It's hard to scout this game given how much has changed since the last game against them. On their side, Clark is gone, he played 20 minutes at PG, and Shannon is a question mark, plus they now have Luke Goode back from injury, Epps has solidified the PG minutes and Ty Rodgers is playing a lot more minutes. On our side, Roper is likely out, who had an excellent second half against the Illini and now we have Martinelli.
In the first game, Buie got into foul trouble in the first half and ended up sitting for over 8 and a half minutes, during which we were outscored 18-10. In the second half he was only out for 2 and a half minutes, most of it when the game was already out of hand. He ended up with four fouls in the game, since then he has only had two games with even 3 fouls and none with 4 or more. We'll need him on the court as much as possible tonight.
Verhoeven played...poorly, to say the least in the first game. He was in the game for two of the first half segments when Buie sat, where we were outscored 14-4. Hopefully he can up his play in the backup minutes tonight.
Nicholson went against Dainja for 17 minutes and was +15, while going up against Hawkins for 7 minutes and being +3. Hope the big man can dominate again.
The game turned in the second half when we hit four 3s in a 3-minute span, the last two of which were from Berry, taking us from a 1 point lead to an 8 point lead and snuffing out the Illini's spirit.
Roper had 7 boards, 2 assists and 1 block in addition to being +14 when on the court with Buie. Have to hope Barnhizer and Berry can step up to fill the void, and that Martinelli can keep providing solid minutes to back up Beran, as the Illini will be throwing a lot of height at the 'Cats.
On the Illini side, if Shannon is out, then they will look to run their offense through Mayer and Dainja. He's their best three-point shooter and averages 6 shots per game from beyond the arc. Will likely need Beran guarding him close, Barnhizer will have to work hard when he's on him too. Dainja scored 9 last game - 4 on Nicholson in 17 minutes and 5 on Verhoeven in 7 minutes. Hopefully we do a better job aligning Verhoeven's minutes when Hawkins is playing the 5.
Illinois has shot 28.5% from 3 in their last 12 games while taking 39% of their shots from long distance. If that trend continues, I think things go well tonight. 13 is the magic number of turnovers we need to force, and we need to keep them below 30% offensive rebounding and 40% shooting from 3-point range. Last game we got 15 turnovers, held them to 25.7% rebounding and 28.6% from 3. Also, we probably aren't going to shoot 40 free throws this time, so we need to have a much better shooting night than last time (10/35 from 2 🤮, 7/18 from 3 was fine).