Teams on the Rise
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Re: The line that surprised me
Fair points Medill90. Allow me to retort.
White is a loss, without a doubt. But so was Marble. With Dom Uhl coming back and JUCO forward Dale Jones likely to commit this weekend, Iowa is actually better prepared to replace White than they were Marble. Olaseni was the kind of player who looked impressive with his highlight dunks and blocks, but he suffered from a lot of defensive lapses and inconsistency on offense. He was a solid contributor, but not irreplaceable by any means. Oglesby was a 3-point specialist who shot 29% from deep. He will be easily replaced.
If you think Iowa's class isn't "stellar," you must feel Northwestern's class is pretty blah:
Jordan Ash - Iowa has two guards in the 2015 class ranked higher in Illinois by local high school basketball expert Joe Henricksen. A third guard, Andrew Fleming, has a more impressive offer list than Ash. In other words, Ash would be the 4th most highly-regarded guard in Iowa's class.
Aaron Falzon - Falzon has a good offer list, but Brandon Hutton had offers from Wisconsin and West Virginia when he committed to Iowa early in the process. No group of 3 from among Falzon's offers is as good as Wisconsin, West Virginia and Iowa.
Dererk Pardon - Pardon's ratings from ESPN and 247 are 78 and 84, respectively. The numbers for Ahmad Wagner are 78 and 86 on those same sites.
Joey van Zegeren - Put up OK numbers playing for a bad team before being kicked off that team.
I don't say any of this to denigrate the incoming Northwestern players, because I think it is a really good class. I just think to downplay the Iowa class is pointless given how favorably it compares to the Wildcat group of newcomers.
One thing that bodes well for the Hawkeyes is that Coach McCaffery has been able to get more of his type of player starting with this most recent class. He loves athletic, versatile guys who play long. With Moss, Hutton, Wagner, Williams and likely Jones, Coach McCaffery was able to load up on this type of player. Several times in the past, he had to take recruits who weren't the best fit for his system because that was who he could get. Coach McCaffery will have a lot more leeway going forward to implement everything he wants to do.
Iowa's guards will be fine this coming year. Gesell gets overlooked because he isn't flashy, but he's been the starting point guard on a Big Ten team that's won 67 games over the past 3 years. That didn't happen by accident. Jok had an up-and-down year, but his numbers were commensurate with what Demps did in his second year in Evanston. I expect Jok to have a similar Year 2 to Year 3 jump. Clemmons is a luxury: an experienced and athletic back-up who can knock down open 3's.
I certainly wouldn't be surprised if Iowa finishes with below 3rd in the conference. I also don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Northwestern makes up ground relative to Iowa. I'm impressed with what Collins has done with the program. But I think the prediction that Iowa will "struggle" isn't supported by the facts.
Fair points Medill90. Allow me to retort.
White is a loss, without a doubt. But so was Marble. With Dom Uhl coming back and JUCO forward Dale Jones likely to commit this weekend, Iowa is actually better prepared to replace White than they were Marble. Olaseni was the kind of player who looked impressive with his highlight dunks and blocks, but he suffered from a lot of defensive lapses and inconsistency on offense. He was a solid contributor, but not irreplaceable by any means. Oglesby was a 3-point specialist who shot 29% from deep. He will be easily replaced.
If you think Iowa's class isn't "stellar," you must feel Northwestern's class is pretty blah:
Jordan Ash - Iowa has two guards in the 2015 class ranked higher in Illinois by local high school basketball expert Joe Henricksen. A third guard, Andrew Fleming, has a more impressive offer list than Ash. In other words, Ash would be the 4th most highly-regarded guard in Iowa's class.
Aaron Falzon - Falzon has a good offer list, but Brandon Hutton had offers from Wisconsin and West Virginia when he committed to Iowa early in the process. No group of 3 from among Falzon's offers is as good as Wisconsin, West Virginia and Iowa.
Dererk Pardon - Pardon's ratings from ESPN and 247 are 78 and 84, respectively. The numbers for Ahmad Wagner are 78 and 86 on those same sites.
Joey van Zegeren - Put up OK numbers playing for a bad team before being kicked off that team.
I don't say any of this to denigrate the incoming Northwestern players, because I think it is a really good class. I just think to downplay the Iowa class is pointless given how favorably it compares to the Wildcat group of newcomers.
One thing that bodes well for the Hawkeyes is that Coach McCaffery has been able to get more of his type of player starting with this most recent class. He loves athletic, versatile guys who play long. With Moss, Hutton, Wagner, Williams and likely Jones, Coach McCaffery was able to load up on this type of player. Several times in the past, he had to take recruits who weren't the best fit for his system because that was who he could get. Coach McCaffery will have a lot more leeway going forward to implement everything he wants to do.
Iowa's guards will be fine this coming year. Gesell gets overlooked because he isn't flashy, but he's been the starting point guard on a Big Ten team that's won 67 games over the past 3 years. That didn't happen by accident. Jok had an up-and-down year, but his numbers were commensurate with what Demps did in his second year in Evanston. I expect Jok to have a similar Year 2 to Year 3 jump. Clemmons is a luxury: an experienced and athletic back-up who can knock down open 3's.
I certainly wouldn't be surprised if Iowa finishes with below 3rd in the conference. I also don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Northwestern makes up ground relative to Iowa. I'm impressed with what Collins has done with the program. But I think the prediction that Iowa will "struggle" isn't supported by the facts.
Re: The line that surprised me
Having Rayvonte Rice and 6 Rivals Top 150 players and turning that into a .500 record in a very down Big Ten.
Re: The line that surprised me
Henricksen did rank two of Iowa's commits above Ash. And then at the conclusion of the year put Ash on his 2015 All State team ahead of both. Ash was also first team AP All State over the other two. I've seen Ash play a few CCL games and the state championship game and couldn't be happier that NU nabbed him. Great athlete, skilled basketball player, smart kid and terrific leader. He'll play a lot his freshman year.
I'll also take the 6' 8" dead eye shooter who was the best player in New England over the 6' 6" De LaSalle Meteor who did make all conference (but not first team all conference like Jordan Ash).
Thanks for providing the ESPN numbers for Dererk. And Kudos for spelling his name correctly. Through the magic of ESPN we saw Pardon play against one of the top teams in the country. He was dominant against top-shelf competition. He was also dominant in the state championship game where he had 15-12-9. The cupboard is getting full, but we'll squeeze him in despite his flaws.
Your charitable description of JVZ may warrant some fact checking.
These are reactions to your comments about NU's recruits. When I said that Iowa's class wasn't stellar I did not mean to indicate bad, or, not good. I wasn't comparing Iowa to NU, but now that you nudged me in that direction, I'll take NU's class over Iowa's. That doesn't mean a whole lot because the pieces have to fit the system. If these are great fits and fill the need for Iowa then great. I just don't look at it like I look at Illinois' or MSU's class and think, "shit."
White was a terrific player and with the other losses Iowa drops.
And I'm a fan of Fran's. Hope he can get it done. But he needs better talent to keep pace in the Big Ten.
Henricksen did rank two of Iowa's commits above Ash. And then at the conclusion of the year put Ash on his 2015 All State team ahead of both. Ash was also first team AP All State over the other two. I've seen Ash play a few CCL games and the state championship game and couldn't be happier that NU nabbed him. Great athlete, skilled basketball player, smart kid and terrific leader. He'll play a lot his freshman year.
I'll also take the 6' 8" dead eye shooter who was the best player in New England over the 6' 6" De LaSalle Meteor who did make all conference (but not first team all conference like Jordan Ash).
Thanks for providing the ESPN numbers for Dererk. And Kudos for spelling his name correctly. Through the magic of ESPN we saw Pardon play against one of the top teams in the country. He was dominant against top-shelf competition. He was also dominant in the state championship game where he had 15-12-9. The cupboard is getting full, but we'll squeeze him in despite his flaws.
Your charitable description of JVZ may warrant some fact checking.
These are reactions to your comments about NU's recruits. When I said that Iowa's class wasn't stellar I did not mean to indicate bad, or, not good. I wasn't comparing Iowa to NU, but now that you nudged me in that direction, I'll take NU's class over Iowa's. That doesn't mean a whole lot because the pieces have to fit the system. If these are great fits and fill the need for Iowa then great. I just don't look at it like I look at Illinois' or MSU's class and think, "shit."
White was a terrific player and with the other losses Iowa drops.
And I'm a fan of Fran's. Hope he can get it done. But he needs better talent to keep pace in the Big Ten.
Re: The line that surprised me
The rankings of Big 10 teams for next year are:
1. Maryland - Melo Trimble could be Big 10 MVP, Jake Layman, Diamond Stone and G-Tech Transfer Robert Carter (6'8", 240 lbs);
2. Indiana - Ferrell, Blackmon and 5-star center coming in are all McDonald's All-American's. Troy Williams has NBA talent. Crean is a question mark in coaching;
3. MSU - Valentine will be a stud and an all-Big 10 selection. Schilling is a handful. Transfer from WVU and two 5-star recruits coming in. Izzo maximizes the team's talent;
4. UW - Nigel Hayes will be a good candidate for Big 10 POY and Bronson Koenig is a stud. UW has finished in the 4 of the Big 10 for 10 plus years;
5. UM - If Caris Lavert is back this team is dangerous. Walton, Irvin, Dawkins and Lavert makes this team dangerous;
Mid-tier
6. OSU - always has great talent and they are bringing in probably the best class. They seem to entice 4 and 5 star players with some great benefits (use your imagination here). Thad Matta does not seem to develop these athletically talented players;
7-11. NU, Illinois, Iowa, Purdue (If Hammons leaves). Purdue still will be tough with the 7'2" Haas starting. Olah has had problems with players who are his size and Haas is bigger.
If the Big 10 is the toughest conference, there is a possibility that 8 out of the 14 teams might make the tourney. So the possibility exists if Olah, MacIntosh, Law and Lindsey take the next step in development and Falzon, Van Zegeren and Pardon can play at a Big 10 level and bolster the front court so we can compete with every Big 10 team. It will be interesting who the last scholarship goes to. I am hoping for a veteran backup PG.
Lower Tier
11. Minnesota; 12. UNL, 13. PSU and 14. PSU.
The rankings of Big 10 teams for next year are:
1. Maryland - Melo Trimble could be Big 10 MVP, Jake Layman, Diamond Stone and G-Tech Transfer Robert Carter (6'8", 240 lbs);
2. Indiana - Ferrell, Blackmon and 5-star center coming in are all McDonald's All-American's. Troy Williams has NBA talent. Crean is a question mark in coaching;
3. MSU - Valentine will be a stud and an all-Big 10 selection. Schilling is a handful. Transfer from WVU and two 5-star recruits coming in. Izzo maximizes the team's talent;
4. UW - Nigel Hayes will be a good candidate for Big 10 POY and Bronson Koenig is a stud. UW has finished in the 4 of the Big 10 for 10 plus years;
5. UM - If Caris Lavert is back this team is dangerous. Walton, Irvin, Dawkins and Lavert makes this team dangerous;
Mid-tier
6. OSU - always has great talent and they are bringing in probably the best class. They seem to entice 4 and 5 star players with some great benefits (use your imagination here). Thad Matta does not seem to develop these athletically talented players;
7-11. NU, Illinois, Iowa, Purdue (If Hammons leaves). Purdue still will be tough with the 7'2" Haas starting. Olah has had problems with players who are his size and Haas is bigger.
If the Big 10 is the toughest conference, there is a possibility that 8 out of the 14 teams might make the tourney. So the possibility exists if Olah, MacIntosh, Law and Lindsey take the next step in development and Falzon, Van Zegeren and Pardon can play at a Big 10 level and bolster the front court so we can compete with every Big 10 team. It will be interesting who the last scholarship goes to. I am hoping for a veteran backup PG.
Lower Tier
11. Minnesota; 12. UNL, 13. PSU and 14. PSU.
Re: The line that surprised me
What happens when PSU plays PSU? Sounds like a guaranteed win....AND a guaranteed loss....How is the result scored????
Re: The line that surprised me
Caris Lavert would be nuts to stay. He needs to heal up his foot, get is money and go. If he stayed and hurt his foot again it would be terrible for him.
Wiscy will be good and the remaining players are terrific, but not as terrific when you take away two go-to guys who can create and finish low, middle and outside. And its not just losing talent, its losing huge length. 4. might be a little high, especially second half of the season when the league has played and teams have gelled.
You can put Illinois just about anywhere after Maryland.
I think on principle you can't put Indy 2. Sure, it has the talent. But it finds ways to lose games.
Caris Lavert would be nuts to stay. He needs to heal up his foot, get is money and go. If he stayed and hurt his foot again it would be terrible for him.
Wiscy will be good and the remaining players are terrific, but not as terrific when you take away two go-to guys who can create and finish low, middle and outside. And its not just losing talent, its losing huge length. 4. might be a little high, especially second half of the season when the league has played and teams have gelled.
You can put Illinois just about anywhere after Maryland.
I think on principle you can't put Indy 2. Sure, it has the talent. But it finds ways to lose games.
Re: The line that surprised me
The last time Wisconsin finished worse than 4th in the Big Ten was....the 2000-01 season. I don't think there's a better bet in the country than Wisconsin finishing top-4 in the conference. Definitely agree about IU, Crean's presence limits how high they can go. Right now it seems like Levert is only leaving if they tell him he'll be a 1st rounder, and it's not looking that way. I think he'll be back.
The last time Wisconsin finished worse than 4th in the Big Ten was....the 2000-01 season. I don't think there's a better bet in the country than Wisconsin finishing top-4 in the conference. Definitely agree about IU, Crean's presence limits how high they can go. Right now it seems like Levert is only leaving if they tell him he'll be a 1st rounder, and it's not looking that way. I think he'll be back.
Re: The line that surprised me
I get that. And they still have a couple great players. And you can't write off Bo.
But looking at their roster they just got much shorter and much younger. They don't like to play the frosh too much but they may have to this coming season to backfill the middle.
I get that. And they still have a couple great players. And you can't write off Bo.
But looking at their roster they just got much shorter and much younger. They don't like to play the frosh too much but they may have to this coming season to backfill the middle.
