Nance

[haywood jahblowme]

Young is better than Olah. Honestly I think Fr year Young is already better than Sr year Olah. Especially when you consider the competition of big men he has been matched up against in the B1G this year. Garza, Oturu, Cockburn, Watkins, J Smith, Tillman and that’s just scratching the surface.

pretty close to Olah sophomore year in year 1 - will be interesting to see how he develops

Ryan Young
games - min - pts - rbs - blks
26 - 26.1 - 9.3 - 6.1 - 0.4

pardon
games - min - pts - rbds - blks
1 - 20 - 16.6 - 6.7 - 4.2 - 0.6
2 - 28 - 30.8 - 8.6 - 8.0 - 1.8
3 - 32 - 32 - 11.3 - 7.1 - 1.8
4 - 32 - 32.7 - 14 - 7.8 - 0.9

olah years
games - min - pts - rbds - blks
1 - 31 - 22.2 - 6.1 - 4.1 - 0.9
2 - 33 - 29.5 - 9.1 - 5.2 - 1.8
3 - 32 - 29.4 - 11.7 -6.9 - 1.8
4 - 26 - 24 - 11.4 - 5.6 -1.4

i always thought Olah was more solid than he got credit for

olah compeition:
pu - hammons, sinpson, carroll, haas, swanigan,
iu - watford, elston, zeller, vonleh, mosquera-perea, thomas bryant, max bielfeldt
osu - amir williams, ravenel, anthony lee, trevor thompson, giddens
um - mcgary, jordan morgan, max beifeldt, donnal, doyle, wagner, teske
msu - schilling, payne, costello, davis
minn - mo walker, eliason, king, konate,
neb -vucetic, almeida, ayegba, jacob hammond,
ill - djimde, egwu, mav morgan, finke
iowa - olaseni, woodbury,
psu - borovnjak, ackerman, wisniewski, julian moore, watkins
mary - carter, cekovsky, dodd, bender, stone
rut - doorsman, diallo, kadeem jack, foreman,

 

[ricko654321]

pretty close to Olah sophomore year in year 1 - will be interesting to see how he develops

Ryan Young
games - min - pts - rbs - blks
26 - 26.1 - 9.3 - 6.1 - 0.4

pardon
games - min - pts - rbds - blks
1 - 20 - 16.6 - 6.7 - 4.2 - 0.6
2 - 28 - 30.8 - 8.6 - 8.0 - 1.8
3 - 32 - 32 - 11.3 - 7.1 - 1.8
4 - 32 - 32.7 - 14 - 7.8 - 0.9

olah years
games - min - pts - rbds - blks
1 - 31 - 22.2 - 6.1 - 4.1 - 0.9
2 - 33 - 29.5 - 9.1 - 5.2 - 1.8
3 - 32 - 29.4 - 11.7 -6.9 - 1.8
4 - 26 - 24 - 11.4 - 5.6 -1.4

i always thought Olah was more solid than he got credit for

olah compeition:
pu - hammons, sinpson, carroll, haas, swanigan,
iu - watford, elston, zeller, vonleh, mosquera-perea, thomas bryant, max bielfeldt
osu - amir williams, ravenel, anthony lee, trevor thompson, giddens
um - mcgary, jordan morgan, max beifeldt, donnal, doyle, wagner, teske
msu - schilling, payne, costello, davis
minn - mo walker, eliason, king, konate,
neb -vucetic, almeida, ayegba, jacob hammond,
ill - djimde, egwu, mav morgan, finke
iowa - olaseni, woodbury,
psu - borovnjak, ackerman, wisniewski, julian moore, watkins
mary - carter, cekovsky, dodd, bender, stone
rut - doorsman, diallo, kadeem jack, foreman,

Good data. The only thing I would add to it is that Young's FG% is 53.4% this year. Olah was a 48.7% career FG shooter, and 52.5% in his best year (his Sr year). So in terms of efficiency, Young is already slightly ahead of Olah's best year (though basically in line, not much different).

The other missing component to the #'s is defense. Olah was a bit bigger (ie tougher for bigs to get past), but perhaps slightly slower than Young. There aren't many great ways to measure overall defense. I checked the Box +/- on CBB reference (which are definitely imperfect for CBB, you find some weird results) and it has Young at +3.0 on O, +1.9 on D, +5.0 overall. Olah actually has better D BPM than that every year - in order 3.5 / 5.2 / 4.9 / 4.2. However, O BPM #'s are weaker (in order) -2.5 / -1.4 / +1.7 / +1.8. Combining those, you get +1.0 / +3.7 / +6.6 / +6.0. You are right, he turned out to be a fairly solid player.

So overall, maybe Sr year Olah was slightly better than Fr year Ryan Young. But I think he will continue to improve, and surpass "peak Olah".

 

[clarificationcat]

Good data. The only thing I would add to it is that Young's FG% is 53.4% this year. Olah was a 48.7% career FG shooter, and 52.5% in his best year (his Sr year). So in terms of efficiency, Young is already slightly ahead of Olah's best year (though basically in line, not much different).

The other missing component to the #'s is defense. Olah was a bit bigger (ie tougher for bigs to get past), but perhaps slightly slower than Young. There aren't many great ways to measure overall defense. I checked the Box +/- on CBB reference (which are definitely imperfect for CBB, you find some weird results) and it has Young at +3.0 on O, +1.9 on D, +5.0 overall. Olah actually has better D BPM than that every year - in order 3.5 / 5.2 / 4.9 / 4.2. However, O BPM #'s are weaker (in order) -2.5 / -1.4 / +1.7 / +1.8. Combining those, you get +1.0 / +3.7 / +6.6 / +6.0. You are right, he turned out to be a fairly solid player.

So overall, maybe Sr year Olah was slightly better than Fr year Ryan Young. But I think he will continue to improve, and surpass "peak Olah".

Good analysis. My only observation is that I think Olah was more than a bit bigger than Young. Olah was generally the biggest guy on the court. Young is maybe 6'9'' and not that wide. I think that if Young were Olah's size, he would have a chance to be all-conference in a couple of years. As it is, Young's lack of explosiveness limits his upside because he is undersized for the position. He's been a great surprise this season, though, and will hopefully continue to improve.

 

[Medill90]

I think Young will keep getting stronger and with that, when he bumps guys low, he'll have a bit more space to get his shot off. He misses too many bunnies because he hesitates/doesn't shoot w complete confidence.

I think he moves pretty well. He's not an uber athlete but there have been a couple baseline moves where, with his back to the basket he quick spins to the baseline and is able to go up and under. I realize he looks like the poster child for big, slow white guys (I speak from first-hand experience) but he's athletic and is not slow. And has plenty of basketball in him.

He's a nice college player who will get better. He's a big. Bigs take time. We should all be very pleased.

The Illinois center is a pro player who will get paid next year. Seems like a nice kid.

 

[willycat]

I think Young will keep getting stronger and with that, when he bumps guys low, he'll have a bit more space to get his shot off. He misses too many bunnies because he hesitates/doesn't shoot w complete confidence.

I think he moves pretty well. He's not an uber athlete but there have been a couple baseline moves where, with his back to the basket he quick spins to the baseline and is able to go up and under. I realize he looks like the poster child for big, slow white guys (I speak from first-hand experience) but he's athletic and is not slow. And has plenty of basketball in him.

He's a nice college player who will get better. He's a big. Bigs take time. We should all be very pleased.

The Illinois center is a pro player who will get paid next year. Seems like a nice kid.

He might be getting paid now, along a certain other soon to be pro guy.

 

[clarificationcat]

I think Young will keep getting stronger and with that, when he bumps guys low, he'll have a bit more space to get his shot off. He misses too many bunnies because he hesitates/doesn't shoot w complete confidence.

I think he moves pretty well. He's not an uber athlete but there have been a couple baseline moves where, with his back to the basket he quick spins to the baseline and is able to go up and under. I realize he looks like the poster child for big, slow white guys (I speak from first-hand experience) but he's athletic and is not slow. And has plenty of basketball in him.

He's a nice college player who will get better. He's a big. Bigs take time. We should all be very pleased.

The Illinois center is a pro player who will get paid next year. Seems like a nice kid.

If he goes pro next year, it will be in Europe. I don't think he's currently in most top 75 NBA draft prospects. He may be at Illinois for a few years.

 

[Medill90]

If he goes pro next year, it will be in Europe. I don't think he's currently in most top 75 NBA draft prospects. He may be at Illinois for a few years.

Steve Bardo has him as a lottery pick. I think he's a first round pick, not a second. Not a lot of guys with that size can move like that.

 

[combes]

Steve Bardo has him as a lottery pick. I think he's a first round pick, not a second. Not a lot of guys with that size can move like that.

Kofi would have been a lottery pick 15-20 years ago. He is currently not listed in the top 100 draft prospects. He will be back.

The NBA has changed so much. Bigs like Kofi need to be able to step out to the three point line. Very little post up game in the NBA.

Kofi needs to work on expanding his range and not bringing the ball down at times.

Ayo is definitely leaving. Kofi, no.

Ayo is a huge loss but 5-star Adam Miller and 4-star Andre Curbelo will help. I actually like Curbelo more than Miller. Different positions. Curbelo will likely start at the point with Griffin, Frazier, and/or Miller on the wings.

 

[Medill90]

Kofi would have been a lottery pick 15-20 years ago. He is currently not listed in the top 100 draft prospects. He will be back.

The NBA has changed so much. Bigs like Kofi need to be able to step out to the three point line. Very little post up game in the NBA.

Kofi needs to work on expanding his range and not bringing the ball down at times.

Ayo is definitely leaving. Kofi, no.

Ayo is a huge loss but 5-star Adam Miller and 4-star Andre Curbelo will help. I actually like Curbelo more than Miller. Different positions. Curbelo will likely start at the point with Griffin, Frazier, and/or Miller on the wings.

"15-20 years ago" sums up my thinking on most topics

Unrelated, I had a thought on Miller which is that Illinois had really started on the wrong foot with CPS coaches. That all seems to be in the rearview mirror.

 

[CatManTrue]

I thought Nance had his best game of the year.

He was active inside pulling down 7 rebounds. he was actively defensively and showed great body language and emotion, and while i don't love his offensive game he at least played with confidence. unfortunately no one else played anywhere near a good game

His best game of the year came today, aside from his shooting 0-3 from 3.

14 rebounds, 5 blocks, 6 points (2-3 from inside the arc, 2-2 from FT), and 1 assist / steal.

Well done. He has really turned the corner and is becoming a player. Glad to see it clicking for him.

 

[mekCat]

His passing was also quite impressive. He has good court vision

 

[haywood jahblowme]

His best game of the year came today, aside from his shooting 0-3 from 3.

14 rebounds, 5 blocks, 6 points (2-3 from inside the arc, 2-2 from FT), and 1 assist / steal.

Well done. He has really turned the corner and is becoming a player. Glad to see it clicking for him.

nance has strung together some really nice games in the last 5-6 games making impacts outside of just scoring. and it was great to see him go up strong for a dunk when he got fouled.

 

[NJCat]

nance has strung together some really nice games in the last 5-6 games making impacts outside of just scoring. and it was great to see him go up strong for a dunk when he got fouled.

Nance is turning into Sanjay Lumpkin....glue guy who can defend and rebound but with a limited offensive game.......and Sanjay was invaluable in the Senior year.

 

[GatoLouco]

Nance is very effective playing behind Young. I believe that was very visible in the beginning of conference play. He helps keeping other teams out of the paint.

If he has to guard the main big on the other team, his influence goes down a lot.

His body language looks a lot better. More confidence.

 

[clarificationcat]

Nance is turning into Sanjay Lumpkin....glue guy who can defend and rebound but with a limited offensive game.......and Sanjay was invaluable in the Senior year.

I think Vic Law is probably a better comparison. Nance already has more double-digit scoring games in B1G games this year than Sanjay had in his career. Law was a much, much better 3-point shooter than Nance (obviously) but was more of fill-up the stats sheet guy than a natural scorer. I hope that Nance can average 10-12 points (with a much higher shooting percentage), 7+ rebounds and a 2+ assists next year. Nance is not nearly as good an on-ball defender as Vic or Sanjay but he can guard multiple positions like them and will get a lot more blocks.

 

[hdhntr1]

pretty close to Olah sophomore year in year 1 - will be interesting to see how he develops

Ryan Young
games - min - pts - rbs - blks
26 - 26.1 - 9.3 - 6.1 - 0.4

pardon
games - min - pts - rbds - blks
1 - 20 - 16.6 - 6.7 - 4.2 - 0.6
2 - 28 - 30.8 - 8.6 - 8.0 - 1.8
3 - 32 - 32 - 11.3 - 7.1 - 1.8
4 - 32 - 32.7 - 14 - 7.8 - 0.9

olah years
games - min - pts - rbds - blks
1 - 31 - 22.2 - 6.1 - 4.1 - 0.9
2 - 33 - 29.5 - 9.1 - 5.2 - 1.8
3 - 32 - 29.4 - 11.7 -6.9 - 1.8
4 - 26 - 24 - 11.4 - 5.6 -1.4

i always thought Olah was more solid than he got credit for

olah compeition:
pu - hammons, sinpson, carroll, haas, swanigan,
iu - watford, elston, zeller, vonleh, mosquera-perea, thomas bryant, max bielfeldt
osu - amir williams, ravenel, anthony lee, trevor thompson, giddens
um - mcgary, jordan morgan, max beifeldt, donnal, doyle, wagner, teske
msu - schilling, payne, costello, davis
minn - mo walker, eliason, king, konate,
neb -vucetic, almeida, ayegba, jacob hammond,
ill - djimde, egwu, mav morgan, finke
iowa - olaseni, woodbury,
psu - borovnjak, ackerman, wisniewski, julian moore, watkins
mary - carter, cekovsky, dodd, bender, stone
rut - doorsman, diallo, kadeem jack, foreman,

 

[hdhntr1]

Olah became an integral part of the team under CCC and James

 

[hdhntr1]

Nance is turning into Sanjay Lumpkin....glue guy who can defend and rebound but with a limited offensive game.......and Sanjay was invaluable in the Senior year.

Also reminds me of Nash who became an offensive force his Sr year. His first couple years he was there really for D

 

[salukicat]

You can tell that Nance has stayed in the weight room this season. If he can add another 20 lbs this off season, which I think he will, he will be in a much better position to bang with the big ten bigs next year.

 

[CatManTrue]

nance has strung together some really nice games in the last 5-6 games making impacts outside of just scoring. and it was great to see him go up strong for a dunk when he got fouled.

If I were CCC I’d let him have one 3 per game at this point. If he’s wide open then he could go for a 2nd. But that’s it! And if he bucks this rule, CCC should pull him for a bit to chill him out and refocus on his interior game.

Otherwise, keep him attacking the damn basket! He’s clearly not going to be Steph Curry so coach him to use his skillset. He could average a double-double if he focused on the best aspects of his game.

 

[GatoLouco]

If I were CCC I’d let him have one 3 per game at this point. If he’s wide open then he could go for a 2nd. But that’s it! And if he bucks this rule, CCC should pull him for a bit to chill him out and refocus on his interior game.

28% is not good, but it is not atrocious either. It's 42% efg. Kind of falls into the range of "if there's a good shot, take it". Problem is taking bad shots.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Nance's 3 point shot looks like my 3 point shot when I'm being guarded by Little Hungry. I still miss 75% of them.

 

[rwhitney014]

nance has strung together some really nice games in the last 5-6 games making impacts outside of just scoring. and it was great to see him go up strong for a dunk when he got fouled.

As I wrote in the other thread, Collins needs to text him a video clip of that dunk attempt every day for the rest of his time at NU. More of that.

 

[willycat]

As I wrote in the other thread, Collins needs to text him a video clip of that dunk attempt every day for the rest of his time at NU. More of that.

he should be playing at the 5.

 

[CatManTrue]

As I wrote in the other thread, Collins needs to text him a video clip of that dunk attempt every day for the rest of his time at NU. More of that.

Yes. Use your NBA hereditary athleticism and attack the f’ing basket. No mercy.

 

[rwhitney014]

he should be playing at the 5.

No, he should be at the 4, where he’s a mismatch. He had 14 boards yesterday because Nebraska’s lone big was tangling with Young (and mostly winning, grabbing 19 boards himself). But they had no one to match up with Nance, so he gobbled up his fair share and was a force blocking shots because he didn’t have to box out the opponent’s big. That was a mismatch. Then, when he was able to get the ball in the paint, he was able to get into his baby hook or step back jumper, or that dunk attempt - again all over a smaller defender.

Nance has a physical advantage and the last few games it’s started to look like he’s getting an idea of how to exploit it. If he can improve his outside shooting by about 10%, it will make him a monster. More more more.

 

[clarificationcat]

No, he should be at the 4, where he’s a mismatch. He had 14 boards yesterday because Nebraska’s lone big was tangling with Young (and mostly winning, grabbing 19 boards himself). But they had no one to match up with Nance, so he gobbled up his fair share and was a force blocking shots because he didn’t have to box out the opponent’s big. That was a mismatch. Then, when he was able to get the ball in the paint, he was able to get into his baby hook or step back jumper, or that dunk attempt - again all over a smaller defender.

Nance has a physical advantage and the last few games it’s started to look like he’s getting an idea of how to exploit it. If he can improve his outside shooting by about 10%, it will make him a monster. More more more.

I agree this year. If he gets stronger and improves his outside shot, he might be able to play the 5 in certain matchups and draw the other team's big away from the basket. A lot of it will depend on whether Beran gets stronger next year and can defend and rebound at the 4. Hopefully he will and Nance can get minutes at both 4 and 5 depending on the matchups.

 

[rwhitney014]

I agree this year. If he gets stronger and improves his outside shot, he might be able to play the 5 in certain matchups and draw the other team's big away from the basket. A lot of it will depend on whether Beran gets stronger next year and can defend and rebound at the 4. Hopefully he will and Nance can get minutes at both 4 and 5 depending on the matchups.

I could see it in a couple seasons if we were to land PBJ, but otherwise, we don’t need Nance battling with the true centers in the conference. We’re also devoting three scholarships the next three years to Young, Jones, and Nicholson, so those guys have to play too.

 

[GatoLouco]

On offense, who cares if he plays the 4 or 5? It's not like we look to get the ball to anyone on the low post. Our 5 often spends a ton of time on the 3 point line. Which, when he can't shoot the 3, is not very useful as his defender just stays on the free throw line and can help easily on any penetration. But I digress.

On defense, his effectiveness would go down a lot if he had to guard the main big of the other team.

 

[willycat]

On offense, who cares if he plays the 4 or 5? It's not like we look to get the ball to anyone on the low post. Our 5 often spends a ton of time on the 3 point line. Which, when he can't shoot the 3, is not very useful as his defender just stays on the free throw line and can help easily on any penetration. But I digress.

On defense, his effectiveness would go down a lot if he had to guard the main big of the other team.

I'm just thinking that getting Nance down low and away from the 3 point line is a plus for the NU offense. Maybe he doesn't have the body to bang with typical conference centers but he's still NU's best rebounder and shot blocker. Needs to do a lot of off season work in the weight room. As far as the center almost always being up at the 3 point line, it is one thing I just don't understand, especially when he has no outside shot.

 

[DkeCat]

I thought Nance had his best game of the year.

He was active inside pulling down 7 rebounds. he was actively defensively and showed great body language and emotion, and while i don't love his offensive game he at least played with confidence. unfortunately no one else played anywhere near a good game

The play yesterday where he took the chair out from under the IU defender was one of my favorite plays of the year. The alternative angle where you watch the player's face as he reaches for contact with his elbow, finds nothing, and falls over was great comedy.

 

[PurpleFaze]

At least nance looks like maybe he's figured it out and his confidence is returning. He could be a big contributor next season. That drive and dunk he had vs Wisconsin is exactly how he needs to play.

One of the telecasts said NU has the 6th tallest team in NCAA bball? Seems like we don't play like it often enough.

 

[Medill90]

At least nance looks like maybe he's figured it out and his confidence is returning. He could be a big contributor next season. That drive and dunk he had vs Wisconsin is exactly how he needs to play.

One of the telecasts said NU has the 6th tallest team in NCAA bball? Seems like we don't play like it often enough.

There's a difference between "big" and "tall"

If you're life depended on getting one rebound, from which pool would you choose to get that done.....Tall Pool: Jabbar, Ralph Sampson, Shawn Bradley, Lauri Markkanen....or Big Pool: Wes Unseld, Charles Oakley, Elvin Hayes, Moses Malone?

 

[NJCat]

There's a difference between "big" and "tall"

?

Chier Ajou was tall.......

 

[PurpleFaze]

There's a difference between "big" and "tall"

If you're life depended on getting one rebound, from which pool would you choose to get that done.....Tall Pool: Jabbar, Ralph Sampson, Shawn Bradley, Lauri Markkanen....or Big Pool: Wes Unseld, Charles Oakley, Elvin Hayes, Moses Malone?

There is also a difference between tall and “not tall”. My overall point is we have quite a few guys in the 6’10” range and way too often they try to play like small forwards or shooting guards- see nance and Beran.

 

[ThatkidfromHolland]

There is also a difference between tall and “not tall”. My overall point is we have quite a few guys in the 6’10” range and way too often they try to play like small forwards or shooting guards- see nance and Beran.

Our best rebounder plays like a small forward/shooting guard? Also slides over to help in the post quite a bit? Hmmm okay.

 

[PurpleFaze]

Our best rebounder plays like a small forward/shooting guard? Also slides over to help in the post quite a bit? Hmmm okay.

If you’ve watched many games you’d know nance plays that way far too much on the offensive end

Nance attempted 240 fg’s this season- 96 of them from three. He took the third most 3’s on the team behind boo and Kopp. He took more than AJ and had almost twice as many as Spencer.

 

[ThatkidfromHolland]

If you’ve watched many games you’d know nance plays that way far too much on the offensive end

Nance attempted 240 fg’s this season- 96 of them from three. He took the third most 3’s on the team behind boo and Kopp. He took more than AJ and had almost twice as many as Spencer.

I’ve seen every game it’s called a stretch 4 for a reason. He’s a better 3 pt shooter than AJ and Spencer.

 

[NJCat]

He’s a better 3 pt shooter than AJ and Spencer.

Tallest midget.

 

[PurpleFaze]

I’ve seen every game it’s called a stretch 4 for a reason. He’s a better 3 pt shooter than AJ and Spencer.

He’s 6’10” and shot 28% from 3. We’d be a better team and he’d be a more valuable player if he spent more time being aggressive towards the basket. An occasional wide open 3? Sure. When they are 40% of the shots he takes, no thanks.