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Recruiting rankings history for NU players

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mikewebb68

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Oct 24, 2009
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We were talking about recruiting rankings in the Jared Jones thread, and, since I don't know that much about them and how predictive they are (other than some posters here who anectdotally say that they're not good predictors of much of anything) I thought that I would conduct a little exercise that would help me learn about them. I am also sharing with the community here in the event that there is any value from these state or my observations.

Here are the recruiting rankings for each of our players since the inception of the 247 composite ranking in 2003, in order of highest composite ranking to lowest (raw score/star rating in parenthesis, where available). Note that Rivals and ESPN only have a top-100 list, so anyone outside of that is unranked. Also, ESPN appears to have changed their raw scoring system in 2013, lowering scores across the board by about 10 points, so compare accordingly. Also, ESPN did not assign star ratings prior ot 2010 and didn't provide ratings at all prior to 2007. And finally, the 247 Composite would have included Scout separately before 247 acquired Scout, but I don't have the historic Scout rankings to submit separately (wish I did, since 247 apparently didn't rate anyone prior to 2011)

I also added career points per game (PPG) at NU to get an idea of the predictive ability of the rankings. Yes, I know this is not fair to guys like Sanjay, but for the most part it is a decent measure.

247 Composite 247/Scout Rivals ESPN PPG
  1. Robbie Beran 80(.9692/4-star) 50 (96/4-star) N/R(4-star) 100(83/4-star) N/A
  2. Pete Nance 88(.9654/4-star) 134(90/4-star) N/R(4-star) 79(84/4-star) 2.9
  3. Vic Law 89(.9504/4-star) 90(92/4-star) N/R(4-star) 66(84/4-star) 11.5
  4. Aaron Falzon 114(.9303/4-star) 129(90/4-star) N/R(4-star) 75(84/4-star) 6.1
  5. Miller Kopp 116(.9449/4-star) 86(93/4-star) N/R(4-star) N/R(81/4-star) 4.9
  6. Jershon Cobb 135(.9100/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(88/3-star) 8.3
  7. Kale Abraham'n 145(.9087/3-star) 134(89/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(89/3-star) 4.4
  8. Rap Ivanauskas 145(.9032/3-star) 158(89/3-star) N/R(4-star) N/R(79/3-star) 0.0
  9. Nick Freundt 147(.9045/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(87) 1.2
  10. Barrett Benson 151(.8992/3-star) 176(89/3-star) N/R(4-star) N/R(79/3-star) 2.0
  11. Tim Doyle 157(.8556/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) Did Not Exist 8.1
  12. Michael Thps'n 163(.9059/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(91) 13.1
  13. Kevin Coble 172(.8556/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) Did Not exist 14.9
  14. Jared Jones 184(.8977/3-star) 141(90/4-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(78/3-star) N/A
  15. John Shruna 185(.8778/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(82) 15.7
  16. Anthony Gaines 189(.8868/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(80/4-star) 5.5
  17. Mike Capocci 210(.8747/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(81) 2.0
  18. Bryant McIntosh 214(.8639/3-star) 146(89/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(79/3-star) 13.0
  19. Nathan Taphorn 214(.8594/3-star) 191(86/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(75/3-star) 4.0
  20. Jordan Ash 215(.8679/3-star) 246(87/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(78/3-star) 1.2
  21. Drew Crawford 221(.8903/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(86) 13.4
  22. Chier Ajou 223(.8556/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(N/R/2-star) 1.0
  23. Isiah Brown 236(.8628/3-star) 235(87/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(75/3-star) 5.3
  24. Johnnie Vassar 242(.8514/3-star) 240(87/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(70/3-star) 0.8
  25. Sanjay Lumpkin 244(.8444/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(82/2-star) 4.4
  26. Kyle Rowley 257(.8556/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) Not Rated 2.8
  27. Scottie Lindsey 281(.8368/3-star) 321(83/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(70/3-star) 10.1
  28. Alex Marcotulio 287(.8712/3-star) Not Rated N/R(2-star) N/R(87) 5.3
  29. Dererk Pardon 300(.8385/3-star) 305(84/3-star) N/R (3-star) N/R(78/3-star) 10.6
  30. Daniel Buie 307(.8702/3-star) 325(88/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(79/3-star) N/A
  31. Tre Demps 311(.8444/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(90/3-star) 11.5
  32. Alex Olah 317(.8111/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(88/3-star) 9.5
  33. Ryan Greer 341(.8678/3-star) 326(88/3-star) N/R(3-star) Not Rated 1.5
  34. Davide Curletti 344(.6431/3-star) Not Rated N/R(2-star) N/R(78) 3.0
  35. Ryan Young 346(.8660/3-star) 251(88/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(76/3-star) N/A
  36. Gavin Skelly 362(.8304/3-star) 306(83/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(73/3-star) 4.3
  37. Vince Scott 394(.8000/2-star) Not Rated Not Rated Did Not Exist 3.9
  38. Luka Mirkovic 416(.8111/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) Not Rated 6.3
  39. Sterling Williams 432(.7667/2-star) Not Rated Not Rated Did Not Exist 3.5
  40. Dave Sobele'ki 440(.8111/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(85/2-star) 6.6
  41. Mike Turner 622(.7667/2-star) Not Rated Not Rated N/R(88/2-star) 1.9
  42. Jeff Ryan 655(.7667/2-star) Not Rated Not Rated Did Not Exist 3.7
  43. Gary Lee 661(.7667/2-star) Not Rated Not Rated Did Not Exist DNP
  44. Brandon Lee 665(.7667/2-star) Not Rated Not Rated Did Not Exist 1.6

Some observations from someone who knows little about recruiting rankings:

  1. A high recruiting ranking seems to be a mixed predictor of success. Of our top-10 ranked recruits, only two (Jershon Cobb and Vic Law) average over 7 points (though, obviously, 3 players have played less than 2 seasons, so if we reached 3 spots further down, all three of those players averaged more than 7 points--Doyle.Thompson, and Coble--but 5 of 10 would still be a mixed performance)
  2. However, a low recruiting ranking appears to be a much more accurate predictor of success. No one on the bottom-10 averaged more than 7 points per game. Does not bode well for Ryan Young, who is the 10th lowest, but at least he will have the benefit of a decent 247/Scout ranking as well as a redshirt). And none of our 2-star composite players averaged more than 4 pts. per game.
  3. The big time misses from recuiting rankings people appear tom be in the middle, where many of our our best players of the last 15+ years (BMac Crawford, Scottie, DP, Demps) all reside
  4. Our top five players have all come into the fold in the last 5 years, with the top two being '18 (Nance) and '19 (Beran) players; certainly a positive trend
  5. Rivals hates us-- we have not had a single top-100 player in their rankings, compared to 4 at ESPN and 3 at 247/Scout
  6. I have no idea why Tim Doyle shows up in our recruiting rankings, as he was a transfer (St. John's) but he does, so I list him here
Thoughts?
 
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mikewebb68 said:
We were talking about recruiting rankings in the Jared Jones thread, and, since I don't know that much about them and how predictive they are (other than some posters here who anectdotally say that they're not good predictors of much of anything) I thought that I would conduct a little exercise that would help me learn about them. I am also sharing with the community here in the event that there is any value from these state or my observations.

Here are the recruiting rankings for each of our players since the inception of the 247 composite ranking in 2003, in order of highest composite ranking to lowest (raw score/star rating in parenthesis, where available). Note that Rivals and ESPN only have a top-100 list, so anyone outside of that is unranked. Also, ESPN appears to have changed their raw scoring system in 2013, lowering scores across the board by about 10 points, so compare accordingly. Also, ESPN did not assign star ratings prior ot 2010 and didn't provide ratings at all prior to 2007. And finally, the 247 Composite would have included Scout separately before 247 acquired Scout, but I don't have the historic Scout rankings to submit separately (wish I did, since 247 apparently didn't rate anyone prior to 2011)

I also added career points per game (PPG) at NU to get an idea of the predictive ability of the rankings. Yes, I know this is not fair to guys like Sanjay, but for the most part it is a decent measure.

247 Composite 247/Scout Rivals ESPN PPG
  1. Robbie Beran 80(.9692/4-star) 50 (96/4-star) N/R(4-star) 100(83/4-star) N/A
  2. Pete Nance 88(.9654/4-star) 134(90/4-star) N/R(4-star) 79(84/4-star) 2.9
  3. Vic Law 89(.9504/4-star) 90(92/4-star) N/R(4-star) 66(84/4-star) 11.5
  4. Aaron Falzon 114(.9303/4-star) 129(90/4-star) N/R(4-star) 75(84/4-star) 6.1
  5. Miller Kopp 116(.9449/4-star) 86(93/4-star) N/R(4-star) N/R(81/4-star) 4.9
  6. Jershon Cobb 135(.9100/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(88/3-star) 8.3
  7. Kale Abraham'n 145(.9087/3-star) 134(89/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(89/3-star) 4.4
  8. Rap Ivanauskas 145(.9032/3-star) 158(89/3-star) N/R(4-star) N/R(79/3-star) 0.0
  9. Nick Freundt 147(.9045/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(87) 1.2
  10. Barrett Benson 151(.8992/3-star) 176(89/3-star) N/R(4-star) N/R(79/3-star) 2.0
  11. Tim Doyle 157(.8556/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) Did Not Exist 8.1
  12. Michael Thps'n 163(.9059/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(91) 13.1
  13. Kevin Coble 172(.8556/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) Did Not exist 14.9
  14. Jared Jones 184(.8977/3-star) 141(90/4-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(78/3-star) N/A
  15. John Shruna 185(.8778/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(82) 15.7
  16. Anthony Gaines 189(.8868/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(80/4-star) 5.5
  17. Mike Capocci 210(.8747/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(81) 2.0
  18. Bryant McIntosh 214(.8639/3-star) 146(89/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(79/3-star) 13.0
  19. Nathan Taphorn 214(.8594/3-star) 191(86/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(75/3-star) 4.0
  20. Jordan Ash 215(.8679/3-star) 246(87/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(78/3-star) 1.2
  21. Drew Crawford 221(.8903/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(86) 13.4
  22. Chier Ajou 223(.8556/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(N/R/2-star) 1.0
  23. Isiah Brown 236(.8628/3-star) 235(87/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(75/3-star) 5.3
  24. Johnnie Vassar 242(.8514/3-star) 240(87/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(70/3-star) 0.8
  25. Sanjay Lumpkin 244(.8444/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(82/2-star) 4.4
  26. Kyle Rowley 257(.8556/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) Not Rated 2.8
  27. Scottie Lindsey 281(.8368/3-star) 321(83/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(70/3-star) 10.1
  28. Alex Marcotulio 287(.8712/3-star) Not Rated N/R(2-star) N/R(87) 5.3
  29. Dererk Pardon 300(.8385/3-star) 305(84/3-star) N/R (3-star) N/R(78/3-star) 10.6
  30. Daniel Buie 307(.8702/3-star) 325(88/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(79/3-star) N/A
  31. Tre Demps 311(.8444/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(90/3-star) 11.5
  32. Alex Olah 317(.8111/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(88/3-star) 9.5
  33. Ryan Greer 341(.8678/3-star) 326(88/3-star) N/R(3-star) Not Rated 1.5
  34. Davide Curletti 344(.6431/3-star) Not Rated N/R(2-star) N/R(78) 3.0
  35. Ryan Young 346(.8660/3-star) 251(88/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(76/3-star) N/A
  36. Gavin Skelly 362(.8304/3-star) 306(83/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(73/3-star) 4.3
  37. Vince Scott 394(.8000/2-star) Not Rated Not Rated Did Not Exist 3.9
  38. Luka Mirkovic 416(.8111/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) Not Rated 6.3
  39. Sterling Williams 432(.7667/2-star) Not Rated Not Rated Did Not Exist 3.5
  40. Dave Sobele'ki 440(.8111/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(85/2-star) 6.6
  41. Mike Turner 622(.7667/2-star) Not Rated Not Rated N/R(88/2-star) 1.9
  42. Jeff Ryan 655(.7667/2-star) Not Rated Not Rated Did Not Exist 3.7
  43. Gary Lee 661(.7667/2-star) Not Rated Not Rated Did Not Exist DNP
  44. Brandon Lee 665(.7667/2-star) Not Rated Not Rated Did Not Exist 1.6

Some observations from someone who knows little about recruiting rankings:

  1. A high recruiting ranking seems to be a mixed predictor of success. Of our top-10 ranked recruits, only two (Jershon Cobb and Vic Law) average over 7 points (though, obviously, 3 players have played less than 2 seasons, so if we reached 3 spots further down, all three of those players averaged more than 7 points--Doyle.Thompson, and Coble--but 5 of 10 would still be a mixed performance)
  2. However, a low recruiting ranking appears to be a much more accurate predictor of success. No one on the bottom-10 averaged more than 7 points per game. Does not bode well for Ryan Young, who is the 10th lowest, but at least he will have the benefit of a decent 247/Scout ranking as well as a redshirt). And none of our 2-star composite player averaged more than 4 pts. per game.
  3. The big time missed from recuiting rankings people appear tom be in the middle, where many of our our best players of the last 15+ years (BMac Crawford, Scottie, DP, Demps) all reside
  4. Our top five players have all come into the fold in the last 5 years, with the top two being '18 (Nance) and '19 (Beran) players; certainly a positive trend
  5. Rivals hates us-- we have not had a single top-100 player in their rankings, compared to 4 at ESPN and 3 at 247/Scout
  6. I have no idea why Tim Doyle shows up in our recruiting rankings, as he was a transfer (St. John's) but he does, so I list him here
Thoughts?
Click to expand...
It’s a crap shoot.
 
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a couple things...different eras, different ranking systems....some of us go back a ways and the rankings were done by Taylor Bell or Street and Smith.....Rivals and Scout didn't exist. So oftentimes we're having a conversation that is apples to oranges.

the current systems seem to average the assessments of several people....it's not clear that each and every evaluator is expert...there does seem to be a bit of a herd mentality....when a couple change a ranking the others rush to do the same....sometimes that's driven by something real, and sometimes just perception

how would five thirty eight rank players? They would certainly take the star ratings of the national sites like Rivals, ESPN and Scout. I think they would also make an effort to find local talent evaluators. I'm sure they would factor in both offers and teams looking at the players. They might also credit all state-type achievements prior to senior year.

It's a guess, but the five thirty eight approach would push guys like Happ and Bmac up to four star territory.

I think the ratings are useful, though, if nothing more than a barometer on how a program is doing with recruiting.
 
mikewebb68 said:
We were talking about recruiting rankings in the Jared Jones thread, and, since I don't know that much about them and how predictive they are (other than some posters here who anectdotally say that they're not good predictors of much of anything) I thought that I would conduct a little exercise that would help me learn about them. I am also sharing with the community here in the event that there is any value from these state or my observations.

Here are the recruiting rankings for each of our players since the inception of the 247 composite ranking in 2003, in order of highest composite ranking to lowest (raw score/star rating in parenthesis, where available). Note that Rivals and ESPN only have a top-100 list, so anyone outside of that is unranked. Also, ESPN appears to have changed their raw scoring system in 2013, lowering scores across the board by about 10 points, so compare accordingly. Also, ESPN did not assign star ratings prior ot 2010 and didn't provide ratings at all prior to 2007. And finally, the 247 Composite would have included Scout separately before 247 acquired Scout, but I don't have the historic Scout rankings to submit separately (wish I did, since 247 apparently didn't rate anyone prior to 2011)

I also added career points per game (PPG) at NU to get an idea of the predictive ability of the rankings. Yes, I know this is not fair to guys like Sanjay, but for the most part it is a decent measure.

247 Composite 247/Scout Rivals ESPN PPG
  1. Robbie Beran 80(.9692/4-star) 50 (96/4-star) N/R(4-star) 100(83/4-star) N/A
  2. Pete Nance 88(.9654/4-star) 134(90/4-star) N/R(4-star) 79(84/4-star) 2.9
  3. Vic Law 89(.9504/4-star) 90(92/4-star) N/R(4-star) 66(84/4-star) 11.5
  4. Aaron Falzon 114(.9303/4-star) 129(90/4-star) N/R(4-star) 75(84/4-star) 6.1
  5. Miller Kopp 116(.9449/4-star) 86(93/4-star) N/R(4-star) N/R(81/4-star) 4.9
  6. Jershon Cobb 135(.9100/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(88/3-star) 8.3
  7. Kale Abraham'n 145(.9087/3-star) 134(89/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(89/3-star) 4.4
  8. Rap Ivanauskas 145(.9032/3-star) 158(89/3-star) N/R(4-star) N/R(79/3-star) 0.0
  9. Nick Freundt 147(.9045/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(87) 1.2
  10. Barrett Benson 151(.8992/3-star) 176(89/3-star) N/R(4-star) N/R(79/3-star) 2.0
  11. Tim Doyle 157(.8556/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) Did Not Exist 8.1
  12. Michael Thps'n 163(.9059/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(91) 13.1
  13. Kevin Coble 172(.8556/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) Did Not exist 14.9
  14. Jared Jones 184(.8977/3-star) 141(90/4-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(78/3-star) N/A
  15. John Shruna 185(.8778/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(82) 15.7
  16. Anthony Gaines 189(.8868/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(80/4-star) 5.5
  17. Mike Capocci 210(.8747/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(81) 2.0
  18. Bryant McIntosh 214(.8639/3-star) 146(89/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(79/3-star) 13.0
  19. Nathan Taphorn 214(.8594/3-star) 191(86/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(75/3-star) 4.0
  20. Jordan Ash 215(.8679/3-star) 246(87/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(78/3-star) 1.2
  21. Drew Crawford 221(.8903/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(86) 13.4
  22. Chier Ajou 223(.8556/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(N/R/2-star) 1.0
  23. Isiah Brown 236(.8628/3-star) 235(87/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(75/3-star) 5.3
  24. Johnnie Vassar 242(.8514/3-star) 240(87/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(70/3-star) 0.8
  25. Sanjay Lumpkin 244(.8444/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(82/2-star) 4.4
  26. Kyle Rowley 257(.8556/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) Not Rated 2.8
  27. Scottie Lindsey 281(.8368/3-star) 321(83/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(70/3-star) 10.1
  28. Alex Marcotulio 287(.8712/3-star) Not Rated N/R(2-star) N/R(87) 5.3
  29. Dererk Pardon 300(.8385/3-star) 305(84/3-star) N/R (3-star) N/R(78/3-star) 10.6
  30. Daniel Buie 307(.8702/3-star) 325(88/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(79/3-star) N/A
  31. Tre Demps 311(.8444/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(90/3-star) 11.5
  32. Alex Olah 317(.8111/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(88/3-star) 9.5
  33. Ryan Greer 341(.8678/3-star) 326(88/3-star) N/R(3-star) Not Rated 1.5
  34. Davide Curletti 344(.6431/3-star) Not Rated N/R(2-star) N/R(78) 3.0
  35. Ryan Young 346(.8660/3-star) 251(88/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(76/3-star) N/A
  36. Gavin Skelly 362(.8304/3-star) 306(83/3-star) N/R(3-star) N/R(73/3-star) 4.3
  37. Vince Scott 394(.8000/2-star) Not Rated Not Rated Did Not Exist 3.9
  38. Luka Mirkovic 416(.8111/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) Not Rated 6.3
  39. Sterling Williams 432(.7667/2-star) Not Rated Not Rated Did Not Exist 3.5
  40. Dave Sobele'ki 440(.8111/3-star) Not Rated N/R(3-star) N/R(85/2-star) 6.6
  41. Mike Turner 622(.7667/2-star) Not Rated Not Rated N/R(88/2-star) 1.9
  42. Jeff Ryan 655(.7667/2-star) Not Rated Not Rated Did Not Exist 3.7
  43. Gary Lee 661(.7667/2-star) Not Rated Not Rated Did Not Exist DNP
  44. Brandon Lee 665(.7667/2-star) Not Rated Not Rated Did Not Exist 1.6

Some observations from someone who knows little about recruiting rankings:

  1. A high recruiting ranking seems to be a mixed predictor of success. Of our top-10 ranked recruits, only two (Jershon Cobb and Vic Law) average over 7 points (though, obviously, 3 players have played less than 2 seasons, so if we reached 3 spots further down, all three of those players averaged more than 7 points--Doyle.Thompson, and Coble--but 5 of 10 would still be a mixed performance)
  2. However, a low recruiting ranking appears to be a much more accurate predictor of success. No one on the bottom-10 averaged more than 7 points per game. Does not bode well for Ryan Young, who is the 10th lowest, but at least he will have the benefit of a decent 247/Scout ranking as well as a redshirt). And none of our 2-star composite players averaged more than 4 pts. per game.
  3. The big time misses from recuiting rankings people appear tom be in the middle, where many of our our best players of the last 15+ years (BMac Crawford, Scottie, DP, Demps) all reside
  4. Our top five players have all come into the fold in the last 5 years, with the top two being '18 (Nance) and '19 (Beran) players; certainly a positive trend
  5. Rivals hates us-- we have not had a single top-100 player in their rankings, compared to 4 at ESPN and 3 at 247/Scout
  6. I have no idea why Tim Doyle shows up in our recruiting rankings, as he was a transfer (St. John's) but he does, so I list him here
Thoughts?
Click to expand...

I think it would be interesting to compare this same approach with a school from the other extreme like MSU, Duke, etc. And then see how the rankings related to production.

Maybe the same. If better, then it suggests either a problem identifying talent or developing it. But I don’t know. Mike, if this perks your curiousity, it could be interesting!
 
That list gave me a headache - my phone is not conducive to reading that, so I gave up and just looked at numbers and names.

I think it’s a crapshoot as already said. Seems like too many uncontrollsble variables leads to unstable and unreliable predictions about future performance. Do they have anything like a college combine? We could use better numbers on speed, quickness, height, weight, and standing vertical - and maybe vision tests ;-

One thing that occurred to me, probably not relevant, is that I liked Ryan’s and Capocci’s games and felt they were completely wasted in Carmody’s offense. I hope they had a good time and are enjoying themselves post college.
 
IGNORE said:
I think it would be interesting to compare this same approach with a school from the other extreme like MSU, Duke, etc. And then see how the rankings related to production.

Maybe the same. If better, then it suggests either a problem identifying talent or developing it. But I don’t know. Mike, if this perks your curiousity, it could be interesting!
Click to expand...

Interesting idea. I might try this out for MSU (Duke would be a bit incomparable to anyone due to all the one and dones-- a guy who stayed might have a better scoring average than a guy who left after a year, for example).
 
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EagerFan said:
That list gave me a headache - my phone is not conducive to reading that, so I gave up and just looked at numbers and names.

I think it’s a crapshoot as already said. Seems like too many uncontrollsble variables leads to unstable and unreliable predictions about future performance. Do they have anything like a college combine? We could use better numbers on speed, quickness, height, weight, and standing vertical - and maybe vision tests ;-

One thing that occurred to me, probably not relevant, is that I liked Ryan’s and Capocci’s games and felt they were completely wasted in Carmody’s offense. I hope they had a good time and are enjoying themselves post college.
Click to expand...

They have camps, but nothing like combine that I am aware. Capocci was actually Carmody's 8th-highest recruit (just below John Shurna!), so you might be onto something there. I was shocked that Ryan was barely noticed by the recruiting services; actually liked him a lot as a player from Day 1 and think he would have been even better had he remained healthy.
 
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They were talented players, but they were drive penetration guys, not 3 point specialists, and spent a lot of time on the bench where they might have played into starters minutes over their careers had they been in a different offense.

I think that’s part of the challenge with the generic rankings.
 
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OK Bob had a good suggestion to try this with Michigan State players as well, so here goes...adding class to the other number this time since people might be less familiar with these players. Also just used the 247 composite ranking (which blends the rankings from all major services) this time since the individual site rankings did not tell us much last time and it makes this easier on the eyes...

Name Class 247 Composite, Points Per Game at MSU

  1. Shannon Brown '03: 4 (.9988/5-star), 12.2 (three and done)
  2. Jaren Jackson '17: 8 (.9977/5-star), 10.9 (one and done)
  3. Miles Bridges '16: 12 (.9962/5-star), 17 (two and done)
  4. Delvon Roe '08: 15 (.9940/5-star), 6.1
  5. Branden Dawson '11:16 (.9931/5-star), 10.1
  6. Josh Langford '16: 19 (.9923/5-star), 10.2
  7. Gary Harris '12: 19 (.9928/5-star), 14.9 (two and done)
  8. Adriean Payne '10:22 (.9911/5-star), 8.9
  9. Deyonta Davis '15: 26 (.9891/4-star), 7.5 (one and done)
  10. Marquise Gray '04: 26 (.9886/4-star), 4.4
  11. Cassius Winston '16 31 (.9884/4-star), 12.9
  12. Kalin Lucas '07: 31 (..9866/4-star), 14.2
  13. Rocket Watts '19: 32 (.9873/4-star) N/A
  14. Raymar Morgan '06: 34 (.9869/4-star), 11.8
  15. Keith Appling '10: 37 (.9863/4-star), 10.6
  16. Nick Ward '16: 40 (.9832/4-star), 13.2
  17. Durrell Summers '07: 40 (.9850/4-star), 9.1
  18. Chris Allen '07: 45 (.9836/4-star), 7.7 (three years, transferred to Iowa St.)
  19. Tom Herzog '06: 47 (.9797/4-star), 1.0 (three years transferred to UCF)
  20. Drew Neitzel '04: 48 (..9799/4-star) 11.1
  21. Malik Hall ;19: 55 (.9777/4-star), N/A
  22. Drew Naymick '03" 63 (.9723/4-star), 2.7
  23. Marcus Bingham '18: 66 (.9760/4-star),1.0
  24. Draymond Green '08: 69 (.9685/4-star), 10.5
  25. Matt Mcquaid '15: 71 (.9718/4-star), 6.2
  26. Derrick Nix '09: 76 (.9704/4-star), 5.9
  27. Korrie Lucious '08: 78 (.9658/4-star), 4.8 (three years, transferred to Iowa St.)
  28. Garrick Sherman '09: 80 (.9688/4-star), 2.5 (two years, transferred to NDame)
  29. Isaiah Dahlman '06: 87 (.9675/4-star), 1.9
  30. Matt Costello '12: 89 (.9659/4-star), 6.0
  31. Kenny Kaminski '12: 95 (.9626/4-star), 4.9 (one year, transferred to Ohio)
  32. Foster Loyer '18: 96 (.9634/4-star), 1.6
  33. Russell Byrd '10: 96 (.9417/4-star), 1.4
  34. Gabe Brown '18: 101 (.9597/4-star), 2.3
  35. Tum Tum Nairn '14: 103 (.9380/4-star), 2.5
  36. Xavier Tillman '17: 112 (.9354/4-star), 6.6
  37. Denzel Valentine '12: 112 (.9329/4-star), 11.4
  38. Travis Walton '05: 112 (.9538/4-star), 4.2
  39. Maurice Joseph '05: 114 (.9530/4-star)3.8 (two years, transferred to Vermont)
  40. Dwaun Anderson '11: 119 (.9196/3-star),0.0(never played,transfered to Wagner)
  41. Goran Suton '04: 119 (.9510/4-star), 9.1
  42. Brandan Kearney '11: 131 (.9083/3-star),1.5 (two years, transferred to Ariz. St.)
  43. Gavin Schilling '13: 134 (.9039/3-star), 3.3
  44. Aaron Henry '18: 141 (.9332/3-star),, 5.9
  45. Alex Gauna '10: 148 (..9019/3-star), 1.5
  46. Javon Bess '14: 150 (.8999/3-star), 2.9 (two years, transferred to St. Louis)
  47. Thomas Kithier '18: 162 (.9213/3-star), 1.6
  48. Kyle Ahrens '15: 166 (.8943/3-star), 2.9
  49. Marvin Clark '14: 178 (.8775/3-star), 4.2 (two years, transferred to St. John's)
  50. Travis Trice '11: 207 (.8731/3-star), 8.5
  51. Idonh Ibok '04: 245 (.8444/3-star), 0.9
  52. Alvin Ellis, '13: 317(.8207/3-star), 3.2
  53. Austin Thornton '07: 323 (.8556/3-star), 2.5
  54. Julius Marble, '19 334 (88/3-star)*, N/A
  55. Dion Sims '09: 353 (.8556/3-star), 0.0 (played mostly football)
* recruit not yet ranked by anyone but 247

Observations:

1) The gap between our recruiting and a top-tier program is enormous. We've never had a 5-star recruit since the 247 composite began; MSU has had 8. Our top-ranked recruit (Robbie Beran) would rank in a tie for 28th (!!!) on MSU's list. MSU has had 32 top-100 recruits; we've had three! (albeit all of them in the last 5 years, a sign of a positive trend) And we've had 16 players ranked #300 or lower; MSU had just 4 (one whose entire rankings are not in yet, and another who was dual recruited for football).
2) Unlike for us, a high recruiting ranking was a solid predictor of success, presumably due to the fact that the ranking, were well, so much higher. Of MSU's top-10 recruits, only two averaged less than 7 points per game; the oft-injured Delvon Roe and Marquis Gray.
3) Just like us, however, a low recruiting ranking was a solid predictor of success, or lack thereof. Of MSU's bottom-10 recruits, only one, Travis Trice, averaged more than 4.2 points per game.
4) Also unlike us, there are few "diamonds in the rough" in the middle of the rankings at MSU. Most of MSU's best players during this period were top-tier recruits, with only Denzel Valentine averaging double figures as a recruit ranked outside the top-100 (and he would have been our 6th best recruit if he was on our list, so not much of a "rough: in that diamond!
 
It would seem that Izzo does a better job of either identifying the top talent that will truly transition well into the college game or does better at developing his players.

That has been the problem too often w CCC so far. Either the top talent he lands are guys that aren’t college Power 5 talent, or he is not coaching up these guys when they get here.

His run of four star failure is turning me to agree w Glades that stars are worthless. But they aren’t. They simply are not the end all. Star ratings are a good starting point from which a good coach identifies the qualities that indicate true high potential in the B1G and then brings them into a program that taps into that potential.
 
IGNORE said:
It would seem that Izzo does a better job of either identifying the top talent that will truly transition well into the college game or does better at developing his players.

That has been the problem too often w CCC so far. Either the top talent he lands are guys that aren’t college Power 5 talent, or he is not coaching up these guys when they get here.

His run of four star failure is turning me to agree w Glades that stars are worthless. But they aren’t. They simply are not the end all. Star ratings are a good starting point from which a good coach identifies the qualities that indicate true high potential in the B1G and then brings them into a program that taps into that potential.
Click to expand...
Actually, a strong atmrguement can be made from the data that Izzo does little in the way of talent development, as is evidenced by the lack of players performing abkve their recruiting rankings (in stark contrast to us, where we have had many players perform above their rankings). But that elememt is not key to Izzo's success, since he recruits so well he doesn't need to worry about develipment...Doubt with our academic restrjctikns that we would ever be able to recruit at this level, though, though CC has clearly recruited quite well...
 
Did something similar (abbreviated) in a diff. thread some time ago; in addition to PPG, have to take into account efficiency.

Also, probably would separate out a player's last season (or last 2 seasons), as some players need more development time than others, so stats from their first 2 seasons can really impact their overall stats - which can be misleading as to what type of players they were towards the 2nd half of their career.

But simply going by career PPG, the best scorers have been...

Shurna 15.7 (15)
Coble 14.9 (13)
Crawford 13.4 (21)
Juice 13.1 (12)
BMac 13.0 (18)
Vic Law 11.5 (3)
Tre Demps 11.5 (31)
Pardon 10.6 (29)
Lindsey 10.1 (27)
Olah 9.5 (32)
Cobb 8.3 (6) (likely would be higher up on the list if had been healthier)

Others like VV and TJ Parker would be on the list if 247 had rankings going back that far.

Bad news - out of the top 10 recruits, only Law and Cobb had pretty good careers as scorers.

The good news - 3 of the 10 have plenty of time to make the list of top scorers.
 
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This composite is garbage. Cobb was in multiple, final top 100 lists. Whether it was the two or three that go into this computation, I cannot say. Both Crawford and Rowley were rated higher on several other lists. Why these lists are prioritized over Athlon's or Sporting News or any of the others is something someone else will have to explain. I recognize the scouts in some of these other places better than the ones at 247 and the other.
 
Thanks for showing your work, Mikewebb. The effort is appreciated.

Sure, there's a level of subjectivity to the ratings. I'm sure the MSU ratings increase the moment a kid commits to that school.

But still, how can you not be blown away by the overall difference in the general recruiting rankings? Any of MSU's top 45 recruits would be a top 10 at NU.

And of course there are exceptions all over the place. It's not all about the ratings. I think no one outside the yearly top 50 is anywhere close to an automatic.

There's obviously nothing solid about Collins' results so far. But I'll take my chances with more players in that .900+ category, and pray McIntosh, Pardon and Gaines in three of the five classes weren't flukes.
 
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Sec.112 said:
Thanks for showing your work, Mikewebb. The effort is appreciated.

Sure, there's a level of subjectivity to the ratings. I'm sure the MSU ratings increase the moment a kid commits to that school.

But still, how can you not be blown away by the overall difference in the general recruiting rankings? Any of MSU's top 45 recruits would be a top 10 at NU.

And of course there are exceptions all over the place. It's not all about the ratings. I think no one outside the yearly top 50 is anywhere close to an automatic.

There's obviously nothing solid about Collins' results so far. But I'll take my chances with more players in that .900+ category, and pray McIntosh, Pardon and Gaines in three of the five classes weren't flukes.
Click to expand...

Agreed, but to put as much hype and so much stock in these ratings is silly. Were most of these same scouts ranking recruits now the same guys ranking recruits five, ten years ago? Think about that for a second if that is not the case. That's one of the reasons in days of old, I put more stock in Bob Gibbons and one or two others. I could look back ten years and see which guys they ranked highly and look at their track records. Now, I see new names pop in and out of these services. Why would anyone put a lot of stock in what they say? In that situation, I'd prefer to look at the recruiting lists for these players. If heavyweights are after a particular recruit, that's a better indicator of his talent than some interchangeable scouts who may or may not have any expertise on this game.
 
cometclear said:
Agreed, but to put as much hype and so much stock in these ratings is silly ...
Click to expand...

I couldn't agree more - especially with ratings from both Rivals and 247.

But I'd still argue it's a - can we call it - reasonable measure for each player, especially for amateurs like us who can't follow this stuff closely. It's not the gospel by any means.

However, the overall difference in comparing 50 players between two programs is telling.
 
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