247 posted 2024 final top 150 and..
- Thread starter jensberg
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Obviously super subjective and unreliable but happy to be in that range.
For perspective - 24/7 ratings in the Collins Era:
2023: Overall Rank 81. Jordan Clayton 218th, Parker Strauss 222nd, Blake Barkley NR
2022: Overall Rank 131. Luke Hunger 176, Nick Martinelli NR
2021: Overall Rank 36. Casey Simmons 130th, Brooks Barnhizer 145th, Julian Roper 224th
2020: Overall Rank 87. Ty Berry 148th, Matt Nicholson 202nd
2019: Overall Rank 54. Robbie Beran 59th, Jared Coleman-Jones 182nd, Boo Buie NR
2018: Overall Rank 33rd. Miller Kopp 86th, Pete Nance 134th, Ryan Young NR, Ryan Greer, NR
2017: Overall Rank 133rd. Anthony Gaines, NR
2016: Overall Rank: 55th. Rapolas Ivanauskas 148th, Barrett Benson 176th, Isiah Brown 235th
2015: Overall Rank: 65th. Aaron Falzon 130th, Jordan Ash NR, Dererk Pardon NR
2014. Overall Rank 49th. Vic Law 90th, Bryant McIntosh 146th, Gavin Skelly NR, Scott Lindsay NR
To clarificationcat's point - super subjective and unreliable. But overall, it's a nice thing to have guys rated in the "Top 150" - however, if they're unranked they still could make a contribution, or in the case of Boo Buie, get sized up for a statue.
2023: Overall Rank 81. Jordan Clayton 218th, Parker Strauss 222nd, Blake Barkley NR
2022: Overall Rank 131. Luke Hunger 176, Nick Martinelli NR
2021: Overall Rank 36. Casey Simmons 130th, Brooks Barnhizer 145th, Julian Roper 224th
2020: Overall Rank 87. Ty Berry 148th, Matt Nicholson 202nd
2019: Overall Rank 54. Robbie Beran 59th, Jared Coleman-Jones 182nd, Boo Buie NR
2018: Overall Rank 33rd. Miller Kopp 86th, Pete Nance 134th, Ryan Young NR, Ryan Greer, NR
2017: Overall Rank 133rd. Anthony Gaines, NR
2016: Overall Rank: 55th. Rapolas Ivanauskas 148th, Barrett Benson 176th, Isiah Brown 235th
2015: Overall Rank: 65th. Aaron Falzon 130th, Jordan Ash NR, Dererk Pardon NR
2014. Overall Rank 49th. Vic Law 90th, Bryant McIntosh 146th, Gavin Skelly NR, Scott Lindsay NR
To clarificationcat's point - super subjective and unreliable. But overall, it's a nice thing to have guys rated in the "Top 150" - however, if they're unranked they still could make a contribution, or in the case of Boo Buie, get sized up for a statue.
He was unrated in the 2019 class along side fellow unrateds Tosan Evboumwan and Konrad Kiszka. Evboumwan would be a mainstay of that '23 Sweet 16 squad, and valiantly logged 24 pts on 18 shots, 6 reb, 9 assists and 1 steal vs 1 TO in that loss against Creighton and would net 8 kenpom game mvp honors that season.
Not the point. Buie was our best player ever and he was ranked in the 300’s at best. Odds of consistent success with a bunch of guys that low are slim, though.
So looking at history, no correlation between goofy rankings and on court performance.
Pardon NR?
Boo NR?
Barnhizer << Kopp?
These rankings are useless except for maybe the top 20 or so. The rest are a crap shoot.
Its interesting to look at NU's top 150 recruits.
In 2021-22, Casey Simmons #130 got opportunities right away, starting 7 games, playing 10+ minutes whereas Brooks Barnhizer #145 was glued to the bench. Julian Roper #224 got 15 starts and about 20 minutes on that same team.
In 2020-21 Ty Berry #148 got about 13 minutes right away. Nicholson #202 sat the bench for 2 full seasons.
In 2019-20 Robbie Beran #59 (our top recruit ever?) started 18 games (19 mpg) and was given every opportunity in every game of every season afterwards. Unranked Boo Buie started 19 games and played 25 mpg..
In 2018-19, Miller Kopp #86 started 19 games and Pete Nance #134 played about 12 minutes per game off the bench. Unranked Ryan Young was redshirted.
In 2017-18 Anthony Gaines was unranked and our only freshman, he got 18+ minutes immediately.
In 2016-17 Rapolas Ivanauskas #148 was redshirted (possibly due to injury). He is playing in Japan in the same league as former Penn Stater John Harrar. Barret Benson #176 and Isiah Brown #225 played 8 and 15 minutes per game, respectively.
in 2015-16 Aaron Falzon #130 was a starter right away. Unranked Dererk Pardon was supposed to redshirt, but played due to Alex Olah's injury, then started for the next 3 seasons.
In 2014-15 Vic Law #90 and Bryant McIntosh #146 both started right away. Unranked Scotty Lindsey played 15 minutes per game with 10 starts. Unranked Gavin Skelly played 7 minutes per game.
So a couple things... the top-rated guy is going to get playing time, if he is Top 150.
The last 2 seasons we had no recruits in the Top 150. The Gragg ultimatum led to our least-regarded recruiting class other than the Class of 2017, with nobody in the top 200. (In the 2017 recruiting season we offered 18 players, all 3 and 4 stars, except for Anthony Gaines, who we got. 9 of the guys we offered were top 100, 5 more were top 150)
At Northwestern, when you have a freshman starting, its going to be a difficult season.
In 2021-22, Casey Simmons #130 got opportunities right away, starting 7 games, playing 10+ minutes whereas Brooks Barnhizer #145 was glued to the bench. Julian Roper #224 got 15 starts and about 20 minutes on that same team.
In 2020-21 Ty Berry #148 got about 13 minutes right away. Nicholson #202 sat the bench for 2 full seasons.
In 2019-20 Robbie Beran #59 (our top recruit ever?) started 18 games (19 mpg) and was given every opportunity in every game of every season afterwards. Unranked Boo Buie started 19 games and played 25 mpg..
In 2018-19, Miller Kopp #86 started 19 games and Pete Nance #134 played about 12 minutes per game off the bench. Unranked Ryan Young was redshirted.
In 2017-18 Anthony Gaines was unranked and our only freshman, he got 18+ minutes immediately.
In 2016-17 Rapolas Ivanauskas #148 was redshirted (possibly due to injury). He is playing in Japan in the same league as former Penn Stater John Harrar. Barret Benson #176 and Isiah Brown #225 played 8 and 15 minutes per game, respectively.
in 2015-16 Aaron Falzon #130 was a starter right away. Unranked Dererk Pardon was supposed to redshirt, but played due to Alex Olah's injury, then started for the next 3 seasons.
In 2014-15 Vic Law #90 and Bryant McIntosh #146 both started right away. Unranked Scotty Lindsey played 15 minutes per game with 10 starts. Unranked Gavin Skelly played 7 minutes per game.
So a couple things... the top-rated guy is going to get playing time, if he is Top 150.
The last 2 seasons we had no recruits in the Top 150. The Gragg ultimatum led to our least-regarded recruiting class other than the Class of 2017, with nobody in the top 200. (In the 2017 recruiting season we offered 18 players, all 3 and 4 stars, except for Anthony Gaines, who we got. 9 of the guys we offered were top 100, 5 more were top 150)
At Northwestern, when you have a freshman starting, its going to be a difficult season.
With regards to Barnhizer v Simmons - there seemed to be backup minutes at the 3 for the taking (when Chase Audige sat either due to injuries or his 4.0 Fouls Committed/40), and Simmons appeared to had won that challenge. However, if I recall correctly, Brooks was "battling injuries" that year, and that hindered his ability to win the backup spot. He was able to turn that disappointing frosh year into a hard work summer that fueled his leap sophomore year. However, I wonder if Barnzo was 100%, he may have grabbed that backup spot.
I wouldn’t have necessarily thought his game would translate to college. He didn’t have a lot of scholarship offers, so most college coaches weren’t sold either. He’s a pretty unique player. Fortunate it worked out for us.
He was originally committed to Elon and only ended up on our radar because his brother was a walk-on here. Don't think it's really that surprising that he wasn't ranked at all.
The coaches generally agreed, no significant offers. He was a true diamond in the rough ID by CCC and his slightly goofy-footed game has developed as a real credit to him.
It still amazes me that Zach Edey was ranked 436th in his year coming out of high school and the #76 center and only got 3 offers (Baylor, W Kentucky, and Purdue). He also wasn’t that great a player as a freshman. So judging talent and potential can be really difficult.
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Martinelli was unranked because most guys sign before they play their senior season.
Nick signed with Elon.
Then he grew a few inches, put on some muscle and exploded as a high school senior.
He went from "nobody" to Top 5 in state of Illinois after the college recruiting was already over.
But when the recruiting is over, the ratings services move on.
Then NU lucked out, (and it was total luck) when the Elon coaches left and Nick was allowed to re-open his recruiting.
It was a no-brainer to get him. We had roster space and most other major teams didn't.
Justin Mullins had the same sort of high school trajectory. Not noteworthy as a junior, ends up committing to Denver. Then goes out and skyrockets as a senior. Plays one season at Denver and Collins recruits him.
Its a great way to pick up solid players.
I had initially thought the rankings were referring to our portal adds, not HS recruits. Anyone know what Langborg's portal rank was when we got himlast year?
The lesson here is you take rankings with a grain of salt. The exception to me are guys in the top 50 (estimating) or so. Those guys are more likely to be really good players, but after that it becomes an inexact science. So many players that are peaking and developing at different times, rates, etc. It makes it nearly impossible to put together national player ranking.
At this point, I trust Collins and his staff to identify good players. No one hits at 100%, but they've shown they know how to identify players that may be a little under the radar and then help them develop into good/great players.
At this point, I trust Collins and his staff to identify good players. No one hits at 100%, but they've shown they know how to identify players that may be a little under the radar and then help them develop into good/great players.
For me, the lesson is that you can find great players with low or no rankings but your odds are better at finding rotation players if you recruit more players around 150 and below. Simmons was a bust. Hard to say if Rap would have contributed if he stayed. Kopp did not live up to expectations but he would have been fine coming off the bench. Same with Beran and a pre-injury Falzon. And Law, Barnhizer, McIntosh, Berry and Nance all became better than average players. I think the floor is generally higher for the rated guys. I assume the coaches don’t pay attention to the rankings at all.
This may be veering off topic a bit, but this thread does raise questions for me:
During the Collins era, there's been an affinity with the Chicago Catholic Schools from the OG class with Vic Law (St. Rita) and Scottie Lindsey (Fenwick), as well as Jordan Ash (Fenwick), and the newest - Angelo Ciaravino (Mt. Carmel)
There has also been mini affinities with Ohio and Indiana
However, one affinity is interesting to me is the one with players who graduated from New England Prepatory School Athletic Council programs:
- Do coaches pay attention to these rankings - or more specifically, does Collins and his staff pay attention to these rankings?
- How does the staff identify players?
- Has there been any patterns there? Are there particular recruiting "hotbeds" for Collins?
During the Collins era, there's been an affinity with the Chicago Catholic Schools from the OG class with Vic Law (St. Rita) and Scottie Lindsey (Fenwick), as well as Jordan Ash (Fenwick), and the newest - Angelo Ciaravino (Mt. Carmel)
There has also been mini affinities with Ohio and Indiana
- OH: Gavin Skelly (Westlake), Dererk Pardon (Villa Angela-St Joes Cleveland), Pete Nance (Revere Akron)
- IN: Bryant McIntosh (Greensburg), Brooks Barnhizer (Lafayette-Jefferson) and now KJ Windham (Ben Davis-Indianapolis).
However, one affinity is interesting to me is the one with players who graduated from New England Prepatory School Athletic Council programs:
- Gould Academy - Boo Buie
- Bradford Christian - Jordan Clayton
- Brewster Academy - Rapolas Ivanauskas
- Northfield Mount Hermon - Luke Hunger, Aaron Falzon, Ryan Greer
- New Hampton - Anthony Gaines, AJ Turner
- Milton Academy - Casey Simmons
This got me thinking about if this can be quantified, and sure enough, Torvik has a tool to play around with. I looked at the following data from the past 16 years:
Freshmen in high-major conferences who played >25 games and >50% of available minutes, broken down (roughly) into:
5-star recruits (roughly 15-25 per year)
4-star top-50 (25-35/year)
remainder of 4-stars (~65-85/year)
As far as value over replacement player goes, the data looked like this (warning, very nerdy):
5-star players (n=221) - PRPG! average 3.2, min 0.4, max 6.9, IQR 2.3-4, trend line showing that a higher national recruiting rank, the better the output with an R-squared value of 0.1334 (not great, but it's something).
4-star top-50 (n=161) - PRPG! average 2.5, min -0.1, max 7 (Trae Young, giant outlier), IQR 1.6-3.2, trend line showing very slight inclination towards higher rank = higher output, but R-squared is only 0.0455.
remainder of 4-star players (n=236) - PRPG! average 1.9, min -1.1, max 4.7, IQR 1.3-2.5, trend line showing virtually no relation between rank and output, R-squared is only 0.0004.
So to conclude from this, for 5-star players, somewhere between 60-90% of freshmen meet the criteria, have the highest average, the highest floor, and nearly the highest ceiling. For 4-star top-50 players, somewhere between 33-44% meet the criteria, have a lower average, lower floor, but there are still outlier players who break out and become stars. For the remainder of 4-star players, somewhere between 20-25% meet the criteria, have the lowest average, and while the floor and IQR numbers aren't that different from the top-50 4-stars, there are no players who break out and become stars on the level of the 5-stars or outlier top-50 4-stars.
All of this is to say that the data backs up the feeling of once you go beyond the top 25-50 players in a class, it's almost entirely a crapshoot as to what you're getting. I didn't look at sophomore year and beyond, because then you start getting into the ability of coaching staffs to develop players which adds confounding variables.
All this to say, I’m a genius.
…actually you are (and I am not). I have no idea what you just did, but thanks!
I
understood the last paragraph. Sounds good, I need the non-NU grad version next time.
I think your filtering method probably undermines your effort.
Why separate out the 4 stars from the 4.5 stars from the 5 stars?
Essentially you are chopping a larger dataset that probably shows a trend into 3 separate datasets, each of which is (much) less likely to show a trend.
In other words, comparing 5 stars to each other will look somewhat random, but comparing the 4 stars to the 5 stars should show correlation between rating and performance.
Not sure BPM wouldn't be worth a look (instead of PRPG).
And of course by filtering players out because they didn't play enough, you're injecting more noise. Not sure how to address that... Duke has a bunch of 5-stars. They can't all play. Kansas State may have one 5 star and he plays and performs. The "elite" programs recruit 5 stars so their opponents can't have them. So if Jabari Fivestar goes to Duke and sits on the bench, that doesn't mean he was overrated compared to Kwame Fourstar who goes to Northwestern and plays right away.
Slightly related (or unrelated) to the ratings of NU recruits is a question about the Indiana Pacers player Aaron Nesmith, who so far is doing the best work in guarding the Knicks star Jalen Brunson. He played at Vanderbilt which he chose over offers from Florida, Virginia Tech, Harvard and Columbia. Since he was getting Ivy offers, I'm assuming he would have cleared NU admissions. Were we ever in the conversation for this excellent player? A big whiff if we were not.
Nesmith was the number 69 (nice) player in the country, and the number 15 small forward, per rivals. As we’ve learned here (and intuited previously), 1-20 are probably good, 21-50 might be good, and 51-500 is a total crapshoot.
NU was not involved with Nesmith, but did get a future pro that they preferred: Miller Kopp was the #66 player in the country, and the number 14 small forward.
Win some, lose some. 🤷♂️
Nance, Young, and then Greer (instead of Lathon) comprised the rest of the class.
Interesting. Hindsight is 20/20 but we lost badly on this one.
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That is not an accurate statement whatsoever.
It isn't true to begin with, but it also isn't what Cappy tried to imply.
And he only looked at freshmen playing their first year.
Need a new study.
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Mostly because this was what I was able to do in the middle of the work day? I put the game and minutes requirements in there to remove small sample size numbers, and there's not much I can do to measure the performance of 5-stars who don't see the floor as freshmen.
Looking at BPM, the only difference is that there are a lot more high outliers for 5-stars (Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, Michael Beasley, Kevin Love, Karl-Anthony Towns) and not so many for the top-50 4-stars (D'Angelo Russell). Otherwise the same trends apply as seen in the PRPG!.
I did look at the trendline for all 4-star players and above, and the correlation on both PRPG! and BPM is stronger than the smaller subsets, though not by much.
Obviously this was just a (not so) quick and dirty look at the stats. My takeaways are that 5-stars are more likely to see the floor as freshmen than 4-stars (top-50 and otherwise), and of those that see the floor and play significant time, there is a higher likelihood that recruiting rank correlates to output with 5-stars than with 4-stars. With 4-stars, you are just as likely to get a good player or bad player whether their rank is 25 or 150, but there is a better chance of getting a 5-star level player if the 4-star is in the top 50.
