Let's talk Michigan vs. Northwestern...
- Thread starter detroitjohn
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Not too worried about Thorson playing in front of 100,000 because conventional wisdom says NU will probably play pretty conservatively to start out. Hoping that McCall picked up some weaknesses to exploit if any are to be found on the M defense, but expecting a lot of Justin Jackson runs. Of course that's the beauty of it all, Fitz could come out guns blazing with all kinds of trickeration, but it's not likely.
Only in coaching did I say that, this team has no where the talent of the late 90s early 00s UM teams that were absolutely loaded with talent at every position...just saying this is the best staff I've seen since Bo was on the sidelines
I on the other hand am moderately concerned about our QB, he has not played as we hoped within himself with few turnovers.
I don't think Northwestern is lowly at all, you must have me confused with someone else. They're the 4th best team on our schedule behind three top 5 teams. And, no, my opinion won't change unless they absolutely get rolled on Saturday and that's not going to happen I believe.
So, do you feel um's D is better than NU's? Statistically they are almost dead even and NU's played the tougher schedule.
I liked Thorson's decision making and passing arm last six quarters. Nice play,along with excellent special teams favors us,imho. Great atmosphere.
I think they are very comparable, but I do feel like UM's D is actually slightly stronger. They have given up only 184.0 ypg compared to 247.4 for NU. Also the one stat (scoring defense) that has been touted in NU's favor is actually slightly off (7.0 ppg for NU vs 7.6 for UM). The number for UM includes a pick six. The UM defense has actually given up less ppg than NU defense (6.2 ppg).
Regarding strength of schedule, here are some commonly used metrics:
Sagarin -- UM 70.76 (31) ; NU 67.76 (56)
FEI -- UM .226 (41) ; NU .278 (52)
S&P+ -- UM -0.3 (81) ; NU 0.2 (55)
So 2/3 metrics give Michigan the edge SOS wise. The one that doesn't, S&P has Michigan ranked at #3 overall in total S&P and NU at #29 overall, so I'm not sure you want to trust that one
I'll be at the game this weekend and I wouldn't be surprised if NU won the game (especially after the BS UM has pulled the last few years), but I do feel that UM defense has the upper hand, especially at home.
Just two additional points. We have been a little soft on D early in games, and stronger in the last 50 minutes or so. Jump on us early if you can, but don't expect the momentum to stay on your side. Hopefully we will be ready from minute one.
So far we are a bit ahead of the SB's on turnover margin. With really limited offensive potential for both teams, that could matter more than usual. Hopefully it will continue.
So far we are a bit ahead of the SB's on turnover margin. With really limited offensive potential for both teams, that could matter more than usual. Hopefully it will continue.
Lost in the conversation though is BYU held Michigan to zero offensive points in the second half. That and there were some momentum stealing highly questionable official calls against BYU in that game.
Oh and we must not forget the Stanford excuse about the time zone disruption for the road weary Cougars.
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Duke scored there only TD after an INT that got returned to the 26. So I'm going to say that's 4 points off our total since it's mostly the offenses fault. 3 of Ball State's points were off a fumble giving them the ball at the 50, so I'm going to take 1 point away. 7 more were off another fumble giving them the ball at the 22. So that's another 4 points off. That's a total of 9 points off. Our defense is responsible for 26 points instead of 35 which is 5.2 points per game.I think they are very comparable, but I do feel like UM's D is actually slightly stronger. They have given up only 184.0 ypg compared to 247.4 for NU. Also the one stat (scoring defense) that has been touted in NU's favor is actually slightly off (7.0 ppg for NU vs 7.6 for UM). The number for UM includes a pick six. The UM defense has actually given up less ppg than NU defense (6.2 ppg).
Regarding strength of schedule, here are some commonly used metrics:
Sagarin -- UM 70.76 (31) ; NU 67.76 (56)
FEI -- UM .226 (41) ; NU .278 (52)
S&P+ -- UM -0.3 (81) ; NU 0.2 (55)
So 2/3 metrics give Michigan the edge SOS wise. The one that doesn't, S&P has Michigan ranked at #3 overall in total S&P and NU at #29 overall, so I'm not sure you want to trust that one
I'll be at the game this weekend and I wouldn't be surprised if NU won the game (especially after the BS UM has pulled the last few years), but I do feel that UM defense has the upper hand, especially at home.
See this is how stupid you sound. Nobody cares how you score points. You gave up 7.6 points a game. We gave up 7. 7<7.6.
Strength of schedule is great... when you're comparing teams with an equal number of wins and losses. You lost to the really good team you played. We beat all our teams including 1 really good one in Stanford. We played EIU which brought our SOS way down. Also, computer metrics do not account for how BYU won 2 of their games.
Actually, Stanford 4-1, Duke 4-1, Minnesota 3-2
So, 11-4, not 11-7. If you take away the losses to Northwestern, they are 11-1, with the 1 loss to #2 TCU by 20 points closer margin than vs. NU.
You beat me to both of these points. It's amazing how proud they are of that loss to Utah.
Ok, let's leave the numbers off, since they offended you. The NU defense has had more points scored against it than the UM defense. That is a fact. UM has a higher strength of schedule according to the majority of commonly used metrics. That is a fact. Who is right will be decided on Saturday.
I said FBS teams against FBS competition so I removed the FCS games:
Stanford 4-1
Duke 3-1
Ball State 1-3
Minnesota 3-2
That's 11-7.
Actually at least 17 points (and it may be more) that NU has given up were really by the O including 2 of the three TDs because of turnovers in the red zone) Based on that our D has given up 18 points or less in 5 games or 3.6 ppg.I think they are very comparable, but I do feel like UM's D is actually slightly stronger. They have given up only 184.0 ypg compared to 247.4 for NU. Also the one stat (scoring defense) that has been touted in NU's favor is actually slightly off (7.0 ppg for NU vs 7.6 for UM). The number for UM includes a pick six. The UM defense has actually given up less ppg than NU defense (6.2 ppg).
Regarding strength of schedule, here are some commonly used metrics:
Sagarin -- UM 70.76 (31) ; NU 67.76 (56)
FEI -- UM .226 (41) ; NU .278 (52)
S&P+ -- UM -0.3 (81) ; NU 0.2 (55)
So 2/3 metrics give Michigan the edge SOS wise. The one that doesn't, S&P has Michigan ranked at #3 overall in total S&P and NU at #29 overall, so I'm not sure you want to trust that one
I'll be at the game this weekend and I wouldn't be surprised if NU won the game (especially after the BS UM has pulled the last few years), but I do feel that UM defense has the upper hand, especially at home.
The only thing you can say is we will have 2 great Ds to watch in these games. Both Os are works in progress and MI may be slightly ahead. Game may come down to field position or costly turnover.
The D is back in the BIG.
You have a fair argument for the points off turnovers, but at least the NU defense was on the field for all the points. UM defense has only been on the field for 31 points all year. With strong defenses and special teams on both sides this game will come down to who can make the least costly mistakes.
Ok... let's roll with this. Michigan has more points scored against it than Northwestern. That is a fact. If your offense throws an INT and the defense returns it for a touchdown, you're arguing that is not on the defense. If the offense throws and INT, the ball carrier gets knocked at at the 1/2 yardline. The defense then stops them 3 times, and they kick a field goal. That's on the defense according to your metric?
We also have 1 defensive touchdown. You have none. How do you want to count that? We also should've had a 2nd on the game ending INT vs Stanford, but the defender took a knee rather than risk something crazy happening.
You've had the way harder schedule. I mean 2 out of 3 metrics say so. How about this: You play the 12 hardest teams in the country and lose to them all. You go 0-12. But you have the hardest schedule, so you could argue that you would beat any team not in the top 12. Or you could just suck and be 0-12. You're basically arguing that. Would NU beat Utah? I don't know... I just know Michigan didn't beat Utah. If you want to hang your hat on losing to a tough team, go for it!
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I think they are very comparable, but I do feel like UM's D is actually slightly stronger. They have given up only 184.0 ypg compared to 247.4 for NU. Also the one stat (scoring defense) that has been touted in NU's favor is actually slightly off (7.0 ppg for NU vs 7.6 for UM). The number for UM includes a pick six. The UM defense has actually given up less ppg than NU defense (6.2 ppg).
Regarding strength of schedule, here are some commonly used metrics:
Sagarin -- UM 70.76 (31) ; NU 67.76 (56)
FEI -- UM .226 (41) ; NU .278 (52)
S&P+ -- UM -0.3 (81) ; NU 0.2 (55)
So 2/3 metrics give Michigan the edge SOS wise. The one that doesn't, S&P has Michigan ranked at #3 overall in total S&P and NU at #29 overall, so I'm not sure you want to trust that one
I'll be at the game this weekend and I wouldn't be surprised if NU won the game (especially after the BS UM has pulled the last few years), but I do feel that UM defense has the upper hand, especially at home.
I don't trust any of them... advanced stats and football have never seemed like a particularly happy marriage, so to speak.
The beauty of all this is that the teams get to figure it out on the field.
Addressing your second point first (SOS hypothetical). I'm not sure where wins/losses are coming into play here. I included SOS figures only because of the original statement made:
I was showing that NU has not played the tougher schedule. Whether the teams won or lost those games is irrelevant for defensive statistics.
Addressing your first point, you're right in that red zone turnovers by the offense can give a misleading representation of the points against a defense. I still think it is more reasonable to count points against a defense who is actually on the field (all of NU's) vs points scored when a defense has no chance to stop it, but I can see the argument.
It's interesting to me that in the first half of BYU UM ran lots of new plays vs BYU that really challenged their defense but once they got a big lead they went into very conservative mode.
I don't feel UM's defense is any better necessarily than NU's. Northwestern has been very impressive in their dominating wins vs Stanford, a great team, and Minnesota. I don't think this game is an easy assured win for UM, unlike apparently from this thread a few Northwestern fans that think that UM is a gimme!
Michigan fans should have plenty of reason to be optimistic and confident. Team is playing solidly of late, running game and defense look impressive, game is at home. Hard to argue too much that they should be favored in a game of two teams with similar styles and philosophies when they are at home with momentum.
As a NU fan however, gotta like this matchup. We've beaten very solid teams with our offense essentially playing not to lose, and we should be more competent week by week on that side of the ball. Michigan fits the profile of a team that I like our chances against, as we played well against Harbaugh disciple David Shaw. I also think the Harbaugh factor is being played up a lil too much. Sure he's a great coach, but in college it helps to have some recruiting classes, as he has always had elite talent on his teams.
And if we lose, we can always go back to our comfortable West division with our title game chances very much intact. Plus that Eastern time zone would make for a convenient scape goat.
Not a bad position to be in when you consider that my main goals as a fan this year were player development and bowl eligibility.
As a NU fan however, gotta like this matchup. We've beaten very solid teams with our offense essentially playing not to lose, and we should be more competent week by week on that side of the ball. Michigan fits the profile of a team that I like our chances against, as we played well against Harbaugh disciple David Shaw. I also think the Harbaugh factor is being played up a lil too much. Sure he's a great coach, but in college it helps to have some recruiting classes, as he has always had elite talent on his teams.
And if we lose, we can always go back to our comfortable West division with our title game chances very much intact. Plus that Eastern time zone would make for a convenient scape goat.
Not a bad position to be in when you consider that my main goals as a fan this year were player development and bowl eligibility.
All points count. You can give me the 1985 Bears or the 1976 Steelers defense, but if the offense gives up points or hands the other team the ball in the red zone it doesn't matter. Football is a team game. It's not offense or defense or special teams. It's the combination of the three. That combination gave up more points so your points against is higher. That's what scoring defense is. Not scoring while your defense is on the field.
And if one of Oregon States wins was against somebody other than Weber State I may be more impressed with Michigan beating them.
We have two defensive TDs. A 71 yd pass interception vs EIU and the fumble return by Walker against Minny and we also have potentially a FG or so that can be attributed to TO. Do you take that off points scored? Now we have only given up 21 net pts.
I wish we had a loss we could be proud of. Maybe if we had a close loss against Stanford or Duke rather than a solid victory, Michigan fans would be more impressed.
Just like Minnesota fans here were of TCU.
Regardless, between our game and Cal-Utah, we're all going to learn a lot about Michigan this weekend. I'd like to see Utah win because Dykes is a jackwagon, but all the talk this week reminds me greatly of the talk last week. The difference is that Michigan's defense, Ojemudia aside, is healthier than Minny's was without Boddy-Calhoun and other members of their secondary, Rudock is somewhat better than Leidner, and this one's on the road. But if Thorson continues to improve the way many of us think he will and protects the ball above all, we've got a good shot to hold serve.
How many top 25 teams have those 3 teams beaten? Isn't GT on a 3 game losing streak?
How many teams have beaten ANY top 25 teams?
[Northwestern raises hand.]
Right now the current top 25 has 16 undefeated teams and nine one-loss teams. Those losses came to:
Current #14 Ole Miss, current #11 Florida, current #6 Clemson, current #13 Northwestern, current #16 Stanford, current #5 Utah, current #8 Alabama, unranked Arizona State, and BYU.
So yeah, Michigan beat a team that beat the #25 ranked Boise St. team. Northwestern beat a team that beat #17 USC. Great for everyone.
How far down to we have to go down this rabbit hole? Do we start looking at Northwestern beating Duke beating Georgia Tech who lost to Notre Dame who needed a miracle to beat Virginia?
I'm looking forward to Saturday. I think NU can win. You think Michigan can win. We're both right in thinking what we think, but only one team will prevail. I hope it's NU. Good luck!
Go Cats.
We are rolling with the Bo Jr. moniker while watching your RB on Saturday. He that good!
Standard quote from Fitz: "Stats are for losers."
What tips the scales in Meat-Chicken's favor is in defensive personnel upside, especially in the Meat-Chicken secondary. NU has the quality players on D, without a doubt. But Mich has the coaches with a noted NFL pedigree who know what a press cover technique is all about, and an HC who will emphasize his secondary's ability to shut-down NU's middling passing attack and force the Wildcat O towards becoming one dimensional by over-dependence on the rushing attack w/ the 3-headed RB. Keys to it all are:
1. Can the 'Cat receivers get separation from Meat-Chicken's press cover DBs (that's a hellova challenge)?
2. If the NU receivers do get consistency in gaining separation, can Thorson get the pill to them on target and in stride often enough to make a difference to soften the hard-core press cover? (Big TBD)
3. Can the 'Cats' OL punch holes in the Meat-Chicken's defensive front 7 - especially if/when the NU attack starts to over-depend on their ground game if their passing attack gets neutralized? (another TBD)
That is an ENORMOUS challenge for the 'Cats as a visitor playing a competitively ascending team at home in front of a rabid fan base screaming their lungs out.
What tips the scales in Meat-Chicken's favor is in defensive personnel upside, especially in the Meat-Chicken secondary. NU has the quality players on D, without a doubt. But Mich has the coaches with a noted NFL pedigree who know what a press cover technique is all about, and an HC who will emphasize his secondary's ability to shut-down NU's middling passing attack and force the Wildcat O towards becoming one dimensional by over-dependence on the rushing attack w/ the 3-headed RB. Keys to it all are:
1. Can the 'Cat receivers get separation from Meat-Chicken's press cover DBs (that's a hellova challenge)?
2. If the NU receivers do get consistency in gaining separation, can Thorson get the pill to them on target and in stride often enough to make a difference to soften the hard-core press cover? (Big TBD)
3. Can the 'Cats' OL punch holes in the Meat-Chicken's defensive front 7 - especially if/when the NU attack starts to over-depend on their ground game if their passing attack gets neutralized? (another TBD)
That is an ENORMOUS challenge for the 'Cats as a visitor playing a competitively ascending team at home in front of a rabid fan base screaming their lungs out.
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