New CFP Format...

[Sheffielder]

Just chatting for the sake of chatting here...

On one hand, I was excited to see the brackets for the playoff - interesting matchups and plenty of football to carry us through December.

On the other hand, I couldn't have been less interested in the bowl matchups. Maybe this season just took it's toll on me as a Northwestern fan, but I consider myself a HUGE college football fan, and the kind of person who used to be glued to the TV on Sunday watching bowl bids get announced. I didn't actually bother to look at the full slate until this morning on my way to work.

This worries me for the future of the sport, because for someone like me to lose interest in the field like that in Season #1 where the expanded playoff is happening, it's probably not a good sign. Add to that the fact that I've really enjoyed planning (and justifying) bowl trips around New Year's plans, and that's no longer a very practical timeline since the spotlight is now on the playoff games for Jan 1. I'm not looking to go fly in somewhere on Dec. 27 and out on the 29th or 30th. And I typically don't need or want to stretch a trip to Nashville or Tampa to four days just to hit New Year's. I think the new format succeeds in hoisting the Top 12 teams higher, but it's definitely coming at the expense of depth.

 

[NJCat]

I'd delighted that we will have 11 high quality bowl games to watch, where no one is sitting out. The rest of the bowls? Meh. I don't really pay attention to the vast majority except for the one NU is in. This will be a great off-season for the neutral CFB fan to watch post-season games.

 

[Figrating]

In their relentless efforts to sustain unfair competition, the playoff designers chose to use 12 teams and hand out byes for the first round to four teams. Maybe one of these 4 teams was going to win it all anyway, but now they have a huge advantage. A zero on the judgement meter. These people should be fed to sharks on TV.

OTOH, all the top teams will face each other, the competition will be fierce and each game should be the big fun to watch.

 

[FeralFelidae]

In their relentless efforts to sustain unfair competition, the playoff designers chose to use 12 teams and hand out byes for the first round to the top four teams. Maybe one of the top 4 teams was going to win it all anyway, but now they have a huge advantage. A zero on the judgement meter. These people should be fed to sharks on TV.

OTOH, all the top teams will face each other, the competition will be fierce and each game should be the big fun to watch.

Under current rules, Notre Dame can't be chosen as one of the top 4 teams because they aren't members of a conference. So an undefeated Notre Dame would hypothetically have to settle for the #5 spot.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

I hadn't thought about the "make sure players don't skip the bowl games by making it a playoff" angle.
I wonder if some guys on the playoff teams will skip the games anyhow.

"I might get hurt" has always been the motivation.

I agree with the original poster that the playoff hurts the 30 or so other bowls pretty significantly.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Under current rules, Notre Dame can't be chosen as one of the top 4 teams because they aren't members of a conference. So an undefeated Notre Dame would hypothetically have to settle for the #5 spot.

Thats an odd rule isn't it.
From the perspective of fairness.
Until you consider that a conference team shares the "prize money" with other teams in the conference, while an independent does not.
So its pretty easy to see how the votes lined up - not for fairness, but for self-interest.

Does the Big Ten still split the proceeds equally across all member schools?

 

[FeralFelidae]

Thats an odd rule isn't it.
From the perspective of fairness.
Until you consider that a conference team shares the "prize money" with other teams in the conference, while an independent does not.
So its pretty easy to see how the votes lined up - not for fairness, but for self-interest.

Does the Big Ten still split the proceeds equally across all member schools?

Since Notre Dame doesn't play in a conference championship game, maybe they view that as Notre Dame's bye. The teams given those top 4 spots all had to play that extra game.

 

[EagerFan]

In their relentless efforts to sustain unfair competition, the playoff designers chose to use 12 teams and hand out byes for the first round to the top four teams. Maybe one of the top 4 teams was going to win it all anyway, but now they have a huge advantage. A zero on the judgement meter. These people should be fed to sharks on TV.

OTOH, all the top teams will face each other, the competition will be fierce and each game should be the big fun to watch.

But it doesn't look like they handed out byes to the top four teams. Boise St and Arizona St both got byes although they're #8 and #12 respectively. Or did I read the bracket incorrectly?

 

[NJCat]

But it doesn't look like they handed out byes to the top four teams. Boise St and Arizona St both got byes although they're #8 and #12 respectively. Or did I read the bracket incorrectly?

The four highest ranked conference winners got byes. Clemson (#16) was ranked below BSU (9) and ASU (12).

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

They're just winging it.
Its too many teams no matter how you slice it.
After that its a series of silly rules.

Nobody thinks Boise State and Arizona State are among the 4 best teams. Lets start there.

 

[Sheffielder]

In their relentless efforts to sustain unfair competition, the playoff designers chose to use 12 teams and hand out byes for the first round to the top four teams. Maybe one of the top 4 teams was going to win it all anyway, but now they have a huge advantage. A zero on the judgement meter. These people should be fed to sharks on TV.

OTOH, all the top teams will face each other, the competition will be fierce and each game should be the big fun to watch.

I think the driving factor here (for the first-round byes), whether they've said it out loud or not, was the need to ensure there was still importance placed on the conference championship games. Without this element, which we agree yields a huge advantage, the SEC and Big Ten championship teams would have benched their starters on Saturday.

 

[Sheffielder]

I hadn't thought about the "make sure players don't skip the bowl games by making it a playoff" angle.
I wonder if some guys on the playoff teams will skip the games anyhow.

"I might get hurt" has always been the motivation.

I agree with the original poster that the playoff hurts the 30 or so other bowls pretty significantly.

I think this is where NIL collectives leverage their checkbooks...

 

[Sheffielder]

Thats an odd rule isn't it.
From the perspective of fairness.
Until you consider that a conference team shares the "prize money" with other teams in the conference, while an independent does not.
So its pretty easy to see how the votes lined up - not for fairness, but for self-interest.

Does the Big Ten still split the proceeds equally across all member schools?

Not an odd rule at all when you consider who was in the room voting on it - everyone but ND is the member of a conference. We are seeing firsthand out this can benefit G5 schools like Boise State. Notre Dame had no way to win this one based on their own stated priorities, and everyone else was fine with that.

 

[Sheffielder]

They're just winging it.
Its too many teams no matter how you slice it.
After that its a series of silly rules.

Nobody thinks Boise State and Arizona State are among the 4 best teams. Lets start there.

...but it was never about "the four best teams." Those byes were always intended to be earmarked for "the four highest-ranked conference champions."

* This benefited the SEC and Big Ten because in any given year, they will almost certainly occupy two of those four spots.
* It benefits the Big 12 and ACC in "most" years.
* It benefits G5 conferences in "some" years - which is a hell of a lot more than any format that came before this one.
* It ensures the literal survival of the conference championship game for every conference, which is more money in the conference's pocket and live content for the networks.

I agree 12 is too many, but 1) it's still better than how pro sports include as many teams as possible, and 2) by having 12, the conversation about Alabama vs. SMU is most irrelevant. Different story altogether last year with Florida State, an undefeated team, being excluded at #5.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

...but it was never about "the four best teams." Those byes were always intended to be earmarked for "the four highest-ranked conference champions."

* This benefited the SEC and Big Ten because in any given year, they will almost certainly occupy two of those four spots.
* It benefits the Big 12 and ACC in "most" years.
* It benefits G5 conferences in "some" years - which is a hell of a lot more than any format that came before this one.
* It ensures the literal survival of the conference championship game for every conference, which is more money in the conference's pocket and live content for the networks.

I agree 12 is too many, but 1) it's still better than how pro sports include as many teams as possible, and 2) by having 12, the conversation about Alabama vs. SMU is most irrelevant. Different story altogether last year with Florida State, an undefeated team, being excluded at #5.

Its a tough call for me.
If it is really about declaring a champion, you'd see rules that reflected that.
Its about making as much money as possible.
I might bet my life that the lesser bowl games will be wrapped up into a playoff next year - it depends entirely on the amount of revenue that is generated this year vs last year. If total revenue declines due to the lesser bowl games, there will be more teams in the playoff.

But I'm gonna go with - they expand the CFP to 16 teams, choosing 14 based on some ratings system and they use the minor bowls to take 16 "also-rans" and have them play a series of games to generate the last 2 finalists. That would be 29 bowl games -starting the week after the conference championships.

Something like that. Maybe start the season a couple weeks earlier.

 

[Sheffielder]

Its a tough call for me.
If it is really about declaring a champion, you'd see rules that reflected that.
Its about making as much money as possible.
I might bet my life that the lesser bowl games will be wrapped up into a playoff next year - it depends entirely on the amount of revenue that is generated this year vs last year. If total revenue declines due to the lesser bowl games, there will be more teams in the playoff.

But I'm gonna go with - they expand the CFP to 16 teams, choosing 14 based on some ratings system and they use the minor bowls to take 16 "also-rans" and have them play a series of games to generate the last 2 finalists. That would be 29 bowl games -starting the week after the conference championships.

Something like that. Maybe start the season a couple weeks earlier.

Well, I don't think anyone would disagree this is about the money.

Here's the thing that's interesting to me...

Say you're a Clemson superfan. You start with a trip to Austin @ Texas. Let's say the Tigers win...

11 days later you're in Atlanta playing Arizona State in the Peach Bowl, paying inflated prices for things since you booked less than 14 days out. Let's say you win again...

8 or 9 days later, you're either in Dallas or Miami (honestly, I lost track but either destination - inflated prices!) And if you actually make it to the finals...

Welcome back to Atlanta, 10 or 11 days later (again, booking less than two weeks out). You're playing there again. It's January 20 and you've already used up all your vacation days for the year, and you took a second mortgage on your house to be a "true fan."

...or, do fans say "no thanks" and these stadiums are half empty? Is the TV money actually enough to offset the fact that cities no longer find these games attractive enough to offer free security and other concessions?

 

[CMcCat]

They should play all the winners bracket games at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis and all the losers bracket games at Aon Spoiled Field in Evanston.

 

[kawacko]

I still think 12 was stupid. 8 or 16. I guess it just my Math background.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

I still think 12 was stupid. 8 or 16. I guess it just my Math background.

8 or 16 is math.
12 might be meth.

 

[olshin]

Feels like 12 was a compromise to keep the conference championship games, the 12-game schedule, and allow teams that won the conference championships away from a possible 17-game season.

ND not getting a bye in some ways seems unfair, but completely reflective of the fact that every other potential Top 4 seed is playing a 13th game, where they get a bye that week. So while my first thought was this is bogus .... my second thought was, that makes complete sense. Their protection if they really are that good is that they 1) get a home game against a low seed and 2) play a QF game against NOT one of the Power 2 champs. A 5 or 6 seed really isn't awful.

I actually dont think they're going to 16, although I could see 14 for sure. I think they want the SEC/B1G champs getting a bye. They, of course, meaning the SEC/B1G ... which add legitimacy to the playoff in the first place.

 

[FeralFelidae]

I still think 12 was stupid. 8 or 16. I guess it just my Math background.

Don't sleep on 12. It's divisible by 2, 3, and 4, making it easy to work with in everyday life, which is why shillings were divided into 12 pence.

But of course it makes for an awkward playoff bracket.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Feels like 12 was a compromise to keep the conference championship games, the 12-game schedule, and allow teams that won the conference championships away from a possible 17-game season.

ND not getting a bye in some ways seems unfair, but completely reflective of the fact that every other potential Top 4 seed is playing a 13th game, where they get a bye that week. So while my first thought was this is bogus .... my second thought was, that makes complete sense. Their protection if they really are that good is that they 1) get a home game against a low seed and 2) play a QF game against NOT one of the Power 2 champs. A 5 or 6 seed really isn't awful.

I actually dont think they're going to 16, although I could see 14 for sure. I think they want the SEC/B1G champs getting a bye. They, of course, meaning the SEC/B1G ... which add legitimacy to the playoff in the first place.

Its the same problem that the NCAA tournament faces.

Do you want to name a national champ based on the entire season or which team is playing best at the end of the season.
I strongly prefer the former.

But the conferences know that revenue is directly tied to fan interest. Every move that has been made and will be made is designed to keep fan interest as high as possible for as long as possible to maximize revenue.

Wouldn't shock me if the entire season becomes a playoff, with multiple chances to get out of the losers bracket, based on God knows what... maybe the team that sells the most tickets gets to go back in the winners bracket each week. Maybe EA Sports gets to run some video games to determine which team deserves a 4th chance. Or maybe fans just vote to determine who gets that coveted 5th chance. More fans, more $$$$.

 

[Sheffielder]

I will say...as the guy who started this thread and shared doomsday sentiments...I actually love that this system has put Boise State right in the thick of things and they didn't need to campaign all that much to get there - they were able to do their talking on the field and are now sitting pretty with a first-round bye. Of all sports on earth, it's funny how much college football has historically relied on talking heads and assumptions about who would beat whom, given how many times those "experts" have been dead wrong.

 

[olshin]

Don't sleep on 12. It's divisible by 2, 3, and 4, making it easy to work with in everyday life, which is why shillings were divided into 12 pence.

But of course it makes for an awkward playoff bracket.

I automatically LIKE any post that uses the "Don't sleep on" construction.

But I do need a lot of sleep.

 

[docrugby1]

Under current rules, Notre Dame can't be chosen as one of the top 4 teams because they aren't members of a conference. So an undefeated Notre Dame would hypothetically have to settle for the #5 spot.

Look at ND's SOS -#5 ?

 

[AdamOnFirst]

Most of the people I know who are fans of other mid-level CFB teams are still excited about their Mayo Bowl and Sun Bowl type matchups, or at least as excited as ever. We'd be similarly excited about our whatever the **** bowl matchup if we were 6-6.

But obviously yes, the bowls in generally are further devalued by the playoff. All the bowls that used to be the top bowls are now playoff games anyway.

 

[Just Gary]

Since Notre Dame doesn't play in a conference championship game, maybe they view that as Notre Dame's bye. The teams given those top 4 spots all had to play that extra game.

It was the deal Notre Dame made. They cannot get a first round bye unless they play in a conference championship. If they had chose to play in the ACC championship game, they could have gotten a bye. So it is real simple. Until they join a conference and play in the conference championship, they will not receive a bye even if undefeated. It seems fair.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Until they join a conference and play in the conference championship, they will not receive a bye even if undefeated. It seems fair.

What it seems like (as opposed to fair) is that the conferences are trying to force Notre Dame to join a conference and share their revenue.
Fair has ZERO to do with it.

 

[dillonpgp]

Feels like 12 was a compromise to keep the conference championship games, the 12-game schedule, and allow teams that won the conference championships away from a possible 17-game season.

ND not getting a bye in some ways seems unfair,

Thank you. Compromise is the key word. No one got exactly what they wanted. Expanding beyond 4 meant (assuming B10 and SEC champions were auto qualifiers post divisions) taking care of the b12, ACC champs, plus a G5 representative (to avoid anti-trust lawsuit) and Notre Dame. The “price” was the latter 4, the compromise was the final number.

I think Notre Dame was thrilled. Almost always will host a game, then more likely than not, play a non-B10SEC champ in the quarters, likely treading the path to the semis most years. Most years (under the current system) being 5 or 6 will be more preferable than being ranked #1

 

[mickbula]

Nd might lose big vs ind. This is really a game I'd love to attend. Sister went to nd. Many friends are ind grads. Really should be lots of fun

 

[AdamOnFirst]

Nd might lose big vs ind. This is really a game I'd love to attend. Sister went to nd. Many friends are ind grads. Really should be lots of fun

I hope so

Get in tix on the secondary market were a grand earlier this week, it’s by far the hot ticket of the first round

 

[mickbula]

I hope so

Get in tix on the secondary market were a grand earlier this week, it’s by far the hot ticket of the first round

This is first time ever both football programs are relevant in national champ contention. Obviously nd many times. Indiana first ever I think

 

[Styre]

I like the current format, but I think you could potentially tweak the system by guaranteeing the 5 conference champs top-8 seeds instead of top-4 seeds to the 4 best. That way the conference championship games yield either a bye or a home game in the first round, keeping them important. So like this year the bracket would be:

12-SMU @ 5-Notre Dame
11-Indiana @ 6-Boise State
10-Tennessee @ 7-Arizona State
9-Ohio State @ 8-Clemson

BYE: 1-Oregon, 2-Georgia, 3-Texas, 4-Penn State

It's not perfect but it makes the bracket more representative of the relative strengths of the teams.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

I like the current format, but I think you could potentially tweak the system by guaranteeing the 5 conference champs top-8 seeds instead of top-4 seeds to the 4 best. That way the conference championship games yield either a bye or a home game in the first round, keeping them important. So like this year the bracket would be:

12-SMU @ 5-Notre Dame
11-Indiana @ 6-Boise State
10-Tennessee @ 7-Arizona State
9-Ohio State @ 8-Clemson

BYE: 1-Oregon, 2-Georgia, 3-Texas, 4-Penn State

It's not perfect but it makes the bracket more representative of the relative strengths of the teams.

It is difficult to claim "We're determining the national champ" when Indiana is on the field... or SMU or Clemson or Arizona State. None of those teams is deserving of an opportunity. So credibility is lost immediately.

What happened was that the major conferences looked at the economics and came up with something that addressed all of their monetary desires. We want to protect the conference championship games. We want guaranteed money for as many of the major conference teams as we can get. They left out the previous requirement "We want each team to have a legitimate argument that they are the best team."

And once you do that, you easily can expand the tournament to include a lot more teams - that is the obvious plan.

 

[Styre]

It is difficult to claim "We're determining the national champ" when Indiana is on the field... or SMU or Clemson or Arizona State. None of those teams is deserving of an opportunity. So credibility is lost immediately.

What happened was that the major conferences looked at the economics and came up with something that addressed all of their monetary desires. We want to protect the conference championship games. We want guaranteed money for as many of the major conference teams as we can get. They left out the previous requirement "We want each team to have a legitimate argument that they are the best team."

And once you do that, you easily can expand the tournament to include a lot more teams - that is the obvious plan.

I mean, every other team sport in the US (including all other levels of college football) awards its championship to the team that wins the tournament, not the team independently assessed to be the best. I don't see why it's inherently problematic for FBS football to do the same.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

It is difficult to claim "We're determining the national champ" when Indiana is on the field... or SMU or Clemson or Arizona State. None of those teams is deserving of an opportunity. So credibility is lost immediately.

What happened was that the major conferences looked at the economics and came up with something that addressed all of their monetary desires. We want to protect the conference championship games. We want guaranteed money for as many of the major conference teams as we can get. They left out the previous requirement "We want each team to have a legitimate argument that they are the best team."

And once you do that, you easily can expand the tournament to include a lot more teams - that is the obvious plan.

Lol, an 11-1 Big Ten team doesn’t deserve to be in the playoff.

I am once again asking that you stick to basketball.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

I mean, every other team sport in the US (including all other levels of college football) awards its championship to the team that wins the tournament, not the team independently assessed to be the best. I don't see why it's inherently problematic for FBS football to do the same.

Because it is inherently problematic in all cases?

I don't care if they have a postseason tournament.

Just don't tell me that the team that finished 3rd in the Big Ten is now the national champ.

Lets say you have a 32 team tournament. 4 really good teams, 28 pretty good teams.
Lets say the 4 really good teams are each in separate brackets with 7 pretty good teams.
Lets say the really good teams have a 75% chance of winning each game against a pretty good team.

So the 4 really good teams have a 75% chance of advancing to Round 2.
They have a 56.25% chance of advancing to Round 3.
They have a 42.1875% chance of advancing to Round 4.
27.2% chance of reaching the final game..
16.7% chance of winning the tournament.
If you had a 4 team playoff, they each have a 25% chance (since we assumed they are all equally deserving)

When you add lesser teams to the playoff you decrease the probability that each top team will win the tournament.

Fwiw, 25 of the last 39 NCAA tournament champs was a #1 seed.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Lol, an 11-1 Big Ten team doesn’t deserve to be in the playoff.

I am once again asking that you stick to basketball.

I can see you are having a difficult time with logic again.
Indiana is not worthy of a chance to win the national title because they have proven they are not as good as 5-6 more deserving teams.
I know you won't figure it out, but I always feel like I should try.

 

[Styre]

Because it is inherently problematic in all cases?

I don't care if they have a postseason tournament.

Just don't tell me that the team that finished 3rd in the Big Ten is now the national champ.

Who were the champions of Major League Baseball in 2023? The Atlanta Braves, who were the class of baseball all season and finished 104-58? Or the 90-win Texas Rangers, who won the World Series?