Next Season’s Guards
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Can't rely on frosh to keep momentum.
Need one strong ass guard to come in. I feel hopeful about the portal for the first time ever.
"Hey dude, come play with these tough mother f'ers". Sounds like a good pitch. Berry and Roper can get better. Barnhizer will, I think for sure, turn into a beast. And he can play 1-4.
One strong ass guard along the lines of the Big 12 or SEC. I can dream.
Need one strong ass guard to come in. I feel hopeful about the portal for the first time ever.
"Hey dude, come play with these tough mother f'ers". Sounds like a good pitch. Berry and Roper can get better. Barnhizer will, I think for sure, turn into a beast. And he can play 1-4.
One strong ass guard along the lines of the Big 12 or SEC. I can dream.
I write this assuming Boo and Chase are back (no idea there) but this kid just entered the portal. If they had him, they'd still be playing:
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Why would they play elsewhere? Top University, into sweet 16? Why would they come to NU?
Except Buie is a Sr with 4 years playing experience at this level. While Clayton may eventually get there, counting on a Frosh to handle those duties...
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Finding a lead guard for next season is such a huge need for this team. Berry, Roper, and Barnhizer don't seem like that guy to me, but maybe I'm underselling their skillset. I just haven't seen it so far. A player with the skill set of a Markquis Nowell at Kansas State (not saying NU will get a player of that quality) allows Berry, Roper, and Barnhizer to do the things that they do well. I think it's a lot to ask Clayton to be that guy as a frosh.
Right now, without Buie, I'm concerned that the car will have some nice features but won't have an engine. Hopefully either a transfer or Berry/Roper can be that engine.
Ivy League does not allow a 5th year, so any senior at Princeton or another Ivy has another year they can use elsewhere. This opportunity exists for this year and next year's Ivy seniors. If they were injured and did not play one year, they would be eligible for two years.
This sounds like the beginning of this season. This player can't do this and that player cannot do that. Maybe the coaches know something that we do not.
They are looking at players in the portal, there is a 6'9" kids from Albany and one from Bucknell. I saw that on one of the portal sites.
Not saying they will be ready day 1., but Clayton and Barkley both played on the Adidas Circuit. Which is competitive. Clayton team won the chip..
They are looking at players in the portal, there is a 6'9" kids from Albany and one from Bucknell. I saw that on one of the portal sites.
Not saying they will be ready day 1., but Clayton and Barkley both played on the Adidas Circuit. Which is competitive. Clayton team won the chip..
Maybe. Maybe everyone on the entire team will make Nicholson style leaps next season and the Cats will be a #1 seed. Maybe Clayton will be an All-American as a frosh despite his middle-of-the-road recruiting rankings. Maybe Berry takes a big step forward with more on-ball duties. Maybe we finally get to see Roper realize his potential. Maybe Nicholson averages a double-double and becomes a first round draft pick. It's all certainly possible.
But counting on all the maybes working out positively is just wishing. Maybe Clayton (who I'm told profiles similarly to Buie) will only give the team what Buie gave the team as a frosh. Maybe what Berry has shown is all that he is. Maybe Nicholson has maxed out his development. Maybe the best version of Barnhizer is as a spark plug off the bench because he can't dominate D1 starters. It's all certainly possible, but I wouldn't count on any of that either. I suspect that the actual outcome will be somewhere in the middle with some of the maybes working out and some of them not.
What made this season so extraordinary is that so many of the maybes worked out better than anyone was hoping (plus some maybes that no one was even really thinking about.) That's EXTRAordinary, not what happens every season. Which is why I suspect Coach Collins is working the portal pretty hard. I'm pretty sure he sees that there are significant question marks without Buie and Audige coming back (but then maybe he knows that they are and is looking for a 4 to get the team to a championship).
How could the coaches know something we don't? You clearly do not appreciate the brain trust that makes up this board.
Assuming Boo moves on, I hope the staff works the team a lot on various press breaks, because they’ll face a ton of press and pressure if they don’t have a stud guard, and the current roster lacks that without Boo.
Roper, Berry, Barney, even Nick can all handle the ball if they don’t have to get fancy, but they don’t have that primary experience or skill (at this level) to be the guy.
Roper, Berry, Barney, even Nick can all handle the ball if they don’t have to get fancy, but they don’t have that primary experience or skill (at this level) to be the guy.
Martinelli will be better. Only question is how much.
Nicholson will be better offensively. Only question is how much. We never passed him the ball and he didn't seem to know how to post up - or was told not to do that. Should change next year.
Hunger looks physical and big, with a jump shot. He will contribute. Only questions are how much and in what roles.
Roper was a disappointment. Only question for him is - will he shoot the ball if Audige and Buie are gone. He's a big wildcard.
Ty Berry will be okay.
Barnhizer, if he starts at the 3, should have a strong season. Not likely to flatline after 1 season.
My suspicion is that Berry, Barnhizer, Roper and Nicholson are on the same page - good chemistry there.
If Buie doesn't come back, we need a point guard. The returning players know that. So nobody is going to be pissed off if Collins brings one in via transfer. The freshmen are new too, so the older guys won't care who plays the point.
Beyond that though, everybody has their eye on a specific position, so hopefully any transfers come in "competing for a role."
Too bad Brumbaugh didn’t stick around…he could have been the answer at the point next year.
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Buie was originally a Frosh Barrnhizer probably has the best skill set of those mentioned as he seems to have the ability to make decisions. A little too me first right now to support others but he has the confidence in himself that they others do not seem to have at this point.
When looking at transfers, I'd look at their original offers and where they are now playing.
Audige came in from William & Mary - a good academic institution.
Guys who didn't have one or two of those types of schools on their recruiting list are probably tosses.
Grad students are a different matter. If they got good grades as undergrads, NU would have a shot (and plenty of appeal).
Audige came in from William & Mary - a good academic institution.
Guys who didn't have one or two of those types of schools on their recruiting list are probably tosses.
Grad students are a different matter. If they got good grades as undergrads, NU would have a shot (and plenty of appeal).
NU does need a grad transfer and maybe one more underclass from the portal.
But this summer they should have their entire coaching staff. Lowery did not come jn until Aug last year. So that is time to build the defense and add a few wrinkles over the summer.
Battle and McIntosh were scorers in college, but were not ball dominate. IMO it's time to move on from Chase and move Brooks into that role. Chase will get you a bucket and is capable of taking over a game, but can shoot you out of a game as well. Coaches should be able to help with next step similar to Boo the last 2 thirds of the season
Brooks is more of a team player, will pass out of a double team cuts to the basket has a better handle and shot selection.
Ty and Julian will have a summer to learn how to play jn motion as well and it should help.
The freshmen. If they pick up the defense and get a few steals and cheap buckets, that help. Should be decent shooters and with the coaching over the summer should e able to help.
Hungar has to pick up the defense. He was not good last year and made mistakes when given chances in the early games. Hopefully, watching gave him a good perspective.
But this summer they should have their entire coaching staff. Lowery did not come jn until Aug last year. So that is time to build the defense and add a few wrinkles over the summer.
Battle and McIntosh were scorers in college, but were not ball dominate. IMO it's time to move on from Chase and move Brooks into that role. Chase will get you a bucket and is capable of taking over a game, but can shoot you out of a game as well. Coaches should be able to help with next step similar to Boo the last 2 thirds of the season
Brooks is more of a team player, will pass out of a double team cuts to the basket has a better handle and shot selection.
Ty and Julian will have a summer to learn how to play jn motion as well and it should help.
The freshmen. If they pick up the defense and get a few steals and cheap buckets, that help. Should be decent shooters and with the coaching over the summer should e able to help.
Hungar has to pick up the defense. He was not good last year and made mistakes when given chances in the early games. Hopefully, watching gave him a good perspective.
I know people get down on Chase for some of his decisions with the ball, but I really think we may miss him the most of our departing players. I think what he did on the defensive end is what really made our team tick. The steals and on-ball defense are obvious, but as important is the way he played off the ball. He was always around, able to keep tabs on his man while also being available to help or at least dissuade opponents from trying to make a move. He was always in the help lane clogging things up, but quick enough to react to ball movement. I think his disruptive presence made our defense work. Since we were a team built on defense, I think we will miss him greatly if he doesn't come back.
I'm not down in Chase. I think he had a great year and gave everything he had. If it was his junior year. No problem with Chase staying.
IMO it's just time to move on. Brooks did his time and he is ready to be the next guy. I think NU would be more of move the ball and players type of team.
IMO it's just time to move on. Brooks did his time and he is ready to be the next guy. I think NU would be more of move the ball and players type of team.
What you're saying is Chase is the next Sanjay Lumpkin, where we'll forever be trying to find the next version of each of them.
Chase is much more than Sanjay was, but if you mean that he has a unique skill set that will be hard to duplicate in the future, then I agree with you.
We will be fine without Audige. Buie is significantly more difficult to replace.
I know many people love Audige, but he was just so inefficient on offense at such a high volume that it requires people to assign him tons of credit for things that cannot be captured statistically.
In November of 2022, our starting lineup was
Verhoeven / Beran / Berry / Audige / Buie.
In the last 23 games (Big Ten season, plus tournaments) that lineup played a total of 40 minutes, getting outscored 62-57.
Lineup #2 was
Verhoeven / Beran / Roper/ Audige / Buie.
In the last 23 games (Big Ten season, plus tournaments) that lineup played a total of 20 minutes, getting outscored 32-31 - Roper was hurt for 2 thirds of those games.
Our success can be primarily attributed to improved offense and defense from Buie, gigantic jumps in playing time for Nicholson and Barnhizer, with some contribution from the improved defense of Berry and Audige, who did not improve on offense.
And better chemistry.
I know many people love Audige, but he was just so inefficient on offense at such a high volume that it requires people to assign him tons of credit for things that cannot be captured statistically.
In November of 2022, our starting lineup was
Verhoeven / Beran / Berry / Audige / Buie.
In the last 23 games (Big Ten season, plus tournaments) that lineup played a total of 40 minutes, getting outscored 62-57.
Lineup #2 was
Verhoeven / Beran / Roper/ Audige / Buie.
In the last 23 games (Big Ten season, plus tournaments) that lineup played a total of 20 minutes, getting outscored 32-31 - Roper was hurt for 2 thirds of those games.
Our success can be primarily attributed to improved offense and defense from Buie, gigantic jumps in playing time for Nicholson and Barnhizer, with some contribution from the improved defense of Berry and Audige, who did not improve on offense.
And better chemistry.
As a scientist, I struggle with just how much statistics can teach you about the game or a team or a player. I certainly recognize how much you can learn and even learn things that challenge your preconceived notions. However, I also do think there are certain elements that can't always be measured cleanly. Statisticians in all sports have struggled with finding good metrics to truly measure effective defense. I really do think Chase does things on the defensive end that don't show up in a box score, but dramatically impact the game. If there was a way to run a simulation without him doing what he does, I bet it leads to a different (worse) outcome.
But even beyond that, sporting events, especially an emotional game like college basketball, sometimes come down to moments that defy the statistically expected outcomes. And some players don't fit into the statistical box nearly as well. Certainly, there are things we learn about Chase from his numbers that speak to areas where he hurts our competitiveness. But at the same time, he, more than any player on our team, would have these breakout moments that directly determine the direction of the game that belie his overall statistics.
The Purdue game is the perfect example. I don't remember offhand, but I'm pretty certain his overall game numbers were pretty poor for that game. But do we come back and upset Purdue without his explosion at the end? I don't think so. While we didn't win the UCLA game, if we had found a way to hold on, it also would been another one of these moments. How much does knowing Chase can do that at any moment impact the game around him? Do his teammates play with more confidence knowing that Chase will breakout at any moment? Do opposing teams gameplan for him knowing that just because the numbers say he isn't an effective offensive player, they know he is a wildcard who could kill them at any moment if they don't account for him? His stats don't tell the true story I don't think.
I realize this post is making me sound like one of those old scouts sitting around the table with Brad Pitt in Moneyball, but at least I didn't say that the problem with Chase is that he has an ugly girlfriend.
I mean, the turnovers he forced directly and contributed to forcing (harder but possible to count) are a very very easy thing to calculate the massive value of.
Let’s just get em both back and pair them up with a further improved Matty Nicks, blossomed scorer Barney, a new big transfer (and maybe a shooting wing) and see where that takes us.
I have no idea how coaches prepare for games and players, but I would bet that many coaches game-planned for Audige's defensive disruptiveness at least as much as they game-planned for stopping Buie's offense. Sure Audige got a ton of steals, and maybe his plus/minus wasn't as good as it could have been, but just having him on the floor seemed to affect opposing teams in ways that may never be measurable.
I appreciate all of the +/- discussions PWB brings to the table, especially the lineup combination stuff, but I think I feel like the old Moneyball scouts too when it comes to Audige's defense. It's not just stats.
I appreciate all of the +/- discussions PWB brings to the table, especially the lineup combination stuff, but I think I feel like the old Moneyball scouts too when it comes to Audige's defense. It's not just stats.
At a rudimentary level, the team-wide prep is mostly about preparing for defensive tendencies. Does a team sag, do they play on ball, trap, sit in passing lanes, double the post, what zones will they run and when, etc. Coaches would have likely spent a lot of time talking about how NU sits in passing lanes, working on the post double, prepping for outside shots, etc. In terms of watching the lanes they likely would call out Chase as one to be especially careful of. A lot of the Chase specific work would come in the guards watching individual tape to learn tendencies though.
Honestly don't really see either on of them as guards. More in the role of small forwards
Beginning of this season we knew the capabilities of Buie and Audige. Others we were unsure about but not really the guards. Did CA and BB find another gear? Sure but the basic capabilities we knew
Ivy league does not allow 5th year play. A graduating senior would have a Covid year remaining
Agree with this. Every school's fan base has conversations like the ones we're having here and in various other threads, "X will be older, and Y will be improved, and Z will be better in the post and the freshmen will all contribute, so the team will be so much better!" No doubt we had the same conversations in the wake of the 2017 NCAA season. The thing is a lot of teams/players improve and a lot of teams don't, and a lot of times a team improves but still appears to regress because other teams improve even more.
I think what we saw here was that Boo and Chase improved in the way the way fans always hope their players will improve, and given a bunch of other factors, NU coasted into the NCAAs and got second in the Big Ten. Not bad.
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Thanks. Have not really paid attention to IVY league rules. Then it would depend on if they wanted to continue to play.
Your response is thoughtful but in the end it re-inforces what I have been saying.
You can't quantify what a guy adds or subtracts on the defensive end. Not nearly as well as the offensive end.
So it comes down to whether you like the player or not. And then that is based on "intangibles" and its easy enough to have any opinion about that.
There was a running debate about how good Beran was or wasn't defensively. I thought I saw enough of him losing his man or failing to switch or getting pushed out of the way to say that his intangibles were a negative. I think Berry was better than others in those areas. I think Audige gambled a lot and as a consequence, got steals, but was also the guy most likely to be late closing out on a made 3 pointer. There's no doubt that he was very good when he was guarding the guy with the ball.
So all of that stuff is opinion / subjective.
I like the stats because they don't have a personal feeling about anybody.
Did Audige have a few games where he was scoring points in bunches? Yes. Did he have many more games when he put us into a big hole with his missed shots? Absolutely.
That's what's great about the KenPom stuff...and also why people have so many problems with the KenPom stuff. Most people get very emotional about the players/teams they love, so when some dispassionate computer says your team isn't as good as you think it is, you feel insulted. And when the #299 team beats a one-seed, a lot will crap on the computers as being wrong.
The same thing happens to Nate Silver and 538, except that the stakes are that much higher. I will happily remove this line from this post if it causes any problems, but I was just pointing it out.
I love stats, and I love that people have found ways to measure things that never used to be measurable (like a lot of defensive stats in baseball or offensive line stats in football), but I'm also an emotional person, especially when it comes to Northwestern, so I can see both sides.
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To paraphrase "Caine" from the old Kung Fu tv series...
If you have spoken the truth, why would you apologize?
I agree with pretty much everything you said. I guess my point is that there is still room left for subjectivity in the sports world - especially on a sports message board. I like Chase. I think he may be one of my more favorite Wildcat players in a long time. As a long suffering NU fan, I have an inferiority complex and so I am drawn to the players that can do the special things on the court like players I see other, bigger programs have. I remember the days when a Northwestern player dunking in a game was a rare treat.
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