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Football Scoop: SDSU’s Lujan Leading NU OC Candidate

This got buried on the other thread, but I thought it sufficiently interesting to share separately. It isn’t Pete Thamel, Adam Rittenberg, etc., but Football Scoop is actually pretty dialed in:

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Take your victory lap, @CoralSpringsCat . Must say that I‘m still a little skeptical of a defensive-minded HC handing the reins of his offense to a young and relatively unseasoned OC, but in Braun we trust. Perhaps there are more veteran guys anticipated as staff members.

Now go bring Gronowski with you ;)

FOOTBALL Hiring trends

I kind of put this out in a jumble on my Twitter, I'll see if I can organize my thoughts better here.

Something I thought interesting is that if Lujan is indeed the OC, and if Anderson is indeed out at OL, the non-NU P5 coaching experience on staff dwindles down to basically zero.

McGarigle was LB coach at Illinois for a year and QC for Green Bay in the NFL but that's about it on the staff. Smith and Binns both have QC/GA stints but that's a whole other ballgame.

This movement started with Fitz in the Spring of 23 making all five hires from G5 or FCS schools and it's something I think Braun will continue. Since McGarigle is from the NFL, once Anderson is gone and if the hires for TE/ST and OL are made from G5/FCS ranks, there will be ZERO assistants on staff directly from a previous P5 job.

But, before that, Fitz hired almost exclusively laterally in P5 or down from the league. By my count, there were six assistants hired from 2017-22: Ryan Smith, Jim O'Neil, Mike Bajakian, Tim McGarigle, Kurt Anderson and Jeff Genyk. All six had prior P5 or NFL experience the season before taking the job.

I don't necessarily mean this as a critique, I think McGarigle and Smith were both great hires. I just thought it was really interesting to highlight what seems like an inflection point in the program from finding or finding guys at a higher or equal level that either aren't working out or giving them a promotion to drop a level to promoting guys from G5/FCS to take their next step.
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+/- for the Pain in Champaign

There weren't a lot of bright spots for NU in the first game of 2024.
I cut out the last 4:55 as "garbage time" but probably could have tossed the entire 2nd half.
Justin Mullins came into the game at 4:55, with Illinois ahead 82-55.
Mullins attempted his first field goal, a jumper, which was blocked. He also committed 3 fouls.
Luke Hunger had 5 points, a rebound and an assist in garbage time to pad out a mixed effort.

PlayerMinutesNU PtsILL PtsRaw +/-Player AdjustGame +/-
Martinelli243552-17+5.0+1.6
Berry294668-22+4.3-0.1
Preston61011-1+2.0+1.0
Hunger142031-11+1.3+1.0
Clayton4712-5-1.5-2.5
Nicholson142540-15+0.2-2.8
Buie273766-29-0.2-6.0
Langborg244254-12-5.1-7.5
Barnhizer335376-23-5.9-10.5

From a team perspective, NU really got walloped when Boo Buie was on the court. Not sure what was going on, but I hope I don't see it again. My guess is that he couldn't guard anyone on Illinois.
When Nicholson was on the court, NU got outscored 40-25 in about 14.4 minutes. Illinois scored 17 points in the first 5 minutes. By possession, Illinois scored 3,2,2,2,0,3,2,3 before the first TV timeout.

On the less grim side... Ty Berry and Nick Martinelli competed.

Berry had a really difficult time with Domask, giving away 3 inches and 30 lbs, but at least he didn't quit. Martinelli defended Domask on one occasion and stayed right on him, forcing an airball from a red hot scorer. Unfortunately everybody else watched an Illinois player grab the errant shot and dunk it. It was that type of night. We were a step slow at every position and Illinois made almost everything. The Illini were 25 of 38 inside the arc and 10 of 18 outside it. They shredded us. A compliment to their coach, gameplan and execution. Their big guy Hawkins, went out to the perimeter, dragging our centers out there, enabling the taller Illini players to punish our guards inside. Our double teams were notably ineffective.

And now for the bright spots... Luke Hunger displayed his shooting touch from the perimeter, making 2 of 3 from outside the arc.
More importantly, the lineup of Hunger/Martinelli/Barnhizer/Berry/Langborg was effective against Illinois. With Buie on the bench, that lineup won their 2 segments by a combined 18-16 over almost 8 minutes of action. Hopefully we see that lineup when Buie needs a rest. All other lineups with Hunger at center got outscored 15-2 in 6 minutes.

The lineup of Nicholson/Martinelli/Barnhizer/Berry/Buie (which has been our best, but rarely plays) got 4 minutes of time and we got outscored 7-4. That was the segment early in the 2nd half where Nicholson missed a layup with his left hand and dunked an offensive rebound. I would really like to see that group of 5 playing together often, instead of rarely.

The pieces are there, but the offense looks really stagnant and one-dimensional, with Buie trying to do a lot by himself and not much going on to create easy shots.
Defensively, we need to be able and willing to switch to zone if necessary. (Sorry Gato).

Lastly, according to my ratings, this was the Illini's best game of the season and NU's 3rd worst (behind Chicago State and Detroit Mercy).

Garnett Hollis draft prospects

Watching him this year, he was pretty close to lockdown. I don't have the detailed stats in front of me (not sure if anyone has the PF Focus numbers or something) but it seemed opposing QBs were largely avoiding him the second half of the season and didn't have much success when they did target him. On top of that, he was very good in run support - in particular his game against Utah jumped out.

From googling though I don't see much reporting on his potential draft status. I think that might be bc he wasn't on many folks' radar before the season started and the NFL draft reporting cycle for 2024 hasn't really picked up yet. But to my untrained eye, I would think he'd be a mid-round pick with some upside from there depending on testing numbers. He has at least one more year of eligibility if he wants it I believe and could improve that projection, but depending on where he stacks up could see him going pro. Curious on thoughts from others?

Similar question for Coco Azema, though his injury complicates the evaluation process which could hurt him. And while he was a great Safety for us, he doesn't jump out to me as much as an NFL prospect as Hollis.

Rick

UW final series injury

Discussion by Rittenberg about the injury to Dillon Johnson. I was questioning running the ball 3x due to risk of turnover or injury. However I agree most teams would run it and not take knees because they couldn’t completely run the clock out. Could also see not wanting to have a backup carry the ball (fumble risk) or run Penix into the line.

However I did think the clock was supposed to restart after the injury, at least picking up where the play clock left off (UW shouldn’t get another full play clock with the time running). It should, if that’s not a rule already.

Also an interesting point raised in the comments that injury stoppage could be an incentive for the defense to hurt someone.

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Champaign, Illinois

The Vegas line's been destroyed
The bottom card's been dealt
No one knows like you know right now
How truly bad it felt

All Tuesday we wasted
On talkin’ up the game
Domask killed off our dream
and put the Cats away

Oh and if you think lovin' God
Will give our Cats some joy
You will not go to heaven,
You'll go to Champaign, Illinois

You will not go to heaven.
You’ll go to Champaign, Illinois

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Playoff games, ,,,

well those were a couple of good games...what stood out to me was 3 of those teams were super creative on offense and Harbaugh is an illusionist. Harbaugh is a Native American trickster...master of disguise. But most of these teams were quicker and stronger at the receiver position, were able to send everyone out on pass plays (protect the qb with just 5 olineman), were able to use lots of motion sometime multiple motion on the same play, use receivers in motion as lead blockers , lots of pulling olineman on run plays and often employed a fullback (superback) who was versatile. I am sure this is stuff known to us but we dont employ because we dont have the players. Was fun to watch but I still like a muddled 13-10 West Division game (sayonara)
which reminds me ...snow coming next week.
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Expectations for Big Ten play

Okay, we’ve seen a fair amount out of this group. They’ve notched an epic signature win against #1 Purdue, and picked up a very nice win against Dayton. Everything else was more or less par for the course, minus the very bad CS loss. NU is 10-2 and 1-0 heading into the new year.

What do people expect the final record to be?

And what do people believe it would realistically need to be to punch our ticket for the program’s first ever back-to-back appearances in the NCAA tournament?

Happy New Year & Go ‘Cats!
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