Predictions of this type are always difficult for me. As a fan, I want to be optimistic in the days leading up to the first game, but the 2021 season still lingers in my mind like a bad hangover.
The main problem is our defense. I had grown so accustomed to Mike Hankwitz's defenses that I took them for granted. In the three years before he retired (2018, 2019, 2020), the Northwestern defense had become a thing of beauty, a most formidable weapon, and all it needed was a halfway decent offense in order to achieve greatness. I had almost forgotten how moribund our defenses were prior to Mike Hankwiz, and my deepest fear is that we may now return to those dark days of yesteryear. Of course, there is always hope that the new DC can somehow right the ship, but after the disaster that was the 2021 season, he is going to have to prove that to me on the field. For now, I would be happy with just a mediocre defense by Big Ten standards.
Just as I had grown accustomed to having a good defense, I think our offense did the same thing. Since the departure of Kain Colter and Trevor Siemian, our offenses can be characterized by a distinct lack of explosiveness. It was as if our entire emphasis was on long, ball-control drives and avoiding turnovers, and by focusing on that, we sacrificed the ability score to quickly and abundantly, something we had perfected under Randy Walker. This becomes a serious problem if a low scoring offense must now be married to a less than stellar -- or even below average -- defense. This is what really worries me.
Add into this discussion the fact that we open against Nebraska, who kicked our collective ass out of the stadium last year. While they had a losing record overall, they were in almost all of their games, including games against quality opponents, and their coaching staff is sell-its-soul desperate for a win on a big stage, and this Dublin game is the biggest stage this week.
Yet, even with all of these factors working against us, I trust in Fitz and I believe there is a path to victory. To put it simply, the offense has to step up. It has to be able to win games of the 35-31 variety. Our defense will be improved, but the Cornhuskers will still put up 24 to 30 points. It is up to Bajakian's offense to counter that and achieve a knockout punch. I think everyone on the team knows this and has been aware of it since the end of last season, which is why I am predicting a 35 - 31 Wildcat victory.
Go 'Cats!