Having finished my annual meltdown as the Cats lost to a team they should have dominated and looked terrible doing it, I figured I would focus on the things that were most horrifying and try to figure if they can be fixed this year.
A few things have to be stipulated. The team was not ready to play, nor were they specifically well prepared for SIU. While this pisses me off, it is not cosmic, as football coaches and teams have fallen into thinking a lower regarded team will be easy as long as there has been football. I also want to not pay much attention to the breakdowns in the secondary, as the depth chart was plumbed and previous experience limited. Some of the run defense misfits, I think, can be attributed to this. I also thought the DLine played well enough. The points where O Line failed were largely game prep failures.
So three things really were horrifying to me, all of which have been noted by others, but in a way, are at the crux of the disappointment and anxiety over coaching.
The first is the inability of the linebackers as a unit to recognize and execute their assignments on option based plays. Saturday was a highlight reel of failure to account for tight ends over the middle after committing to a run option, of failing to recognize or of overrunning a gap assignment, and of failing to secure the edge. These problems showed up in the first two games, but it appears the SIU OC actually watched game film of the Cats and exploited the weaknesses mercilessly.
The second was the absolute loss of game presence by Hilinski starting about 20 minutes into the game, and continuing until the last TD drive, where he seemed to regain his composure. His play reminded me of a baseball pitcher who loses the plate, screws up his mechanics and throws about 15 straight balls. He couldn’t throw a decent pass to save his soul, and as his accuracy deteriorated, his concentration on reading the defense disappeared. It is rare to see a QB play that badly.
The third was the loss of concentration on key plays by the running backs. Hull’s fumble and Porter’s spectacular double breakdown on the sack and fumble play were brutal. Porter has been, to my eyes, a little unfocused each of the first three games. Hull may be fatigued or suffering from hero syndrome, but losing the ball at critical points at the end of two otherwise very successful runs is really disconcerting.
The third item is eminently fixable, and I do expect it to be fixed by the PSU game. I also think Porter is the key cog. While he has had numerous breakdowns, he still appears to me to be a stronger downhill runner than Hull. I think using him as such, and having him be the first down back rather than rotating possessions (Hull 2 for every 1 Porter gets or so) would get him back in the game, save Hull a little for second and third downs, and possibly both rest Hull and get Porter’s head back in the game. I hope the coaches recognize this and salvage Porter’s season(and maybe his career as a Wildcat).
Hilinski’s meltdown, to me, was triggered mentally, but was devastating because of his tendency to lapse into really bad mechanics. The mechanics and mental checkout were a brutal feedback loop. Bajakian (and Fitz) have a big evaluation to make. I think when Hilinski is prepared and confident, he gets on top of his game and lessens the number of times he gets out of whack and makes terrible throws (leading to horrendous reads). The coaches need to decide if Saturday was a one off or something they think will recur when the offense falls off game plan and make a decision to either commit to Ryan or to pull him. I hope they decide it was a one off, and that they are right. If they wrongly think it was a one off, the season is going to be a repeat of Saturday at least five or six times, which would be awful. On the other hand, if they commit to Sullivan, I think the QB play the next two weeks is liable to be very shaky, and the rest of the season will largely be a rebuilding project.
Finally, I think the linebacker problem is the biggest. I really don’t think the current crop has the physical chops or the mental understanding to execute their responsibilities, and something needs to change schematically in a hurry to compensate for it. I remember noting before last year that I was not too worried about turnover at LB (incorrectly) because having watched Hank’s defenses, the responsibilities of the individual LB’s were pretty straight forward both physically and from a recognition standpoint. For worse or better, that is not the case in JON’s design to my eyes, and since there is no way to physically transform the players, and since they clearly have not mastered their responsibilities in three games, the only real alternative is to simplify the scheme to make use of them in some constructive way. I do think, assuming the large number of injured DBs are cleared to play soon, transferring more responsibility onto th DBs for run support and coverage of tight ends could paper over the problem, but it will leave the defense very vulnerable to getting beat deep often. The defense this year is not going to really good. It is possible it might be adequate.
Fitz is the boss, and he faces a pretty formidable challenge. He needs to get both coordinators to make hard decisions where the wrong decision will accelerate the spiral the Cats are starting. The next two games will be interesting for showing if they are up to the challenge as a coaching group. While he makes me crazy at times, I would not count out Fitz, and by inference, the Cats, yet this season.
A few things have to be stipulated. The team was not ready to play, nor were they specifically well prepared for SIU. While this pisses me off, it is not cosmic, as football coaches and teams have fallen into thinking a lower regarded team will be easy as long as there has been football. I also want to not pay much attention to the breakdowns in the secondary, as the depth chart was plumbed and previous experience limited. Some of the run defense misfits, I think, can be attributed to this. I also thought the DLine played well enough. The points where O Line failed were largely game prep failures.
So three things really were horrifying to me, all of which have been noted by others, but in a way, are at the crux of the disappointment and anxiety over coaching.
The first is the inability of the linebackers as a unit to recognize and execute their assignments on option based plays. Saturday was a highlight reel of failure to account for tight ends over the middle after committing to a run option, of failing to recognize or of overrunning a gap assignment, and of failing to secure the edge. These problems showed up in the first two games, but it appears the SIU OC actually watched game film of the Cats and exploited the weaknesses mercilessly.
The second was the absolute loss of game presence by Hilinski starting about 20 minutes into the game, and continuing until the last TD drive, where he seemed to regain his composure. His play reminded me of a baseball pitcher who loses the plate, screws up his mechanics and throws about 15 straight balls. He couldn’t throw a decent pass to save his soul, and as his accuracy deteriorated, his concentration on reading the defense disappeared. It is rare to see a QB play that badly.
The third was the loss of concentration on key plays by the running backs. Hull’s fumble and Porter’s spectacular double breakdown on the sack and fumble play were brutal. Porter has been, to my eyes, a little unfocused each of the first three games. Hull may be fatigued or suffering from hero syndrome, but losing the ball at critical points at the end of two otherwise very successful runs is really disconcerting.
The third item is eminently fixable, and I do expect it to be fixed by the PSU game. I also think Porter is the key cog. While he has had numerous breakdowns, he still appears to me to be a stronger downhill runner than Hull. I think using him as such, and having him be the first down back rather than rotating possessions (Hull 2 for every 1 Porter gets or so) would get him back in the game, save Hull a little for second and third downs, and possibly both rest Hull and get Porter’s head back in the game. I hope the coaches recognize this and salvage Porter’s season(and maybe his career as a Wildcat).
Hilinski’s meltdown, to me, was triggered mentally, but was devastating because of his tendency to lapse into really bad mechanics. The mechanics and mental checkout were a brutal feedback loop. Bajakian (and Fitz) have a big evaluation to make. I think when Hilinski is prepared and confident, he gets on top of his game and lessens the number of times he gets out of whack and makes terrible throws (leading to horrendous reads). The coaches need to decide if Saturday was a one off or something they think will recur when the offense falls off game plan and make a decision to either commit to Ryan or to pull him. I hope they decide it was a one off, and that they are right. If they wrongly think it was a one off, the season is going to be a repeat of Saturday at least five or six times, which would be awful. On the other hand, if they commit to Sullivan, I think the QB play the next two weeks is liable to be very shaky, and the rest of the season will largely be a rebuilding project.
Finally, I think the linebacker problem is the biggest. I really don’t think the current crop has the physical chops or the mental understanding to execute their responsibilities, and something needs to change schematically in a hurry to compensate for it. I remember noting before last year that I was not too worried about turnover at LB (incorrectly) because having watched Hank’s defenses, the responsibilities of the individual LB’s were pretty straight forward both physically and from a recognition standpoint. For worse or better, that is not the case in JON’s design to my eyes, and since there is no way to physically transform the players, and since they clearly have not mastered their responsibilities in three games, the only real alternative is to simplify the scheme to make use of them in some constructive way. I do think, assuming the large number of injured DBs are cleared to play soon, transferring more responsibility onto th DBs for run support and coverage of tight ends could paper over the problem, but it will leave the defense very vulnerable to getting beat deep often. The defense this year is not going to really good. It is possible it might be adequate.
Fitz is the boss, and he faces a pretty formidable challenge. He needs to get both coordinators to make hard decisions where the wrong decision will accelerate the spiral the Cats are starting. The next two games will be interesting for showing if they are up to the challenge as a coaching group. While he makes me crazy at times, I would not count out Fitz, and by inference, the Cats, yet this season.
