Was Michigan's Final Four run a fluke?

[NUCat320]

I tend to think it was - but Beilein ran such a good program at WVU, and has seemingly significantly better resources at Michigan.

Still, this year is surprising, especially considering it's got a class recruited off a final four run.

Interested to hear the board's perspective.

Go Cats.

 

[NURoseBowl]

Well, not that this is particularly insightful, but they have lost a TON of talent to the NBA the last couple of years.

 

[yiana]

No. They followed up with an outright B1G title and an elite eight run. The year prior they tied for the B1G title.

At a point in the Maryland game, they had 3 freshman and 2 walkons in the game. They have been decimated by early entry and injuries, but still have a shot to go .500 in a 7 bid league.
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[realcatfan]

Beilien is the real deal, but he's dealing with the roller coaster ride that is college basketball. If you have a good player, you can't recruit his replacement because guys don't want to come in and be a back up. Then the good player might leave early after a successful tournament run which puts a giant hole in your roster. Is Michigan going to be a perennial final 4 team? No, but I think they're more likely going to be a upper tier big ten team most years. And keep in mind, their best player got hurt, and they have 3 OT losses in conference.

Even Calipari followed up his national title year at Kentucky with an first round NIT loss and a 21-12 record. The next year, they started as the #1 team in the country, but went into the tournament unranked 24-10 and was given an 8 seed. I wonder if they would've made the tournament if they weren't in a relative weak SEC compared to the Big Ten .

 

[Yost24]

Beilein followed that Final Four/NC Game appearance

With an outright B1G Championship (by 3 games), a runnerup finish in the B1G Tourney, and an Elite 8 finish last season.

As for this season, the roster issues that Beilein has had to deal with have been immense.

Michigan lost FIVE players off last year's B1G Champion squad, which is a huge turnover for a basketball team. They lost Mitch McGary, Glenn Robinson III, and Nik Stauskas all to the NBA, and lost 5th year senior post Jordan Morgan to graduation, and post Jon Horford to transfer.

Coming into the season that left them with 1 junior, 2 sophomores, and 2 freshmen as starters with 1 junior, and 3 freshmen rounding out the bench. Talk about a huge void of experience, etc.

Then, just when Michigan started to round into shape, they lose their TWO best players in Caris Levert and Derrick Walton (towards the end of January) and now trot out a lineup consisting of 1 junior, 1 sophomore, and 3 freshmen, with another couple frosh and WALKONS in reserve.

Michigan is not Kentucky, Duke, Arizona, Kansas, etc. Meaning we cannot lose FIVE guys off a roster, and then 65% of the way into the season lose the 2 best players on the team and just plug in other burger boys.

Since late January, Michigan's starting 5 has not included even 1 player who was in the starting 5 last season, and beyond that they're only playing 2 players this season who played last year too.

You can dog Beilein if you want, but IMHO it's ridiculous.

 

[TypeO]

Originally posted by NUCat320:
I tend to think it was - but Beilein ran such a good program at WVU, and has seemingly significantly better resources at Michigan.

Still, this year is surprising, especially considering it's got a class recruited off a final four run.

Interested to hear the board's perspective.

Go Cats.

Uh, no.

They followed it up with an Elite 8 run (lost to UK by a bucket) while losing one of their top players (McGary) to injury, sent a ton of players to the NBA, and are missing their top two players.

 

[4IUSox2]

No school short of Kentucky could maintain their previous success with the early departures to the NBA that UM has experienced. When Robinson, Stauskas and Burk were recruited, there was absolutely no one thinking they would be two and done talents. That's a credit to the kids and their coach. All three, plus McGary would still have been playing this year.

 

[Walker Fan]

Let's get this straight, you are asking whether UM's Final 4 run was a fluke? UM has been more of a basketball power than a football power over the past 3-5 years.

UM lost soph. Burke (National POY) and Hardaway, Jr. to the NBA two years ago. Then they lost Sophs. Stauskas (Big 10 POY), Robinson III and McGrary (Top 10 H.S. Recruit) who was the key to the run to NCAA final game two years ago and lost big men Morgan to graduation and Jon Horford who transferred after last season. They then lost projected NBA first round draft pick LaVert to an injury and Walton who was the Michigan H.S. POY of the Year to injuries. This season they took UW to OT and beat OSU with a depleted roster and you are asking whether a trip to the Finals two years ago and a trip to the Elite 8 and a heatbreaking loss to the Professional Minor League team Kentucky is an indication that they are a fluke? This topic is too funny.

If you lose 5 guys to the NBA early and two possible future NBA draft picks to injuries, 99 percent of the teams in the NCAA would struggle to .500 except for UK who brings in 5-7 NBA draft picks in each season because of the green magic of Lexington.

 

[NUCat320]

Yes, I was asking.

And I see a .500 team, and I see that their group of freshmen just lost to our group of freshmen.

I think the jury's out.

 

[Walker Fan]

Even with a season ending injury Caris Lavert is projected to be a NBA first round pick (no. 25) by nbadraft.net. Zach Irvin was Indiana Mr. Basketball two years ago and based on his 28 performance on Tuesday night, he is more talented than any player NU has. Walton was a former Mr. Basketball in Michigan and also has a ton of talent. If all three of those players are on the court and you throw in Aubrey Dawkins and no. 12 Rakman and they are more talented than NU. And I say that reluctantly because I am bullish on NU's roster. But there are no future NBA first rounders on NU's squad and there is one and probably two NBA first rounders on UM's squad. So yes, UM has a more talented roster of Lavert comes back for a senior season.

 

[pawildcat]

Outside of a very few dominant programs, the odds are against almost any run to the final four. You've got to have superior talent and play top ball against opponents who, after the first game or two, are all in the top half or better of their conferences. Even 14 and 15 seeds have pulled upsets on occasion. Dean Smith's run of double-digit Sweet 16 appearances is considered remarkable, which shows how hard it is to advance.

Looking at Michigan's problems this year, their lack of success is not hard to understand. You don't think Beilein has run a good program at Michigan?

 

[Hungry Jack]

And that team has nothing to do with the tournament team. It's apples and hand grenades.

 

[LeftyLarry]

As a Badger fan, I always tell teams who's Coaches suck that they're one year away from being good.
I love Tom Crean, Richard Pitino, Fran McCaffrey and tell their fan bases that those teams are just a year or so away and they shouldn't panic.

Heck, nobody supported Bo Pellini more than I did, great Coach, great man, I wanted Nebraska to hold on to him and treasure him forever.

 

[Walker Fan]

Pawildcat,

UNC's recruiting was made a lot easier by the non-existent classes that scholarship basketball and football players took or did not take in African studies that the basketball coaching staff had no idea was occurring which is not credible Also, it is a lot easier to recruit when you get passing grades or "A" and "B" for non-existent classes (see Rashad McCants' claims), when you have the greatest player over the past 30-35 years play three years at your school in Michael Jordan and obviously, have the great basketball history of winning. But that is solely my opinion. So I do not think the double digit streak of Sweet 16 appearances is that remarkable considering those factors. It is obvious to me that UNC's latest national championship should be vacated due to the failure of institutional control and the bogus classes.

 

[Katatonic]

As already mentioned UM lost a lot of players early and a couple to injury so this season's downturn is understandable.

The UM BB program is in good hands w/ Beilein, but it is a bit humorous that many UM fans were calling for Beilein's head not that long ago.

What was much more of a fluke - UI's short 2-season NCAA run under Crean; Crean's record w/o Zeller is pretty abysmal.

Compare Crean's resumer w/ Beilein's.

In 7 seasons under Crean, IU will have made the NCAAs 3 times (that is, if they make it this yr) - and never got past the Sweet Sixteen.

In 5 out of 8 yrs under Beilein, UM has made the NCAAs, including playing in the national title game, the Elite 8 and the 3rd rnd (where as the #8 seed took #1 Duke to the wire - 73-71).

While at Marquette, Crean only made it past the 2nd rnd once - a FF appearance.

He basically has Dwayne Wade to thank for his millions.