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Main Challenge vs. Western Michigan

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corbi296

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Western Michigan is a very good MAC team that is capable of upsetting NU. As detailed in the linked article, the main challenge will be to stop WMU's combo of Terrell to Davis. These guys are similar to the QB/WR combo from Ball State that gave us problems last year but much better. I saw Davis play in HS with QB Reilly O"Toole and Davis was very good. Not a burner but great size, good hands and good route runner. I think Matt Harris will end up shadowing him wherever Davis goes.

http://www.battlecreekenquirer.com/...kley-take-notice-wmus-terrell-davis/88389776/
 
corbi296 said:
Western Michigan is a very good MAC team that is capable of upsetting NU. As detailed in the linked article, the main challenge will be to stop WMU's combo of Terrell to Davis. These guys are similar to the QB/WR combo from Ball State that gave us problems last year but much better. I saw Davis play in HS with QB Reilly O"Toole and Davis was very good. Not a burner but great size, good hands and good route runner. I think Matt Harris will end up shadowing him wherever Davis goes.

http://www.battlecreekenquirer.com/...kley-take-notice-wmus-terrell-davis/88389776/
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WMU is very good. It would not be a "upset" if they beat NU although many NU fans would be upset!
 
Fitzphile said:
WMU is very good. It would not be a "upset" if they beat NU although many NU fans would be upset!
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I don't agree with you. It would be an upset if they beat us at home coming off of our 10 win season with as many starters as we have back. If NU comes to play, we will win this and cover the spread. If NU is complacent, things will get dicey.
 
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Fitzphile said:
WMU is very good. It would not be a "upset" if they beat NU although many NU fans would be upset!
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Yes, it would be an upset for a MAC team that went 8-5 last season to beat a B1G team that went 10-3.

We should (theoretically) have much better depth and be able to handle WMU, especially given what they lost outside of Terrell and Davis, but you never know. That's why they play the games.
 
corbi296 said:
I don't agree with you. It would be an upset if they beat us at home coming off of our 10 win season with as many starters as we have back. If NU comes to play, we will win this and cover the spread. If NU is complacent, things will get dicey.
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Biggest concern: WMU has a very good, experienced QB and a WR who will play on Sundays. NU lost its pass rush in Lowry and Gibson and a starting CB. Lots of passing game defense questions in game 1 for the Cats. After sitting through the Ball State passing debacle last season I hope for the best but.....
 
Fitzphile said:
Biggest concern: WMU has a very good, experienced QB and a WR who will play on Sundays. NU lost its pass rush in Lowry and Gibson and a starting CB. Lots of passing game defense questions in game 1 for the Cats. After sitting through the Ball State passing debacle last season I hope for the best but.....
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That's the spirit!
 
corbi296 said:
Western Michigan is a very good MAC team that is capable of upsetting NU. As detailed in the linked article, the main challenge will be to stop WMU's combo of Terrell to Davis. These guys are similar to the QB/WR combo from Ball State that gave us problems last year but much better. I saw Davis play in HS with QB Reilly O"Toole and Davis was very good. Not a burner but great size, good hands and good route runner. I think Matt Harris will end up shadowing him wherever Davis goes.

http://www.battlecreekenquirer.com/...kley-take-notice-wmus-terrell-davis/88389776/
Click to expand...

It would be nice to have Harris shadow him, but we all know Hank has been very reluctant to do that in the past. I'm sure there's a reason for it. But with the talent Davis has, that would be quite a tough matchup for Hartage or Mayo to walk into in game 1.
 
ricko654321 said:
It would be nice to have Harris shadow him, but we all know Hank has been very reluctant to do that in the past. I'm sure there's a reason for it. But with the talent Davis has, that would be quite a tough matchup for Hartage or Mayo to walk into in game 1.
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The reason is that Hank's scheme works better with a balanced defensive backfield. That's kind of the entire point behind a cover-4 scheme. Hank has, however, shadowed on occasion when one WR is head-and-shoulders above the others.

We didn't see it against Ball State last year, presumably because Williams had had a couple of nice-but-nothing-overwhelming games before NU (8 catches for 99 yards against VMI, 2 for 58 against Texas AM, and 5 for 57 with a TD against Eastern Michigan; he'd only been the leading receiver in the VMI game and was significantly out-paced by his teammate Mabon's 10 catches for 82 yards against EMU). You didn't see a whole lot of reason to shadow Williams before the NU game, then he had himself a day.

Fast forward to 2016 and Davis is CLEARLY WMU's best receiver, compounded by Braverman's early departure for the NFL. The next-highest returning receiver had 18 catches compared to 90 for Davis and 108 for Braverman (which I realize is as many as our leading receiver Carr, but that's not the point). I think that makes it much more likely we see Harris shadow Davis than we might otherwise expect.
 
WMU may have the best offense we face this year. Zach Terrell is in his third year as the starting QB (2nd and 3rd team All-MAC his first two years), Corey Davis is the highest-rated NFL WR prospect we'll see, and the two RBs are the past two MAC Freshmen of the Year. Because of WMU's offense talent and explosiveness, this is a game that we'll definitely miss Keith Watkins.

I think our defense will do a good job but we'll need more out of our offense. Unlike many of our games last year and some of the teams we play this year, I don't think we can expect to win a low-scoring defensive battle. WMU will score some points and put pressure on our offense to do the same.
 
gocatsgo2003 said:
The reason is that Hank's scheme works better with a balanced defensive backfield. That's kind of the entire point behind a cover-4 scheme. Hank has, however, shadowed on occasion when one WR is head-and-shoulders above the others.

We didn't see it against Ball State last year, presumably because Williams had had a couple of nice-but-nothing-overwhelming games before NU (8 catches for 99 yards against VMI, 2 for 58 against Texas AM, and 5 for 57 with a TD against Eastern Michigan; he'd only been the leading receiver in the VMI game and was significantly out-paced by his teammate Mabon's 10 catches for 82 yards against EMU). You didn't see a whole lot of reason to shadow Williams before the NU game, then he had himself a day.

Fast forward to 2016 and Davis is CLEARLY WMU's best receiver, compounded by Braverman's early departure for the NFL. The next-highest returning receiver had 18 catches compared to 90 for Davis and 108 for Braverman (which I realize is as many as our leading receiver Carr, but that's not the point). I think that makes it much more likely we see Harris shadow Davis than we might otherwise expect.
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Yeah, that all makes sense, and I get that in a cover 4 scheme we aren't usually playing strict man to man, notwithstanding whoever lines up across from whom. Would add to your point on WR balance- last year our D backfield was pretty well balanced at CB, as both NVH and Harris were excellent in coverage and not significantly different in terms of body type. We all hope that Hartage (or whoever else) proves to be just as able over time, and I would think it's very unlikely we would have Harris chase the #1 wideout all year, but for this game it would seem to be worth considering.

PS your aside on our leading returning receiver is .... revealing haha.
 
ricko654321 said:
Yeah, that all makes sense, and I get that in a cover 4 scheme we aren't usually playing strict man to man, notwithstanding whoever lines up across from whom. Would add to your point on WR balance- last year our D backfield was pretty well balanced at CB, as both NVH and Harris were excellent in coverage and not significantly different in terms of body type. We all hope that Hartage (or whoever else) proves to be just as able over time, and I would think it's very unlikely we would have Harris chase the #1 wideout all year, but for this game it would seem to be worth considering.

PS your aside on our leading returning receiver is .... revealing haha.
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You're spot on that the decision should come down to whether Hank/Brown are fully confident in Hartage, who seems to be the odds-on favorite to start opposite Harris. If they think he will be OK in coverage (either on his own or by rolling him safety help, presumably from Igwebuike though Queiro is also OK in coverage), then you don't have to trail with Harris and unbalance your defense.
 
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gocatsgo2003 said:
You're spot on that the decision should come down to whether Hank/Brown are fully confident in Hartage, who seems to be the odds-on favorite to start opposite Harris. If they think he will be OK in coverage (either on his own or by rolling him safety help, presumably from Igwebuike though Queiro is also OK in coverage), then you don't have to trail with Harris and unbalance your defense.
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Yeah, was also thinking that having two experienced safeties back there should help (Godwin more so bc he has stayed healthy, but Kyle has still seen a decent amount of time). I'm reminded of the old days when we used to have blown coverages / miscommunications / botched passing off of WRs with all too much regularity. Not sure if it coincided directly with when Hank came in as DC and the combo of him + Brown is better at teaching and simplifying secondary schemes, or just was when we've started to find more talented and smarter DBs, but it happens much less now. That one memorable Fitz blowup against Nebraska about a "half field safety" as an exception haha.

Either way one would think it should help if Hartage can focus on taking care of his role, and a) trust in where the other guys will be, and b) have experience out there that will help direct traffic and give guidance when needed. If this wideout is legit a 1st round pick, then we may want to roll safety help at times even if Harris is matched up on him...

And thanks for the good insights and discussion.
 
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Catdude said:
WMU may have the best offense we face this year. Zach Terrell is in his third year as the starting QB (2nd and 3rd team All-MAC his first two years), Corey Davis is the highest-rated NFL WR prospect we'll see, and the two RBs are the past two MAC Freshmen of the Year. Because of WMU's offense talent and explosiveness, this is a game that we'll definitely miss Keith Watkins.

I think our defense will do a good job but we'll need more out of our offense. Unlike many of our games last year and some of the teams we play this year, I don't think we can expect to win a low-scoring defensive battle. WMU will score some points and put pressure on our offense to do the same.
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I know that there is a joke in there but I can't find it. Have you ever heard of Ohio St., Mich. St. or Nebraska, not to mention Io-a, Wisconsin and Minnesota?
 
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I think WMU will win the MAC. Having said that, if we expect to do anything this year we better prevail in this game. They are at best the 6th strongest team we play. We should be able to move the ball with JJTBC and an improved Clayton.

I expect will may struggle with the stud WR, but we shouldn't get beat because of one stud. I think the front 7 can bottle us the running game and hopefully keep the QB from making gains on busted plays.

Won't be easy, but see this as a huge game to set the tone.
 
willycat said:
I know that there is a joke in there but I can't find it. Have you ever heard of Ohio St., Mich. St. or Nebraska, not to mention Io-a, Wisconsin and Minnesota?
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reminds me of that one poindexter who kept telling us how good EIU was last year
 
willycat said:
I know that there is a joke in there but I can't find it. Have you ever heard of Ohio St., Mich. St. or Nebraska, not to mention Io-a, Wisconsin and Minnesota?
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I'm saying possibly the best offense, not the best team. Ohio St has Barrett at QB but lost a lot of guys on offense and the other teams you mentioned are not projected to have high-powered offenses. It will not surprise me at all if WMU scores more on us than most of our Big 10 opponents do.
 
willycat said:
I know that there is a joke in there but I can't find it. Have you ever heard of Ohio St., Mich. St. or Nebraska, not to mention Io-a, Wisconsin and Minnesota?
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He's not wrong. Davis could very well be the best NFL wideout prospect we face in 2016.
 
gocatsgo2003 said:
He's not wrong. Davis could very well be the best NFL wideout prospect we face in 2016.
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I doubt it. I know there is talk of him going in the first round but I doubt it. I think he is somewhat overrated at this point. I'd be surprised if we don't play against a better WR in the Big Ten games.
 
corbi296 said:
I doubt it. I know there is talk of him going in the first round but I doubt it. I think he is somewhat overrated at this point. I'd be surprised if we don't play against a better WR in the Big Ten games.
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I thought the same thing, but there really aren't any other WRs who scare me on the schedule.

Duke, no. Nebraska, maybe Westerkamp but he doesn't really have NFL size/speed. Iowa, no. MSU, maybe Shelton? Indiana, maybe Cobbs or Jones? OSU, has talent but the best is going. Wisconsin, no. Purdue, no. Minnesota, no. Illinois, no.

There's at least an argument that Davis is the best NFL prospect we will face at wideout, and I bet the drop-off aftrer WMU's #1 is bigger than any other opponents'.
 
gocatsgo2003 said:
I thought the same thing, but there really aren't any other WRs who scare me on the schedule.

Duke, no. Nebraska, maybe Westerkamp but he doesn't really have NFL size/speed. Iowa, no. MSU, maybe Shelton? Indiana, maybe Cobbs or Jones? OSU, has talent but the best is going. Wisconsin, no. Purdue, no. Minnesota, no. Illinois, no.

There's at least an argument that Davis is the best NFL prospect we will face at wideout, and I bet the drop-off aftrer WMU's #1 is bigger than any other opponents'.
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Interesting. Not necessarily arguing against best wideout, but in terms of the offense overall. I would preliminarily rate them as 3rd- behind OSU and (hear me out) Iowa. 1 OSU cause of Barrett first, and all the other young talent even after departures. 2 Iowa- they won't lead in terms of yards or points because they play the game at a much slower pace, but with that OL and running game, plus an above average QB in Beathard who takes care of the ball, they should be efficient and effective. I think Beathard with that offense is kind of what Fitz wishes he could have with Thorson and our offense. And for us in particular, I'm recalling with they did to us w off tackle runs in the 2H even when we had Lowry and Gibson to set the edge... concerned about our DE play against them this year.

Then WMU maybe, in competition with MSU (still have talent and strong running game, but minus Cook Burbridge Conklin I think take a step back); Nebraska (Armstrong prob accumulates yards, but inconsistency and turnovers will hurt them); and Indiana (always good scheme and fast pace but I don't think they have as much skill position talent this year). Next runner up Wisconsin, but even if their OL and running game bounces back I think they will be one dimensional, sorta like us last year (hopefully not this year too!!)
 
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Too much worrying about NU defense vs WMU. Is the NU offense going to suck like last year? If it does then probably 0-1 at 3pm on 9/3.
 
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julescat said:
Too much worrying about NU defense vs WMU. Is the NU offense going to suck like last year? If it does then probably 0-1 at 3pm on 9/3.
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The offense must be better this year, starting with game one! WMU's defense is mediocre at best. If we don't score at least four touchdowns it could be a rough season.
 
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I think Westerkamp will play in the NFL. He's not a better pro prospect than Davis but I am pretty sure he'll play on Sunday's.
 
Overly_Invested_Cat said:
I think the game will be a replay of the Ball State, with Davis playing the outstanding receiver.
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VanHoose was the coverage guy on the Ball State receiver, and he struggled. Harris needs to be on Davis if the CB on the other side can't keep up.
 
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Fitzphile said:
Biggest concern: WMU has a very good, experienced QB and a WR who will play on Sundays. NU lost its pass rush in Lowry and Gibson and a starting CB. Lots of passing game defense questions in game 1 for the Cats. After sitting through the Ball State passing debacle last season I hope for the best but.....
Click to expand...

I recall past games where NU struggled against teams that had a good QB and one good receiver.
 
Fitzphile said:
Biggest concern: WMU has a very good, experienced QB and a WR who will play on Sundays. NU lost its pass rush in Lowry and Gibson and a starting CB. Lots of passing game defense questions in game 1 for the Cats. After sitting through the Ball State passing debacle last season I hope for the best but.....
Click to expand...
While that game was frustrating, it's worth noting that Ball St was 14-35 for 178 yards overall, averaging 5 yards per attempt. And of that a 30 yard TD prob should have been overturned on replay. They had 359 total yards and 19 points, not great but not exactly a debacle.
 
Overly_Invested_Cat said:
I think the game will be a replay of the Ball State, with Davis playing the outstanding receiver.
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This WMU team is way better than that Ball St team. WMU is the consensus MAC favorite while Ball St finished last year 3-9. WMU is not Stanford but still a strong opponent in the opener.
 
Catdude said:
This WMU team is way better than that Ball St team. WMU is the consensus MAC favorite while Ball St finished last year 3-9. WMU is not Stanford but still a strong opponent in the opener.
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Agreed. It's worth noting that the Ball State WR that looked like a world beater against us ended up going undrafted. Davis is a much better player who will be taken in the first couple rounds of the draft.
 
Fitzphile said:
The game was in doubt down to the very end. BSU went 3-9 last season and lost to WMU 54-7. The BSU game was the definition of debacle in my book.
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Perhaps the Ball State game will be the coffee the team needs to face a better MAC team.
 
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