KenPom

[ricko654321]

Now we are back up to #56, which isn't so much the point I wanted to make.

We are #186 in adjusted offensive efficiency at 101.3 pts per 100 possessions... and up to #6 in adj defensive efficiency at 88.0 pts per 100 possessions. I don't recall seeing a single digit number next to our name in either of those columns before.

The 5 teams ahead of us are Tenn (#1 D at 80.6, and #2 overall), Houston (#2 D at 83.1, and #1 overall), Rutgers (#3 D at 84.6, and #15 overall... they are #112 in offensive efficiency (104.9) so actually pretty similar profile to us just a bit better on both sides), UConn (#4 D at 87.5, and #4 overall), and Arkansas (#5 D at 87.6, and #9 overall).

Point being that if we can maintain this level of defense, and just find a way to improve modestly on offense... there is potential. Both are easier said than done, particularly against a B1G schedule, but we will see.

Closest 'inverted comp' I could find to us is Missouri (another surprising emerging team this year) - they are #3 in offensive efficiency (117.6) and #154 in defensive efficiency (101.3) - translating to #33 overall.

Random aside - Pitt is up to #63 after wins over UNC and UVa and I think that is going to keep going higher... as discussed in the thread on NET rankings we are cheering for the Panthers so that one looks like less of a bad loss.

 

[SDakaGordie]

That list of defenses ahead of us is certainly rarified air. But it’s no guarantee game to game, as we know - UCONN just lost two in a row. So, given it’s likely to be such a battle each game, injuries will be a key determining factor.

 

[rwhitney014]

Does Kenpom have stats/rankings on foul rate? Because it feels like we're getting whistled a lot less than...ever. While playing better defense than ever. Which has a compounding effect because tight defense isn't leading to excess free throws for the opponent, which is how you have a game where you shoot 32-40 from the line and they shoot 5-7 or whatever it was.

That's athleticism, size, anticipation, positioning, and more than anything else - it's want-to. Man, I hope we can find ways to score.

 

[ricko654321]

Does Kenpom have stats/rankings on foul rate? Because it feels like we're getting whistled a lot less than...ever. While playing better defense than ever. Which has a compounding effect because tight defense isn't leading to excess free throws for the opponent, which is how you have a game where you shoot 32-40 from the line and they shoot 5-7 or whatever it was.

That's athleticism, size, anticipation, positioning, and more than anything else - it's want-to. Man, I hope we can find ways to score.

Not in the public section. They might in the pay portion of it. Or maybe Bart Torvik does, I know some on the board look at his site.

In any event, I wholly agree with that observation. Our positioning and usage of bodies and hands (less hands!) seems so much better than in past years. Lowery and Collins probably get some of the credit for that, the players get a lot of it too. Seems like everyone is buying into the identity. The best way to be in good position in on-ball defense is to be active and have a quick first step so you can avoid getting out of position and needing to recover. But even on helping we seem to be way smarter with avoiding fouls when doing that.

 

[cats_man_too]

Does Kenpom have stats/rankings on foul rate? Because it feels like we're getting whistled a lot less than...ever. While playing better defense than ever. Which has a compounding effect because tight defense isn't leading to excess free throws for the opponent, which is how you have a game where you shoot 32-40 from the line and they shoot 5-7 or whatever it was.

That's athleticism, size, anticipation, positioning, and more than anything else - it's want-to. Man, I hope we can find ways to score.

Stats say we're getting about 2 fewer fouls per game this year than last (~15.8 vs 17.6). Our opponents are getting more fouls this season (~18.4 vs 17). So we're +2.6 fouls vs our opponents this year instead of -0.6 fouls vs our opponents last year to this point.

 

[ricko654321]

Does Kenpom have stats/rankings on foul rate? Because it feels like we're getting whistled a lot less than...ever. While playing better defense than ever. Which has a compounding effect because tight defense isn't leading to excess free throws for the opponent, which is how you have a game where you shoot 32-40 from the line and they shoot 5-7 or whatever it was.

That's athleticism, size, anticipation, positioning, and more than anything else - it's want-to. Man, I hope we can find ways to score.

These aren't fancy stats, but simple numbers from the B1G website:

- We are 206-272 from the FT line across 14 games, so 14.7-19.4 on average. We are 5th in FTs attempted in the conference, 2nd in % (76%, behind PSU), and 4th in total FTs made.
- Our opponents are 147-214, which is 10.5-15.3 on average. Opponents shooting at a 69% clip. Differential of 4 FTA and 4 FTM made per game. We are about in the middle of the pack in opponents' FTA - t6 out of 14 teams.

Now this is a whopper that is unsustainable, heavily influenced by the IL game where we were 32-40 and they were 6-10, but... through 3 conference games:
- We are 63-81 from the FT, translating to 21-27 on average per game, which is 78%. That is #1 in the conference in %, #1 in FTA per game, and if you combine those two obviously #1 in FTM per game. 2nd in FTA per game is Michigan at 76 thru 3 (25.3 per game). After that Purdue at 66 thru 3 (or 22 per game). If my rough mental math was correct (I didn't bother to copy/paste the stats into Excel) then I think the conference average this season with most teams having played 3 games is 15.8 FTA per game.
- Our opponents are 30-42 from the FT line, or 10-14 on average per game (71%, perfectly respectable). That's slightly better than average for the conference - the worst fouling offender is Illinois which has yielded 68 FT thru 3 games (22.7 per - thanks to us), and the most disciplined defensive team is Purdue at 29 FTA thru 3 games (9.7 per game).

You put those together and we've had an advantage of 13 attempts per game thru 3 games, and an advantage of 11 makes per game. That is useful. Oh, and if you remove the IL game we still have a positive differential - it's 31-41 for us vs. 24-32 for our opponents.

Could be interesting to monitor if that positive FT differential will persist as the conference season goes on.

 

[ricko654321]

These aren't fancy stats, but simple numbers from the B1G website:

- We are 206-272 from the FT line across 14 games, so 14.7-19.4 on average. We are 5th in FTs attempted in the conference, 2nd in % (76%, behind PSU), and 4th in total FTs made.
- Our opponents are 147-214, which is 10.5-15.3 on average. Opponents shooting at a 69% clip. Differential of 4 FTA and 4 FTM made per game. We are about in the middle of the pack in opponents' FTA - t6 out of 14 teams.

Now this is a whopper that is unsustainable, heavily influenced by the IL game where we were 32-40 and they were 6-10, but... through 3 conference games:
- We are 63-81 from the FT, translating to 21-27 on average per game, which is 78%. That is #1 in the conference in %, #1 in FTA per game, and if you combine those two obviously #1 in FTM per game. 2nd in FTA per game is Michigan at 76 thru 3 (25.3 per game). After that Purdue at 66 thru 3 (or 22 per game). If my rough mental math was correct (I didn't bother to copy/paste the stats into Excel) then I think the conference average this season with most teams having played 3 games is 15.8 FTA per game.
- Our opponents are 30-42 from the FT line, or 10-14 on average per game (71%, perfectly respectable). That's slightly better than average for the conference - the worst fouling offender is Illinois which has yielded 68 FT thru 3 games (22.7 per - thanks to us), and the most disciplined defensive team is Purdue at 29 FTA thru 3 games (9.7 per game).

You put those together and we've had an advantage of 13 attempts per game thru 3 games, and an advantage of 11 makes per game. That is useful. Oh, and if you remove the IL game we still have a positive differential - it's 31-41 for us vs. 24-32 for our opponents.

Could be interesting to monitor if that positive FT differential will persist as the conference season goes on.

I just quickly looked at a couple prior years for comparison. These are B1G-only stats.

2021-2022: 11th in conference in FTA 215-309 (70%). Compared to 293-405 for our opponents, which was worst in the conference at FT yielded. Difference of -96 FTA, or 4.8 per game.

2020-2021: 14th in conference in FTA, 187-256 (73%). Compared to 265-359 for our opponents, which was middle of the pack. Difference of -103 FTA, or ~5.4 per game (19 games, missed one due to Covid).

For some reason they didn't have those stats for the 2 years before that, so my research stopped there (though it is available for 2017-18 and before). But at the least it's potentially a significant divergence from the foul differential we have seen the last two years. If we start to get a reputation as a team that is good positionally on defense, then maybe we get the benefit of the doubt more often going forward (whereas we tended to not get the benefit of the doubt from the stripes in prior years, especially when attacking the rim on offense).

 

[rwhitney014]

I just quickly looked at a couple prior years for comparison. These are B1G-only stats.

2021-2022: 11th in conference in FTA 215-309 (70%). Compared to 293-405 for our opponents, which was worst in the conference at FT yielded. Difference of -96 FTA, or 4.8 per game.

2020-2021: 14th in conference in FTA, 187-256 (73%). Compared to 265-359 for our opponents, which was middle of the pack. Difference of -103 FTA, or ~5.4 per game (19 games, missed one due to Covid).

For some reason they didn't have those stats for the 2 years before that, so my research stopped there (though it is available for 2017-18 and before). But at the least it's potentially a significant divergence from the foul differential we have seen the last two years. If we start to get a reputation as a team that is good positionally on defense, then maybe we get the benefit of the doubt more often going forward (whereas we tended to not get the benefit of the doubt from the stripes in prior years, especially when attacking the rim on offense).

This is one way to avoid the "they've lost 10 in a row, including 7 by single digits" bug.

Good numbers. Glad it backs up the observational evidence. Let's see if it keeps up. Defense tends not to slum the way offense can. And hopefully Pitt used up the ridiculous shooting night.

 

[TheC]

That list of defenses ahead of us is certainly rarified air. But it’s no guarantee game to game, as we know - UCONN just lost two in a row. So, given it’s likely to be such a battle each game, injuries will be a key determining factor.

UConn is in another universe offensively from us. They have a super talented big man who can score and at least one guard who is a dead-eye shooter. UConn just lost two games to ranked teams on the road after starting the season 14-0. They have a huge bullseye on their jerseys.

 

[CappyNU]

Does Kenpom have stats/rankings on foul rate? Because it feels like we're getting whistled a lot less than...ever. While playing better defense than ever. Which has a compounding effect because tight defense isn't leading to excess free throws for the opponent, which is how you have a game where you shoot 32-40 from the line and they shoot 5-7 or whatever it was.

That's athleticism, size, anticipation, positioning, and more than anything else - it's want-to. Man, I hope we can find ways to score.

Kenpom has a stat looking at the proportion of free throws attempted vs field goals attempted. On offense, we are getting to the line this year the most since CCC's first season, but we are ranked #136 in this stat, which is the highest we've been since KON's 1998-99 season.

Defensively, the last time we were this low at sending opponents to the FT line was in 2004, the year that Carmody won coach of the year for going 8-8 in a weak Big Ten and we lost to Mississippi Valley State which kept us out of the NIT.

 

[SDakaGordie]

UConn is in another universe offensively from us. They have a super talented big man who can score and at least one guard who is a dead-eye shooter. UConn just lost two games to ranked teams on the road after starting the season 14-0. They have a huge bullseye on their jerseys.

Yes; very true. I was just encouraged that even this amount of combined offensive and defensive talent could not bounce back like we did.