I am pretty sure there are about four other people who watch NU hoops recruiting as close as I do who are not making money from the endeavor. I have shared my thoughts on Collins strategy as I have seen it play out over the years. With the one exception of the Nance / Kopp class, it generally goes like this:
First, Collins aims high, recruits the hell out of his A list kids and gets them to visit, then an unknown variable enters - it could be a program with a better reputation, could be academics, could be NIL. These kids are typically top 100 guys with a number of P5 offers but from a historical program reputation, NU is typically not their best offer. These kids visit over the summer and then in almost all cases - they chose another program. For kids on NU's board right now, Singleton, Bennerman and Sanders fit this profile. One change with these guys is they are visiting later in the process which typically would mean NU is close. However, in each case there is a bigger program on the radar - Purdue for Singleton, Michigan, Duke, NC State for Bennerman. Sanders is a little bit of an outlier. Sanders does not have what I could call an elite program on his offer list but he has 10 or so really good programs. Very little info has come out about these guys visits other than not committed instagram photo shoot posts. However, Collins hit rate is low with these guys.
Second, as the first group of kids fall of the board, a new group appears. Collins makes a second round of offers (this is where we are now). These are the kids that have been the backbone of Collins' program. These kids fit into two categories. The first are your top 150 guys with offers from schools that are solid but NU clearly has an advantage over. Think BMac, Ty Berry and Brooks Barnhizer or even Nicholson (he had Xavier and Creighton offers). I don't call these B-list guys for NU but they are B-list for the schools where Collins' A listers end up. The second group of guys in this category are the guys that Collins finds at AAU tourneys in the summer after their Jr. year - Boo Buie is obviously the poster child for this group. Collins hits on these kids at a very high rate when they visit. None of the 3 recent offers - Kropp, West. Mingo has visited but Mingo has a planed visit. You might cry out - why is Mingo on the B-list - he's rated really high. Here is why. Mingo does not have any what I would call "elite" offers. What he as is a ton of offers from schools like NU. Teams right on the edge of the tourney year in and out. Some power 5 and some high mid-majors. But there is no program on the list where you say has a clear advantage over where NU is right now (this 100% due to what Collins has done at NU that I actually can write this with a straight face).
As for the other two, Kropp's list is best compared to Ryan Young's list in - a ton of mid major offers from teams that are auto-qualifiers a lot. West's list is similar is similar but with a number of lower P5 offers.
Anyway, this is how NU hoops recruiting has worked over the last 8 years or so. As I said, the one difference this year is that the A list guys have hung out there a little longer. This is combo of two things - kids are generally waiting because of roster fluidity and NU is a stronger program. Still, if I was a gambling individual, which I am not, I would bet that NU ends up with at best 1 of the A list guys above and 2 of the b list guys. Kropp seems to be in the wheelhouse. I have not seen anything about West visiting but given his social media presence, NU would seem to be attractive over his other offers.
I really have no expectations that Collins will land any of these kids. If I had to pick the one I thought is most likely to commit, it would be Kropp given that NU is clearly his best offer. Mingo and West are both interesting. Then I would go with Sanders, Bennerman and Singleton from highest to lowest odds. I would place those odds no greater than 30% for any of them and the reason is that neither Sanders or Bennerman committed on their visit and the clock is running and the longer that clock runs, the more the odds they will commit decrease. I think the ship has sailed completely on Singleton.
First, Collins aims high, recruits the hell out of his A list kids and gets them to visit, then an unknown variable enters - it could be a program with a better reputation, could be academics, could be NIL. These kids are typically top 100 guys with a number of P5 offers but from a historical program reputation, NU is typically not their best offer. These kids visit over the summer and then in almost all cases - they chose another program. For kids on NU's board right now, Singleton, Bennerman and Sanders fit this profile. One change with these guys is they are visiting later in the process which typically would mean NU is close. However, in each case there is a bigger program on the radar - Purdue for Singleton, Michigan, Duke, NC State for Bennerman. Sanders is a little bit of an outlier. Sanders does not have what I could call an elite program on his offer list but he has 10 or so really good programs. Very little info has come out about these guys visits other than not committed instagram photo shoot posts. However, Collins hit rate is low with these guys.
Second, as the first group of kids fall of the board, a new group appears. Collins makes a second round of offers (this is where we are now). These are the kids that have been the backbone of Collins' program. These kids fit into two categories. The first are your top 150 guys with offers from schools that are solid but NU clearly has an advantage over. Think BMac, Ty Berry and Brooks Barnhizer or even Nicholson (he had Xavier and Creighton offers). I don't call these B-list guys for NU but they are B-list for the schools where Collins' A listers end up. The second group of guys in this category are the guys that Collins finds at AAU tourneys in the summer after their Jr. year - Boo Buie is obviously the poster child for this group. Collins hits on these kids at a very high rate when they visit. None of the 3 recent offers - Kropp, West. Mingo has visited but Mingo has a planed visit. You might cry out - why is Mingo on the B-list - he's rated really high. Here is why. Mingo does not have any what I would call "elite" offers. What he as is a ton of offers from schools like NU. Teams right on the edge of the tourney year in and out. Some power 5 and some high mid-majors. But there is no program on the list where you say has a clear advantage over where NU is right now (this 100% due to what Collins has done at NU that I actually can write this with a straight face).
As for the other two, Kropp's list is best compared to Ryan Young's list in - a ton of mid major offers from teams that are auto-qualifiers a lot. West's list is similar is similar but with a number of lower P5 offers.
Anyway, this is how NU hoops recruiting has worked over the last 8 years or so. As I said, the one difference this year is that the A list guys have hung out there a little longer. This is combo of two things - kids are generally waiting because of roster fluidity and NU is a stronger program. Still, if I was a gambling individual, which I am not, I would bet that NU ends up with at best 1 of the A list guys above and 2 of the b list guys. Kropp seems to be in the wheelhouse. I have not seen anything about West visiting but given his social media presence, NU would seem to be attractive over his other offers.
I really have no expectations that Collins will land any of these kids. If I had to pick the one I thought is most likely to commit, it would be Kropp given that NU is clearly his best offer. Mingo and West are both interesting. Then I would go with Sanders, Bennerman and Singleton from highest to lowest odds. I would place those odds no greater than 30% for any of them and the reason is that neither Sanders or Bennerman committed on their visit and the clock is running and the longer that clock runs, the more the odds they will commit decrease. I think the ship has sailed completely on Singleton.
