Maybe both conferences are suffering as a consequence of ending the Challenge.
2023-24 NET ratings thread
- Thread starter Styre
- Start date
Just for the sake of argument, here are the non-conference records from Nov 1 to Dec 31
The Big Ten has 2 teams that have winning records against the Top 50 in non-conference play. Purdue is 5-0. Ohio State is 1-0.
The ACC also has 2 such teams... Duke is 2-1 and Clemson is 2-0.
The Big East also has 2 such teams... Villanova is 2-1 and UConn is 3-1.
The SEC has no team with a winning record against the Top 50 in non-conference play.
The Pac12 has two such teams. Arizona is 4-2 and Utah is 3-2.
The Big 12 has 3 such teams. Kansas is 3-1. Houston is 3-0. Kansas St is 2-1.
| Conference | Top 150 Wins | Top 150 Losses | Top 50 Wins | Top 50 Losses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Ten | 28 | 33 | 15 | 21 |
| Big 12 | 39 | 30 | 11 | 18 |
| SEC | 48 | 42 | 12 | 25 |
| Pac 12 | 24 | 38 | 12 | 24 |
| ACC | 37 | 38 | 13 | 27 |
| Big East | 31 | 30 | 14 | 16 |
The Big Ten has 2 teams that have winning records against the Top 50 in non-conference play. Purdue is 5-0. Ohio State is 1-0.
The ACC also has 2 such teams... Duke is 2-1 and Clemson is 2-0.
The Big East also has 2 such teams... Villanova is 2-1 and UConn is 3-1.
The SEC has no team with a winning record against the Top 50 in non-conference play.
The Pac12 has two such teams. Arizona is 4-2 and Utah is 3-2.
The Big 12 has 3 such teams. Kansas is 3-1. Houston is 3-0. Kansas St is 2-1.
The daily NET trackers that are out there ... that loss dropped us from 48 to 84
A lot of variance because it was mid-December? Maybe, I don't know. But that loss dropped us from 48 to 84 at the time.
NU one of 11 teams with at least four Quad 1 wins at this time.
It is a total joke. No cred at all. Just look at teams like Xavier. A .500 team with no top 20 wins and ranked a universe ahead of NU. Numerous examples. Take a look. It will make any knowledgeable fan puke. Over and over and over.
I have to believe NU will be just fine on Selection Sunday if they continue to play good ball.
GOUNUII
Thanks for responding. Thats definitely a function of the limited # of games to input into the ratings.
It actually points out what would be a useful tweak to the ratings - eliminate the team's best and worst games, treating them as outliers. Thats a common technique, I think.
NU's range between best and worst would be about as big as the range can possibly get!
I understand the idea of weighing performance relative to expectations. Winning by 30 and not by 10 if you are expected to win by 30. But, ultimately, what really, really matters is if you win. By 1 or 100. That's where comparisons to Xavier are a disgrace.
I would expect that no matter where NU ends up in the computer rankings, the committee will very hotly discuss NU, where they should be seeded, etc., and then when people talk about snubs, NU will be mentioned prominently, either as a team that got snubbed because the computer rankings weren't good enough or as a team that took the place of a much more "deserving" team despite a poor NET rating and a bad loss in December.
Then when NU makes the Sweet 16 it'll prove all the doubters wrong and they "just know how to win."
Then when NU makes the Sweet 16 it'll prove all the doubters wrong and they "just know how to win."
A comparison of predictive vs result-based metrics for a subset of teams:
All of these teams are currently showing as anywhere between a 10 seed to out of the tourney at the moment per BracketMatrix, roughly sorted in order. As long as we keep winning games, we should end up ok when it comes time for Selection Sunday.
| Team | NET | KenPom (Predictive) | Strength of Record (Result-based) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NU | 69 | 56 | 27 |
| Nebraska | 47 | 45 | 33 |
| South Carolina | 49 | 52 | 16 |
| Mississippi | 62 | 66 | 17 |
| Kansas State | 71 | 60 | 36 |
| Cincinnati | 37 | 32 | 61 |
| Wake Forest | 46 | 41 | 55 |
| Oregon | 50 | 51 | 50 |
| Colorado | 26 | 21 | 47 |
| Gonzaga | 27 | 19 | 65 |
| Xavier | 41 | 34 | 73 |
| OSU | 57 | 50 | 72 |
All of these teams are currently showing as anywhere between a 10 seed to out of the tourney at the moment per BracketMatrix, roughly sorted in order. As long as we keep winning games, we should end up ok when it comes time for Selection Sunday.
I mean, it's something you'd think the committee SHOULD be doing. Adding common sense to the metrics. Right? Otherwise, why have humans to analyze the computer data. It shouldn't be hard.
Of course, it's the NCAA, so it ... will be hard.
Parlay it with a Buie over on points and I’ve been making pretty good money this season.
If margin of victory moves the NET rankings, then this should help.
I don't know how often Torvik updates, but NU went from ranked 58 to 40 tonight.
He’s usually 30-60 mins faster than KenPom. Not all the predictive metrics (Teamcast) for Bart get updated right away, though.
Buckeyes had a couple of nice non-conference wins over Bama and Santa Clara on a neutral floor. Also beat UCLA which has come on a bit ,lately. This was a very necessary victory. We still need to win a road game or two and weep our home games and I think we are in the dance, regardless of the Big Ten tourney..
Buckeyes are a quality and well ranked team. They certainly looked pretty bad with how poorly the shot tonight and how well NU executed on offense. Awesome that a good blowout win over a good team gives us a big predictive boost.
Challenging to win on the road seems to be the common denominator in the Big Ten.
I’ll be in the house when our boys visit MN next week, so we better get a road win then.
Looked like a real bad team to me. I have no idea what They were running on offense.
Think Holtmann's gonna be on the hot seat pretty soon if they don't turn things around. He's had a habit of starting seasons hot and then tanking in conference play. Never made it past the second round of the tourney and lost a 2-15 game during the COVID year.
Xavier just lost to UConn by 43. That'll probably drop them a bit.
Isn't the win over Dayton a top 50 non conference win? Aren't they ranked about 16th?
They were mentioning it last night on BTN. Something about our Kenprom moving up 9 spots? Maybe as a result of the combination of the IL win as well as the big win over OSU
Is it partly because it is still relatively early? Over the whole season the Chicago State loss might not mean a lot but early in the season it sure does. A bad Quad 4 or worse loss
We lost to Mississippi State on a neutral court so that made us 1-1 against the Top 50, if thats what you mean...
I assume there are several of us who are quite happy that UConn slaughtered Xavier by 43 points today.
Folks in this and other threads deserve credit for pointing out beforehand that UConn was underrated by Ken Pom and that Xavier was overrated.
And guess who was right? We were.
But this really points out the flaws of margin of victory (a.k.a. efficiency) approach.
Unfortunately the NET is no better.
The problem is that if you hand a set of ratings to a group of people and tell those people that the numbers are "very scientific" they are going to be biased in favor of the numbers - no matter how flawed the numbers are. Because they don't know better.
A great week has NU all the way up to #59, a much more comfortable spot given their resume. The Rhode Island win has dropped into Quad 4, but that doesn't make much difference.
QUAD 1 (4-4)
H #2 Purdue - W
A #11 Wisconsin - L
H #14 Illinois - W
A #14 Illinois - L
H #17 Dayton - W
H #25 Michigan State - W
N #36 Mississippi State - L
A #60 Nebraska - L
QUAD 2 (2-0)
H #68 Ohio State - W
A #126 Penn State - W
QUAD 3 (2-0)
H #81 Maryland - W
N #120 Arizona State - W
QUAD 4 (7-1)
N #203 Rhode Island - W
H #261 Jackson State - W
H #274 Western Michigan - W
H #281 Binghamton - W
H #285 Northern Illinois - W
H #286 Chicago State - L
A #301 DePaul - W
H #361 Detroit Mercy - W
This week features a Quad 1 road game at Purdue and a Quad 2 road game at Minnesota.
QUAD 1 (4-4)
H #2 Purdue - W
A #11 Wisconsin - L
H #14 Illinois - W
A #14 Illinois - L
H #17 Dayton - W
H #25 Michigan State - W
N #36 Mississippi State - L
A #60 Nebraska - L
QUAD 2 (2-0)
H #68 Ohio State - W
A #126 Penn State - W
QUAD 3 (2-0)
H #81 Maryland - W
N #120 Arizona State - W
QUAD 4 (7-1)
N #203 Rhode Island - W
H #261 Jackson State - W
H #274 Western Michigan - W
H #281 Binghamton - W
H #285 Northern Illinois - W
H #286 Chicago State - L
A #301 DePaul - W
H #361 Detroit Mercy - W
This week features a Quad 1 road game at Purdue and a Quad 2 road game at Minnesota.
#59 is pretty much an insult at this point.
I am working on various algorithms and have two I like, but need further refinement.
One has us at #36, the other at #42.
Obviously the one that has us at #36 is the smarter one.
Its somehow weird that we are 4-4 against the top 60 (and won all but one other game) and are 59th. Like, are the other 59 teams all better against Quad 1? (Impossible).
I don't know. Maybe none. How many have a win against #2 and #14?
I don't know the "penalty" for a December Q4 loss. Like, if we didn't have that loss but were 2-6 v Q1 with PU/ILL losses, is that somehow better?
Mississippi St. also has a quad 4 loss, but they also beat the 'Cats head-to-head.
Minnesota is a tough quad 2 game. Would be a real bummer to lose both games this week so let’s hope that doesn’t happen!
I’ll be there to help the team have some juice. Keep Boo buoyed.
MN is, IMO, terrible. Stumbled somehow on a 3-1 start, lost 4 in a row before needing a second half come back to steal one @ PSU.
One of the most epic threads I've ever seen went through an existential threat for a moment:
Ben Johnson is a Disaster
This isn’t a youth issue, this is a coaching and roster construction issue. It’s not going to get much better next season. When you hire someone who doesn’t have any credentials to be a B1G coach, this is what you get. This is the worst Gopher basketball team I’ve seen in my lifetime.
Damn. Ben Johnson is still around.MN is, IMO, terrible. Stumbled somehow on a 3-1 start, lost 4 in a row before needing a second half come back to steal one @ PSU.
One of the most epic threads I've ever seen went through an existential threat for a moment:
Ben Johnson is a Disaster
This isn’t a youth issue, this is a coaching and roster construction issue. It’s not going to get much better next season. When you hire someone who doesn’t have any credentials to be a B1G coach, this is what you get. This is the worst Gopher basketball team I’ve seen in my lifetime.gopherhole.com
They should be terrible but the reality is they’ve proved their competitiveness isn’t a fluke. They’re solidly mediocre, which is a huge step forward for them.MN is, IMO, terrible. Stumbled somehow on a 3-1 start, lost 4 in a row before needing a second half come back to steal one @ PSU.
One of the most epic threads I've ever seen went through an existential threat for a moment:
Ben Johnson is a Disaster
This isn’t a youth issue, this is a coaching and roster construction issue. It’s not going to get much better next season. When you hire someone who doesn’t have any credentials to be a B1G coach, this is what you get. This is the worst Gopher basketball team I’ve seen in my lifetime.
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