To Kill a Mock Drafting Bird

[Hungry Jack]

I want to start a thread on the NFL draft, so I created this catchy title to suck you in.

I read the Sun-Times mock draft while consuming a vastly underrated Beach Club sammich from Jimmy John's. They made it so fast, I had time to read profiles on all 32 first round picks. A few things jumped out.

Assuming the Browns draft another QB (ST says Goff), this will be their 5th quarterback drafted in the first round since 1999. 5 QBs in 17 years? (assuming again in 2016). That is amazing to me. Is this the curse of Brian Sipe?

The ST predicts five Ohio State Buckeyes to go in round 1. Vs. only 3 Bammers. In this regard, OSU underachieved in 2015.

The ST says the Bars will draft that QB from North Dakota. This is probably Ginnie McCaskey saying that they need to draft a QB who can tolerate Bear Weather. Thing is, if "Bear Weather" were really a tangible thing, wouldn't the Weather Channel have sold off sponsorship rights by now?

 

[rwhitney014]

The ST says the Bars will draft that QB from North Dakota. This is probably Ginnie McCaskey saying that they need to draft a QB who can tolerate Bear Weather. Thing is, if "Bear Weather" were really a tangible thing, wouldn't the Weather Channel have sold off sponsorship rights by now?

Just FYI, NDSU plays indoors, in the Fargodome. Wentz is either gonna make a lot of scouts look really smart or really dumb. He's skyrocketed up the draft boards the last couple of months.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Just FYI, NDSU plays indoors, in the Fargodome. Wentz is either gonna make a lot of scouts look really smart or really dumb. He's skyrocketed up the draft boards the last couple of months.

I doubt the McCaskeys know that.

 

[willycat]

I doubt the McCaskeys know that.

Another thing they might not know is that he likely also has a shoulder separation in his throwing arm. They need 2 LB's, rush DE, an OT and a CB before they search for a QB in round 6 or 7.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Another thing they might not know is that he likely also has a shoulder separation in his throwing arm. They need 2 LB's, rush DE, an OT and a CB before they search for a QB in round 6 or 7.

Senior Bowl injury?

FTR, these mock drafts are about as speculative as a penny stock in a bull market once you get past the first few picks. I'd be surprised if the Bears wasted a #11 overall on a QB when their roster is still so thin that "best player available" should be the operative strategy (perhaps excluding offensive line help). This is a weak QB draft, so BPA at #11 should not be a QB.

 

[shakes3858]

The Browns are a miserable organization. They have no stability. The coach changes every other year. The QB changes. The GM/President... is changing too. Even ownership can't stay consistent.

The Browns need to take the Texans' model and say forget about the QB. Look at the playoff teams:

Patriots: Brady Elite QB
Bengals: Dalton Very good QB
Steelers: Roethlisberger Elite QB
Texans: Hoyer, Mallett, Yates, Weeden No QB
Broncos: Manning Elite QB 3 years ago. Now he's below average.
Chiefs: Alex Smith Journeyman QB

Redskins: Cousins serviceable QB
Vikings: Bridgewater not good QB
Packers: Rogers elite QB
Panthers: Newton elite QB
Cardinals: Palmer good QB
Seahawks: Wilson good QB

You don't need to find the stud QB to be a playoff team. You need to build your Oline, Dline, and secondary. Then provide some weapons on the offense. The very last thing you do is find the QB. I'm not saying you pass on Andrew Luck if you have the pick to get him. I am saying that you don't take a B+ QB in the first round because you need a QB. He's going to have to carry the team, and few guys are going to be able to do that. Then in 2-3 years, the fan base will be screaming that he's a bust. The coaching staff is going to get fired. The GM might go too. You'll bring in a new staff that wants "their guy" and you start over again.

The Texans are doing this. 2014 people were screaming for a QB when the Texans had the #1 pick. What do they do? They take Clowney... had an injury as a rookie, but came back and had a good year. They passed on Blake Bortles. 2013 people wanted a QB. They take DeAndre Hopkins and pass on Geno Smith. Instead of a QB that can't stay out of fights with his own teammates, they have a probowl WR. 2012, they pass on Osweiler and don't make a move for Brandon Weeden (ahem Browns). They Draft Whitney Mercilus who's 5th all time in sacks for the team. Has been really highly praised by Bill O'Brien. 2011 they don't make a move for Jake Locker or Blaine Gabbert. They pass on Christian Ponder... but they did take JJ Watt. That turned out pretty terrific.

Build the team, then add the QB. It worked for the Packers, the Steelers, the Seahawks...

 

[Hungry Jack]

Awesome QB without OL or weapons = very average QB (and likely hurt)
Awesome D with average QB = potential SB team

 

[Windy City Cat Fan]

I agree with your overall point but the Texans benefitted by being in a dog crap division, same with Washington - they both got exposed in the playoffs. I think Seattle and Arizona are the better examples - and even Denver as manning is average at best at this point.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Windy City Gridiron did a mock with the Bears taking (Does a Tree Fall in) DeForest Buckner at #11. Problem is, the Giants may very well take him at #10. The Super Bowl can only help a guy like Buckner, who is a prototype 3-4 end.

 

[NU Houston]

The Browns are a miserable organization. They have no stability. The coach changes every other year. The QB changes. The GM/President... is changing too. Even ownership can't stay consistent.

The Browns need to take the Texans' model and say forget about the QB. Look at the playoff teams:

Patriots: Brady Elite QB
Bengals: Dalton Very good QB
Steelers: Roethlisberger Elite QB
Texans: Hoyer, Mallett, Yates, Weeden No QB
Broncos: Manning Elite QB 3 years ago. Now he's below average.
Chiefs: Alex Smith Journeyman QB

Redskins: Cousins serviceable QB
Vikings: Bridgewater not good QB
Packers: Rogers elite QB
Panthers: Newton elite QB
Cardinals: Palmer good QB
Seahawks: Wilson good QB

You don't need to find the stud QB to be a playoff team. You need to build your Oline, Dline, and secondary. Then provide some weapons on the offense. The very last thing you do is find the QB. I'm not saying you pass on Andrew Luck if you have the pick to get him. I am saying that you don't take a B+ QB in the first round because you need a QB. He's going to have to carry the team, and few guys are going to be able to do that. Then in 2-3 years, the fan base will be screaming that he's a bust. The coaching staff is going to get fired. The GM might go too. You'll bring in a new staff that wants "their guy" and you start over again.

The Texans are doing this. 2014 people were screaming for a QB when the Texans had the #1 pick. What do they do? They take Clowney... had an injury as a rookie, but came back and had a good year. They passed on Blake Bortles. 2013 people wanted a QB. They take DeAndre Hopkins and pass on Geno Smith. Instead of a QB that can't stay out of fights with his own teammates, they have a probowl WR. 2012, they pass on Osweiler and don't make a move for Brandon Weeden (ahem Browns). They Draft Whitney Mercilus who's 5th all time in sacks for the team. Has been really highly praised by Bill O'Brien. 2011 they don't make a move for Jake Locker or Blaine Gabbert. They pass on Christian Ponder... but they did take JJ Watt. That turned out pretty terrific.

Build the team, then add the QB. It worked for the Packers, the Steelers, the Seahawks...

Unfortunately for the Texans, Hoyer was really, really bad in the playoff game this year. They needed him to manage the game and not make stupid mistakes, and he made lots of stupid mistakes. They could have stayed with KC if they had had a decent QB. You better believe the fans here are screaming for a QB in the first round of this draft, and I don't think they'll be disappointed this year.

You make some good points, but you can't go back to 2011 when talking about the Texans' lack of a productive QB. They were a quality team in both 2011 and 2012, and Schaub was a very effective QB during those two seasons. He got hurt in 2011, but he made the Pro Bowl in 2012. The fan base's clamoring for a QB really started after the wheels came off in 2013, after Schaub was let go (along with Gary Kubiak, who just won the Super Bowl with Denver two seasons later...). The Texans passed on QBs in high rounds in both the 2014 and 2015 drafts, but many people here are very critical of some of the guys they did end up drafting. Anyway, they're now at the point where they clearly need to use a high draft pick on a QB, and with O'Brien's history with Hackenberg, many people think the pick's already in....

 

[NU Houston]

I agree with your overall point but the Texans benefitted by being in a dog crap division, same with Washington - they both got exposed in the playoffs. I think Seattle and Arizona are the better examples - and even Denver as manning is average at best at this point.

Yep. The AFC South was embarrassingly bad this past season. Going 5-1 against divisional opponents definitely helped the push to the playoffs. Then getting blown out in the first round of the playoffs wasn't entirely surprising.

 

[RunnersLunge]

Jack, the first round will only include 31 selections this year.

At this time, it makes more sense to familiarize oneself with consensus first round talents. Once NFL free agency plays out start placing the puzzle pieces of talent vs team needs. When the actual draft occurs situations of best player available and team trades will occur. This is usually when "the clock" becomes a real factor in decisions that shape a franchise.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Yeah, the Patriots lost their pick due to Deflategate.

The Bears need significant help at every level of defense. It's conceivable they spend the entire draft on defense (they won't as they will draft at least one OT, but it would not be crazy if they went all defense). Luckily for them, it's a pretty decent draft for defense.

I would stay away from Myles Jack. That injury was a bad one. I would never trust a meniscus that has been ripped off the bone.

 

[phatcat]

in the spirit of the title of this thread, Harper Lee passed away

 

[SchizoCat1]

The Browns are a miserable organization. They have no stability. The coach changes every other year. The QB changes. The GM/President... is changing too. Even ownership can't stay consistent.

The Browns need to take the Texans' model and say forget about the QB. Look at the playoff teams:

Patriots: Brady Elite QB
Bengals: Dalton Very good QB
Steelers: Roethlisberger Elite QB
Texans: Hoyer, Mallett, Yates, Weeden No QB
Broncos: Manning Elite QB 3 years ago. Now he's below average.
Chiefs: Alex Smith Journeyman QB

Redskins: Cousins serviceable QB
Vikings: Bridgewater not good QB
Packers: Rogers elite QB
Panthers: Newton elite QB
Cardinals: Palmer good QB
Seahawks: Wilson good QB

You don't need to find the stud QB to be a playoff team. You need to build your Oline, Dline, and secondary. Then provide some weapons on the offense. The very last thing you do is find the QB. I'm not saying you pass on Andrew Luck if you have the pick to get him. I am saying that you don't take a B+ QB in the first round because you need a QB. He's going to have to carry the team, and few guys are going to be able to do that. Then in 2-3 years, the fan base will be screaming that he's a bust. The coaching staff is going to get fired. The GM might go too. You'll bring in a new staff that wants "their guy" and you start over again.

The Texans are doing this. 2014 people were screaming for a QB when the Texans had the #1 pick. What do they do? They take Clowney... had an injury as a rookie, but came back and had a good year. They passed on Blake Bortles. 2013 people wanted a QB. They take DeAndre Hopkins and pass on Geno Smith. Instead of a QB that can't stay out of fights with his own teammates, they have a probowl WR. 2012, they pass on Osweiler and don't make a move for Brandon Weeden (ahem Browns). They Draft Whitney Mercilus who's 5th all time in sacks for the team. Has been really highly praised by Bill O'Brien. 2011 they don't make a move for Jake Locker or Blaine Gabbert. They pass on Christian Ponder... but they did take JJ Watt. That turned out pretty terrific.

Build the team, then add the QB. It worked for the Packers, the Steelers, the Seahawks...

Perhaps the question to be asked is: Of all of the elite quarterbacks in the league, how many of their teams made the playoffs? You named four elite QB's whose teams made the playoffs. How many elites didn't? Example: If there are six elite QB's in the league, and four made the playoffs, then you if you have an elite QB, you have a 2/3 chance of making the playoffs. If there are only 4 elites, then if you have an elite QB you have a 100% chance.

That's not enough, of course, because this whole game involves total post hoc analysis because it takes more than a QB to make an elite QB.

 

[shakes3858]

Perhaps the question to be asked is: Of all of the elite quarterbacks in the league, how many of their teams made the playoffs? You named four elite QB's whose teams made the playoffs. How many elites didn't? Example: If there are six elite QB's in the league, and four made the playoffs, then you if you have an elite QB, you have a 2/3 chance of making the playoffs. If there are only 4 elites, then if you have an elite QB you have a 100% chance.

That's not enough, of course, because this whole game involves total post hoc analysis because it takes more than a QB to make an elite QB.

That's not my point at all. I'd say all the elite QBs make the playoffs and do it basically every year given the elite QB is heathy. Thing is there only 3-4 elite QBs at any given time. A few years ago it was Brady Manning Rogers Brees. Now Brees and Manning are getting old and its Brady, Rogers, Newton. There's a next level of Roethlisberger, Dalton, Wilson, Palmer and others. Those all have a high chance of making the playoffs.

But that's not the point. My point is there aren't enough elite or even really good QBs to go around the league. Picking a mediocre QB like Blake Bortles, Ryan Tannehill, or Johnny Manziel and making them the face of a poor franchise because you're worried because you don't have an elite QB will only leave a team continuing to search for a QB. It might work 1-2 times a decade, but it's attempted far more often.

 

[Hungry Jack]

The Bears apparently have a new ILB, Danny Trevathan. He was a 6th round pick after being All-SEC his senior year.

Thankfully it is a very deep draft for interior d-linemen who can move into a 3-4 DE role. The Bears will need to pick at least 2 to shore up that bereft roster.

 

[Hungry Jack]

I am getting mixed reports on Massie, the Bears new putative RT. I watched his college film, and he looks like a real road-grader in the run game. Good mobility too. I wonder if he might be better off at guard, though his edge protection skills have improved from bad to mediocre. Hopefully his best days are ahead of him.

But with Long and Massie on the right side, I can see that line doling out some punishment in the run game.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Dak Prescott arrested for DUI.

Oops.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Now the Bears have signed DT/DE Akiem Hicks-all 324 pounds of him. Pretty impressive week in FA for GM Ryan Pace, signing two starting ILBs, a starting RT, and a 3-4 DE. Not bad at all. Of course, when your roster is as bereft of talent as the Bears' roster, it is easier to look good in FA.