NU's NIT position enhanced by today's game?

[Alaskawildkat]

Taking it into overtime and then getting a lead in OT, not to mention the obvious officiating blunders, has to look pretty impressive to the NIT committee despite the loss. Then too if our loss to Michigan propels them to a NCAA invite won't that free up one more NIT slot for us?

 

[thewildcat2011]

Taking it into overtime and then getting a lead in OT, not to mention the obvious officiating blunders, has to look pretty impressive to the NIT committee despite the loss. Then too if our loss to Michigan propels them to a NCAA invite won't that free up one more NIT slot for us?

No.

 

[Alaskawildkat]

No.

No to both questions or simply that Michigan's winning its game with Indiana and then (as per today's game crew) likely qualifying for a NCAA bid will not open up one more slot for The B1G in the NIT?

It is hard for me to see how anyone considering NU for post season play would not be impressed by the way The Wildcats played today-----assuming they watched at least the last ten minutes.

 

[thewildcat2011]

No to both questions or simply that Michigan's winning its game with Indiana and then (as per today's game crew) likely qualifying for a NCAA bid will not open up one more slot for The B1G in the NIT?

It is hard for me to see how anyone considering NU for post season play would not be impressed by the way The Wildcats played today-----assuming they watched at least the last ten minutes.

To both questions. There's no question the 'Cats left their heart out there today, but the metrics aren't there. Almost all projects already had us missing the NIT or being the last team in. Then we lost the game. Unless Jim Phillips or whatever powers that be pull of a miracle, we won't be in the NIT this year.

 

[EvanstonCat]

Taking it into overtime and then getting a lead in OT, not to mention the obvious officiating blunders, has to look pretty impressive to the NIT committee despite the loss. Then too if our loss to Michigan propels them to a NCAA invite won't that free up one more NIT slot for us?

No on NIT slots - it's a zero sum between NIT and NCAA slots. If Michigan goes to the NCAA, it means someone is pushed out and into the NIT. No extra slot.

 

[Wrestlerneverdiesasacatfan]

We r in NIT

 

[MC_Cat]

I also think we're in. And I agree with Alaska, I think today's performance, even in a loss, helped our position.

 

[thewildcat2011]

I mean, let's hope. But prepare for bitter disappointment

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

I also think we're in. And I agree with Alaska, I think today's performance, even in a loss, helped our position.

Very, very unlikely. It's due to the chaos in the mid/low major conference tournaments.

I'll keep updating that thread as the week goes on, but we are looking at 9-10 (depending on your opinion of UNC-Wilmington) confirmed NIT bid thieves with 11 tournaments remaining. This may very well be the hardest NIT bubble since the NCAA tournament expanded to 68.

 

[Bradleywildcatsfan]

Very, very unlikely. It's due to the chaos in the mid/low major conference tournaments.

I'll keep updating that thread as the week goes on, but we are looking at 9-10 (depending on your opinion of UNC-Wilmington) confirmed NIT bid thieves with 11 tournaments remaining. This may very well be the hardest NIT bubble since the NCAA tournament expanded to 68.

I get that Columbus, but most NIT at-large bids tend to go to the Power 5 conferences, and the A-10, AAC, and Big East. Even if say 17 bid thieves turn up, which is quite possible, there will still be 15 at-large slots open. Looking at the top 8 conferences, it looks like there are no NIT eligible teams in the Big 12 and the Big East, unless Creighton sneaks in. There are also some bubble teams still out there like BYU, Evansville and St. Mary's (if they don't earn an at-large NCAA Tournament bid), but most NIT at-large teams will still be selected from the aforementioned top 8 conferences. That said, will Northwestern be the first Power 5 team that I can remember that does not make the NIT with 20 wins? It's possible considering how soft their OOC schedule was, but that will make for an interesting discussion in the NIT committee room this weekend.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

I get that Columbus, but most NIT at-large bids tend to go to the Power 5 conferences, and the A-10, AAC, and Big East. Even if say 17 bid thieves turn up, which is quite possible, there will still be 15 at-large slots open. Looking at the top 8 conferences, it looks like there are no NIT eligible teams in the Big 12 and the Big East, unless Creighton sneaks in. There are also some bubble teams still out there like BYU, Evansville and St. Mary's (if they don't earn an at-large NCAA Tournament bid), but most NIT at-large teams will still be selected from the aforementioned top 8 conferences. That said, will Northwestern be the first Power 5 team that I can remember that does not make the NIT with 20 wins? It's possible considering how soft their OOC schedule was, but that will make for an interesting discussion in the NIT committee room this weekend.

Like I said in the other thread, I couldn't find a 20 win power 5 school that's been left out of the NIT and I went back over 10 years worth of data. That being said, NU may very well become the first.

It's not only the schedule that is hurting the 'Cats. NU's RPI is very weak (107) and is 2-11 against the RPI top 100. Beating Michigan would been huge there.

I'm all about wishing & hoping (if anybody didn't notice already, I love the NIT), but outside of chalk in the rest of the conference tournaments coupled with no borderline squads getting hot (haven't been paying much attention to the power 5 tournaments other than NU-Michigan), I can't see a path. Maybe Phillips has dirt on some committee members?

Here are the teams generally considered outside of the NCAA bubble ("first 8 out") that have better resumes than NU (according to the 3 NIT projection webpages).

High Majors (8)
Alabama
Clemson
Georgia
Marquette
Ohio State
Ole Miss
Stanford
Washington

Mid/Low Majors (4)
Boise State
Davidson
Evansville
California Irvine

If you trust those doing the NIT projections, 30 of the 32 bids are spoken for (20 at large + 10 bid thieves).

Sure NU may jump a school or two on this list via power 5 homer-ism and yes, they theoretically could still land a bid, but it sure ain't looking good.

 

[MC_Cat]

I like us over Clemson, Marquette, Boise State (for sure), Cal Irvine, and Stanford. We're close to Ole Miss as well but they probably get in with similar overall record, but winning in SEC, and Moody as star power.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

I like us over Clemson, Marquette, Boise State (for sure), Cal Irvine, and Stanford. We're close to Ole Miss as well but they probably get in with similar overall record, but winning in SEC, and Moody as star power.

Not sure I agree. NU has the worst RPI/SOS combo and fewest top 100 wins of any of the teams you mentioned. Maybe a stronger than 25 win Irvine...maybe.

VIA CBS sports:

Northwestern
RPI: 111
SOS: 131
TOP 100: 2-11

Boise State
RPI: 98
SOS: 114
TOP 100: 4-4

California Irvine
RPI: 69
SOS: 153
TOP 100: 3-9

Clemson
RPI: 124
SOS: 94
TOP 100: 7-11 (3 Top 25 wins)

Marquette
RPI: 108
SOS: 92
TOP 100: 7-11

Stanford
RPI: 83
SOS: 2
TOP 100: 6-15 (3 Top 25 wins)

 

[hdhntr1]

Like I said in the other thread, I couldn't find a 20 win power 5 school that's been left out of the NIT and I went back over 10 years worth of data. That being said, NU may very well become the first.

It's not only the schedule that is hurting the 'Cats. NU's RPI is very weak (107) and is 2-11 against the RPI top 100. Beating Michigan would been huge there.

I'm all about wishing & hoping (if anybody didn't notice already, I love the NIT), but outside of chalk in the rest of the conference tournaments coupled with no borderline squads getting hot (haven't been paying much attention to the power 5 tournaments other than NU-Michigan), I can't see a path. Maybe Phillips has dirt on some committee members?

Here are the teams generally considered outside of the NCAA bubble ("first 8 out") that have better resumes than NU (according to the 3 NIT projection webpages).

High Majors (8)
Alabama
Clemson
Georgia
Marquette
Ohio State
Ole Miss
Stanford
Washington

Mid/Low Majors (4)
Boise State
Davidson
Evansville
California Irvine

If you trust those doing the NIT projections, 30 of the 32 bids are spoken for (20 at large + 10 bid thieves).

Sure NU may jump a school or two on this list via power 5 homer-ism and yes, they theoretically could still land a bid, but it sure ain't looking good.

I would think that the Michigan win over Indiana puts them in NCAA and what other BIG team would there be for NIT? Have to think that they would want at least 1.

 

[MC_Cat]

We'll see, but I just don't think the NIT Selection Committee looks at things the same way the NCAA Selection Committee does. I think they will see a team playing well at the end of the year with no bad losses, but lots of losses against really good teams (including UM apparently!). Clemson folded late in the year, Stanford totally tanked and Marquette has been less than impressive all year. UC Irvine may have a nice RPI but c'mon, we could've competed for that conference title this year. Not impressed with Boise State either, just not a very good conference this year.

 

[thewildcat2011]

We'll see, but I just don't think the NIT Selection Committee looks at things the same way the NCAA Selection Committee does. I think they will see a team playing well at the end of the year with no bad losses, but lots of losses against really good teams (including UM apparently!). Clemson folded late in the year, Stanford totally tanked and Marquette has been less than impressive all year. UC Irvine may have a nice RPI but c'mon, we could've competed for that conference title this year. Not impressed with Boise State either, just not a very good conference this year.

Unfortunately, the NIT looks at things exactly the same way as the NCAA and are on record as saying they have the same criteria.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

I would think that the Michigan win over Indiana puts them in NCAA and what other BIG team would there be for NIT? Have to think that they would want at least 1.

I would buy this, but unfortunately Ohio State is most likely headed to the NIT. Barring some craziness in the fieldhouse over the next few days (Michigan over Indy was a start) the Big 10 won't get 8 teams in the dance this year.

 

[thewildcat2011]

I would think that the Michigan win over Indiana puts them in NCAA and what other BIG team would there be for NIT? Have to think that they would want at least 1.

At least 1 would be Ohio State

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

We'll see, but I just don't think the NIT Selection Committee looks at things the same way the NCAA Selection Committee does. I think they will see a team playing well at the end of the year with no bad losses, but lots of losses against really good teams (including UM apparently!). Clemson folded late in the year, Stanford totally tanked and Marquette has been less than impressive all year. UC Irvine may have a nice RPI but c'mon, we could've competed for that conference title this year. Not impressed with Boise State either, just not a very good conference this year.

As another poster mentioned, the NIT is supposed to be using the NCAA criterion now.

Stanford has played 21 (!) top 100 programs and owns the #2 SOS in the country. I get that they are 15-15, but it's really hard to argue that NU is a better team. Clemson beat 3 top 25 teams. NU finished 5-5 in their last 10 games of the season, so those wins over the bottom half of the conference were fun, but not particularly impressive to the committee. Remember, the 'Cats beat both Wisconsin and Virginia Tech before those squads got their acts together.

Unless you have a NU bias (I have one too - it's the reason why I'm still holding out hope in even through the bleakness), the metrics fairly are stacked against the 'Cats. If Michigan and Ohio State both reach the BIG final (thus locking up NCAA at large bids), then NU could at least play the "you need a team from the Big 10" card.

A month or so ago I felt (assuming a reasonable amount of bid thieves) 20 wins (either 8-10 or 7-11 + 1 win in Indy) would be absolute minimum to sneak into the NIT. If the committee were selecting today I would still feel the same. The problem is it's very likely more auto bids will be given out through Sunday. That's what is killing NU's chances.

FWIW, NU does have a bad loss (sub 100 RPI). Penn State.