Moritz Wagner

[NURoseBowl]

I think you guys are making the mistake of substituting offensive numbers for value to a team. Look at something like BPM instead, it is far from perfect but at least it considers both sides of the ball. Garnett was a gangly HS grad (yes Lauri isn't much older), and his value in his early years was on the defensive side of the floor. He gradually developed his offensive game over a number of years. If Lauri can develop his defensive abilities in the same way that KG developed his offense, then yes he will be a star. I don't see it happening though. But I doubt I will convince you, so fair enough.

Fans of bad teams often have a way of rationalizing how close they are to being a contender (reference- the Bears for many many years, though there I actually think we finally may be getting close!).

I grew up in Chicago, Ricko . . . what else could I do?

 

[ricko654321]

My recollection of Garnett was that he played like a rookie his first year, albeit a 19 year old rookie, and made the leap year two into a solid NBA player with a 7-9 ppg jump.

The point of my post was more in the "we don't know" camp than it's now an absolute he'll be a star, or a bench player. But I'd point a big red arrow to the fact that he did what he did his first year at the age of 19-20. Amongst an oftentimes clueless group of guys (and coach) on the floor. Truly clueless.

If I had to bet money, I'd bet he's going to be a solid NBA player -- a starter -- for 10+ years.

Rick, I'd disagree with you on two points. The first is shooting opportunity. This Bulls team killed Lauri. Repeatedly clueless on offense. As they bring in NBA players and get rid of the chaff his offensive efficiency will go up, if not his scoring. On defense, I echo'd what you write about strength and quickness nine months ago and I was wrong. He's got enough of both, will get stronger, and will get better defensively.

Again, he's 20 on a really shitty team.

I totally agree that we don't know, and I agree he will likely be a solid NBA starter. I said something to the effect of "starter" and "solid role player" but "not a star". So Medill I think we are in agreement.

And Corbi yes I have watched the Bulls periodically this year. I certainly have not nearly watched every game, I'm not that much of a masochist (unless NU sports are involved). But I've watched enough to form opinions. Also, the various advanced defensive stats help speak for themselves in terms of the team's defense (and his individual defense) when he's on the floor. Certainly the Bulls being bad this year has hurt everyone, but it's possible to evaluate players independently of that.

 

[corbi296]

I totally agree that we don't know, and I agree he will likely be a solid NBA starter. I said something to the effect of "starter" and "solid role player" but "not a star". So Medill I think we are in agreement.

And Corbi yes I have watched the Bulls periodically this year. I certainly have not nearly watched every game, I'm not that much of a masochist (unless NU sports are involved). But I've watched enough to form opinions. Also, the various advanced defensive stats help speak for themselves in terms of the team's defense (and his individual defense) when he's on the floor. Certainly the Bulls being bad this year has hurt everyone, but it's possible to evaluate players independently of that.

What do you think of Porzingas? I think Lauri will be just as good a player.

 

[ricko654321]

What do you think of Porzingas? I think Lauri will be just as good a player.

I think Porzingis is a fair amount more athletic, and a better defender. The 3 extra inches don't hurt as well.

If Lauri turns out to have as much upside as Kristaps in 2-3 years then I will certainly have been wrong in this conversation.