We will beat Nebraska on Saturday. And it won't even be that close.
You heard it here first - UNL
- Thread starter GatoLouco
- Start date
I've only had a chance to watch a few halves of Nebrasketball, they're kinda like us in that they can fill it up, and they can turn their opponents over. However, aside from Penn State, they'll be the weakest defensive team we'll face. And if Juwan Gary is out (he had a non-contact injury down the stretch in last night's OT loss to Rutgers), they lose the dude who leads their team in steal rate and block rate (as well as leading OREB% guy).
Now that you are out on that limb, remember to saw off the part that is further away from the tree trunk!
Just kidding. I hope you're right.
From what I've seen so far, and records can be deceiving, 3/4 years ago we started 3-0:
- Rutgers, Michigan and Minnesota are dreadful. They will steal one here and there. 6 or 7 wins
- Ohio State, Nebraska, Indiana, Penn State and Iowa are just not that good. One or two will be a threat to sneak into the tourney. 8 to 11 wins
- Michigan State, Maryland and Northwestern are solid teams that should get into the tournament. 12 to 13 wins
- Purdue, Illinois and Wisconsin are the better teams that can be consistently good. 14-16 wins
Tominaga has to be the most confident ok player I've ever seen. He does a lot of things well, but he takes shots (and to his credit, makes a lot of them) like he's Steph Curry. I'm not saying I don't enjoy watching him play, but man does he believe in himself.
It’s on the road in the big ten. I just cannot chalk up a W in advance with any degree of confidence.
One pulls a prediction out of his tushy! And one wants to will it into existence.
More seriously, I think Nebraska still, for the most part, sucks. They can get hot, that's about it.
I endorse any and all types of thinking that leads to optimism. When humans stop being optimistic, they die (we have some dead people on these forums).
I do like our chances against Nebby. We can hang tough on the road. We can defend well enough, and Nebby does not have a freakishly athletic guard like Young or Walker to torture us. I think Big Matt, if he plays like he did vs. Reese, can handle that Danish guy inside. We can win this game.
Hopefully you are right. But it still is a road game and they are always tough in BIG and NEB did recently take down Purdue so cautiously optimistic.
it would be nice to win one going away for once, especially on the road. I guess Michigan State was like that (albeit at home), but most games seem to come down to the wire.
Gato is challenging recent history to a cage match.
Nebraska has been great at home and bad on the road.
Going backwards thru their Big Ten schedule...
Lost at Rutgers in OT.
Lost at Iowa 94-76.
Beat Purdue in Lincoln 88-72.
Lost at Wisconsin 88-72.
Beat Indiana in Lincoln 86-70.
Beat MSU in Lincoln 77-70.
Lost at Minnesota 76-65.
Nebraska has been great at home and bad on the road.
Going backwards thru their Big Ten schedule...
Lost at Rutgers in OT.
Lost at Iowa 94-76.
Beat Purdue in Lincoln 88-72.
Lost at Wisconsin 88-72.
Beat Indiana in Lincoln 86-70.
Beat MSU in Lincoln 77-70.
Lost at Minnesota 76-65.
Estrellita reads the stars!!
NU is good enough, but will they play good enough? They can have sloooow first halves (PSU/UW) and they can go cold when they're about to win (UW). And they can suddenly meet the team that's going to play the best game they'll ever play, even in heaven, for some reason (Ill).
But that MD game showed once again that NU CAN win. MD is way tough. Huge consistency statement and another game that could have gone either way, but NU found a way to win. And the WR home court advantage is getting some respect.
Nebraska has shown they're way tough, too, so though I respect Gato's unique skill, I expect another dog fight, like the MD game, and it will take NU's best game to win it.
Maybe NU will have to fight out the last 3 seconds again, but I think they'll win.
GO CATS!
NU is good enough, but will they play good enough? They can have sloooow first halves (PSU/UW) and they can go cold when they're about to win (UW). And they can suddenly meet the team that's going to play the best game they'll ever play, even in heaven, for some reason (Ill).
But that MD game showed once again that NU CAN win. MD is way tough. Huge consistency statement and another game that could have gone either way, but NU found a way to win. And the WR home court advantage is getting some respect.
Nebraska has shown they're way tough, too, so though I respect Gato's unique skill, I expect another dog fight, like the MD game, and it will take NU's best game to win it.
Maybe NU will have to fight out the last 3 seconds again, but I think they'll win.
GO CATS!
Nebraska, like us, has also taken down Purdue and MSU at home. Their center, Mast, only takes 26% of his shots at the rim and has no dunks on the year. Loves the midrange shot. He isn't a shot blocker, but he is a good passer and rebounder. They love shooting 3s - Tominaga, Lawrence, Hoiberg and Wilcher all shoot more than half their shots from deep, and they have four guys who are shooting >40% from deep in conference play.
Tominaga is the biggest threat, last year he scored 22 against us and is averaging 7 attempted 3s per game. Brice Williams is their best all-around player - he transferred from Charlotte where he led them to the CBI title last year - he nearly had a triple double against Purdue (9 points, 11 boards, 9 assists) in their win. Brooks will need to lock him down. The PG, Lawrence, hit 4 3s against us last year, but has seemingly forgotten how to shoot this year, with his 3pt% dropping from 37.3% to 24.6% this year.
If Gary can't play, that's huge, as he is their steadiest and most efficient player. CJ Wilcher can replace him offensively, but Gary is a much better defender. The rest of their rotation is coach's son Sam Hoiberg, who is an excellent shooter and has quick hands on defense, but he only takes about 3 shots per game. Lastly, Josiah Allick is a 6'8" backup PF/C who's reasonably efficient on offense and a solid defender. If the rejuvenated Big Matt comes to Lincoln, we should be good there.
They're 11-1 at home, but the 1 was a blowout loss to Creighton by 29, who held them to 2-22 shooting from deep. I...don't expect us to be able to do that. In their home wins over Indiana, Purdue, and MSU, they made 12, 14, and 10 3s respectively, while only turning the ball over 8-9 times per game. If we can disrupt their offensive efficiency, we can definitely win, but I don't think it will be easy.
Tominaga is the biggest threat, last year he scored 22 against us and is averaging 7 attempted 3s per game. Brice Williams is their best all-around player - he transferred from Charlotte where he led them to the CBI title last year - he nearly had a triple double against Purdue (9 points, 11 boards, 9 assists) in their win. Brooks will need to lock him down. The PG, Lawrence, hit 4 3s against us last year, but has seemingly forgotten how to shoot this year, with his 3pt% dropping from 37.3% to 24.6% this year.
If Gary can't play, that's huge, as he is their steadiest and most efficient player. CJ Wilcher can replace him offensively, but Gary is a much better defender. The rest of their rotation is coach's son Sam Hoiberg, who is an excellent shooter and has quick hands on defense, but he only takes about 3 shots per game. Lastly, Josiah Allick is a 6'8" backup PF/C who's reasonably efficient on offense and a solid defender. If the rejuvenated Big Matt comes to Lincoln, we should be good there.
They're 11-1 at home, but the 1 was a blowout loss to Creighton by 29, who held them to 2-22 shooting from deep. I...don't expect us to be able to do that. In their home wins over Indiana, Purdue, and MSU, they made 12, 14, and 10 3s respectively, while only turning the ball over 8-9 times per game. If we can disrupt their offensive efficiency, we can definitely win, but I don't think it will be easy.
I'm not the statistical wizard that you are, but I think I see a trend...
Everybody has a trend until it gets punched right in the face
Soooo....limit trapping the post, guard the perimeter, and throw ramen in Tominaga's face whenever he gets the ball....
Depending on who you ask, "NU" will definitely win. I prefer to call those guys UNL though.
The 3pt dimension concerns me most - B1G is already shooting 38.5% (10th) against us, and they chuck it on 33.1% of their FGs (4th). Given how 'Cats propensity to protect paint and double hard in the post - giving up 3s is by design. However, if they're comfortable shooting on those home nets, this is gonna be tough for us.
Cats have to score, but defensively it seems like this is one of those games where they need to be on it for their rotations and not just leave an open shooter in line of sight of the ball handler in the post, and Nebby needs to not have random guys have a career night.
A jump shooting center could draw Matt from the post and open up a lot of back door cuts as well.
I have confidence Cats schemes will be solid and account for these things, so it will come down to execution and any minor adjustments in game.
A jump shooting center could draw Matt from the post and open up a lot of back door cuts as well.
I have confidence Cats schemes will be solid and account for these things, so it will come down to execution and any minor adjustments in game.
I agree with your groupings and your last sentence but feel compelled to object to your adjective of “dreadful”. Minnesota is certainly not dreadful (currently 3-3 and giving MSU a great game on the road), and I would venture Rutgers are Michigan are just down from where they’ve been, which still leaves them as good. So, the group ahead of them being “not that good” is questionable to me as well. I hate to disparage any BIG team any time, and there doesn’t seem a reason to do so this year with the talent in the league.
True. That confidence can be self-fulfilling. Looks like he has a quick release as well. From a cultural perspective, I enjoy seeing a guy from Japan bring that kind of swagger. Certainly doesn't fit the stereotype.
100%. So hard to win on the road in this league. Feels like the league champ will have 4 losses.
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