How/Why did someone there place Mark Smith as 100% NU?
http://northwestern.247sports.com/Season/2017-Basketball/InstitutionPredictions
http://northwestern.247sports.com/Season/2017-Basketball/InstitutionPredictions
Does the 247 Crystal Ball Mean Anything re: Mark Smith
- Thread starter EyeCat
- Start date
Not necessarily. They state that the "expert" that is making the prediction (Tyler Hicks) has a 70% accuracy rate (based on past performance). However he does it, he seems to know what he is doing (if the cited accuracy figure is correct).
Actually, there's a decent correlation between the Crystal Ball predictions and reality, but you have to dive into the details, which most of us are not willing to do.
The 100% prediction doesn't mean that the predictor is 100% confident. It just means that 100% of the experts picked him to go to NU. With Smith, only one expert has weighed in, so the 100% doesn't mean a lot.
The best use of that site is to look at experts who have been accurate in the past. This one guy apparently has been, but his numbers don't say whether that's because he often makes a prediction after it's fairly clear where a kid will go, or if his predictions are made earlier.
They say that the one expert has a 70% accuracy rate. If true, it does mean something.
The accuracy rate doesn't mean much since (I think) they can change their prediction up to the last minute with no penalty.
I don't know all the details, but they should know that people can easily compare actual results vs their predictions. And if their predictions prove highly inaccurate that doesn't help their site's credibility.
All I know is that he is predicting NU,he is right 70% of the time (according to them).
If the accuracy is true, it's pretty high, because a given athlete may be considering many schools even among the finalists, not just 2. If it were only 2, you could pick either one and would be right 50% of the time.
I dove into the numbers in the Fall and learned that a coin flip is about as good as the expert predictions for NU. There's also incredible movement a couple days before a recruit announces when experts change their predictions after learning where a kid is likely to go.
With that said, they were correct about '17 because none had NU as the lead on any recruits.
In regards to Smith, the lone expert has had NU as the choice since he reopened his recruiting. Not that that means anything.
With that said, they were correct about '17 because none had NU as the lead on any recruits.
In regards to Smith, the lone expert has had NU as the choice since he reopened his recruiting. Not that that means anything.
The prediction was made the first week of February. A lot has changed since then. If it were a fresher prediction, it may have some probative value if based on some kind of hard intel. But it's not, we have quotes this week from the player himself, and so I wouldn't count on it as a reason to say he'll come to NU.
An ascendant program, a suddenly rabid fan base, a stable coaching situation, state of the art facilities and the best damn school in the Big Ten? Now that might do the job.
What has changed since February seems to favor Northwestern, right? The Cinderella NCAA run, with all the favorable media attention that came with it, should help NU's case with recruits. And the coaching changes elsewhere probably do too.
As of today he is predicting Butler......just checked.
Right, this is another criticism of the whole Crystal Ball concept. Their analysts shouldn't be able to change them! Report what you want to report when it's solid enough to report. When you're wrong, be transparent; we're not talking about matters of national security here. The way it is now is a prime example of random guesses crossbred with groupthink, which is enough to make bozos like us chat about it. It's not enough to be taken seriously but for a few of their people who actually seem to have an inside bead on actual news.
Also, Feli, I agree: what has changed since then would seem to fall in our favor. But you never know what a kid wants. Hopefully he decides that NU offers everything, the best of all worlds.
It means he put out a list that included Butler as a school he is considering and Butler is the only team on his list still in the NCAA.
Honestly, if you go to his twitter feed, every article in Southern Illinois says its between Missouri and Illinois, which makes sense. Sorry, but I find it hard to believe that if Collins is still recruiting him, that NU and all the other schools are calling him daily as well. I would just let it play out through April 12. Quite a year for a kid who blew up. Reminds of Charlie Moore a few years ago who committed to Cal and Martin 2 years ago ... now Martin is gone.
Butler appears to have four commits with up to six roster spots opening up. I say up to because one or more of these could be walk-ons. Unclear by looking at their roster. So, it seems feasible. Butler is a great program these days. That said, I'll be a bit frustrated if we keep losing highly rated IL kids to out of state programs such as Noel Eastern and Justin Smith.
Anyway, I said earlier that it meant nothing when the ball said NU... why should that be any different now?
Anyway, I said earlier that it meant nothing when the ball said NU... why should that be any different now?
Charlie Moore committed to Memphis originally - when their coach left for Georgia tech he went with cal probably sometime last summer
I think this idea of keeping kids in state is out-dated. Edwardsville is 5 hours away, why would NU be any better for him, his family friends etc than any other program just from the idea of being close by? To me, once your more than 100 miles or so away from the school it's not like you can sell it that your family and friends can just come to every home game, beyond 100 miles it becomes a road trip. To me the bigger selling point is the big ten network, with which pretty much every game is broadcast in some form. Now smith and eastern, I agree with you on, proximity is a big selling point
Fair point on travel times. I was actually thinking more about awareness of NU. A kid in downstate IL likely knows about Northwestern, our academic reputation at least. Outside of the Midwest, many people are still not aware of NU. I live in Seattle and can confirm that outside of the white collar, coroporate type circles, people have no idea about Northwestern.
Probably
Likely just realized that won't be enough seats for his family and friends to watch him play in the re-done W-R.
Edwardsville is four hours. Tops. Bloomington from Evanston is 2.5 hours. Then Springfield is another 45 minutes. Then straight down to Edwardsville.
You can do it faster if you get on the road early before Smokey wakes up.
The train is also a nice, slowwww option. Bottle a wine, some snacks and the Ipad. But then you wake up in Chicago a little shit faced without a car.
I've done so many roundtrips to St. Louis I can't count.
Probably
Likely just realized that won't be enough seats f
Actually we shouldn't be recruiting against the likes of Butler and usually don't. There arena seats around 9, 000 and the schools we should be competing against for recruits are ND, Illinois, Michigan, Purdue, Indiana, Io-a and yes even DePaul all have much larger arenas. Sorry but a high school sized place to play will not impress future recruits.
Right... when I compare offer lists of our recruits, the first thing I do is look at their home stadium's seating capacity.
That's not even a B-level troll.
Sorry but just remember at back when Carmody was embarrassed to bring recruits into an antiquated W-R. Well recruits do like a large arena filled with fans and they will compare a 6.800 seat gym with much larger facilities at ND, DePaul, Illinois and the rest of the Big Ten. "Build It and They Will Come".
Carmody was embarrassed to recruit. Period.
We are roughly the same size school as Villanova and we will have roughly the same size arena after both get their facelifts.
Of course, the cynic would say that's appropriate given that both schools lost to Wisconsin in March and qualified for the Round of 32.
But really ..... size of the arena doesn't seems highly appropriate. Villanova just won a national title. The key will be getting 6800 of OUR fans in there, rather than 5000 of ours and 3000 of the opposition.
Of course, the cynic would say that's appropriate given that both schools lost to Wisconsin in March and qualified for the Round of 32.
But really ..... size of the arena doesn't seems highly appropriate. Villanova just won a national title. The key will be getting 6800 of OUR fans in there, rather than 5000 of ours and 3000 of the opposition.
The CBS crew that worked the Purdue game said it was the loudest, most intense atmosphere they'd ever worked.
The new WR will be more intense with fans more on top of the court.
And to players and guests it will look like and feel like a modern palace.
Piss on the seat count if you want, but it's going to be beautiful and is a perfect fit for Northwestern.
And, for those recruits who prefer to go to a lesser academic school, not on a great lake, not in one of the most dynamic cities in the world.....all the best to you, young man.
The new WR will be more intense with fans more on top of the court.
And to players and guests it will look like and feel like a modern palace.
Piss on the seat count if you want, but it's going to be beautiful and is a perfect fit for Northwestern.
And, for those recruits who prefer to go to a lesser academic school, not on a great lake, not in one of the most dynamic cities in the world.....all the best to you, young man.
What in the world are you talking about. This thread is about mark smith who 24/7 now says is leaning towards butler. Stadium size shouldn't mean a damn thing, stadium /game-day experience, modern locker room and other amenities likely do have some influence. An intimate, loud environment is nothing to be ashamed of.
This is such a ridiculous discussion.
The Kennel at Gonzaga is 6000 seats strong. Some Zag friends I made this weekend are season ticket holders. They said it's basically STHs and students. And that it's packed and loud all the time. Do they have a problem recruiting players? Winning games? Maintaining high standards? And they're in the WCC, in Spokane.
I'd bet if we had a dynamic search function we could find examples of the Chicken Little crowd complaining that there are too many sections at Ryan Field and that we need to bulldoze the sections they tarp over. Can't win.
Precisely.
The complaints about arena capacity are from the crowd who thought that we could never recruit enough athletes to NU to make it to the NCAA because of our facilities. They were wrong then, and they are wrong now.
Recruits don't care about numbers. They care about atmosphere. We were already according to Jim Nantz one of the best atmosphere's he's ever been to in ANY sport. And we are about to get even better. A LOT better, most likely.
Sorry but the type of recruits NU is going after want to play in a big time arena and one that seats 6,800 isn't one. These kids have just played 4 years of high school; and walking into an empty W-R on a visit will remind them of high school all over again.
Sorry if the truth hurts. Facts are facts and other Div. I coaches are going to note the small, high school like gym in Evanston, while recruiting against Collins.
Yeah, and it will probably work as well as it does against Gonzaga (capacity 6,000 and best home court advantage in all of college basketball - 93% win rate) and Villanova (capacity 6,500).
Having an arena that is more than 5.5X the capacity of Cameron must be why Syracuse recruits 5.5X better and is 5.5X more successful than Duke. BTW, I grew up a Syracuse fan. Sitting in the dome on the third level sucks. Bring your binoculars. Just to see the jumbotron.
Last edited:
