My older son and I were talking through all the scenarios, and I think NU will be the first team out of the NY6 bowls, maybe 2nd team out, at least based on the latest CFP ranking projections from Pete Fiutak and Ed Feng.
Here is my analysis for those that care:
Wikipedia has a good summary, specifically under Non-playoff bowl selection criteria:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_Football_Playoff
the two semi-final games are the Cotton Bowl and Orange Bowl this year. So as I understand it, regardless of the 4 playoff teams, the B1G, Pac12, SEC and Big12 all have guaranteed non-playoff spots. The ACC does not have a guaranteed non-playoff spot unless the ACC champion is not a playoff team in which case the ACC champion is guaranteed a spot in either the Fiesta or Peach bowls. The only way that might happen is if North Carolina beats Clemson but remains outside the top 4. So further, if any of the B1G, Pac12, SEC and Big12 make the top 4, they are also guaranteed a second NY6 bowl team. Also, as I understand it, the committee must select from the highest ranked teams unless the guaranteed spots would result in someone outside the top 11/12. For example, this year, the Group of Five participant will most likely come from outside the top 12 teams, therefore, the top 11 teams plus the Group of Five will be part of the CFP playoffs and NY6 bowls. There could be some further disruption this year if the B1G, Pac12, SEC and Big12 non-playoff qualifiers are not in the top 11. For example:
B1G — no issues here as Ohio State at a minimum would be a top 11 team since they are done playing and are well within the top 11; the winner of B1G championship is in final four. The loser of the B1G championship game would also likely be in the top 11, and would only displaced if other conferences fill their spots from outside the top 11. So either Ohio State or the B1G championship loser takes the Rose Bowl slot, and the other an at-large spot.
Pac 12 — the Pac 12 has a very remote chance to be disruptive to the selection process, if and only if Stanford wins the Pac 12 championship and somehow makes the top 4, in which case another Pac 12 team would be selected to the Rose Bowl slot even though they would not be in the top 11. Again, this scenario is very likely because North Carolina would need to beat Clemson and both stay out of the top 4 and Florida would need to beat Alabama. If both those things happen, you could have scenario where Ohio State and Stanford sneak in.
SEC — It is near impossible for the SEC to not get two teams into the Final Four and/or NY6. As of right now, assuming Alabama beats Florida, the SEC will get Alabama in the final four, and one more team takes the automatic spot in the Sugar Bowl. Based on current rankings and projections, that second team will be Ole Miss, even though they probably won’t be top 11, so that eats up another spot in the pecking order. Or if Florida is picked, they will definitely be outside the top 11, bringing things to top 10. In the unlikely scenario that Florida beats Alabama, they would get the Sugar Bowl spot (pretty sure as champion) and then Alabama would get an at-large spot. I don’t think Ole Miss would make it high enough uno top 11 to get a third SEC spot.
Big 12 — It is inconceivable that Oklahoma does not have have final four spot wrapped up. Therefore, the Big 12 gets one more NY6 spot. So you are looking at Baylor or TCU. And quite possible neither are in top 10/11. So that would eat up a spot, bringing things to top 9.
So my projections:
Final Four: Clemson, B1G Champion, Oklahoma, Alabama (not in any order)
Rose Bowl: B1G (Ohio State) vs Pac 12 (Stanford)
Sugar Bowl: SEC (Ole Miss) vs Big 12 (Baylor)
Fiesta Bowl: At -Large vs Group of Five
Peach Bowl: At-Large vs At-Large
This leaves spots for the top 3 remaining teams in the rankings: B1G Championship Loser/Ohio State, Florida State, Notre Dame. Northwestern would likely be the first team out. Probably the only way NU sneaks into NY6 is if Iowa absolutely destroys Michigan State, and they tumble outside the top 11, and we sneak in.
Here is my analysis for those that care:
Wikipedia has a good summary, specifically under Non-playoff bowl selection criteria:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_Football_Playoff
the two semi-final games are the Cotton Bowl and Orange Bowl this year. So as I understand it, regardless of the 4 playoff teams, the B1G, Pac12, SEC and Big12 all have guaranteed non-playoff spots. The ACC does not have a guaranteed non-playoff spot unless the ACC champion is not a playoff team in which case the ACC champion is guaranteed a spot in either the Fiesta or Peach bowls. The only way that might happen is if North Carolina beats Clemson but remains outside the top 4. So further, if any of the B1G, Pac12, SEC and Big12 make the top 4, they are also guaranteed a second NY6 bowl team. Also, as I understand it, the committee must select from the highest ranked teams unless the guaranteed spots would result in someone outside the top 11/12. For example, this year, the Group of Five participant will most likely come from outside the top 12 teams, therefore, the top 11 teams plus the Group of Five will be part of the CFP playoffs and NY6 bowls. There could be some further disruption this year if the B1G, Pac12, SEC and Big12 non-playoff qualifiers are not in the top 11. For example:
B1G — no issues here as Ohio State at a minimum would be a top 11 team since they are done playing and are well within the top 11; the winner of B1G championship is in final four. The loser of the B1G championship game would also likely be in the top 11, and would only displaced if other conferences fill their spots from outside the top 11. So either Ohio State or the B1G championship loser takes the Rose Bowl slot, and the other an at-large spot.
Pac 12 — the Pac 12 has a very remote chance to be disruptive to the selection process, if and only if Stanford wins the Pac 12 championship and somehow makes the top 4, in which case another Pac 12 team would be selected to the Rose Bowl slot even though they would not be in the top 11. Again, this scenario is very likely because North Carolina would need to beat Clemson and both stay out of the top 4 and Florida would need to beat Alabama. If both those things happen, you could have scenario where Ohio State and Stanford sneak in.
SEC — It is near impossible for the SEC to not get two teams into the Final Four and/or NY6. As of right now, assuming Alabama beats Florida, the SEC will get Alabama in the final four, and one more team takes the automatic spot in the Sugar Bowl. Based on current rankings and projections, that second team will be Ole Miss, even though they probably won’t be top 11, so that eats up another spot in the pecking order. Or if Florida is picked, they will definitely be outside the top 11, bringing things to top 10. In the unlikely scenario that Florida beats Alabama, they would get the Sugar Bowl spot (pretty sure as champion) and then Alabama would get an at-large spot. I don’t think Ole Miss would make it high enough uno top 11 to get a third SEC spot.
Big 12 — It is inconceivable that Oklahoma does not have have final four spot wrapped up. Therefore, the Big 12 gets one more NY6 spot. So you are looking at Baylor or TCU. And quite possible neither are in top 10/11. So that would eat up a spot, bringing things to top 9.
So my projections:
Final Four: Clemson, B1G Champion, Oklahoma, Alabama (not in any order)
Rose Bowl: B1G (Ohio State) vs Pac 12 (Stanford)
Sugar Bowl: SEC (Ole Miss) vs Big 12 (Baylor)
Fiesta Bowl: At -Large vs Group of Five
Peach Bowl: At-Large vs At-Large
This leaves spots for the top 3 remaining teams in the rankings: B1G Championship Loser/Ohio State, Florida State, Notre Dame. Northwestern would likely be the first team out. Probably the only way NU sneaks into NY6 is if Iowa absolutely destroys Michigan State, and they tumble outside the top 11, and we sneak in.
- Rose Bowl — Big Ten #1 vs. Pac-12 #1
- Sugar Bowl — SEC #1 vs. Big 12 #1
- Orange Bowl — ACC #1 vs. SEC #2, Big Ten #2, or Notre Dame —> National Semi-final
- Cotton Bowl — at-large or "Group of Five" (committee selection) —> National Semi-final
- Fiesta Bowl — at-large or "Group of Five" (committee selection)
- Peach Bowl — at-large or "Group of Five" (committee selection)
- The highest-ranked champion from the "Group of Five" conferences (The American, C-USA, Mid-American, Mountain West, and Sun Belt) is guaranteed a berth if the group's top team is not in the playoff.
- The remaining five at-large bids are determined by committee rankings.
- In years when the Orange Bowl is a national semifinal, the ACC champion plays in the Fiesta or Peach bowls if it is not selected for the playoff.
- And some more stuff form the article…..
