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Nicholson's Development

PurpleWhiteBoy

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Feb 25, 2021
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These are Matt's stats per 40 minutes in Big Ten games.


SeasonMinutesFGFGAFG%FT%ORBDRBAsstsTOStealsBlksPtsFouls
2021-22363.35.660.058.33.35.64.42.20.01.114.410.0
2022-234374.37.259.542.93.95.12.31.51.12.110.54.1
2023-244174.26.366.752.02.75.32.81.20.92.19.75.6
2024-252001.63.447.152.64.67.21.61.61.21.85.23.8

The only obvious area of improvement is in his rebounding numbers.
Much of the stark decline in his Field Goal Attempts has to be attributed to the departure of Boo Buie, who would look for (and find) Nicholson from time to time.
Nicholson set the school record last year for field goal percentage... this year, not so much.

Obviously the question is "Why didn't Matt improve?"
 
I don’t think it is “want to,” since we have all seen his defensive positioning, strength, and shot blocking improve while he fouls less. He is the anti-Martinelli in that unless he flushes it down the cylinder, the shot has no touch and won’t fall. Ever.

Boo was the perfect lead guard to get the most offense from MN because Boo could blow by any defender off the dribble and his endless arsenal of floaters, runners, and leaners meant bigs always had to help, leaving them constantly vulnerable to Nichol-bombs.

Now our elite scorers are isolation, muscle-through-the-lane guys and the opportunities for alley oops just aren’t there. MN is basically creating a traffic jam in the lane most times down the floor.
 
I don’t think it is “want to,” since we have all seen his defensive positioning, strength, and shot blocking improve while he fouls less. He is the anti-Martinelli in that unless he flushes it down the cylinder, the shot has no touch and won’t fall. Ever.

Boo was the perfect lead guard to get the most offense from MN because Boo could blow by any defender off the dribble and his endless arsenal of floaters, runners, and leaners meant bigs always had to help, leaving them constantly vulnerable to Nichol-bombs.

Now our elite scorers are isolation, muscle-through-the-lane guys and the opportunities for alley oops just aren’t there. MN is basically creating a traffic jam in the lane most times down the floor.
Agreed, Nicholson developed into a tremendous defender and he's a good rebounder. But he never developed a post-up game, which is a shame. A nice hook shot would've been a huge weapon from him, from someone his size. His defense is so good that he is indispensable in Big Ten games, but his drop in offensive production without Boo is noticeable.
 
Per 40 stats are extremely misleading when projecting a player who didn’t even play 40 minutes a game all season. These stats also completely overlook defense, which is by far the most improved part of his game. His positioning on both ends is night and day compared to where he started. He’s gotten a lot stronger, is way less foul-prone, and has become a defensive force. That’s been huge for NU, especially with his help defense down low.

Offensively his positioning has improved, he’s sealing off defenders better, and his passing has gotten sharper. Last season, his scoring increased thanks to playing alongside Boo Buie, who was exceptional at creating for others. Nicholson can’t create his own shot, so most of his points came from Boo breaking down defenses and opening things up. It’s not that players are ignoring him now, it’s just that no one else on the team can create the way Boo did. Boo was unique; he drew defenders, collapsed defenses, and opened up lanes for everyone else. No one else on this team can break down a defense off the dribble like that. Buie was electric when he got downhill with his right hand. Barnhizer and Martinelli draw doubles in the post, but that congests the lane, it doesn’t open it up. Which opens things up outside. Nicholson’s lack of a jump shot also further congests the lane.

Bottom line: He’s made huge strides in a lot of not measured by stats parts of his game, and these stats are misleading without the proper context.
 
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Lots of spinning going on here.
Especially the claim that "Per 40" stats are misleading when they are exactly what an unbiased person should be looking at.

Its really easy to say "Oh he's a lot better, but you just can't see it in the stats."
 
Lots of spinning going on here.
Especially the claim that "Per 40" stats are misleading when they are exactly what an unbiased person should be looking at.

Its really easy to say "Oh he's a lot better, but you just can't see it in the stats."
If you don’t think using it to compare numbers from 36 minutes over the course of season compared to full seasons of play is misleading, you need to take a basic stats class. If you can’t tell Nicholson is a ton better defensively than when he first got here, you need to get in some film rooms. Box score stats don’t measure defense. So if a player is really good there they will be better than the stats show.
 
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If you don’t think using it to compare numbers from 36 minutes over the course of season compared to full seasons of play is misleading, you need to take a basic stats class. If you can’t tell Nicholson is a ton better defensively than when he first got here, you need to get in some film rooms. Box score stats don’t measure defense. So if a player is really good there they will be better than the stats show.
Dude you are talking out your rear.
Nobody said anything about his stats as a sophomore. I listed them because he played.
Get a frigging clue.

Your memory must be failing you.

I am the person who said Nicholson should be playing more as a sophomore.
I defended him against the incessant naysayers, including you.
When everybody was dreading the 2022-23 season, I said I thought we might be okay because Barnhizer and Nicholson are better than people think.
I told everybody how the +/- numbers proved Nicholson's value as a junior and noted repeatedly how much he helped the defense.
If I remember right it was Gato, Hungry Jack and me against a lot of critics. Nicholson was essentially our guy. Eventually some of the critics came around.

Nicholson has been a strong defender since Lowery showed up. But he hasn't really improved much since that 2022-23 season - and not at all on the offensive end.

The table makes that pretty damned clear.
 
Dude you are talking out your rear.
Nobody said anything about his stats as a sophomore. I listed them because he played.
Get a frigging clue.

Your memory must be failing you.

I am the person who said Nicholson should be playing more as a sophomore.
I defended him against the incessant naysayers, including you.
When everybody was dreading the 2022-23 season, I said I thought we might be okay because Barnhizer and Nicholson are better than people think.
I told everybody how the +/- numbers proved Nicholson's value as a junior and noted repeatedly how much he helped the defense.
If I remember right it was Gato, Hungry Jack and me against a lot of critics. Nicholson was essentially our guy. Eventually some of the critics came around.

Nicholson has been a strong defender since Lowery showed up. But he hasn't really improved much since that 2022-23 season - and not at all on the offensive end.

The table makes that pretty damned clear.
I think I have a pretty solid understanding of basketball and numbers. Nicholson became a much better passer after the 22-23 season. However, between the 23-24 and 24-25 seasons, he was rehabbing an injury. It’s incredibly difficult to improve your game when you’re essentially working with one leg for the entire offseason. Unfortunately, the data doesn’t capture that context.

Nicholson also didn’t have the natural offensive touch to develop a polished post game, but that’s not a knock on the coaches. Every player has their limitations, and despite those, Nicholson still managed to become a solid B1G center. Individual development is ultimately the player's responsibility, but the program’s role is to provide consistent coaching and structure.

I was never opposed to him; I just said he wasn’t ready yet. And honestly, I’ve held that view with most of the freshmen NU has brought in. I’m not quick to write off players after one year. Just because someone isn’t ready in their first season doesn’t mean they won’t be successful later on. Many of the players just didn’t offer enough defensively to justify the minutes some were clamoring for. There’s a difference between acknowledging that a player isn’t ready yet and saying they’ll never contribute. A player might become very good in their junior year, but that doesn’t mean they should’ve been getting significant minutes as a freshman/sophmore. Development is a real thing. You can credit Lowry all you want for his defensive development even though James was the one who has most been credited with working with big men under CC. If that makes me a naysayer so be it, but I don’t think it does.
 
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Dude you are talking out your rear.
Nobody said anything about his stats as a sophomore. I listed them because he played.
Get a frigging clue.

Your memory must be failing you.

I am the person who said Nicholson should be playing more as a sophomore.
I defended him against the incessant naysayers, including you.
When everybody was dreading the 2022-23 season, I said I thought we might be okay because Barnhizer and Nicholson are better than people think.
I told everybody how the +/- numbers proved Nicholson's value as a junior and noted repeatedly how much he helped the defense.
If I remember right it was Gato, Hungry Jack and me against a lot of critics. Nicholson was essentially our guy. Eventually some of the critics came around.

Nicholson has been a strong defender since Lowery showed up. But he hasn't really improved much since that 2022-23 season - and not at all on the offensive end.

The table makes that pretty damned clear.
I guess this is another passive aggressive attempt to blame the Coaches on Big Matt’s lack of development on the offensive end. If it isn’t then it’s an indictment of either the skill set or work ethic of “your guy”. Blaming Coaches when Big Matt fumbles passes with regularity and either won’t take or cant even make a 6 foot shot is the absurd.

I’ll will actually say what I think instead of imply it and then claim I said something different. Big Matt is overall our best big man. He is exceptional on defense. We will miss his presence next year. He has zero offensive game. It hurts the team in that end of the court and it’s a major reason ( not the only one) that teams can double or triple team our two best players. I think pretty much everyone agrees on this. You ask why? I would bet anything Big Matt works his ass off and James and CCC have run countless drills for hours on the offensive end of the court over the last 5 years. I doubt they are sitting on the sidelines eating Bon Bon’s telling Big Matt, just clog the middle and tip a few balls out to Leach every game. As I said earlier, sometimes you just can’t fight Mother Nature.
 
At this point in his career at NU Big Matt is who he is. Defensively he can be a force to be reckoned with. Just look at the Maryland and Indiana games in the 2nd half and the gigantic blocks he came up with when the game was on the line.
Offensively last night he was 3 of 4 from the field 2 of 2 from the free throw line had 5 rebounds 1 of which was an ORB. Sounds good however 2 of those baskets were in garbage time. Is he a good passer yes. But when push comes to shove his offensive game has never developed. Last game against Illinois Fitzmorris had 2 or 3 hook shots that actually went in that Nicholson doesn't even try. He rarely turns and tries to lower his shoulder and drive to the basket and score or draw a foul.
If a pass isn't shoulder high or higher he has a problem. His FT shooting is problematic as he is shooting 50%. Like I said he is what he is. A good defensive ballplayer whose offensive game never developed. Is he the best we have at center yes. That is OK but just OK. Will we miss him next year sure because we have nothing in the pipeline Hunger does not look like he has improved and Bannerman is going to need time to work on his game and in the weight room. So we have to open the books on the NIL or the Congress NCAA agreement and get a good center.
 
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Big Matt is great and I appreciate his hard work and effort. If he'd had better coaching he could have been a true offensive powerhouse, but considering the staff he's had working with him, I think he's developed amazingly well.
 
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I think the injury set him back as well. Couldn't work on getting better offensively this past summer and I think maybe that has affected his confidence in that area, Also, it seems like he has trouble handling passes.
 
You can't just teach anyone the high-level kinetic abilities needed to play sports at a major college level. You can't take a six foot two 200 pound guy and get him to hit a 95 MPH fastball, or a 6 foot guy with 4.5 speed and teach him to catch a football in full-speed traffic. And you can't just teach 7 foot guys to catch and shoot jump shots in the midst of BIG10 game speed defense. You can power through in sports and functions that don't require the high-level coordination and reactions, but not just anyone return, or hit, a 130 MPH tennis serve just by practicing more. No level of coaching can change that.
 
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You can't just teach anyone the high-level kinetic abilities needed to play sports at a major college level. You can't take a six foot two 200 pound guy and get him to hit a 95 MPH fastball, or a 6 foot guy with 4.5 speed and teach him to catch a football in full-speed traffic. And you can't just teach 7 foot guys to catch and shoot jump shots in the midst of BIG10 game speed defense. You can power through in sports and functions that don't require the high-level coordination and reactions, but not just anyone return, or hit, a 130 MPH tennis serve just by practicing more. No level of coaching can change that.
When the wheels come off, the blame game almost always focuses on Coaches. It’s almost always by people that have never been in the arena.
 
Pretty disappointing that he never developed any offensive move past a dunk, and even that is questionable at times if it isn’t directly off an alley oop. Too often he’s an offensive black hole. I like the guy because he does contribute in other ways, but we’d be better if he could be counted on for 8-10 pts per game consistently. He appears to be a large guy with zero feel or touch for handling a basketball.
 
PPD I'm disappointed in you.

I posted the stats on Nicholson, a player whom I have always liked, to express my disappointment in his development.
I asked why people thought that was the case.
And from a vocal few I got accusations and weird takes.
From some others I got thoughtful comments.

Its is really odd to read comments like "Brian James is responsible for the big guys" when everybody knows Nicholson became a good defender because of Lowery. If you want to blame Brian James for Nicholson's offensive woes, thats your choice. I'd say we just don't have any coach who can teach the bigs how to post up and score.
 
PPD I'm disappointed in you.

I posted the stats on Nicholson, a player whom I have always liked, to express my disappointment in his development.
I asked why people thought that was the case.
And from a vocal few I got accusations and weird takes.
From some others I got thoughtful comments.

Its is really odd to read comments like "Brian James is responsible for the big guys" when everybody knows Nicholson became a good defender because of Lowery. If you want to blame Brian James for Nicholson's offensive woes, thats your choice. I'd say we just don't have any coach who can teach the bigs how to post up and score.
If only someone taught Ryan Young or Pardon how to score. If someone could have taught the 16/17 team how to play tough switching man defense with a strong defensive post presence they might have made the tournament.

I have given many posts thoughtfully analyzing Nicholsons development.

Really odd to see comments crediting all of NU’s coaching accomplishments to Lowery when Collins and James made the tournament before he got here. I do like Lowery a ton as a coach. It’s just weird to see someone give so much credit to an assistant coach to attempt to discredit a head coach.
 
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