I'm with ya on remaining calm. I was expecting 2-3 when we started B1G play, so we were a 30 foot prayer away from that. But, yes, 1-4 reduces the margin for error. kenpom rated the first 5 games of the schedule the toughest Conf SOS.
The next five games are maybe not as tough, but I wouldn't say its a reprieve:
- Home vs. Turtles. Testudo has been meh on the road, though 2 of those losses are on the vaunted west coast road trip.
- @ Michigan. Wolverines go to Williams Arena on Thursday, so who knows if the Gophs can take some bite outta them before we get them at Crisler. Maybe they look past us because Purdue looms on the schedule, but let's be real, Dusty May is gonna want revenge. This'll be rough.
- Home vs. Hoosiers. IU is 4-2, but those wins were against Minny, Rutgers, PSU and USC. Meanwhile they got torched on the road by Nebby and Iowa. If they are true to form, then this should be a Cats win at Welsh-Ryan, as the supertalented Hoosiers continue to be an enigma under Woodson.
- @Illinois. The return date at State Farm Center. Hoo boy, Illinois will be out for blood as kenpom predicts a 21 point ass-kicking.
- Rutgers. They just grimy-ed out a game against a reeling UCLA at Jersey Mike's tonight, but they remain offensively challenged. Plus, they ain't great on the road with double digit losses @ Indiana and Ohio State
If Brooks remains a high volume shooter, then the 'Cats can't afford nights where he's putting up 20%+ of the team's shots, but his Offensive Rating is 52 (MSU), 62 (Purdue). He had a 66 against Illinois, but the 'Cats played tremendous defense in only giving up 0.88 PPP. My hope that this is the floor, and he will get more efficient and as a result, the offense will follow. What would help is that if he could get to the FT line - through 5 B1G games he's gotten to the line 15 times, and on pace for 60 over 20 games . Last year he had 82 FTA over 20 games. However, this year he's got career highs in %Poss (28.1) and %Shots (27.7). Per Torvik, he's 33/63 shots "at the rim" through 5 B1G games, and through 20 games last year he was 66/124. So he's attacking the paint - he's just not getting rewarded for it.
Also, NU is 4th best in the league with ball security, only giving it up 16.2% of the time, and that was after facing league best ballhawks PSU (forced 21.3%), 3rd best Purdue (20.0) and 5th best Iowa (19.3) and 8th best MSU (17.7). Maryland are handsy, as they are 2nd best in B1G/20.0, but the remainder of opponents aren't as keen to steal: Indiana is 14th/16.0, Rutgers is 16th/14.1, Illinois is 17th/14.0, and Michigan is last/12.3. So from that perspective, we should be under slightly less duress on offense.
Conversely, NU has forced TOs on their opponents 17.6% of the time (10th) - Michigan gives it up 19.5% (17th) and Rutgers fumbles it away 17.7% (13th), so perhaps there's some easier transition buckets to be had in those games.
So, there are some edges to work in the next five games. If we can scratch out 3-2 and get to 4-6 at the break (and of course stay healthy), then there's a fighting chance for .500.
