Opening line for Iowa
- Thread starter TejasCat
- Start date
Wow, take the points. Iowa has lost two in a row; and has essentially zero chance at winning the West at this point. Their defense, which was a strength, has been figured out the last two weeks, and they didn't even slow Purdue down.
College football is a game of momentum and emotion, and all of that has to be negative for them after two tough losses..
Yeah, I was expecting Iowa as a 6-8 point favorite. When their offense is playing well they can get points against anybody. But they have nowhere near the weapons or talent (speed/size) that ND has.
This feels like it can play out like the Michigan State and Wisconsin games; if we play well and we take away Iowa's running game, we can force Stanley to make mistakes and win off of those mistakes.
I don’t get the Iowa love by Vegas.
They lost to all the pretty good match-up opponents they’ve played this year (PSU, UW and PU) including one of those at home.
NU also has a meaningfully better defense than Iowa statistically (note: 3rd in B1G scoring D behind only Michigan and MSU) despite playing a harder B1G slate of teams to date than Iowa (UM/ MSU/ Nebraska/ Rutgers vs PSU/ Mary/ Minny/ IU).
Iowa’s offense is also the type that NU matches up very well with and has locked down pretty well this year (like UM, UW, MSU). NU’s D this year is built perfectly for UW and Iowa. Spread offenses like Nebby, PU and ND scare me more.
Nate Stanley is also the prototypical gaff machine Iowa QB that our secondary has picked on the past decade.
Our offense matches up pretty well with their defense too, which is merely a solid group on par with Wisconsin and Purdue. The Iowa D is nowhere near UM or MSU (or ND) level.
B1G Team Stats:
https://bigten.org/confstats.aspx/2018-19/fb/confonly?path=football#team
I may actually make a bet this week...
They lost to all the pretty good match-up opponents they’ve played this year (PSU, UW and PU) including one of those at home.
NU also has a meaningfully better defense than Iowa statistically (note: 3rd in B1G scoring D behind only Michigan and MSU) despite playing a harder B1G slate of teams to date than Iowa (UM/ MSU/ Nebraska/ Rutgers vs PSU/ Mary/ Minny/ IU).
Iowa’s offense is also the type that NU matches up very well with and has locked down pretty well this year (like UM, UW, MSU). NU’s D this year is built perfectly for UW and Iowa. Spread offenses like Nebby, PU and ND scare me more.
Nate Stanley is also the prototypical gaff machine Iowa QB that our secondary has picked on the past decade.
Our offense matches up pretty well with their defense too, which is merely a solid group on par with Wisconsin and Purdue. The Iowa D is nowhere near UM or MSU (or ND) level.
B1G Team Stats:
https://bigten.org/confstats.aspx/2018-19/fb/confonly?path=football#team
I may actually make a bet this week...
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Stats are actually pretty comparable across the board between NU an IA. Of course "stats are....."
Note that Flynn Nagel actually has a higher average yards per catch (12.3) than Rondale Moore (11.0). Never would have thought that after watching Moore dismantle NU in Game 1.
Yeah I don't get it either.
Iowa's still top 10 in Sagarin after these two losses. That Purdue loss especially exposed defensive problems across the board (though anyone would acknowledge that Purdue has a ton of weapons).
Iowa doesn't have the edge speed to force CT out of the pocket, and their secondary gets lost in coverage.
On the flip side, their offense can be stalled by a good defense (though I'd acknowledge it is their much stronger unit). The same way we closed Wisconsin's running game we should be able to do the same here and then force Stanley to throw to covered receivers.
I feel like Iowa can be beaten as long as we get the OL/DL play we had against Wisconsin or Nebraska.
The 10 point line just seems way too favorable to Iowa. I think we're underdogs in their place, but they can't just out talent us like ND did in the trenches and their weapons.
I think our OL/DL play vs. Notre Dame was better than it was vs Wisconsin and especially Nebraska (where it wasn’t that great).
We also play Iowa better at Kinnick than Ryan for some inexplicable reason.
And after seeing them up close, ND is an elite team that would have blown out PU, UW and PSU... They make you earn everything on defense and they can make offensive plays all over the field (or just pound you with downhill running if they want).
I wonder what stats Sagarin is looking at. Iowa is 5th in the B1G in scoring defense (behind Maryland) and 10th in total Offense (just one notch ahead of NU).
I think Iowa is much better than those type of stats would indicate, but what in the hell is Sagarin looking at to still place them at 10???
Looks like he is overrating BIG teams BIG time for some reason-- he has 6 of them in the top 20, with Penn State at an equally inexplicable 8
Hello Wildcats. I agree that the line is baffling, especially with the emotional factor. Harder to get the troops up after two gut wrenching losses that took us out of the B1G West race.
Only one comment in the whole thread that I’d disagree with; “Iowa doesn't have the edge speed to force CT out of the pocket, and their secondary gets lost in coverage.” The two freshmen CBs have had ups and downs, but with Epenesa in the game and Hooker dropping down to an additional LB spot, any pocket passer will need to have their head on a swivel. That said, I expect a lot of short drop, quick release stuff, so pass rush will be less important than playing assignment football with your receivers. Good luck Saturday.
Only one comment in the whole thread that I’d disagree with; “Iowa doesn't have the edge speed to force CT out of the pocket, and their secondary gets lost in coverage.” The two freshmen CBs have had ups and downs, but with Epenesa in the game and Hooker dropping down to an additional LB spot, any pocket passer will need to have their head on a swivel. That said, I expect a lot of short drop, quick release stuff, so pass rush will be less important than playing assignment football with your receivers. Good luck Saturday.
I already bet NU +10.5.
It will be interesting to see where the market goes on this one.
It will be interesting to see where the market goes on this one.
That's fair. I want to make it clear that I think Iowa is still a good team (and should have won both of their previous games).
I think Iowa is a fair favorite being the home team and having good skill players but we should have our chances to make a game of it and perhaps take it.
I expect a tough battle as most of our games are.
Naw you guys are a 10 point favorite. Don't even need to practice this week. Just show up.
Hmm, I don't see how they can be considered 10pt favorites over the Wildcats. If I were a betting man I would rush in a bet on the Cats.
I mean, ND was a 10 point favorite vs. us and they were #3 in the country! Line makes no sense at all.
I was expecting the line to be 5 or 6. I realize how lines are set, but something is "off" if it is 10 or 11.
Yup. 5 or 6 was what I expected for an Iowa home game. 10 or 11 seems like a huge miss to me, regardless of outcome...
It's basically the models that people use consider Iowa to be better than ND based on advanced statistics and metrics.
[In this case, I think it's a case of garbage in, garbage out. ND is much better than Iowa; all the advanced statistics in the world can't change that.]
And as always, football is a game of matchups; Iowa is a similar team to Wisconsin; we'll have our opportunities against them if we play the same way we have.
With home field (3 pts) factored in, the line is saying ND is 6 points better than Iowa on a neutral. But yeah, the line makes no sense at 10.
Right. What the lines the last two weeks have said is this (assuming a constant 3 points for home field, which isn't exactly accurate as it is team-dependent):
ND @ NU = ND -10
NU @ ND = ND -16
NU @ Iowa = Iowa -10
Iowa @ NU = Iowa -4
For us simpletons not completely in the gambling know, can someone explain the reasoning behind this line?
Computer models still think Iowa is a top 10-15 team.
It's basically that Iowa crushed the bad and weaker teams on their schedule and so they look like a much better team than us...
I can't; I really thought it would be Iowa -3 or -4 or so. But I am guessing that metrics show Iowa is superior, and that perception says the same.
Edit: yes, the above poster hits it well.
Iowa had two nice early wins, blowing out an NIU team with a good defense (beat BYU 7-6 just two weeks ago) and holding Iowa State to 3 points. Iowa State has taken off since then, BUT they changed QBs and the new guy has made a HUGE difference. Those two wins and the fact the game is at Kinnick probably account for the spread.
Most sports algorithms like to see dominance against bad teams because that's the best indicator of quality of a good team.
We see it work in the NFL and NBA all the time where you can have a team that dominates terrible teams during the regular season but struggles against topflight competition. Or the opposite, a team that struggles to put away bad competition but beats some good teams.
Which is the better indicator of postseason quality of such teams? The ability to dominate bad teams typically offers better predictive value. Why? The team that had consistently good production and ran bad teams off the turf or floor has almost always been the better bet than the team that was inconsistent.
Advanced statistics historically bear that out...
Of course, NU has been one of those rare anomalies for a variety of reasons (smaller classes with possible depth issues as a result, etc.).
That's why algorithms love Iowa. And conversely we are almost always underrated.
We see it work in the NFL and NBA all the time where you can have a team that dominates terrible teams during the regular season but struggles against topflight competition. Or the opposite, a team that struggles to put away bad competition but beats some good teams.
Which is the better indicator of postseason quality of such teams? The ability to dominate bad teams typically offers better predictive value. Why? The team that had consistently good production and ran bad teams off the turf or floor has almost always been the better bet than the team that was inconsistent.
Advanced statistics historically bear that out...
Of course, NU has been one of those rare anomalies for a variety of reasons (smaller classes with possible depth issues as a result, etc.).
That's why algorithms love Iowa. And conversely we are almost always underrated.
This -10 line, if the location was Evanston, would be Iowa -4. If the -4 line doesn't make sense, then the -10 at Kinnick makes no sense, either.
Purdue took advantage of two true freshman CB's who have been forced into action because of injury. Purdue picked on one of them who did not have terrible coverage most of the day, but did make some freshman inexperience mistakes which cost them 3 TD's. On the other hand, they held Rondale Moore to just 34 yards I believe. One of the two freshman CB's has been playing well, the other is showing the inexperience. Iowa's D was better before they were pushed in the lineup. I would expect Thorsen to try and pick on the one corner Saturday.
Vegas nailed it pretty good for the ND game. so give them a little credit, but they were absurdly wrong with their spreads for the Wisky game, the MSU game, the Rutgers game, the Nebraska game and the Michigan game.
They don't seem to have a real sense of what the Cats will do. To be fair, though. Neither do any of us.
They don't seem to have a real sense of what the Cats will do. To be fair, though. Neither do any of us.
Unfortunately we are missing some DBs. Got to get pressure on him. He is not generally the dual threat that causes us the most problems. And he does not have quite the weapons Book had. Good TEs and OL but not so much at WR. I think we match up pretty well on D against them or would with our top DBs. O depends on if CT gets his mojo back
Yes we shut down WIS running game but part of that was them. They only had Taylor run the ball 11 times after he fumbled twice. But IA run game does not have the potency of WIS so we are set up to limit it pretty well. They have good TEs and reasonable other areas but shut down the run and maybe Stanley can beat us but I think it takes more thanTEs
Stanley's had some great games and some bad games this year. He's like any of the QBs that came back this year and have been somewhat inconsistent.
His year has sort of been like CT's; slow start and then was really strong in the middle of the season but hasn't been quite as good lately.
He has thrown an INT in 7 of their 9 games, so there's hope for a takeaway there. You can catch him trying to force throws.
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