You guys are using a bit of Pretzel Logic, although I agree that Bajakian looked better on paper than what we got.
Fitzgerald hired O'Neil. Bad hire. His continued failure was not "unlucky."
Fitzgerald hired Braun. Good hire. His continued success was not "lucky."
When O'Neil was on his way out, I opined "Forget about the pros or Power 5 coaches, we need to look at winning programs in FCS and find a young, successful defensive coordinator with ties to the Midwest." Just a general suggestion to bring in some creativity. Put pressure on the quarterback.
Fitzgerald went into the FCS ranks, looked at one of the dominant programs, hired their young DC and (no surprise) it worked out well. (well, not for Fitz)
I agree that it was lucky (especially for Schill) that Braun grew into the head coaching role as quickly as he did, although there were plenty of missteps early on. If Mr Magoo is running the university we'll need plenty of luck down the road.
Had also opined at the time that Fitz needed to stop hiring retreads/buddies and change his philosophy by hiring a young, successful HC or coordinator from the lower ranks.
Considering the success of coaches like DeBoer (and his long time OC, Grubb, who is now coaching in the NFL), Lance Leipold, Chris Klieman, Dave Clawson, etc - these types of hires were not "lucky."
Think Cignetti will bring IU football back to respectability.
Who knows if it was entirely Fitz, I don't know, but the HC is directly responsible for his coordinator and assistant coaching hires. He also is directly responsible for the systems he wants in place. I can understand his philosophy in terms of ball control as the 'Cats were outgunned in terms of talent but after Coach Walker passed I was hoping that Fitz would keep his offense. The game has changed, and the ball control stuff of 60's and 70's has gone the way of the dinosaur. It also won't bring in top talent either in terms of skilled players. I liked Fitz, but he put his career on coast mode after 2018, and it caught up with him rather quickly. It doesn't matter really anymore. Braun is exactly what the program needed, a new vision, and a new energy that wants to win and get the program to the next level. Fitz took the money after 2018 and just coasted on his past laurels. In the end he proved not to be the coach everyone thought he was.
Coach Walk went to the spread after realizing that the program didn't have the talent to compete via "old school" B1G football.
If you can't match them in talent, then have to use superior schemes/playcalling to help bridge that gap.
Look at what happened to the Eagles O and the play of Hurts last season.
Had the same talent as before (with Hurts being more experienced) but the Eagles O went backwards due to predictable, uninspired playcalling (and that's despite having one of the
best O-lines in the league).
In all fairness to Fitz, he probably tried to model his philosophy based on the successful 1995-6 seasons of a ball control offense and hard nosed defense. Walker got off the pickle boat and quickly realized during the 1999 season how difficult that was to do at NU, and to his credit, radically changed his approach in 2000. Fitz tried to resurrect the smash mouth brand but didn't have the horses for sustainable success.
Fitz never had the "horses" since he never could get the O-line right.
A better coach would (eventually) get the O-line right or decide to change schemes/playcalling to better suit the personnel ( a better coach also would not take half a season of seeing failure to convert on 3rd/4th and short when handing off deep in the backfield before changing things; this is also on McC since any OC worth his salt would have convinced his boss to change tack earlier).
Case in point, the Rams had to basically rebuild their O-line, and they did so via the draft (not particularly high picks) and FA.
The change in personnel did improve things a little, but it still wasn't where they needed it to be, that is, until they
changed the blocking scheme to what better suited the guys up front and away they went.
Anyhow, liked the Braun hire when it was first reported and liked Braun since his very first press conference (where he was the "sacrificial lamb" since you know who was in hiding).
Like him even more now (not to mention his wife).
Makes me dislike you know who even more for having zero fortitude - where it took a young HC to get the ball rolling...