I see it as 7 more victories (regular season) to get to the dance. BIG is weaker this year so... Gets us to 20 wins and a winning BIG record. 6 might get it done but would likely require a game or to in BTT
So is it too early to talk about magic number?
- Thread starter hdhntr1
- Start date
20-11, 11-9 *should* be enough, especially if NU wins at least one in the BTT. I feel like 21 is pretty safe, but it's so early I don't know what the bubble looks like yet.
Most bracketologists have NU around a 10th seed, but people use different methodologies (is that based on current resume? future projections? anticipating a soft bubble?).
Seems like 19/20 wins will be bubble territory, with 20 getting NU barely in and 19 getting NU barely out, but a lot can happen on the road to 19/20 wins. So I'd say the magic number is eight to be sure.
I love that we can have this conversation now, even if some will think we're jinxing it.
Most bracketologists have NU around a 10th seed, but people use different methodologies (is that based on current resume? future projections? anticipating a soft bubble?).
Seems like 19/20 wins will be bubble territory, with 20 getting NU barely in and 19 getting NU barely out, but a lot can happen on the road to 19/20 wins. So I'd say the magic number is eight to be sure.
I love that we can have this conversation now, even if some will think we're jinxing it.
On Torvik's site, he has a number of tools that look at tourney probabilities.
In one of them, with our projected resume of 20-11, 11-9 assuming losses @Neb, against Illinois, @Purdue and @MSU and a win over OSU at home, our closest comparisons show us as a 10-11 seed, and Torvik shows us in the "last four byes" as an 11 seed.
In another, looking at our current efficiency and tempo numbers, our closest comps did not make the tourney at all. The top two comps are NU 2018 and NU 2009, followed by Houston 2017 (NIT 2-seed) and Texas Tech 2017 (no postseason)
In a third tool, where you can add in conference tournament sims, an opening loss puts us out of the tourney, going 1-1 keeps us at an 11-seed, and two wins gets us up to a 9-seed.
Lastly, there's also a "rooting guide" to theoretically show which games have the most impact on our chances to make the tourney, but is more just for fun.
In one of them, with our projected resume of 20-11, 11-9 assuming losses @Neb, against Illinois, @Purdue and @MSU and a win over OSU at home, our closest comparisons show us as a 10-11 seed, and Torvik shows us in the "last four byes" as an 11 seed.
In another, looking at our current efficiency and tempo numbers, our closest comps did not make the tourney at all. The top two comps are NU 2018 and NU 2009, followed by Houston 2017 (NIT 2-seed) and Texas Tech 2017 (no postseason)
In a third tool, where you can add in conference tournament sims, an opening loss puts us out of the tourney, going 1-1 keeps us at an 11-seed, and two wins gets us up to a 9-seed.
Lastly, there's also a "rooting guide" to theoretically show which games have the most impact on our chances to make the tourney, but is more just for fun.
I like that the game at Nebby is a freebie. Despite the other thread, I think that is going to be a tough hill to climb.
I think 12-8 is a lock. I am scarred (and scared) by so many BTT pants-poopings
Good read although I think 12 total conf wins is a lock. 11 probably too. A lot of conferences are down this year and they do still have to fill the field lol. 10 won’t get it done though because of the CSU debacle. I agree there.
11 or 12 might work but would result in much unnecessary gnashing of teeth, etc.
Getting to 13 wins should be the floor. This team is good enough to get 15.
Getting to 13 wins should be the floor. This team is good enough to get 15.
12 is the threshold to avoid sweating on Selection Sunday.
Agree this team is capable of several more.
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