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The Curse of High Expectations

I've been thinking about the EIU game a lot and while I was very frustrated Friday night, I've come around to actually being happy about what we saw. So much of our disappointment is about the high expectations set by the two best seasons in recent memory, as well as the best NU player of all time. It's not that we're spoiled (lord know we're still behind pretty much every significant program historically speaking), but just that we've gotten so used to Boo and pulling them out or blowing them out that when NU plays a close game against a "bad" opponent it feels like a let down. But what about the positives?

1) NU won the game without the three top scorers from last year, including the one expected to lead the team this year
2) NU won the game despite Martinelli having his worst game of the season (by far). He still scored 16 points
3) NU got to the line a lot, especially Leach. This is a weapon NU has pretty much never had. Even Boo, for all his drives and great free-throw shooting, would rarely get into double-digit attempts in a game. Leach had 16 attempts, and he made 15 of them.
4) NU blew its lead against a bad opponent, but they didn't completely choke it away, made the shots when it mattered, and they eventually put EIU away. Far cry from Chicago State last year (when there were people who said it would be impossible to make the tourney afterwards).
5) Maybe it was later than we'd like, but when NU *really* had to put on the stifling defense, it did so. 9-0 in overtime.
6) New contributors stepped up, like Mullins and Jello. And they played in the OT, rather than at the end of the bench.

Meanwhile, NU is 3-1, about what reasonable people expected, and NOBODY on the NCAA committee is going to remember the EIU game (a win's a win) like they were forced to remember Chicago State last year. We can gnash our teeth all we want, but NU is doing just fine.

And Barnhizer is likely coming back tomorrow. He will be rusty, so we'll have to lean on Martinelli and Leach for at least one more game, but just having Barnhizer on the floor should make things easier for Marty and Leach (and Berry, who will hopefully see his volume of wide-open threes increase with Barnhizer back).

I am happy with where this team is right now, even with the cracks we've seen in the last couple of games.

Villanova's Mark Jackson officially named Northwestern's new athletic director

Justin Mullins Appreciation Thread

Mullins appears to be the unsung hero for the Cats this year. While most are rightfully lauding Martinelli's huge jump this year, Mullins is right there with him. More excitedly, Collins is seeing it too, and it's translating into minutes. Mullins started the second half (when Windham was in foul trouble and was ineffective), played most, if not all, of the OT, and just seemed to be in the middle of the action throughout.

Last night Mullins missed a wide-open airball early in the game, but he more than made up for it after, frequently getting behind his man for layups and a powerful dunk. His numbers in four games this year:

Lehigh (23 mins) - two points, nine rebounds, two steals, one block
Dayton (23 mins) - zero points, five rebounds, three assists, two steals
UIC (27 mins) - five points, seven rebounds, three assists, two steals
EIU (34 mins) - six points, five rebounds, two assists, FIVE steals, and one block

He's second in the conference at 2.75 spg and 16th at 6.5 rpg...as a reserve.

+/- for the unexpected nail-biter vs EIU

I did not expect to be running numbers for this game, but when you need overtime to win... I figured there might be something interesting in the stats - and there's only 1 way to find out...

PlayerMinutesNU PtsEIU PtsRaw +/-Player +/-Net +/-
Leach426455+9+5.25+7.05
Mullins345140+11+3.84+6.04
Martinelli395947+12+0.73+3.13
Nicholson284332+11+0.01+2.21
Ciaravino233324+9-1.64+0.16
Hunger172426-2-1.21-1.61
Windham91214-2-1.33-1.73
Berry334952-3-5.65-6.25

Star of the game was Jalen Leach, with Justin Mullins getting a lot of the credit as well.

Most notable roster move was Coach Collins going with both Ciaravino AND Mullins for the entire overtime instead of veteran Ty Berry. (Berry played 31 seconds but only when Leach came out of the game). It is possible that we'll see more of this big lineup (Nicholson/Martinelli/Mullins/Ciavarino/Leach) but Ty Berry doesnt want to fall into the position of playing 2nd fiddle to Leach. They're similar players, but Leach handles the ball better. And Collins won't simply forget how well that lineup played in OT - even after Barnhizer returns. Plug Barnhizer in for Ciaravino and Ty's still watching from the bench a little more than expected this year.

Of course the downside of this is that EIU just isn't very good. So this may be one of those games where we look back and say "Yeah, that EIU game was an early indication" (of what? I don't know)
Berry not the same player? Leach a clutch performer? Mullins forcing Collins to play him? I guess we stay tuned!

Anybody who was on the court for overtime got a nice +9 for their raw +/-, so I wasn't going to read much into it.
But then I noticed that Hunger played with those same 4 guys (Martinelli, Mullins, Leach and Ciavarino) toward the end of regulation and that group won their segment 5-0.
For the game that group of 4 throttled EIU 16-2 in 10 minutes of action. (9-2 with Matt and 5-0 with Luke).

Big Ten TV Schedule: Week Three (11/18-11/24)

All times CENTRAL. All games available nationally unless otherwise indicated. I will add announcers as they are assigned, except for BTN+ games.

First, the NU games:

Montana State @ Northwestern
Tuesday, November 19
8:00 PM, BTN
PxP: Jason Ross Jr.
Color: Brian Butch

Pepperdine @ Northwestern
Friday, November 22
7:00 PM, BTN+ (streaming only)

And the rest:

Monday, November 18

Miami (OH) @ Michigan
5:00 PM, BTN
PxP: Jack Kizer
Color: Nik Stauskas

Texas-Rio Grande Valley @ Wisconsin
7:00 PM, BTN
PxP: Jeff Levering
Color: Bruce Weber

Tuesday, November 19

Cleveland State @ Minnesota
6:00 PM, BTN
PxP: Cory Provus
Color: Shon Morris

Canisius @ Maryland
6:00 PM, BTN+ (streaming only)

Evansville @ Ohio State
6:00 PM, BTN+ (streaming only)

Rider @ Iowa
7:00 PM, BTN+ (streaming only)

Samford @ Michigan State
7:00 PM, Peacock (streaming only)
PxP: Jac Collinsworth
Color: Stephen Bardo

Purdue @ Marquette
8:00 PM, FS1
PxP: Jason Benetti
Color: Bill Raftery

Wednesday, November 20

Purdue Fort Wayne @ Penn State
6:00 PM, BTN+ (streaming only)

Merrimack @ Rutgers
7:00 PM, Peacock (streaming only)
PxP: Jason Knapp
Color: Nik Stauskas

Illinois vs. Alabama @ Birmingham, AL (CM Newton Classic)
8:00 PM, SECN
PxP: Tom Hart
Color: Jimmy Dykes

San Jose State @ USC
9:00 PM, Peacock (streaming only)
PxP: Ted Robinson
Color: Darren Collinson

Idaho State @ UCLA
10:00 PM, BTN
PxP: Guy Haberman
Color: Don MacLean

Thursday, November 21

UNC Greensboro @ Indiana
5:30 PM, FS1
PxP: Connor Onion
Color: Robbie Hummel

Tarleton State @ Michigan
7:30 PM, BTN
PxP: Kevin Kugler
Color: Jordan Taylor

Oregon @ Oregon State
9:00 PM, ESPN+ (streaming only)
PxP: Ted Robinson
Color: PJ Carlesimo

Friday, November 22

Wisconsin vs. UCF @ White Sulphur Springs, WV (Greenbrier Tipoff)
4:00 PM, CBS Sports Network
PxP: Jack Benjamin
Color: Matt McCall

Campbell @ Ohio State
5:00 PM, BTN
PxP: Jack Kizer
Color: Robbie Hummel

Iowa vs. Utah State @ Kansas City, MO (Hall of Fame Classic)
7:00 PM, BTN
PxP: Jake Eisenberg
Color: Jess Settles

Nebraska @ Creighton
7:00 PM, FS1
PxP: Kevin Kugler
Color: Nick Bahe

Cal State Fullerton @ UCLA
9:00 PM, BTN
PxP: JB Long
Color: Don MacLean

Alcorn State @ Washington
9:00 PM, BTN+ (streaming only)

Saturday, November 23

Marshall @ Purdue
11:00 AM, BTN+ (streaming only)

Maryland-Eastern Shore @ Illinois
3:00 PM, BTN+ (streaming only)

Sunday, November 24

Maryland vs. Villanova @ Newark, NJ (Empire Classic)
12:00 PM, ESPN
PxP: John Schriffen
Color: Jay Williams

Rutgers @ Kennesaw State
12:00 PM, CBS Sports Network
PxP: Alex Del Barrio
Color: BJ Taylor

Wisconsin vs. Pittsburgh @ White Sulphur Springs, WV (Greenbrier Tipoff)
4:30 PM, CBS Sports Network
PxP: Jack Benjamin
Color: Matt McCall

Grambling @ USC
6:00 PM, BTN+ (streaming only)

Northwestern offers 2026 Chicago tackle Claude Mpouma at Wrigley Field


I talked to 2026 tackle Claude Mpouma from Chicago Phillips about his recruitment from Northwestern and his offer pregame last week.

Martinelli comp

Martinelli reminds me more and more of Doug McDermott in his Creighton days with each passing game. Just finds a way to put it on the rim with touch from every conceivable angle, backs his guy down from 20 feet, does all the little flourishes to draw referee attention. Mart’s perimeter shooting and post passing are way on the rise, too. McBuckets was allegedly not athletic enough to play at the next level and we have seen how that turned out. Just stunning improvement from Nick.

The refs let EIU play graba$$ with Nick all night and good on them for challenging the officials to make a decision on how it was going to go and then sticking with what worked when they swallowed the whistles. The more rotund defender for the Panthers knocked Nick down half a dozen times when he would catch it in the paint and we only got a few whistles. The lanky white guy for them was also putting hands on jersey all night. Teams won’t be able to pull that so easily when Brooks is back. Was nice to see Jalen capitalizing on the fear EIU had of Nick - was really smart by CC and co to have Mart set picks for Leach down the stretch and let Jalen make the right decisions. Get our 95% foul shooter to the line 15 times a night and we will beat plenty of BIG opponents.

This is a really, really good ‘Cats team again.

FOOTBALL Braun preps Northwestern for Michigan with bowl berth on the line


Head coach David Braun previewed the team's matchup with Michigan, talked about the new Ryan Field, and discussed a depth chart decision at his game week press conference.
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Nico Alphabet

I watched Tennessee v Georgia and was impressed by UT QB Nico Alphabet. He has a superior arm that should make NU fans jealous.

I also watched SMU , Kevin Jennings is an athletic QB with a good arm and an offense that can cover for other team deficiencies. I doubt they will make the playoff but their stadium was packed because they are a small school with an exciting winning team.
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New Stadium or Better Players?

Thought this was an interesting article. Obviously our stadium was in the works before NIL became as big as it did - but wonder if you are going to see a worse fan experience / less upgrades of stadiums in lieu of buying better players.

Braun preps Northwestern for Michigan with bowl berth on the line


Head coach David Braun previewed the team's matchup with Michigan, talked about the new Ryan Field, and discussed a depth chart decision at his game week press conference.

New Stadium details/renderings in video from Northwestern and Rittenberg article (incredible sightlines + total cost at $850 million)

Northwestern posted this video (shows the sightlines from the stands as well as new renderings):
Login to view embedded media

"Our worst seat in this stadium is 100 feet closer to the field than the most expensive seat at the Big House," said Pat Ryan Jr.

What do we know about the long-term B1G schedule?

How many protected rivalries does each program have, if any? Is there any prioritization of geographic rivalries on an ongoing basis?

Is there a formula that’s been announced, or just random assignments to this point? (Given general instability, probably silly to announce a long-term formula.)

If you protect only one rivalry, I guess that means you’d guarantee a home-and-home with every program every four years. But NU’s got only one West Coast opponent this season, which of course would tell you that that’s not the structure we’ve seen built.

I really like maintaining familiarity. NU got four West, four East, and one West Coast opponent this season.

Being that the championship is just the top two teams, I’d prefer protected pods off of 4 or 5. A 6-pod structure would also be possible , but that would likely put Iowa and Nebraska going West at least two times a year.

(I mind grueling travel schedules less for the pacific coast schools — their administrations sold them out, so let them deal with it. 🤷‍♂️)

Also Michigan is so beatable. (Can’t pass, and NU can stop the run.) Go Cats Go Cats Go

  • Locked
Temple fired their head coach; rumor has it Braun is high on their list

Braun is a hot commodity.

He also has an incredibly cheap contract.

The Temple Owls may buy him out to steal him to a bigger market.

Look at Matt Rhule. He’s worth $100M now after he turned Temple and Baylor into winners.

If he wins at Temple, then that will get Braun a real contract from a real future Big Ten program like PSU, Virginia, or Miami (Florida).

Luke Hunger through 3 games - increased offense and...

As I reflected on the last 3 games, I was trying to assess what my take on Luke Hunger has been so far. What resonated was that it seems like he's playing more minutes, when he's in the game he's more assertive on offense, and I don't have a positive/negative sense about him defensively. I then scanned his kenpom page to see how his performances align with what I've sensed:

Year%MinORtg%Poss%ShotseFGTS%
20232.6113.426.827.146.448.9
202428.4107.018.417.048.452.2
202545.0111.727.231.65455.9

Your memory in 2024 might suggest that he seemed to play more than 28% of the minutes, but to be more specific, through 18 B1G games, Hunger averaged almost 12 minutes a game (and that included a DNP vs. Illinois). Even after Nicholson's injury, for the remainder of regular season, Luke was only 13.5 minutes per game. Collins finally committed to Hunger in the BTT, where he logged 32 minutes, and then in the tourney Hunger went 29, and 30 mpg. Coming into this season, it made sense with Hunger's growth that he'd earn more minutes, along with the easing in of Nicholson from a foot injury.

So far this year, this bears out as he's been averaging 18 mpg which corresponds to 45% of total minutes of his platoon with Nix. Pending on strategy and real-time foul situation, it's likely to hover around here.

What's fascinating is that he leads the team with %Shots at 31.6. Which roughly means, when he's on the court, he's responsible for 31.6% of that team's shot attempts. (For comparison, last year Boo Buie had 27.7 %Shots, and Boo was our #1 option.). This would be 10th highest among all individual B1G players this year (minimum 40%Poss to qualify). And as you can see - this is way more assertive compared to the previous year. What's also notable is that while Luke's game time in '23 is rather negligble - (he only played sparingly in the non-con due to injury and Collins preference for the more veteran Tydus/Matt pairing), he chucked it at a Boo-esque rate of 27.1. Despite this high usage, while they're not necessarily above average eFG/TS%, he's improving so that it's around average. (NBA average TS% is 56-57).


Extending the rest of his stat line:

YearOReb/DReb%ARate/TORateBlk%Stl%FC/40, FD/40Free Throw RateFree Throw2FG3FG
202324.8/0.06.7/6.4004.4, 4.835.7.600 (3/5).417 (5/12).500 (1/2)
20248.4/12.19.5/13.62.20.56.6, 3.540.684 (26/38).569 (37/65).200 (6/30)
202511.3/4.318.8/15.7004.4, 2.781.000 (2/2).600 (12/20).200 (1/5)


Yep, he's doing better on the offensive end - he's improved in OReb% and Assist Rate. However, so far he's declined in drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line. While, he seems to be around 67-69% FT shooter which isn't great, its still free points. To me this suggests that he's been working outside-in as he's on track to almost double his 3FG takes (assuming he plays 30 games, he's on pace to get to 50 attempts), and perimeter oriented players don't tend to get to the line.

However, I sensed that against UIC he wasn't as perimeter oriented. I checked it out at Torvik and noticed he's trending towards "inside-out":

OpponentDUNKRIMMID3PT
vs. Lehigh0-02-34-41-3
vs. Dayton0-01-31-30-1
vs. UIC2-34-70-00-1

Hunger didn't take any mid-range shots against the Flames, and attacked the paint. He also had his only 2 FTs of the year against the Flames. While he does show a nice shooting stroke, I really prefer Hunger to take this line of attack. He's got the agility and post-moves to wiggle inside, and this puts pressure on the defense and potentially draws more free throws. Of course, he won't go 100% for the year, but let's get closer to the bonus. Also notable that both his Assist Rate has increased - among 5s, that would rate him 3rd in B1G, and while his TORate has ballooned to 15.7, that would still put him at 10th in B1G at his position - which would put him middle of the table for the league. (and much better than Nicholson, who is currently at 22.6.). All in all, there's some really nice greenshoots for him on offense.

As I further scan, I also understand why he isn't getting an impression on defense. His defensive rebounding has gone down significantly (UIC grabbing back 32.4% of their misses definitely wasn't a good showing for the team in that stat. Though he did tap out one yesterday on a free throw miss, and he's showing a propensity for that - that doesn't always get covered.). He hasn't shown up in the Block rates and Steal rates, but to be fair neither of those are expected features of his skill-set.

Assuming Nicholson isn't in foul-trouble, I expect him to be in lineups that are anchored by two upperclassmen guard-wing combo like Berry/Martinelli; Leach/Barnhizer; mix and match - and then two other bench guys: Windham, Mullins, Ciaravino. In that situation, Hunger seems primed to be a great 3rd option; or perhaps a 2nd option as the upperclassmen draw focus. Maybe he gets on a heater, and they keep feeding him - which allows the seniors to "rest" a bit, or focus more on the defensive end.

All in all - I remain hopeful that we're at his "floor," and that he can be a very effective platoon at the 5 for the defensive-minded Nicholson.
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