What's Worse

[ohiovalleycat]

I see a lot of talk about firing JON, but when I look at the statistics, the 2022 scoring defense is actually ranked in the 3rd quartile nationally at #82 out of 131 teams at 28.1 points per game. Meanwhile, the 2022 scoring offense is in the 4th quartile at #118 out of #131 teams at 18.6 points per game. I understand the 2021 defense under "JON" immediately gave up almost twice what was given up under Hankwitz in his last year and that it is about the same so far in 2022. However, the Bajakian offense is not doing much more than Mick McCall's the last couple of years and it is actually doing worse than what a normal McCall offense might get (mid-20s average and as high as 29.2 as recently as 2017):

NU TEAM SCORING POINTS PER GAM (2012-2022), SEASON RECORD
2012 Offense - 31.7, Defense - 22.5, Record (10-3)
2013 Offense - 26.2, Defense - 27.1, Record (5-7)
2014 Offense - 23.0, Defense - 25.2, Record (5-7)
2015 Offense - 19.5 , Defense - 18.6, Record (10-3)
2016 Offense - 26.0, Defense - 22.2, Record (7-6)
2017 Offense - 29.2, Defense - 20.1, Record (10-3)
2018 Offense - 24.2, Defense - 23.2, Record (9-5)
2019 Offense - 16.3, Defense - 23.6, Record (3-9)
2020 Offense - 24.7, Defense - 15.9, Record (7-2)
2021 Offense - 16.6, Defense - 29.0, Record (3-9)
2022 Offense - 18.6, Defense - 28.1, Record (1-6)

The 2020 Offense did improve significantly from McCall's last year in 2019 by than 8 points per game, but that was probably mostly ensured by having an experienced Big-Ten graduate transfer quarterback in Peyton Ramsey plus the irregularities of the COVID-shut down year and plus being in a position to improve off of the troubled year replacing a 4-year starting quarterback in 2019. The 2021 and 2022 scoring offense has dropped back to where McCall left off, which was similar to McCall's worst years. Why isn't more heat placed on the offensive coaching when it is actually ranked worse as a unit nationally than the defense? Is it just the stark contrast with the drop off in defensive performance between Hankwitz and JON? Is it that in continuing to rely on Tresselball, we expect more out of the defense?

 

[Go Catz]

Why isn't more heat placed on the offensive coaching when it is actually ranked worse as a unit nationally than the defense? Is it just the stark contrast with the drop off in defensive performance between Hankwitz and JON? Is it that in continuing to rely on Tresselball, we expect more out of the defense?

Yeah, the offense is worse. I think the fan outrage can be explained as follows:

1. JON inherited a great defense, works for a defense-minded head coach, and came in with a resume of bad defenses as a buddy hire, and sure enough he has fielded the worst defense in a decade, two years in a row.

2. Bajakian inherited a mess, has to deal with the Tresselball team/HC culture, and came in with a nice resume. He got a boost from Ramsey but that's running out of steam now.

My two cents, Fitz ought to strongly consider turning over the entire offensive staff and getting out of the way of someone new and coming up.

The offense has been bad for so long. We are not a couple plays away, or just needing one or two guys. It needs change, real change.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Yes

 

[CappyNU]

Here are the scores at the end of the first three drives in each of our games under JON:

MSU 0-14
Indiana St. 14-0
@Duke 0-14
Ohio 14-0
@Neb 7-21
Rutgers 7-0
@Mich 0-7
Minn 7-20
Iowa 0-0
@Wisc 0-14
Purdue 0-3
@Ill 0-7
#Neb 10-14
Duke 0-21
SIU 14-7
Miami OH 7-0
@PSU 0-0
Wisc 0-14
@MD 7-0

In 8 of 19 games, we allowed 2+ TDs in the first 3 drives, and went 1-7 in those games (#Neb only win).
In 6 of the 19 games, we were winning after the first 3 drives, and went 3-3 in those games (3-0 last year, 0-3 this year).
In the other 5 games, we went 0-5:

• #6 Michigan eventually woke up
• #22 Iowa scored TDs on their 4th and 5th drives
• Purdue scored on their next 6 drives
• Illinois scored on their next 7 drives
• #11 PSU was played in a hurricane

Notably, 4 of these 5 games were from last season after the bye when Fitz went more "hands-on" with the defense. Obviously it didn't really work, it just delayed the disaster a bit longer.

So yes, the offense has largely been terrible, but 53% of the time against P5 teams (8 of 15) they have been put in a giant hole from the start due to the D and likely have to toss the game script.