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NIL Budget needs to be $20M/year to be competitive

NU signs ~18 kids a year

~12 of them should be mid/high three star kids getting $200K upfront to sign. Dylan Senda’s and similar

~6 of them should be four star kids, not good enough for Alabama but solid players in key positions like RB/QB/pass rusher. Justin Jacksons and Anto Saka’s. Call that ~$350K/each

Total signing day budget of ~$4M/year

That means the total roster is ~$16M/year, assuming all 4 years of classes

Throw in an extra $4M/year for retention bonuses

Thats $20M/year for a good roster.

If you want to do transfers, Throw in another ~$5M/year for transfers

A competitive Big10 roster should about $20M-$25M a year. That should be good for 7 to 10 wins a year and solid performance

NU needs to hit that via NIL or for revenue sharing

Northwestern gears up to hang onto The Hat vs. No. 22 Illinois


In his last press conference of the regular season, David Braun evaluated the team’s quarterback play, discussed its transfer portal outlook, and more.

OT: Indiana OSU

While I think OSU will win this by 10 or so, I think this is one of the most intriguing B1G games in years. I would love to see Indiana win, and would particularly enjoy seeing OSU, Michigan and PSU all shut out of the title game after all the whining their fan bases did about the West Division having a team in that game before the great chaos was instituted this year.

Balcony view of the B1G w/kenpom goggles

Before we headed into the turkey tourneys, I thought to take a look at the B1G from the balcony view with kenpom goggles:

Teamkp ratingOverall RecordNet RatingBest WinWorst LossNon Con SOS
Purdue155-1+22.10 Alabama, kp10@Marquette, kp12+3.81
OSU184-1+21.67Texas, kp27 (Neutral)@TX A&M, kp19-0.06
UCLA225-1+20.20Idaho St, kp235New Mexico, kp53 (Neutral)-8.91
Wisconsin267-0+19.30Pitt, kp17 (Neutral)None+1.42
Michigan284-1+19.13TCU, kp60Wake Forest, kp97 (Semi-Away)-3.03
Illinois294-1+18.79Oakland, kp226Alabama, kp10 (Semi-Away)-11.68
Maryland475-1+17.95Villanova, kp63 (Neutral)Marquette, kp12-9.91
Oregon335-0+17.91@Oregon St, kp100None-3.73
PSU355-0+17.61Purdue Fort Wayne, kp119None-10.92
Indiana364-0+17.21South Carolina, kp79None-8.12
MSU444-1+15.73Samford, kp136Kansas, kp9 (Neutral)-7.12
Iowa465-1+15.37Washington St., kp89 (Semi-Home)Utah St., kp45 (Neutral)-6.54
Nebraska504-1+14.63@Creighton, kp30St. Mary's, kp42 (Neutral)-2.16
Northwestern615-1+12.53Montana St., kp167Dayton, kp38 (Away)-7.91
Rutgers794-1+10.08St. Peters, kp202Kennesaw St, kp160 (Away)-8.98
Minnesota834-1+9.63Yale, kp98North Texas, kp73-6.57
USC854-1+9.25Chattanooga, kp172Cal, kp124-7.76
Washington864-1+8.87UMass Lowell, kp126@Nevada, kp34-1.71

Quick rundown of meanings:
  • kp rating: kenpom rating
  • Net Rating: the difference between a team's offensive and defensive efficiency.
  • Neutral vs. Semi-Away, Semi-Home: kenpom differentiates a "neutral" game when it seems more closer to one of the teams. For example, when Iowa played Wazzu, it was in Moline, IL - which is considered "Semi-Home" for the Hawkeyes given the proximity of the Quad Cities. (Conversely, that's considered Semi-Away for the Cougs.)
  • Non Con SOS: Non Conference Strength of Schedule. kenpom calculates strength of schedule as what represents the strength of team that would be expected to win half its games against this team's schedule.
Overall, the B1G is considered the 3rd toughest per kenpom Conference rankings with a +16.09 Net Rating, (behind SEC +18.55 and XII +16.99, but ahead of Big East +14.15). He determines this by the expected Net Rating of a team that projects to go .500 in conference play.


Quickish takes:
  • Best B1G win so far (tie) : Purdue over 'Bama, Wisconsin over Pitt. Tie because despite slight difference in ranking, Bucky did theirs away from home.
  • Worst B1G loss: USC losing at home to Cal. While Kennesaw St was a worse kp rated team, that's still a road game.
  • NU has a +12.53 Net Rating, but at this point it projects a +16.09 to get to 10 wins:
    • Offense: Currently 109.0 - Can this team get closer to the '24 edition (115.9), or is this '23 redux (109.9)
    • Defense: Currently 96.5 - by season's end the elite '23 team was 94.3/22nd in D1. Hard to imagine this team improving during the rugged B1G season. That '23 team gave up 102.6 in to B1G opponents, which was 3rd best in the Collins era. The First Dance squad only surrendered 100.5.

Braun

I am tired of Braun kicking field goals on short yardage fourth downs. Play to win. Play the percentages. I know this is different than kicking a 50 plus yard field goal but we are not going to be in the red zone very often against Michigan. We need touchdowns. And if you don’t get it, they are backed up in their own end zone.

Blame the Moose for the loss, but there is Hope Ahead

It didn't help any that the Mojo Moose was a no show for our recent losses, but I remain cautiously optimistic for the game ahead and even a slim chance to qualify for a bowl with 5 wins given that theoretically there is the possibility of 3 slots remaining open if I have properly interpreted Styre's projections.

That said, the sun does continue to rise as evidenced in this below linked shared Playlist of my recent Music Videos posted as YouTube Shorts over the past 10 days:

Login to view embedded media


FWIW, here is the backstory regarding the scenic Alaskan views and included music:

Here is a summary of my video shorts posted on YouTube in the last ten days with the added music, each of which has generated between 99 and over 500 views to date.



The most recent from just a few days ago with over 300 views already is titled, “Captain Cook Peers Over Namesake Waters as they Reflect Glowing Sunset above Alaska Range and Mount Spurr Volcano.”



The added music is “Surrender” by Natalie Taylor. Natalie is a 38 year-old singer-song writer and she co-wrote “Surrender” with her husband Jon Howard in 2015 although it was five years later during COVID that it became a “Sleeper Hit” and certified Platinum. Like most of her music it is emotionally-driven and of Folk genre.



Preceding was my presently over 500 views YouTube Short music Video titled, “Morning Moon Above Alaska iced Ocean and Frozen Mountains of the Alaska Range.”



The added music is “Paris” by Else. Else is a French electronic music duo known best for their iconic instrumental “Paris” which also came to popularity in 2020.



Prior to that was my also over 500 views YouTube Short titled, “Alaska Fire Lit Sunrise Over Majestic Snow Capped Chugach Mountains.”



The added music is “Somewhere Only We Know” as first recently sung by Gustixa and Rhianne two years ago although the original was by Keane over twenty years ago. Gustixa’s singing has been described as that of an angelic voice.



My first YouTube Short music video was posted just ten days ago on November 14th and with its present 99 views is titled, “First Frosted Trees of the Season.”



The added music is “Epic Instrumentation,” by Aleksandr Shamaluev originally from Ukraine. He is known to offer the best of instrumental music.



I have put these four music video shorts into a playlist as linked below:



Link to Music Video Playlist:

FB RECRUITING Recruit Roundup: Preckel and Lafayette upset reigning Missouri champs


Northwestern's Class of 2025 went 5-1 in the playoffs week with Robby Preckel leading a major upset of Missouri's reigning champ, Cardinal Ritter. Read about all of that and more in this week's roundup.

Imprecise +/- from the Pepperdine practice

PlayerMinutesNU PtsPepp PtsRaw +/-Player +/-***Net +/-***
Mullins275429+25+2.2+7.2
Barnhizer315534+21+0.5+4.7
Martinelli335635+21+1.5+5.7
Leach274332+11+3.7+5.9
Nicholson183218+14+1.7+4.5
Hunger193224+8-2.1-0.5
Windham132316+7+0.4+1.8
Ciavarino8159+6-2.8-1.6
Berry111013-3-5.1-5.7

As soon as Fitzmorris entered the game, I ended it. So we won 64-42 in 37:15 of action.
Nobody told him the game was over, however. He was as fired up as any Northwestern player this season.

The "Player +/-" numbers are not the same as I usually calculate - more of a rough estimate. Ty Berry at the bottom of the 9 man rotation for the 2nd game in a row.

When Barnhizer/Martinelli/Mullins/Leach had the floor together, we pummeled Pepperdine 23-7 in less than 9 minutes.
when Nicholson joined those 4 guys, it was 13-3 in 3:44.
with Hunger it was 10-4 in 5:14.
Either way, we dominated them.

Ty Berry only played when Nicholson was at the 5, Martinelli at the 4 and Barnhizer at the 3.
He didn't play with Luke Hunger, Angelo Ciaravino or Justin Mullins at all.

I'm not going to use this game in the season analysis. I think Lehigh vs Pepperdine is a good matchup.

Recruit Roundup: Preckel and Lafayette upset reigning Missouri champs


Northwestern's Class of 2025 went 5-1 in the playoffs week with Robby Preckel leading a major upset of Missouri's reigning champ, Cardinal Ritter. Read about all of that and more in this week's roundup.

Article on NU QB commit

If this was posted earlier and is thus old news, sorry, I didn't see it anywhere.

FB RECRUITING Visit sealed the deal for new Northwestern LB commit Josh Veldman


@lou v talked to Northwestern's latest commit to their Class of 2025, LB Josh Veldman, about the process that led him to commit to NU.
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Michigan offers $10.5M in NIL for local QB

This story leaked this morning. Apparently Michigan offered $10.5M in NIL for a QB currently committed to LSU

Here's the crazy thing:
  • The QB is local to Michigan. Michigan theoretically already has a built in advantage from that
  • Michigan has recent QB history success (JJ McCarthy being a top 10 pick)
Pre-NIL, Michigan likely has a decent shot to land him.

With NIL, Michigan has to offer $10.5M just to compete for a prospect they have a LOT of advantages for already

I've said before I think Jackson "gets it" and is going to be going heavy on NIL, but I am increasingly worried NU is going to miss the boat on this.

It could very quickly get to the point where you gotta pay $250K upfront just to land a solid 3 star kid. NU needs to be ready for that
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