Doesn't base defense basically imply "most used defense?" Unless you've got some really balanced variance, I don't get it. I'd assume your base has to be doing decent for you. (or else it hasn't been properly tested by the opposition or something)
If NW is getting aggressive with blitzing (non base?) I'd watch out for screen plays. Iowa has had a variety of them this year, and they've worked much better in the past.
I agree we should challenge your WRs. It'll be interesting if we go predominantly man. We mix in quite a bit of zone usually. I'd go man, maybe keep a safety back part of the time. Let the other safety roam the box. (traditionally we don't cheat on defense, though)
Iowa had success running on Wisconsin (Canzeri went over 100) but it wasn't a huge day. Point is, even against a very good defense like theirs we've had some success. Our interior line is really strong and we're able to get good push on inside runs. So I expect at least some success running.. but am skeptical that we'll have the level of success needed to put up many points on that alone.
With Beathard and the pass game I'd love for some short screens/slants and then some max protect situations where we take shots downfield. We'll be rather calculated in the pass game. Don't know how that turns out.
I agree that a low scoring game seems like a good bet.
(x factors being Beathard/Iowa pass and the usual special teams/turnover strangeness that can't be predicted)