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Why I'm cautiously optimistic about the offense after week 1

TheC

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May 29, 2001
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In the spirit of more discussion about the play on the field, I offer my very amateur, haven't-really-strapped-it-on analysis from game 1. In particular, I want to talk about why I felt a little better about the offense after watching that game.

It starts with the first play on offense. I love calling an aggressive, down-the-field pass play on play #1. Wright drops back and hits Bryce Kirtz on a deep out for a great gain to start the season. The exciting things about that play included the incredibly clean pocket Wright had for a significant amount of time which allowed Kirtz to get wide open down the field. The throw was strong and on target. While it seems like a simple play, it was play that was a struggle for the last several NU QBs not named Ben Bryant - either because the QB didn't have the arm or because the QB had happy feet watching the pass rush collapse. Wright hit similar passes like that a few times on Saturday, which is very encouraging.

Wright looks like he can play the part this year. He missed some throws, including those fade routes where I felt like he just didn't get enough touch on the ball. Someone on here commented that he lacked arm strength, but I thought just the opposite. I thought he threw bullets on every pass, even when a softer touch would have been better. I don't think arm strength will be the problem. Consistency may be the problem as he would hit one throw and then miss the next. But overall, I think he has the ability to lead a productive passing game. On top of that, he is a weapon running the ball, which we saw a little, but I expect we'll see even more as the competition gets tougher.

Also exciting was seeing the way Cam Porter was running the ball. He was his old, violent-running self making some nice cuts running inside and then crashing into defenders at the end. His run inside the 10 yard line on that ill-fated first half drive was some powerful inside running that this team could really use this year. I was somewhat disappointed in the other two backs. I don't think they really displayed anything. But it is early. One 75-yard screen pass to Himon is probably coming at some point soon!

Overall, the 13 points doesn't look so great on the scoreboard, but this was a game I felt like we should have easily scored 23-30 points. In the first half, the offense couldn't quite get out of it's own way. We made some nice plays and started a drive, but then had a mistake play that threw us off schedule. On the first drive, it was the botched snap, shovel pass to Covey that led to a big loss, killing a drive near mid-field. Then there was another drive that was promising ending with the first fumbled snap. Then a penalty slowed another drive. Then we finally got our act together only to see that crushing goal line fumble. I know they won't be perfect, but if they can clean some of those mistakes up, I think they will score points this year.

Finally, I'm still blindly believing that Lujan is an offensive wunderkind until I've seen enough to dissuade me of that fantasy. The playcalling, while not revolutionary, also didn't seem stagnant and predictable, which it had become under the last two OCs. We'll see how that looks going to game #2.
 
Not so amateur. Brought up an interesting observation. What, if anything, was unique/different about Lujan's play calling from times past? There certainly were more long shots down field than in times past. On a couple of them I got the feeling they were more to tell the defense NU was willing to take shots vs an expectation they would be completed. The TEs weren't targeted a lot although there was the one big completion. Didn't seem like Henning got a lot of targets. The sweeps didn't work which was a little surprising as they were more effective last year. Good, disciplined D expecting them? Any other thoughts.
 
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The broadcast announced Gordon and Lang as starters, along with Porter-Kirtz-Henning. Use of TEs is something that we’ve been led to believe will distinguish Lujan.

But I’m pretty that Covey got more snaps than Lang. We also saw a fair bit of Calvin Johnson.

Wholeheartedly agree that Komolafe and Himon were disappointments in week one.
 
The broadcast announced Gordon and Lang as starters, along with Porter-Kirtz-Henning. Use of TEs is something that we’ve been led to believe will distinguish Lujan.

But I’m pretty that Covey got more snaps than Lang. We also saw a fair bit of Calvin Johnson.

Wholeheartedly agree that Komolafe and Himon were disappointments in week one.
You raise another point I forgot to mention - I'm liking the WR depth so far. Covey looks legit and Calvin Johnson also seems like he will contribute this year. Jared Thomas said the coaches were raving about CJIII, though that may have just been tv talk.

As for the TEs, I agree I only remember the one long catch and run, but that was a broken play. Not sure why they weren't targeted more. That could have been part of the gameplan, the team taking what was given to them or the fact that Wright hasn't developed as much chemistry with them as he has his WR group. We need more data!
 
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I thought Wright was fine Saturday but could've been much better on putting the pass on the money. I don't expect perfection, but there were a few plays that were like three-yard gains or incompletions that a slightly better pass would've resulted in more yards. These aren't major things in Game One, but it's something to keep an eye on. My sense is he hurried a number of his throws, but as he gets more comfortable that will be better.
 
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Not so amateur. Brought up an interesting observation. What, if anything, was unique/different about Lujan's play calling from times past? There certainly were more long shots down field than in times past. On a couple of them I got the feeling they were more to tell the defense NU was willing to take shots vs an expectation they would be completed. The TEs weren't targeted a lot although there was the one big completion. Didn't seem like Henning got a lot of targets. The sweeps didn't work which was a little surprising as they were more effective last year. Good, disciplined D expecting them? Any other thoughts.
Also in the "never strapped it on" camp but it felt like the offense made greater use of quick-developing plays vs. the Bajakian teams of old. I'm hoping that helps to mask some deficiencies on the On-line, and maybe create better rhythm when we have the ball.
 
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I thought Wright was fine Saturday but could've been much better on putting the pass on the money. I don't expect perfection, but there were a few plays that were like three-yard gains or incompletions that a slightly better pass would've resulted in more yards. These aren't major things in Game One, but it's something to keep an eye on. My sense is he hurried a number of his throws, but as he gets more comfortable that will be better.
I think the issue with Wright is that he gets a little excited and that is why his throws are inconsistent. I think he has a good enough arm and can read the defense fairly well, but his throws are affected by him thinking a bit too much and it affects his accuracy. However, as he becomes more comfortable in his position and with the knowledge that the coaches have his back, he will be difficult on defenses who have to keep track of all the receivers and watch out for his ability to run.
 
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I think the issue with Wright is that he gets a little excited and that is why his throws are inconsistent. I think he has a good enough arm and can read the defense fairly well, but his throws are affected by him thinking a bit too much and it affects his accuracy. However, as he becomes more comfortable in his position and with the knowledge that the coaches have his back, he will be difficult on defenses who have to keep track of all the receivers and watch out for his ability to run.
But also, Wright is significantly more comfortable in the pocket than Sullivan was. Wright looks like a quarterback who can run versus an athlete who sometimes throws the ball.

And I agree that it’s great that he’s not looking over his shoulder at who is behind him, for I think the first time in his career.
 
I think the issue with Wright is that he gets a little excited and that is why his throws are inconsistent. I think he has a good enough arm and can read the defense fairly well, but his throws are affected by him thinking a bit too much and it affects his accuracy. However, as he becomes more comfortable in his position and with the knowledge that the coaches have his back, he will be difficult on defenses who have to keep track of all the receivers and watch out for his ability to run.
I think you're right. One thing I kept thinking Saturday is, "why aren't there more designed runs for Wright?" I think that will be coming as defenses get better (this Friday?). This past Saturday seemed to be all about setting up that Wright is a passer first, and then we unleash hell when he starts running for 100 yards a game!
 
But also, Wright is significantly more comfortable in the pocket than Sullivan was. Wright looks like a quarterback who can run versus an athlete who sometimes throws the ball.

And I agree that it’s great that he’s not looking over his shoulder at who is behind him, for I think the first time in his career.
Related to this point, I think it was Jared Thomas (who I thought did an outstanding job on Saturday) who pointed out that Wright was doing a nice job of keeping his eyes downfield and not just taking off running at the first sign of pressure, which he commented was something the old Mike Wright would do too much. That was encouraging to hear and I think pretty darn accurate description of what I saw on Saturday.
 
Related to this point, I think it was Jared Thomas (who I thought did an outstanding job on Saturday) who pointed out that Wright was doing a nice job of keeping his eyes downfield and not just taking off running at the first sign of pressure, which he commented was something the old Mike Wright would do too much. That was encouraging to hear and I think pretty darn accurate description of what I saw on Saturday.

Gotta imagine that was drilled into his head all camp long; it paid dividends when he pulled up and made the nice throw to Gordon for a long gain.
 
I thought Wright was fine Saturday but could've been much better on putting the pass on the money. I don't expect perfection, but there were a few plays that were like three-yard gains or incompletions that a slightly better pass would've resulted in more yards. These aren't major things in Game One, but it's something to keep an eye on. My sense is he hurried a number of his throws, but as he gets more comfortable that will be better.
They are often the difference between winning and losing and so you have to hope that it is just first game jitters and gets cleaned up quickly
 
I think the issue with Wright is that he gets a little excited and that is why his throws are inconsistent. I think he has a good enough arm and can read the defense fairly well, but his throws are affected by him thinking a bit too much and it affects his accuracy. However, as he becomes more comfortable in his position and with the knowledge that the coaches have his back, he will be difficult on defenses who have to keep track of all the receivers and watch out for his ability to run.
I thought he was fine. What I expected. My concern is the high throws may get Kirtz and company killed out there as they stretch to bring in the ball.
 
I was hoping for more of a successful coming out party for a new look offense, but I am biased by memories of sitting in the stands for the 2000 opener against NIU where we exploded on the scene and everything went right with an easy 35 points. However, that was with a seasoned offensive minded head coach, a new but more experienced OC (who I believe had already worked with RW), QB who’d been in the system a year already and an NFL quality RB. I think Lujan is still figuring out his personnel and what he can do with them.
 
I was hoping for more of a successful coming out party for a new look offense, but I am biased by memories of sitting in the stands for the 2000 opener against NIU where we exploded on the scene and everything went right with an easy 35 points. However, that was with a seasoned offensive minded head coach, a new but more experienced OC (who I believe had already worked with RW), QB who’d been in the system a year already and an NFL quality RB. I think Lujan is still figuring out his personnel and what he can do with them.
Yes, Wilson and Walker had been coaching together for a decade by that point.
 
I was hoping for more of a successful coming out party for a new look offense, but I am biased by memories of sitting in the stands for the 2000 opener against NIU where we exploded on the scene and everything went right with an easy 35 points. However, that was with a seasoned offensive minded head coach, a new but more experienced OC (who I believe had already worked with RW), QB who’d been in the system a year already and an NFL quality RB. I think Lujan is still figuring out his personnel and what he can do with them.
Touchdown, Eric Worley!
 
I thought Wright was fine Saturday but could've been much better on putting the pass on the money. I don't expect perfection, but there were a few plays that were like three-yard gains or incompletions that a slightly better pass would've resulted in more yards. These aren't major things in Game One, but it's something to keep an eye on. My sense is he hurried a number of his throws, but as he gets more comfortable that will be better.
He was definitely high on some sideline routes. Do that over the middle and you get picked.

There were two shots downfield where the pocket got pushed in, and he was not able to follow through. Those throws were rainbows that fortunately veered out of bounds or away from defenders.

He threaded the needle a few times. They were good, lower throws. He is certainly not afraid to try to fit the ball into spots.
 
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I thought Wright was fine Saturday but could've been much better on putting the pass on the money. I don't expect perfection, but there were a few plays that were like three-yard gains or incompletions that a slightly better pass would've resulted in more yards. These aren't major things in Game One, but it's something to keep an eye on. My sense is he hurried a number of his throws, but as he gets more comfortable that will be better.
And he didn't throw an interception.
 
He was definitely high on some sideline routes. Do that over the middle and you get picked.

There were two shots downfield where the pocket got pushed in, and he was not able to follow through. Those throws were rainbows that fortunately veered out of bounds or away from defenders.

He threaded the needle a few times. They were good, lower throws. He is certainly not afraid to try to fit the ball into spots.
The lake effect?
 
Komolafe looked fine in limited snaps. Himon needs the ball in space.

I don’t recall a single RB screen called in Saturday.
Thought I remembered at least one screen call that ended up a broken play. Couldn't tell if Himon was in the mix. Or my Halfzeihmers is just progressing to the full boat deal on both counts.
 
Another point is that Miami OH had a very strong defense last year, 7th in FBS in scoring D and 26th in total D, and I thought they returned quite a bit. So a legitimate test for our new offense.
 
I thought he was fine. What I expected. My concern is the high throws may get Kirtz and company killed out there as they stretch to bring in the ball.
As he explained it, he got a little excited at times. I believe it was because it was his first game with a new team, a new playbook, a new school, and a new field. I expect he will be a calmer as the season progresses. He will not turn into Justin Fields (college days) but he is that true dual threat that our team really needs.

I really like the first play. I bet Miami was expecting a run heavy offense and so Lujan called for a pass that told Miami that we would be unpredictable. The team said in the press conference that the first play was known for two weeks. I like that.
 
As he explained it, he got a little excited at times. I believe it was because it was his first game with a new team, a new playbook, a new school, and a new field. I expect he will be a calmer as the season progresses. He will not turn into Justin Fields (college days) but he is that true dual threat that our team really needs.

I really like the first play. I bet Miami was expecting a run heavy offense and so Lujan called for a pass that told Miami that we would be unpredictable. The team said in the press conference that the first play was known for two weeks. I like that.
I agree, when the first play was not a simple 'Dive Right" we knew Jake was gone, and there is a new sheriff in town! It seems like 80% of NU's drives under Mike were begun with a simple run up the middle. Everyone knew it was coming and we would get 1-2 yards. Hopefully, the O will "click" this week! Go Cats!
 
I agree, when the first play was not a simple 'Dive Right" we knew Jake was gone, and there is a new sheriff in town! It seems like 80% of NU's drives under Mike were begun with a simple run up the middle. Everyone knew it was coming and we would get 1-2 yards. Hopefully, the O will "click" this week! Go Cats!
Obviously I had to go down the rabbit hole on this one. In 46 games, there were 29 rushes and 13 passes on 1st&10, 1 rush on 1st&5, and 3 passes on 1st&15. 21 of the 30 rushes went for 4 or fewer yards. 10 of 13 pass plays on 1st&10 and 2 of 3 passes on 1st&15 were completed, 3 of which went for 4 yards or fewer.

So we ran 65% of the time, with a success rate of 30%, and passed 35% of the time, with a success rate of 56%. 2 of the 9 successful run plays were jet sweeps by Henning, both coming in 2023, so the success rate was 25% on all other run plays. Only 6 of 46 plays went for a first down (13%). 2022 was the most lopsided season, with 10 runs (30% success rate) to 2 passes (50% success rate),

Here's every first play under Jake:

2020 (6 rush, 33% success, 1 fumble lost; 3 pass, 67% success)
Maryland - NU25; Rush, Bowser for no gain
Iowa - NU25; Pass, Ramsey to Lees, incomplete
Nebraska - NU20; Pass, Ramsey to Raine, complete for 17 yards
Purdue - NU25; Rush, Bowser for 4 yards
Wisconsin - WIS46; False start followed by Pass, Ramsey to Lees, complete for 12 yards
MSU - NU40; Rush, Anderson for 8 yards
Illinois - NU02; Rush, Anderson for 3 yards, fumble lost
OSU - NU25; Rush, Porter for 13 yards
Auburn - NU25; Rush, Porter for 2 yards

2021 (6 rush, 33% success; 6 pass, 50% success, 1 fumble lost)
MSU - NU35; Rush, Tyus for 1 yard
Indiana St. - NU25; Rush, Hull for 12 yards
Duke - NU25; False start followed by Pass, Johnson to Lang, incomplete
Ohio - NU20; Rush, Hull for 4 yards
Nebraska - NU25; Pass, Hilinski to Hull, complete for 7 yards
Rutgers - NU25; Rush, Hull for 2 yards
Michigan - NU25; Pass, Hilinski to Washington, complete for 29 yards
Minnesota - NU25; False start followed by Pass, Hilinski to Washington, complete for 5 yards, fumble lost and returned for touchdown
Iowa - NU25; Pass, Marty to Jefferson, incomplete
Wisconsin - NU08; Pass, Marty to Robinson, complete for 8 yards
Purdue - NU20; Offsides followed by Rush, Hull for 4 yards
Illinois - NU02; Rush, Hull for 3 yards

2022 (10 rush, 30% success; 2 pass, 50% success)
Nebraska - NU25; Rush, Hull up the middle for no gain
Duke - NU25; Rush, Hull up the middle for 10 yards
S. Illinois - NU32; Rush, Hull up the middle for 8 yards
Miami OH - NU10; Rush, Hull to the left for 5 yards
PSU - NU25; Rush, Hull up the middle for 1 yard
Wisconsin - NU20; Rush, Hilinski to the right for 3 yards
Maryland - NU44; Rush, Hull to the left for 2 yards
Iowa - NU25; Pass, Sullivan short right to Gordon, incomplete
OSU - NU40; Rush, Hull to the left for 3 yards
Minnesota - NU38; Rush, Sullivan to the right for 2 yards
Purdue - NU33; Rush, Hull up the middle for a loss of 4 yards
Illinois - NU11; Pass, Freeman screen left to Hull, complete for 8 yards

2023 (8 rush, 37% success, 1 fumble; 5 pass, 40% success)
Rutgers - NU25; Pass, Bryant short right to Porter, complete for 6 yards
UTEP - NU29; Rush, Porter up the middle for 7 yards
Duke - NU25; Rush, Henning jet sweep left for 9 yards
Minnesota - NU25; Rush, Porter up the middle for 2 yards
PSU - PSU11; Pass, Bryant short middle to Gordon, complete for no gain
Howard - NU25; Rush, Porter up the middle for 3 yards
Nebraska - NEB44; Rush, Sullivan up the middle for a loss of 2 yards, fumble recovered
Maryland - NU27; Rush, Henning jet sweep left for 11 yards
Iowa - NU12; Pass, Sullivan WR screen left to Henning, complete for loss of 1 yard
Wisconsin - NU21; Pass, Bryant WR screen left to Kirtz, complete for 6 yards
Purdue - NU47; Rush, Porter to the right for no gain
Illinois - NU30; Rush, Porter to the left for 4 yards
Utah - NU25; Pass, Bryant WR screen right to Henning, complete for 1 yard
 
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Obviously I had to go down the rabbit hole on this one. In 46 games, there were 29 rushes and 13 passes on 1st&10, 1 rush on 1st&5, and 3 passes on 1st&15. 21 of the 30 rushes went for 4 or fewer yards. 10 of 13 pass plays on 1st&10 and 2 of 3 passes on 1st&15 were completed, 3 of which went for 4 yards or fewer.

So we ran 65% of the time, with a success rate of 30%, and passed 35% of the time, with a success rate of 56%. 2 of the 9 successful run plays were jet sweeps by Henning, both coming in 2023, so the success rate was 25% on all other run plays. Only 6 of 46 plays went for a first down (13%). 2022 was the most lopsided season, with 10 runs (30% success rate) to 2 passes (50% success rate),

Here's every first play under Jake:

2020 (6 rush, 33% success, 1 fumble lost; 3 pass, 67% success)
Maryland - NU25; Rush, Bowser for no gain
Iowa - NU25; Pass, Ramsey to Lees, incomplete
Nebraska - NU20; Pass, Ramsey to Raine, complete for 17 yards
Purdue - NU25; Rush, Bowser for 4 yards
Wisconsin - WIS46; False start followed by Pass, Ramsey to Lees, complete for 12 yards
MSU - NU40; Rush, Anderson for 8 yards
Illinois - NU02; Rush, Anderson for 3 yards, fumble lost
OSU - NU25; Rush, Porter for 13 yards
Auburn - NU25; Rush, Porter for 2 yards

2021 (6 rush, 33% success; 6 pass, 50% success, 1 fumble lost)
MSU - NU35; Rush, Tyus for 1 yard
Indiana St. - NU25; Rush, Hull for 12 yards
Duke - NU25; False start followed by Pass, Johnson to Lang, incomplete
Ohio - NU20; Rush, Hull for 4 yards
Nebraska - NU25; Pass, Hilinski to Hull, complete for 7 yards
Rutgers - NU25; Rush, Hull for 2 yards
Michigan - NU25; Pass, Hilinski to Washington, complete for 29 yards
Minnesota - NU25; False start followed by Pass, Hilinski to Washington, complete for 5 yards, fumble lost and returned for touchdown
Iowa - NU25; Pass, Marty to Jefferson, incomplete
Wisconsin - NU08; Pass, Marty to Robinson, complete for 8 yards
Purdue - NU20; Offsides followed by Rush, Hull for 4 yards
Illinois - NU02; Rush, Hull for 3 yards

2022 (10 rush, 30% success; 2 pass, 50% success)
Nebraska - NU25; Rush, Hull up the middle for no gain
Duke - NU25; Rush, Hull up the middle for 10 yards
S. Illinois - NU32; Rush, Hull up the middle for 8 yards
Miami OH - NU10; Rush, Hull to the left for 5 yards
PSU - NU25; Rush, Hull up the middle for 1 yard
Wisconsin - NU20; Rush, Hilinski to the right for 3 yards
Maryland - NU44; Rush, Hull to the left for 2 yards
Iowa - NU25; Pass, Sullivan short right to Gordon, incomplete
OSU - NU40; Rush, Hull to the left for 3 yards
Minnesota - NU38; Rush, Sullivan to the right for 2 yards
Purdue - NU33; Rush, Hull up the middle for a loss of 4 yards
Illinois - NU11; Pass, Freeman screen left to Hull, complete for 8 yards

2023 (8 rush, 37% success, 1 fumble; 5 pass, 40% success)
Rutgers - NU25; Pass, Bryant short right to Porter, complete for 6 yards
UTEP - NU29; Rush, Porter up the middle for 7 yards
Duke - NU25; Rush, Henning jet sweep left for 9 yards
Minnesota - NU25; Rush, Porter up the middle for 2 yards
PSU - PSU11; Pass, Bryant short middle to Gordon, complete for no gain
Howard - NU25; Rush, Porter up the middle for 3 yards
Nebraska - NEB44; Rush, Sullivan up the middle for a loss of 2 yards, fumble recovered
Maryland - NU27; Rush, Henning jet sweep left for 11 yards
Iowa - NU12; Pass, Sullivan WR screen left to Henning, complete for loss of 1 yard
Wisconsin - NU21; Pass, Bryant WR screen left to Kirtz, complete for 6 yards
Purdue - NU47; Rush, Porter to the right for no gain
Illinois - NU30; Rush, Porter to the left for 4 yards
Utah - NU25; Pass, Bryant WR screen right to Henning, complete for 1 yard
This reminds me how good Evan Hull was. Lousy teams, lousy coordinator, still excelled
 
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