This is where the line opened at Westgate. Feel like this line is pretty disrespectful, but we are used to it at this point.
6.5 point dogs at Stanford
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Home team usually gets 3 points just for hosting, so I don't think 6.5 is that much of a slight. I expect that that line will move as the game gets closer. If it continues to go further against NU, then that's even better bulletin board material for Fitz.
We lost our 4 year starting QB and we’re on the road against a pre-season top 20 program per multiple sites. Plus betting is partly about perception and Stanford has had a lot of big time NFL talent go thru in the past decade.
Correct. People who say lines are disrespectful don’t get lines.
Yeah, I love to gripe about lack of respect but this is ok. It's designed to generate betting
Opening line is 95% off of a power rating number along with the home-field advantage. They may adjust a point or two, based on where they think the line might go. Power ratings are based off numbers, analytics, returning starters, etc. They see our -37 ypg differential last year, and don't think we can pull off those clutch wins again. To me, they don't respect our wins. It may be semantics. Call it perception, I suppose, but isn't that respect too?
Curious, what do you think makes an opening betting line?
Why are we so worried about what others think? Just keep winning and prove ‘em wrong. Stanford was perceived as weak for years until they started winning Rose Bowls, beating on USC and getting big time guys drafted. We do that for 5-10 yrs and perception will change. We want the immediate validation but takes more than a few pretty good years.
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It’s designed to generate equal amount of betting on each team. This line won’t do that. The smart money will bet on the Cats with this spread and our track record against the spread.
We’ll see soon enough. Stanford has lost a ton from last year’s team. This line should be Stanford -3.5 or 4 based on home field advantage and them having more certainty at the QB position. -6.5 is a complete slap in the face for NU. A continuation of what we saw last year pretty much every week.
Me too! Aren't the 'Cats like 750:1 to win the national championship? I'll put $10 on that!
I don't think this line will move much between now and kickoff. Maybe a point or two, but I would be quite surprised if it moves to 3 or less, and my base case would be it staying at -6.
I like the Cats at +6, but this line is about what I would expect.
Thanks. I'll put $20 on that when I'm in Vegas next month. Go 'Cats!
You just explained it, but "they don't respect our wins" is contrary to the data. What I am trying to say is those are two competing ideas. The games NU won by a score are looked at as coin flips. Play the games out 1,000 times and the rationale is that the results would even out. Thus, the W or the L is far less significant - and perhaps not significant at all - to the opening line. "This team knows how to win" is the stuff of Freddy Fannypack placing his bets on Freemont St. with a deep fried twinkie in one hand.
I'd also like to point out that 6 or 6.5 basically would make this game a pick 'em (even) at Ryan Field.
Would people be upset by the line of STAN pk @ NU? I would think not, and folks would probably say yeah, these are even teams, etc.
If so, then you shouldn't be upset by NU +6.5 @ STAN.
Would people be upset by the line of STAN pk @ NU? I would think not, and folks would probably say yeah, these are even teams, etc.
If so, then you shouldn't be upset by NU +6.5 @ STAN.
Well, it being a pick-em at Ryan Field wouldn't suggest they are even teams.... as you just pointed out. So I would feel basically the same way.
I think something along the lines of NU +3 on the road would be a "fair" line (toss-up on neutral field, -2.5 at home). Perhaps cause I'm biased and we've heard so many good things about Hunter, I think it should be pick-em or NU -1 on the road and something like -6 at home.
Us being +6 is a bit disrespectful, but not bad... it's certainly justifiable, and I'm not upset about it at all. I'm perfectly happy to see that line. It doesn't mean anything, all that matters is the W's.
Obviously the line is factoring in the all-important "body clock" intangible.
Two point movement is a lot. The line should be Stanford -3.5 or 4. The current line reflects ignorance or a lack of respect for what NU has accomplished. While NU is breaking in a new QB, Stanford has lost a ton due to graduation and medical retirements from a team last year that was frankly underwhelming. I see no basis for a 6.5 line.
How do you figure? This line implies that Stanford would be a 3.5 favorite against NU at Ryan Field. Home field is usually worth 3 points. This current line does not imply that these are two evenly matched teams.
On paper, NU is breaking in a new QB that is yet to be officially declared, replacing 3 out of 5 starters on the OL, and replacing top receivers in Flynn Nagel and Cam Green on offense. On defense, we are replacing a starting DT, a starting LB, and a starting CB. So for the numbnuts out there who don't know our team that well, one could justify the line. But I agree that I feel disrespected as the defending B1G West champions and kings of the road, 5-0 away from home last year including a season-opening win at Purdue. I predict a convincing NU win against Stanford, with the Hunter Johnson era getting off to an electric start.
I agree with you and that’s why I see this line as disrespectful. The perception is that Stanford is a superior team to NU despite the results of the previous season that clearly indicate otherwise. Does it make a difference when the teams hit the field? No but this is a continuation of a pattern that was very evident last year and that is that the public’s perception of NU’s football program is inferior to the current reality. Why? I guess old perceptions die hard but I wonder if there is something the school is doing or not doing that is also contributing to this.
You should check out what Stanford has lost from last year’s team. They have a lot of question marks going into this season.
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I agree with you in terms of "should", if anything I am more bullish on NU (I said I think it should be a pick-em on the road). But I was disagreeing with you in terms of what "will" happen - I don't think the spread will move that much in our direction, if at all.
I would take over 5 on "what will be the spread at kickoff", but well frankly that's just a bit ridiculous of a thing to gamble on.
It's 3 each way... 3 pts to neutral (from road), and then another 3 to home (from neutral). Granted in NU's case I think HFA at Ryan Field is worth less than 3, so I would say more like 3+2 is the difference, but whatever close enough, 5-6 pts.
In the NBA, depending on the venues, it can often actually be more - the home to road line splits in the Portland Denver series, for example, were at 9-10 pts (trying to filter out for the zig zag effect and other factors that can change from game to game).
I have always viewed it a bit differently. Home field is worth 3 points for the home team. If the teams are evenly matched, the home team should be a 3 point favorite. If it’s a pick em game, the betting public believes the visiting team is superior. If you are at home and are a 6.5 point favorite, then the odds makers and betting public believe you are a superior team to your opponent. That appears to be the case with Stanford against NU.
What you just described is correct but at odds with your prior comment where you said the difference between home and away is 3 points, rather than the difference between home and neutral being 3 points. So I think agrees with my most recent comment. Anyways, not a big deal, moving on.
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Fitz will probably want to get his bet on the Cats in before he names the starting QB.
Stanford Stadium isn't exactly Autzen.....and the game will be played 3 weeks before school is in session, so by the same logic as you use for Ryan Field the Stanford home field point spread is <3.
For what it's worth, NU is 37-26-2 ATS over the last 5 years, winning at a 58.7% clip. That's 7th among teams that have been playing all 5 years, and 2nd of power conference teams (Wazzu is 38-26). Interestingly enough, directly behind us is Stanford in T-8 with 38-27-2.
Over the L10Y we are 67-59-2 (53%). Since 2003 (as far back as the data goes) we are 104-90-4 (54%). To beat a -110 vig, you need to win ~52.5%. So let's all take our talents to Nevada to take advantage of this market inefficiency! It'd be a pretty low Sharpe ratio trade though...
Potentially true. Since 2003, though, NU is 43-53-3 ATS at home (45%), and an incredible 51-31-1 ATS (62%) on the road. Which confirms the casual observation many of us have that we play better (relatively speaking, and maybe even on an absolute basis) on the road.
I would have had no idea going in, but for what it's worth Stanford is 54-43 at home over that period (56%), and 49-37-3 on the road (57%), so no apparent discernible difference. Since 2003, Stanford is the #3 overall team ATS (behind Temple and Utah).
In the last 5 years, we are 18-6 ATS on the road (75%), and 16-17-2 ATS at home (48.5%). Which is kind of ridiculous (the road ATS record). A statistical aberration - by some quick math I think it is about a 0.3% likelihood that one could produce that record or better (using a one-sided distribution) if it were truly random.
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Yes, home field is worth 3 (generally; a really strong home field could be worth an extra half point or full point), but you forget home field for both teams. It is a 6 point swing, then.
At home, Stanford is -6 or -6.5.
On a neutral field, Stanford is -3 or -3.5.
At Ryan Field, it's basically a pick 'em.
Edit: the above isn't my opinion. It's fact based on the current line.
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