ADVERTISEMENT

"Secret scrimmage" vs. Iowa State

Iowa State lost to South Dakota State by 15 in their first scrimmage. I’d be surprised if Northwestern didn’t pound them.
 
I believe ISU won actually in a one half scrimmage.
then they went into situational games.
 
wap003 said:
I believe ISU won actually in a one half scrimmage.
then they went into situational games.
Click to expand...
That is different than what is posted on the Rock, by someone known around here to have reliable info.
 
GatoLouco said:
Starting 5? Anyone has a box score?
Click to expand...
I haven't seen a box score, but heard we played a 20 minute half where Iowa State started strong, then two 8 minute segments, one of which both teams played zone by agreement. As I understand it, NU outscored ISU in total by around 12, but I didn't hear the breakdown. Buie, Audige, Berry, Beran and Nance started.
 
cats_man_too said:
I haven't seen a box score, but heard we played a 20 minute half where Iowa State started strong, then two 8 minute segments, one of which both teams played zone by agreement. As I understand it, NU outscored ISU in total by around 12, but I didn't hear the breakdown. Buie, Audige, Berry, Beran and Nance started.
Click to expand...
I’m guessing this is one of those scrimmages where the coaches can stop play whenever they want for teaching moments.
 
NUera said:
I’m guessing this is one of those scrimmages where the coaches can stop play whenever they want for teaching moments.
Click to expand...
That's sort of the point, isn't it? NU has an exhibition game this Thursday to play a normal game.
 
cats_man_too said:
I haven't seen a box score, but heard we played a 20 minute half where Iowa State started strong, then two 8 minute segments, one of which both teams played zone by agreement. As I understand it, NU outscored ISU in total by around 12, but I didn't hear the breakdown. Buie, Audige, Berry, Beran and Nance started.
Click to expand...

That starting lineup makes me 50% less optimistic about the upcoming season
 
  • Like
Reactions: ctsfn, LansingCat, benoitdenizetl and 2 others
GatoLouco said:
That starting lineup makes me 50% less optimistic about the upcoming season
Click to expand...
I don't mind the three guards. I think Berry or Audige can possibly play against a regular 3.
But the Beran/Nance thing is a disaster and the primary reason we underperformed our talent last year. To play them together (EVER) is a proven mistake.
I also don't think Buie and Audige can play together in the backcourt. They are both shooting guards, but only Buie seems to know how to move when he is off the ball. This is compounded by the apparent reality that Audige is not a good passer.

Audige at small forward could work, using his athleticism to neutralize height disadvantage defensively and his quickness to score points.

I would be excited about Young / Nance / Audige / Buie / Berry.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: benoitdenizetl
You were already not optimistic, just “hopeful”.

Did PurpleWhiteBoy adjust his analysis for who our guys played against (the other team’s first or second string)? Without that, it gives me pause as to drawing definitive conclusions about individual/combined groups of players’ value.

Despite my relative optimism vs. many, I was admittedly down last year on the idea of Buie starting again this year. I really hope he makes better decisions and the increased competition at guard makes him better.

Beran is also a huge wildcard to me. If he has not developed more and is as scattered as to when he contributes or not, we will struggle again. I hope Collins pushed him ha, and the presence of Williams should.

We (obviously) need to stop getting into big deficits right away. Maturity and experience should help.

I am sure we will all see similar frustrating situations / habits as in the recent past, just not as many, and not anywhere near as long a losing streak. We will be improved. Is it enough to get to the tourney will likely depend on injuries.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CoralSpringsCat and cats_man_too
I think Buie will be improved this year and I hope for more consistent results. We need Audige's scoring, but also need him to be more consistent and make better decisions. Williams gives us an option for Beran's slot that we didn't have last year. Roper seems like the freshman that is currently showing he can contribute at guard/wing early and Greer provides stability when needed.

It feels like we have options and I am hopeful for postseason play this year. The talent, experience, depth, and schedule seem to provide for that opportunity.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SDakaGordie
SDakaGordie said:
You were already not optimistic, just “hopeful”.
Click to expand...
True. That's what I said. Hope might easily be NU's word for optimism anyway. We know who we are, we know our history. And it's not pretty. Will you be happy if I say I am 50% less hopeful? Probably not.

In any case, if we rebound like last year we won't win more than 7 games. And that's a problem that does not get solved by leaving Beran out there.

We have the talent to win 8-9 games. With some luck, 10-11 and sneak into the tournament. That's a more optimistic view than a lot of posters here have.

How we use that talent will be what determines our success.
 
GatoLouco said:
True. That's what I said. Hope might easily be NU's word for optimism anyway. We know who we are, we know our history. And it's not pretty. Will you be happy if I say I am 50% less hopeful? Probably not.

In any case, if we rebound like last year we won't win more than 7 games. And that's a problem that does not get solved by leaving Beran out there.

We have the talent to win 8-9 games. With some luck, 10-11 and sneak into the tournament. That's a more optimistic view than a lot of posters here have.

How we use that talent will be what determines our success.
Click to expand...

I just don't see a lot of toughness in our current group, guys who are strong enough or have the necessary will to survive the Big Ten. I think that's why we ritually have long losing streaks each season. We don't have a guy like McIntosh or even guys like Shurna or Juice who can get a basket when we're in need.
 
  • Like
Reactions: benoitdenizetl
JournCat said:
I just don't see a lot of toughness in our current group, guys who are strong enough or have the necessary will to survive the Big Ten. I think that's why we ritually have long losing streaks each season. We don't have a guy like McIntosh or even guys like Shurna or Juice who can get a basket when we're in need.
Click to expand...
It seems like Williams plays with an edge, so hopefully that will help. But I agree this squad needs to improve in toughness (both physical and mental) this season to prevent a slide once the Big10 gauntlet gets started. I think Young and Audige would also be in my 'toughness' starting 5.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: ctsfn, JournCat, Sec.112 and 1 other person
I can live with Beran, but he's got to be on a short leash. If he's on the Kopp plan where he's given FAR more opportunities that his productivity deserves, then it will be extremely disappointing. They can't enter every season going out of their way trying to prove the staff's faith in a player.

Also, Elyjah's three-point shot seems legit. Granted it's based on one game, but he's not Sanjay out there from three. He made two in the purple-white scrimmage, an he shot 42% from three last year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Rebel_, CoralSpringsCat and cats_man_too
You guys are making solid points. I remain optimistic - primarily about the depth and talent on our roster, but I don't trust Collins to use lineups that don't underperform the talent.

SDakaGordie - my numbers are strictly the scoring "+/-" for each player, in all combos used last year.
It would be much too difficult to adjust for quality of opponent.

However, I can adjust for quality of the teammates each NU player was teamed with. That adjustment makes it clear that Ryan Young was our best (or most effective) player last year.

One example - the "starters" (Nance, Beran, Kopp, Buie, Audige) played more than any other lineup and got stomped 280-233 in about 149 minutes of Big Ten action . When Young replaced Nance in that lineup, we thrashed our opponents 59-39, but it was only in about 26 minutes of action (total). When Young replaced Beran in that lineup, we outscored our Big Ten opponents 93-90 in 59 minutes of action.

There is really no way to justify using Beran and Nance together.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ctsfn and benoitdenizetl
yeah but remember Young might have been the most efficient...on a losing team. Starting 3 gaurds indicates to me that they are changing the offense and will be taking the ball to the hoop more this year( finally taking advantage of the rule change prehibiting hand checking that took place years ago)....maybe a lot of high pick and roll with Nance or Beran at the top....with others spread around the 3 pt line.....
 
GatoLouco said:
True. That's what I said. Hope might easily be NU's word for optimism anyway. We know who we are, we know our history. And it's not pretty. Will you be happy if I say I am 50% less hopeful? Probably not.

In any case, if we rebound like last year we won't win more than 7 games. And that's a problem that does not get solved by leaving Beran out there.

We have the talent to win 8-9 games. With some luck, 10-11 and sneak into the tournament. That's a more optimistic view than a lot of posters here have.

How we use that talent will be what determines our success.
Click to expand...
My level of happiness is not impacted by your comments; just want to discuss NU hoops in a civil manner.

I do agree with all but the last - the idea that Collins inherently misuses talent is overblown on this board, in my opinion. And the lineup data, which is not credible enough on its own, is even less so since we can’t compare to other lineups. And Collins has plenty of other evaluators of talent on his bench with him; I don’t see him as someone who ignores his coaches.

Recruiting aside (where we all tend to agree Collins reasonably excels):

We say we don’t have tough enough guys - that’s not Collins’s fault - he’s tough as nails. We also (rightfully) say we don’t have guys who can take over games and make big buckets; that’s also not Collins’ fault; he gives guys every opportunity to do so. He’s not perfect; no one is. But, I can’t say he is the problem when he’s not.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ThatkidfromHolland, CoralSpringsCat, cats_man_too and 1 other person
SDakaGordie said:
My level of happiness is not impacted by your comments; just want to discuss NU hoops in a civil manner.

I do agree with all but the last - the idea that Collins inherently misuses talent is overblown on this board, in my opinion. And the lineup data, which is not credible enough on its own, is even less so since we can’t compare to other lineups. And Collins has plenty of other evaluators of talent on his bench with him; I don’t see him as someone who ignores his coaches.

Recruiting aside (where we all tend to agree Collins reasonably excels):

We say we don’t have tough enough guys - that’s not Collins’s fault - he’s tough as nails. We also (rightfully) say we don’t have guys who can take over games and make big buckets; that’s also not Collins’ fault; he gives guys every opportunity to do so. He’s not perfect; no one is. But, I can’t say he is the problem when he’s not.
Click to expand...
These are interesting opinions. However, the only thing you can truly measure is the score. The best indication of a player's effectiveness in a team game is the team's performance when each player is in the game.

You can say Collins is "tough as nails" while I might say "Collins is soft as a marshmallow." Those are opinions.

However, the numbers say clearly that Collins mis-used his players last year. I don't have data for prior years, so I don't know if last year was representative or just a fluke.

Our "starting lineup" (Nance, Beran, Kopp, Buie, Audige) was worse than our average lineup last year, Definitively. The starters scored 83.2% of the points they allowed. Collectively, our other lineups scored 90.3% of the points they allowed. That can only be described as "misuse."

A second example of misuse of the roster was playing Young and Gaines together without either Nance or Beran, a whole assortment of lineups I called "Young and 4 guards." That collection of lineups played a full 16% of the minutes and got destroyed 244-161 in 20 Big Ten games. My conclusion is that Coach Collins gave away 5-7 points PER GAME based on the lineups he was sending out there last year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: IGNORE2
As for the Nance-Beran combo, the one thing it leads me to believe is that - despite the mancrush some on this board have - Nicholson must be nowhere near ready to contribute. Thus, Collins needs Nance and Young to split duties at the 5. If they are on the court together, then neither is getting a breather and it runs the risk of foul trouble.
 
  • Like
Reactions: willycat
PurpleWhiteBoy said:
These are interesting opinions. However, the only thing you can truly measure is the score. The best indication of a player's effectiveness in a team game is the team's performance when each player is in the game.

You can say Collins is "tough as nails" while I might say "Collins is soft as a marshmallow." Those are opinions.

However, the numbers say clearly that Collins mis-used his players last year. I don't have data for prior years, so I don't know if last year was representative or just a fluke.

Our "starting lineup" (Nance, Beran, Kopp, Buie, Audige) was worse than our average lineup last year, Definitively. The starters scored 83.2% of the points they allowed. Collectively, our other lineups scored 90.3% of the points they allowed. That can only be described as "misuse."

A second example of misuse of the roster was playing Young and Gaines together without either Nance or Beran, a whole assortment of lineups I called "Young and 4 guards." That collection of lineups played a full 16% of the minutes and got destroyed 244-161 in 20 Big Ten games. My conclusion is that Coach Collins gave away 5-7 points PER GAME based on the lineups he was sending out there last year.
Click to expand...
It's worth noting that the starters play more against the other team's starters, higher degree of difficulty. That's not to say that your point is meritless (I generally agree with you), but you still need to apply some context for +/- numbers.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ThatkidfromHolland and PurpleWhiteBoy
TheC said:
As for the Nance-Beran combo, the one thing it leads me to believe is that - despite the mancrush some on this board have - Nicholson must be nowhere near ready to contribute. Thus, Collins needs Nance and Young to split duties at the 5. If they are on the court together, then neither is getting a breather and it runs the risk of foul trouble.
Click to expand...

That is making a big assumption. What one can fairly state is that Chris Collins didn't think Matt Nicholson should be playing last year. Whether Nicholson was actually ready is a different matter. Ask Dererk Pardon! We can also fairly state that every other coach in the Big Ten got his big freshman some meaningful minutes.

Even without Nicholson, Collins didnt NEED to split Young and Nance at the 5. He CHOSE to.

When Nance played with Beran we got thrashed 548-454. (38% of the minutes, btw)
When Young played with neither Beran nor Nance we got obliterated 255-178. (17% of minutes)
Instead of bad lineups for 55% of the game, had Collins simply played these 3 lineups...

Young with Nance 245-229
Young with Beran 184-176.
Nance with neither Beran nor Young 209-208.

we would have been a mid-pack Big Ten team last year. The talent is there. The coach is the question.
 
  • Like
  • Haha
Reactions: IGNORE2 and willycat
ricko654321 said:
It's worth noting that the starters play more against the other team's starters, higher degree of difficulty. That's not to say that your point is meritless (I generally agree with you), but you still need to apply some context for +/- numbers.
Click to expand...
You agree with this, but it calls into question all of the figures you have been providing to us…
 
SDakaGordie said:
You agree with this, but it calls into question all of the figures you have been providing to us…
Click to expand...
I agree that there is some minor adjustment that needs to be made for the first few minutes of a game.
Not nearly enough to change what the numbers are telling us.

I liked his comment because it shows that ricko654321 understands the issue.
 
  • Like
Reactions: IGNORE2
SDakaGordie said:
My level of happiness is not impacted by your comments; just want to discuss NU hoops in a civil manner.

I do agree with all but the last - the idea that Collins inherently misuses talent is overblown on this board, in my opinion. And the lineup data, which is not credible enough on its own, is even less so since we can’t compare to other lineups. And Collins has plenty of other evaluators of talent on his bench with him; I don’t see him as someone who ignores his coaches.

Recruiting aside (where we all tend to agree Collins reasonably excels):

We say we don’t have tough enough guys - that’s not Collins’s fault - he’s tough as nails. We also (rightfully) say we don’t have guys who can take over games and make big buckets; that’s also not Collins’ fault; he gives guys every opportunity to do so. He’s not perfect; no one is. But, I can’t say he is the problem when he’s not.
Click to expand...

1. The data that was sufficient from last year: wins v losses. And purples data seems to coincide. This was a terrible team last year as it was deployed. Maybe the players, maybe the lineups but terrible. Someone remind me of the definition of insanity.

2. Who is responsible for identifying talent, recruiting it and developing it? Unlike the bigs where separate coaches and GMs make the debate of failure harder - in college it is simple. Find the talent you want, get them in and develop your system. If your program sucks, start with the architect.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

SmellyCat

How big is the bubble? Or: Why we are safe (2024 version)

Replies
16
Views
1K
Wildcat Basketball Board
Purple Pile Driver
Purple Pile Driver
Alaskawildkat

Assuming Wisconsin and Iowa Win, If NU Beats Illinois - We go to Phoenix, Otherwise Detroit

Replies
60
Views
3K
FloridAlum Memorial Football Board
BosCat
BosCat
Alaskawildkat

Do Tuesday's CFB Rankings which drop OSU to #6 and have Penn State at #10 Potentially Impact Where the Wildcats will Play?

Replies
14
Views
577
FloridAlum Memorial Football Board
gradeck
G
PurpleWhiteBoy

Big Ten performances so far...

Replies
54
Views
3K
Wildcat Basketball Board
IGNORE2
I
lou v

NU to play Arizona State in Phoenix on Dec. 20

Replies
4
Views
533
Wildcat Basketball Board
PurpleWhiteBoy
PurpleWhiteBoy
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT
Top Bottom
Back