As promised, I will UNLOAD my thoughts from the RAC last night. Warning: This is a long post.
I will break this down into three parts:
1) The game last night
2) The 2019-20 NU basketball season
3) The future of the program
1) For the first 33 minutes of the game, NU silenced the RAC. It was just an impressive display. The open 3s were falling and the beautiful backdoor cuts had some Rutgers fans in my vicinity in awe. Jared Jones was playing as confidently as I've seen all season. It was the NU offense that was moving the ball and cutting confidently off the ball. Virtually no turnovers. Even when the RAC tried to get back into it when the lead was cut to 10-12 points, someone would step up and make a bucket. Again, just incredibly impressive. I was there with a few NU friends who don't follow the team at all, and they were shocked when I told them NU's dismal record...
And then... collapse.
In my opinion, the turning point in the game came at the 8:43 mark in the second half. NU was still up 58-44. Geo went to the free throw line and missed the front end. But, he somehow got his own rebound, dribbled out to the 3-point line, and drained a 3 to cut the lead to 11. It might not have seemed like a turning point, looking at the play-by-play -- Spencer proceeded to make two layups and get the lead back to 14. But up until that point Geo was relatively quiet and Rutgers was cold from beyond the arc. That gave them a jolt of momentum that carried them to an 18-4 run to end regulation, once they realized Spencer wasn't good enough to keep winning one-on-one matchups. It also must be said that Geo was just ridiculous at the end of the game, and in many ways you have to live with him taking contested step-back long jumpers. I thought A.J. did the best he could on defense.
However, we must talk about the end-of-game offense. It was as bad in person as I'm sure it looked on TV. There was no movement off the ball. I was foolishly confident that NU would have one great set up their sleeve with 11 seconds to play and the fact that the best-case scenario was a win, worst-case was OT. I saw Brian James talking at length with Ryan Young. Perhaps a double screen for Kopp, with an option for Young rolling to the basket? But, of course, no. Just Buie holding the ball too damn long and getting an awful look.
Which brings me to...
2) I'm torn about what to make of this season. I've long held the opinion that the overall record this year doesn't matter, it's about the growth of the young guys and setting the program up for success next year and especially in 2021-22. I've been encouraged that among Buie, Beran, Jones, Young, Kopp and Nance, there's a ton of promise and not a clear "bust" among them.
HOWEVER, at a certain point, you have to win some of these games. Even the 2014-15 team, which suffered brutal losses during a 10-game conference losing streak, found a way to finally get over the hump in a hard-fought OT win against Iowa. You might recall in that game Jarrod Uthoff hit a game-tying 3-pointer with 3 seconds left in regulation. This squad has had any number of chances for that breakthrough moment, including last night, and hasn't sealed the deal.
No, this does not mean the roster is made up of "losers." And no, this is not all on Collins. The truth is somewhere in the middle. The main problem I see is that Boo Buie is the team's only true shot creator at the moment. Kopp is a legit Big Ten player but he more or less needs to be set up to catch-and-shoot, or catch-and-fake-and-dribble-and-shoot. And he's worn out by the end of the game so Collins feels more comfortable with the low-risk option of seeing what Buie can do. The RAC was crazy and I could understand the risk-aversion.
It. Just. Does. Not. Work. Though.
The definition of insanity isn't technically "doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result," but that's basically what Collins has been doing in late-game situations. Boo has a lot of Tre Demps in him, but he is not yet Tre Demps. Collins should recognize this by now. The fact that he hasn't is a problem that’s worth talking about.
And so...
3) The future. Is Collins the right coach for this program?
I would say yes*.
The * signifies that I am ready to start warming up Collins's seat. If I were Phillips, I would expressly state I expect to see tangible improvement next season to somewhere in the middle of the conference. Call it 7th-11th. IF Collins can't even deliver that, I would be ready to replace him after the 2021-22 season, barring an NCAA Tournament appearance or a strong NIT run.
The 2021 recruiting class will be telling. Yes, we can all dream about PBJ and Christie coming in and having a One Shining Moment year, but what if that doesn't pan out? Who are the four-year guys that NU brings in? NU will not have a sustainable program without consistently bringing in freshmen who can immediately compete for playing time. Can Collins lock in a few Top 150 guys given the display this season? We will see.
I want to believe in Collins and this program. If you just cut out the ends of games, this team has been without a doubt more enjoyable to watch than either of the past two years.
Are these big leads and brutal losses a sign that Pounding the Rock is working, or a sign that the chisel is broken? That's the question that will be answered in the next 13 months. It hurts, but I'm hopeful.
Go Cats
I will break this down into three parts:
1) The game last night
2) The 2019-20 NU basketball season
3) The future of the program
1) For the first 33 minutes of the game, NU silenced the RAC. It was just an impressive display. The open 3s were falling and the beautiful backdoor cuts had some Rutgers fans in my vicinity in awe. Jared Jones was playing as confidently as I've seen all season. It was the NU offense that was moving the ball and cutting confidently off the ball. Virtually no turnovers. Even when the RAC tried to get back into it when the lead was cut to 10-12 points, someone would step up and make a bucket. Again, just incredibly impressive. I was there with a few NU friends who don't follow the team at all, and they were shocked when I told them NU's dismal record...
And then... collapse.
In my opinion, the turning point in the game came at the 8:43 mark in the second half. NU was still up 58-44. Geo went to the free throw line and missed the front end. But, he somehow got his own rebound, dribbled out to the 3-point line, and drained a 3 to cut the lead to 11. It might not have seemed like a turning point, looking at the play-by-play -- Spencer proceeded to make two layups and get the lead back to 14. But up until that point Geo was relatively quiet and Rutgers was cold from beyond the arc. That gave them a jolt of momentum that carried them to an 18-4 run to end regulation, once they realized Spencer wasn't good enough to keep winning one-on-one matchups. It also must be said that Geo was just ridiculous at the end of the game, and in many ways you have to live with him taking contested step-back long jumpers. I thought A.J. did the best he could on defense.
However, we must talk about the end-of-game offense. It was as bad in person as I'm sure it looked on TV. There was no movement off the ball. I was foolishly confident that NU would have one great set up their sleeve with 11 seconds to play and the fact that the best-case scenario was a win, worst-case was OT. I saw Brian James talking at length with Ryan Young. Perhaps a double screen for Kopp, with an option for Young rolling to the basket? But, of course, no. Just Buie holding the ball too damn long and getting an awful look.
Which brings me to...
2) I'm torn about what to make of this season. I've long held the opinion that the overall record this year doesn't matter, it's about the growth of the young guys and setting the program up for success next year and especially in 2021-22. I've been encouraged that among Buie, Beran, Jones, Young, Kopp and Nance, there's a ton of promise and not a clear "bust" among them.
HOWEVER, at a certain point, you have to win some of these games. Even the 2014-15 team, which suffered brutal losses during a 10-game conference losing streak, found a way to finally get over the hump in a hard-fought OT win against Iowa. You might recall in that game Jarrod Uthoff hit a game-tying 3-pointer with 3 seconds left in regulation. This squad has had any number of chances for that breakthrough moment, including last night, and hasn't sealed the deal.
No, this does not mean the roster is made up of "losers." And no, this is not all on Collins. The truth is somewhere in the middle. The main problem I see is that Boo Buie is the team's only true shot creator at the moment. Kopp is a legit Big Ten player but he more or less needs to be set up to catch-and-shoot, or catch-and-fake-and-dribble-and-shoot. And he's worn out by the end of the game so Collins feels more comfortable with the low-risk option of seeing what Buie can do. The RAC was crazy and I could understand the risk-aversion.
It. Just. Does. Not. Work. Though.
The definition of insanity isn't technically "doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result," but that's basically what Collins has been doing in late-game situations. Boo has a lot of Tre Demps in him, but he is not yet Tre Demps. Collins should recognize this by now. The fact that he hasn't is a problem that’s worth talking about.
And so...
3) The future. Is Collins the right coach for this program?
I would say yes*.
The * signifies that I am ready to start warming up Collins's seat. If I were Phillips, I would expressly state I expect to see tangible improvement next season to somewhere in the middle of the conference. Call it 7th-11th. IF Collins can't even deliver that, I would be ready to replace him after the 2021-22 season, barring an NCAA Tournament appearance or a strong NIT run.
The 2021 recruiting class will be telling. Yes, we can all dream about PBJ and Christie coming in and having a One Shining Moment year, but what if that doesn't pan out? Who are the four-year guys that NU brings in? NU will not have a sustainable program without consistently bringing in freshmen who can immediately compete for playing time. Can Collins lock in a few Top 150 guys given the display this season? We will see.
I want to believe in Collins and this program. If you just cut out the ends of games, this team has been without a doubt more enjoyable to watch than either of the past two years.
Are these big leads and brutal losses a sign that Pounding the Rock is working, or a sign that the chisel is broken? That's the question that will be answered in the next 13 months. It hurts, but I'm hopeful.
Go Cats