matchup, a chance for total sweet sixteen glory, and we get to face a non-one seed who has some injuries? I'll take it!
A team that lost to Princeton today beat them last week, so…yes?
We won’t be favored, but we will be hungry. Would be a program-defining win, and a welcome message on behalf of the entire Big Ten.
We won’t be favored, but we will be hungry. Would be a program-defining win, and a welcome message on behalf of the entire Big Ten.
Beatable? Yes. Easy? Definitely not. We will need all of Boo, Chase, Ty, Brooks to score. We will need to rebound. Our D will have to (as always) lock down. Let’s do it!!!!! Go ‘Cats!
Bruins seem to be a transition offense. They’re killing it on the fast breaks, but UNC has been messing with their half court a bit. Shot clock violations and defensive rebounds.
Yes. UCLA can be beat. NU knows their game, because they play it and seen it in the Big Ten (tough, physical). It won't necessarily be easy like others say, but victory is certainly possible. This is a very good UCLA team, but they are not the extremely hard-to-beat UCLA dynasty of the 60s and 70s.
They’ve got two guys - Jacquez and Campbell — who started when they went to the final four two years ago. Campbell is 6-2 in NCAA tourneys as a point guard. Both are four year starters.
Their losses:
Illinois and Baylor in November in Vegas
At USC and at Arizona in January
In the Pac-12 (?) final against Arizona in Vegas last week
The PAC-12 isn’t particularly good, but they never stumbled.
Their number 3 scorer, Jaylen Clark, was injured two weeks ago.
Along with IU and Purdue, and MSU, probably one of the four best teams NU has played this season. NU is 4-0 against the other three.
It’ll be tough!
Their losses:
Illinois and Baylor in November in Vegas
At USC and at Arizona in January
In the Pac-12 (?) final against Arizona in Vegas last week
The PAC-12 isn’t particularly good, but they never stumbled.
Their number 3 scorer, Jaylen Clark, was injured two weeks ago.
Along with IU and Purdue, and MSU, probably one of the four best teams NU has played this season. NU is 4-0 against the other three.
It’ll be tough!
The are supposedly down a couple starters and they lost to AZ in a lower scoring game who just lost to a 15 seed. So absolutely
And then the revenge rematch against Gonzaga to get to the elite eight
Cats will get to find out how good of a defender Robbie Beran really is because Jaime Jacquez is the real deal. It will be quite a feat to pull this one off and, IMHO, Chase Audige is going to have to have a fantastic game to do it. That's the one spot on the floor where the Cats could have a clear advantage. Amari Bailey is a really good player, but I don't think he's faced a defender like CA. If UCLA hadn't lost Jaylen Clark to injury, they are probably a #1 seed and possibly the #1 overall.
Did I read correctly this morning that NU is a seven point dog? With two teams that bang like that? Mmmmmmm ... tempting.
But more importantly, if the Cats can just step it up ... just a tad. They usually box out better than they did against Boise State.
And if Berry can shoot like that while Audige takes better care of the ball, I hope the Cats are in this one down the stretch.
But more importantly, if the Cats can just step it up ... just a tad. They usually box out better than they did against Boise State.
And if Berry can shoot like that while Audige takes better care of the ball, I hope the Cats are in this one down the stretch.
I think Bona will play against us, they just had no reason to use him yesterday. Clark won’t. Even without Clark they might be the best team we’ve played all year.
Yesterday was a really atypical NU game.
- NU was atrocious at defensive rebounding (20 offensive boards allowed)
- NU hardly took the ball away from Boise (only 9 turnovers, I’m pretty sure only two in the second half)
- NU shot 49% from the field
Now, UCLA protects the ball a lot as well — 10 turnovers were second-best in the Pac 12 in-conference.
But…UCLA only scored 59 points in the conference championship game, against the same Arizona team that just lost to Princeton (transitive!), and they did it because they shot 36%.
Like Boise, they have a lot of good outside shooters, but no *great* outside shooters. Singleton is at 43%, but Campbell is at 34 , Bailey similar, and Jacquez at 30%. Singleton has been a career bench player prior to this season, and only gets 9ppg. Of course, UCLA is very very good, and Boise is very very ‘ehhh’.
NU’s margin for error is small, but I’ve got confidence that our incredible purple fanbase will see them through.
- NU was atrocious at defensive rebounding (20 offensive boards allowed)
- NU hardly took the ball away from Boise (only 9 turnovers, I’m pretty sure only two in the second half)
- NU shot 49% from the field
Now, UCLA protects the ball a lot as well — 10 turnovers were second-best in the Pac 12 in-conference.
But…UCLA only scored 59 points in the conference championship game, against the same Arizona team that just lost to Princeton (transitive!), and they did it because they shot 36%.
Like Boise, they have a lot of good outside shooters, but no *great* outside shooters. Singleton is at 43%, but Campbell is at 34 , Bailey similar, and Jacquez at 30%. Singleton has been a career bench player prior to this season, and only gets 9ppg. Of course, UCLA is very very good, and Boise is very very ‘ehhh’.
NU’s margin for error is small, but I’ve got confidence that our incredible purple fanbase will see them through.
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NU is back in their comfort zone with the world reminding them they're not good enough.
UCLA never broke a sweat yesterday. So one-sided I didn't think there was much to learn watching the beat down.
But the bigger opponent NU will face Saturday will be themselves. They CAN win, but they must summon their best game.
NU CAN win. GO CATS!!!
The statistical systems that don't even like NU much still have this as about a 15% win for NU, and that's not accounting for injuries. NU is a dog but of course can absolutely win.
We’re currently 7.5 dogs and the O/U is 126.5. I thought we’d be 10+ point dogs so this seems reasonable.
I am getting confident that we will win.
UCLA is a good team missing a good (Barnhizer-sized) guard, their best defender.
Their two bigs are athletic and foul prone. The starter (Bona) may not play due to injury.
We play tough defense. They also make a solid effort on defense.
Nwuba is 6'10" 255. Senior from Nigeria. 10 minutes a game. Started last two games.
Bona 6'10" 235 freshman from Nigeria. Injured on 3/10. Did not play in first round game or conference championship.
After that they have
Jaquez - 6'7" 225. Very good player. Scores inside. Rebounds.
Campbell - 5'11" 180 Good point guard who scores 13 ppg. 5 assist, 1.6 to, 1.2 stls. Good player.
Bailey - 6'5" 185. 11 ppg. Decent freshman who turns it over a bit. 2.4 per game.
Singleton - 6'4" 205. 5th year at UCLA. 11 ppg. Shoots 45% from 3.
Andrews - 6'2" 170. freshman. 15 mins
McClendon - 6'2" 210 freshman 10 mins.
If Bona cant play, Nicholson has to get the better of Nwuba.
If they go small (without Nwuba) we have a significant size advantage in the frontcourt, with Martinelli, Verhoeven, Nicholson, Beran and Barnhizer all available.
UCLA is a good team missing a good (Barnhizer-sized) guard, their best defender.
Their two bigs are athletic and foul prone. The starter (Bona) may not play due to injury.
We play tough defense. They also make a solid effort on defense.
Nwuba is 6'10" 255. Senior from Nigeria. 10 minutes a game. Started last two games.
Bona 6'10" 235 freshman from Nigeria. Injured on 3/10. Did not play in first round game or conference championship.
After that they have
Jaquez - 6'7" 225. Very good player. Scores inside. Rebounds.
Campbell - 5'11" 180 Good point guard who scores 13 ppg. 5 assist, 1.6 to, 1.2 stls. Good player.
Bailey - 6'5" 185. 11 ppg. Decent freshman who turns it over a bit. 2.4 per game.
Singleton - 6'4" 205. 5th year at UCLA. 11 ppg. Shoots 45% from 3.
Andrews - 6'2" 170. freshman. 15 mins
McClendon - 6'2" 210 freshman 10 mins.
If Bona cant play, Nicholson has to get the better of Nwuba.
If they go small (without Nwuba) we have a significant size advantage in the frontcourt, with Martinelli, Verhoeven, Nicholson, Beran and Barnhizer all available.
I just hope this isn't the game where someone like a Singleton goes off and hits a bunch of 3's.
Right... but if UCLA is missing both Bona and Clark, it seems like we should beat them. Audige will be on Singleton. We don't need to double the post at all if its Nwuba at the 5.
The guys picking up minutes for UCLA are both freshman guards.
Maybe the line is so high because Bona is playing...
or
Maybe they are a lot better defensively than I'm giving them credit.
If their point guard Campbell dominates Buie, we will be in trouble.
Campbell is a senior point guard who has started four years and who has taken a team to the Final Four. He’s not an NBA player, but he’s an excellent college player.
But this is a game NU can win.
All the talk has Bona playing, but Clark went out for the season with an injury during the Pac-10 tourney.
Bailey is much better than "a decent freshman". He was the a top 10 recruit, ranked as high as #3 overall, and is a future NBA player. He's an explosive scorer, but he doesn't defend as well as Jaylen Clark, who was named the Pac-10 defensive player of the year.
Cats have to win the point guard battle, but as 320 notes Campbell is a high quality veteran guard. Boo's defense is going to be a key as Campbell is the motor to UCLA's offense.
The danger Singleton presents is from 3-point range. He's not nearly the threat using size inside against a smaller defender, so I'd have Audige matchup with Bailey and have Barnhizer and Berry matchup with him. Cats need to keep Bailey away from the basket and keep Singleton from getting hot from distance.
And, yes, I think UCLA is much better defensively than you are giving them credit for. Mick Cronin is a defense first coach from the Huggins tree. I suspect a low-scoring game and the O/U seems to reflect that.
You aren't helping my confidence!
But I appreciate the information about Bona's injury status and Bailey's future.
Maybe Audige guarding Bailey is a good thing.
Berry will be more likely to stay on Singleton - Audige tends to roam a bit and try to make plays.
If Bona plays, then we just play it straight with Nicholson and Verhoeven off the bench. Gotta go inside and get him in foul trouble.
Ball screens should get Buie free. even if Campbell is quicker... but as you say, if Campbell can get past Buie without help, its a problem.
I hope that Gary Barnett is in the stands at game tonite. Expect Victory is all I got?? Would be huge for our program
If Bona starts, I have doubts as to if he makes it through the game with that shoulder injury and banging with Big Matt. I know all too well about bum shoulders.
Will be interesting to see how Cronin uses Bona. I love how Nicholson has developed this year, but I don't think NU can win with him being a key to the game. NU has to win the guard battle and it's six good guards between the two teams doing battle.
Sorry about your shoulder!
Going forward - hard to say. They lost their best defender recently.
But for the season, yes.
4th best defense according to Evan Miya. (we're 24th)
2nd best defense according to Torvik. He has us 16th.
But defense requires 5 guys...
