A few observations

[Secho99]

1) Coming up short against Wisconsin, a likely 4 seed as of today, without Barnhizer doesn't mean we're a bad team. Yes, we're probably somewhere between the 12th and 17th-best Big 10 team now but still a top 60-ish team in the country. We just play in an unforgiving league and came up on the wrong end of some close ones we needed to win. I'm not giving up on these guys making a run to some sort of postseason play.

2) As a Pacific NW resident/native, I'm loving the upcoming trip up this way even though they'll be late start times for most fans watching on TV. I'm happy to be able to be close enough to support the team in person, I'm driving to Seattle on Saturday and Eugene next Tuesday to attend both games.

3) There's been a lot of talk about Nicholson on another thread. EvanMiya has a metric called "Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating" (DBPR) that measures a player's total impact on defense (including how their presence on the floor increases the defensive performance of teammates). Nicholson is tied for 2nd *in the entire Big 10* in this rating with Danny Wolf, just below Morez Johnson. Looking at "on/off the floor" ratings, our defensive rating is 16.4 points better per 100 possessions with Matt on the floor than when he sits. No other player on our team is worth more than 4.6 points per 100 possessions on D, and that's KJ Windham who hasn't played much in conference games. Unsurprisingly, Matt leads our team in raw +/- and we outscored both Wisconsin and Rutgers by 7 points when Matt was on the floor. He's really important despite the lack of development in his offensive game.

4) This may be unpopular, but I don't think "making this Nick's team" is a winning approach the rest of this season. I hope Leach is at least considered option 1B moving forward as he's been playing very well. I like how Leach is able to dribble into good looks from 3 and from the elbow off of high screens, and I think those are much better looks than what Nick throws up 6 or 7 times a game. I love Nick but teams are starting to solve him a bit, and he's forcing shots that just aren't there. I like when the ball moves on offense and Nick is able to get into a move quickly after the catch. I don't like when he gets the ball at the arc and spends 11 seconds backing down a defender only to end up forcing up an off-balance leaner with 3 guys on him. Because he has this funky arsenal of moves it seems like he thinks he can improvise under pressure and it's becoming less successful. He's 18-for-53 the last 3 games, but more concerning is that he's 13-for-36 on 2-pointers. That's too many wasted possessions.

5) Gelo was horribad on Saturday, but he has to play. So does KJ. They're the future of the team. Get them minutes while still keeping the core of Martinelli/Leach/Berry/Nicholson. I used to be higher on Mullins but I'm coming back the other way. Mullins with the other 4 starters is our worst-performing lineup. Let's prioritize the freshmen and use Mullins when needed.

6) I think we'll be fine next year. The incoming class is good. We have two young guys who should take big jumps. Martinelli will be back. We'll have a wide open spot for a big man in the portal who wants to start in the Big 10. We've landed two nice guards out of mid-major programs the last two years, so hopefully we can do that again. I'm not gloomy about the future.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Outstanding post!

Could not agree more about time for Gelo and KJ. Gelo was really bad vs Sconnie, but he was pretty good vs Dayton, Purdue and Rutgers. He can play. Same for KJ.

I am fine with Nick dribbling into the paint, drawing a double team, and kicking it to Jalen or Berry, or even a back-cutting Matt. I just hate the forced shots.

 

[Davidgolds5]

1) Coming up short against Wisconsin, a likely 4 seed as of today, without Barnhizer doesn't mean we're a bad team. Yes, we're probably somewhere between the 12th and 17th-best Big 10 team now but still a top 60-ish team in the country. We just play in an unforgiving league and came up on the wrong end of some close ones we needed to win. I'm not giving up on these guys making a run to some sort of postseason play.

2) As a Pacific NW resident/native, I'm loving the upcoming trip up this way even though they'll be late start times for most fans watching on TV. I'm happy to be able to be close enough to support the team in person, I'm driving to Seattle on Saturday and Eugene next Tuesday to attend both games.

3) There's been a lot of talk about Nicholson on another thread. EvanMiya has a metric called "Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating" (DBPR) that measures a player's total impact on defense (including how their presence on the floor increases the defensive performance of teammates). Nicholson is tied for 2nd *in the entire Big 10* in this rating with Danny Wolf, just below Morez Johnson. Looking at "on/off the floor" ratings, our defensive rating is 16.4 points better per 100 possessions with Matt on the floor than when he sits. No other player on our team is worth more than 4.6 points per 100 possessions on D, and that's KJ Windham who hasn't played much in conference games. Unsurprisingly, Matt leads our team in raw +/- and we outscored both Wisconsin and Rutgers by 7 points when Matt was on the floor. He's really important despite the lack of development in his offensive game.

4) This may be unpopular, but I don't think "making this Nick's team" is a winning approach the rest of this season. I hope Leach is at least considered option 1B moving forward as he's been playing very well. I like how Leach is able to dribble into good looks from 3 and from the elbow off of high screens, and I think those are much better looks than what Nick throws up 6 or 7 times a game. I love Nick but teams are starting to solve him a bit, and he's forcing shots that just aren't there. I like when the ball moves on offense and Nick is able to get into a move quickly after the catch. I don't like when he gets the ball at the arc and spends 11 seconds backing down a defender only to end up forcing up an off-balance leaner with 3 guys on him. Because he has this funky arsenal of moves it seems like he thinks he can improvise under pressure and it's becoming less successful. He's 18-for-53 the last 3 games, but more concerning is that he's 13-for-36 on 2-pointers. That's too many wasted possessions.

5) Gelo was horribad on Saturday, but he has to play. So does KJ. They're the future of the team. Get them minutes while still keeping the core of Martinelli/Leach/Berry/Nicholson. I used to be higher on Mullins but I'm coming back the other way. Mullins with the other 4 starters is our worst-performing lineup. Let's prioritize the freshmen and use Mullins when needed.

6) I think we'll be fine next year. The incoming class is good. We have two young guys who should take big jumps. Martinelli will be back. We'll have a wide open spot for a big man in the portal who wants to start in the Big 10. We've landed two nice guards out of mid-major programs the last two years, so hopefully we can do that again. I'm not gloomy about the future.

Awesome stuff. Enjoy the west coast games.

 

[SmellyCat]

5) Gelo was horribad on Saturday.

It was not his best game, but he did come up for a loose ball by diving on the floor, and a move like that will always endear him to this fan, as well as many others. He'll have better games but I admire the hustle. He'll be at least a poor man's Barnhizer by the time he's a senior.

 

[Davidgolds5]

It was not his best game, but he did come up for a loose ball by diving on the floor, and a move like that will always him to this fan, as well as many others. He'll have better games but I admire the hustle. He'll be at least a poor man's Barnhizer by the time he's a senior.

You can see the skill is there. And great hops too. Just looks like the game is moving too quickly for him, which is to be expected for a freshman with limited time. He will get there.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

One problem Collins faced before the Wisconsin game was figuring out a rotation.

Barnhizer had been on the court for maybe 90% of the minutes against the Big Ten, so there wasn't a lot to go on - with Mullins or Ciaravino replacing Barnhizer. The starting lineup of Nicholson/Martinelli/Barnhizer/Ciarvino/Leach had been playing very well as a unit
(80-54 over 41:43) but that is gone.

The best chance for us to be competitive is that Ciaravino or Windham starts making shots. Or Mullins, I suppose.

We need something respectable from Hunger or Fitzmorris - something other than an ass-kicking.

Maybe Collins will finally try Hunger at the 4. I would be so proud of him - no matter what happens.

I admit that it isn't a lot to hang your hat on.

 

[macarthur31]

4) This may be unpopular, but I don't think "making this Nick's team" is a winning approach the rest of this season. I hope Leach is at least considered option 1B moving forward as he's been playing very well. I like how Leach is able to dribble into good looks from 3 and from the elbow off of high screens, and I think those are much better looks than what Nick throws up 6 or 7 times a game. I love Nick but teams are starting to solve him a bit, and he's forcing shots that just aren't there. I like when the ball moves on offense and Nick is able to get into a move quickly after the catch. I don't like when he gets the ball at the arc and spends 11 seconds backing down a defender only to end up forcing up an off-balance leaner with 3 guys on him. Because he has this funky arsenal of moves it seems like he thinks he can improvise under pressure and it's becoming less successful. He's 18-for-53 the last 3 games, but more concerning is that he's 13-for-36 on 2-pointers. That's too many wasted possessions.

I'm good with Nick taking those 3 pointers if the opponent is in drop coverage, but I align with you in that we can't make "Nick takes tough contested drives" our primary action. Agreed that Leach can hit that 3 off the dribble; and we gotta keep working the pindown screens for Ty. Matty Nix had 10 points last game cause opponents were overplaying the perimeter and he had oop looks and pocket passes. Finally, I'm thinking Jello and Mullins are gonna be able to get points off slashes or open 3 looks.

Cats offense gonna need alot of different types of contributions to make the aggregate work alongside a defense that stays stout for all 40 minutes. It's a very tall order.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

You can see the skill is there. And great hops too. Just looks like the game is moving too quickly for him, which is to be expected for a freshman with limited time. He will get there.

His problem is lazy passes and horrible defense. Both can be fixed. I am not sure shooting a high % will be his thing unless he learns to finish inside. He is athletic and shows glimpse, but that same athleticism that bailed him out on the defensive end in HS gets matched in the Big,

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Outstanding post!

Could not agree more about time for Gelo and KJ. Gelo was really bad vs Sconnie, but he was pretty good vs Dayton, Purdue and Rutgers. He can play. Same for KJ.

I am fine with Nick dribbling into the paint, drawing a double team, and kicking it to Jalen or Berry, or even a back-cutting Matt. I just hate the forced shots.

Nick has been making those wild shots all season up until the last 4 games. We don’t have any other scores inside. Zero. Luka would have trouble facing 3 defenders most plays. I like him being aggressive and shooting whenever he doesn’t have two guys draped on him.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

1) Coming up short against Wisconsin, a likely 4 seed as of today, without Barnhizer doesn't mean we're a bad team. Yes, we're probably somewhere between the 12th and 17th-best Big 10 team now but still a top 60-ish team in the country. We just play in an unforgiving league and came up on the wrong end of some close ones we needed to win. I'm not giving up on these guys making a run to some sort of postseason play.

2) As a Pacific NW resident/native, I'm loving the upcoming trip up this way even though they'll be late start times for most fans watching on TV. I'm happy to be able to be close enough to support the team in person, I'm driving to Seattle on Saturday and Eugene next Tuesday to attend both games.

3) There's been a lot of talk about Nicholson on another thread. EvanMiya has a metric called "Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating" (DBPR) that measures a player's total impact on defense (including how their presence on the floor increases the defensive performance of teammates). Nicholson is tied for 2nd *in the entire Big 10* in this rating with Danny Wolf, just below Morez Johnson. Looking at "on/off the floor" ratings, our defensive rating is 16.4 points better per 100 possessions with Matt on the floor than when he sits. No other player on our team is worth more than 4.6 points per 100 possessions on D, and that's KJ Windham who hasn't played much in conference games. Unsurprisingly, Matt leads our team in raw +/- and we outscored both Wisconsin and Rutgers by 7 points when Matt was on the floor. He's really important despite the lack of development in his offensive game.

4) This may be unpopular, but I don't think "making this Nick's team" is a winning approach the rest of this season. I hope Leach is at least considered option 1B moving forward as he's been playing very well. I like how Leach is able to dribble into good looks from 3 and from the elbow off of high screens, and I think those are much better looks than what Nick throws up 6 or 7 times a game. I love Nick but teams are starting to solve him a bit, and he's forcing shots that just aren't there. I like when the ball moves on offense and Nick is able to get into a move quickly after the catch. I don't like when he gets the ball at the arc and spends 11 seconds backing down a defender only to end up forcing up an off-balance leaner with 3 guys on him. Because he has this funky arsenal of moves it seems like he thinks he can improvise under pressure and it's becoming less successful. He's 18-for-53 the last 3 games, but more concerning is that he's 13-for-36 on 2-pointers. That's too many wasted possessions.

5) Gelo was horribad on Saturday, but he has to play. So does KJ. They're the future of the team. Get them minutes while still keeping the core of Martinelli/Leach/Berry/Nicholson. I used to be higher on Mullins but I'm coming back the other way. Mullins with the other 4 starters is our worst-performing lineup. Let's prioritize the freshmen and use Mullins when needed.

6) I think we'll be fine next year. The incoming class is good. We have two young guys who should take big jumps. Martinelli will be back. We'll have a wide open spot for a big man in the portal who wants to start in the Big 10. We've landed two nice guards out of mid-major programs the last two years, so hopefully we can do that again. I'm not gloomy about the future.

I have never heard of this defensive rating you referenced, but Big Matt is an elite defender. It’s magnified because Luke and Fitz really struggle on that end. There are two extremes there. I would guess that if they had WAR (wins over replacement) like they do in MLB, Big Matt would lead the team.

 

[Hungry Jack]

I have never heard of this defensive rating you referenced, but Big Matt is an elite defender. It’s magnified because Luke and Fitz really struggle on that end. There are two extremes there. I would guess that if they had WAR (wins over replacement) like they do in MLB, Big Matt would lead the team.

My second cousin flies a cargo prop for Air Kentucky and knows a ton about basketball. He says Matt is one of the best big man defenders he has seen.

 

[Baz=Heisman]

1) Coming up short against Wisconsin, a likely 4 seed as of today, without Barnhizer doesn't mean we're a bad team. Yes, we're probably somewhere between the 12th and 17th-best Big 10 team now but still a top 60-ish team in the country. We just play in an unforgiving league and came up on the wrong end of some close ones we needed to win. I'm not giving up on these guys making a run to some sort of postseason play.

2) As a Pacific NW resident/native, I'm loving the upcoming trip up this way even though they'll be late start times for most fans watching on TV. I'm happy to be able to be close enough to support the team in person, I'm driving to Seattle on Saturday and Eugene next Tuesday to attend both games.

3) There's been a lot of talk about Nicholson on another thread. EvanMiya has a metric called "Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating" (DBPR) that measures a player's total impact on defense (including how their presence on the floor increases the defensive performance of teammates). Nicholson is tied for 2nd *in the entire Big 10* in this rating with Danny Wolf, just below Morez Johnson. Looking at "on/off the floor" ratings, our defensive rating is 16.4 points better per 100 possessions with Matt on the floor than when he sits. No other player on our team is worth more than 4.6 points per 100 possessions on D, and that's KJ Windham who hasn't played much in conference games. Unsurprisingly, Matt leads our team in raw +/- and we outscored both Wisconsin and Rutgers by 7 points when Matt was on the floor. He's really important despite the lack of development in his offensive game.

4) This may be unpopular, but I don't think "making this Nick's team" is a winning approach the rest of this season. I hope Leach is at least considered option 1B moving forward as he's been playing very well. I like how Leach is able to dribble into good looks from 3 and from the elbow off of high screens, and I think those are much better looks than what Nick throws up 6 or 7 times a game. I love Nick but teams are starting to solve him a bit, and he's forcing shots that just aren't there. I like when the ball moves on offense and Nick is able to get into a move quickly after the catch. I don't like when he gets the ball at the arc and spends 11 seconds backing down a defender only to end up forcing up an off-balance leaner with 3 guys on him. Because he has this funky arsenal of moves it seems like he thinks he can improvise under pressure and it's becoming less successful. He's 18-for-53 the last 3 games, but more concerning is that he's 13-for-36 on 2-pointers. That's too many wasted possessions.

5) Gelo was horribad on Saturday, but he has to play. So does KJ. They're the future of the team. Get them minutes while still keeping the core of Martinelli/Leach/Berry/Nicholson. I used to be higher on Mullins but I'm coming back the other way. Mullins with the other 4 starters is our worst-performing lineup. Let's prioritize the freshmen and use Mullins when needed.

6) I think we'll be fine next year. The incoming class is good. We have two young guys who should take big jumps. Martinelli will be back. We'll have a wide open spot for a big man in the portal who wants to start in the Big 10. We've landed two nice guards out of mid-major programs the last two years, so hopefully we can do that again. I'm not gloomy about the future.

Great post. Pumped we will have some of our diehards with the boys on the WC trip! Also, agreed we need to run the show through Jalen (Batman) and let Nick be in the side car (Robin) going forward. Guards run college basketball.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

His problem is lazy passes and horrible defense

You posted several opinions, I agree with most of it, but the "horrible defense" part is just wrong.
Ciaravino plays defense. In fact he's not bad at it.

His problems are that refs target him for cheap fouls because he is aggressive - and he's not hitting his shots right now.

Here's the data for Mullins and Ciaravino with the regulars...
Big Ten games only.

					Minutes	NU	Oppt	NU/40	Oppt/40
Nicholson	Martinelli	Barnhizer	Leach	Ciaravino	41.7	80	54	76.70	51.78
Nicholson	Martinelli	Barnhizer	Leach	Mullins	19.5	31	39	63.75	80.21
Nicholson	Martinelli	Barnhizer	Berry	Ciaravino	8.75	13	13	59.43	59.43
Nicholson	Martinelli	Barnhizer	Berry	Mullins	6.17	6	16	38.92	103.78

Head to head with Mullins and the data is telling us that Ciaravino has been the better defender when part of the veteran lineups.

As I mentioned, that could change with Barnhizer gone, but we'll have to wait and see.

 

[ThatkidfromHolland]

You posted several opinions, I agree with most of it, but the "horrible defense" part is just wrong.
Ciaravino plays defense. In fact he's not bad at it.

His problems are that refs target him for cheap fouls because he is aggressive - and he's not hitting his shots right now.

Here's the data for Mullins and Ciaravino with the regulars...
Big Ten games only.

					Minutes	NU	Oppt	NU/40	Oppt/40
Nicholson	Martinelli	Barnhizer	Leach	Ciaravino	41.7	80	54	76.70	51.78
Nicholson	Martinelli	Barnhizer	Leach	Mullins	19.5	31	39	63.75	80.21
Nicholson	Martinelli	Barnhizer	Berry	Ciaravino	8.75	13	13	59.43	59.43
Nicholson	Martinelli	Barnhizer	Berry	Mullins	6.17	6	16	38.92	103.78

Head to head with Mullins and the data is telling us that Ciaravino has been the better defender when part of the veteran lineups.

As I mentioned, that could change with Barnhizer gone, but we'll have to wait and see.

The data you're referencing doesn't provide any insight into the individual defender's performance. It completely overlooks variables like the skill level of opposing players, game context (such as defensive substitutions or garbage time), and situational factors that can heavily influence defensive outcomes. Moreover, the sample size is so small that it's highly susceptible to runs. At this scale, it’s impossible to isolate whether another player in the lineup just happened to be playing better for a brief 3-5 minute stretch or an opponent being unstoppable while hot, which could skew the numbers. When you look at the tape, it's clear: Mullins is a significantly better defender, and the gap is substantial.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

The data you're referencing doesn't provide any insight into the individual defender's performance. It completely overlooks variables like the skill level of opposing players, game context (such as defensive substitutions or garbage time), and situational factors that can heavily influence defensive outcomes. Moreover, the sample size is so small that it's highly susceptible to runs. At this scale, it’s impossible to isolate whether another player in the lineup just happened to be playing better for a brief 3-5 minute stretch or an opponent being unstoppable while hot, which could skew the numbers. When you look at the tape, it's clear: Mullins is a significantly better defender, and the gap is substantial.

Thats crazy talk. Really bizarro-world.
I mean, I get it, some of you fellas think you are experts on these things, but I rely on the data and I get it right most of the time.

Face it, you're saying Collins is an idiot for benching Mullins and starting Ciaravino.
When the data and the coach see the same thing, thats convincing enough for me.
But I'm surprised Gordie thinks that Collins made a mistake.

No offense.

 

[Hungry Jack]

You posted several opinions, I agree with most of it, but the "horrible defense" part is just wrong.
Ciaravino plays defense. In fact he's not bad at it.

His problems are that refs target him for cheap fouls because he is aggressive - and he's not hitting his shots right now.

Here's the data for Mullins and Ciaravino with the regulars...
Big Ten games only.

					Minutes	NU	Oppt	NU/40	Oppt/40
Nicholson	Martinelli	Barnhizer	Leach	Ciaravino	41.7	80	54	76.70	51.78
Nicholson	Martinelli	Barnhizer	Leach	Mullins	19.5	31	39	63.75	80.21
Nicholson	Martinelli	Barnhizer	Berry	Ciaravino	8.75	13	13	59.43	59.43
Nicholson	Martinelli	Barnhizer	Berry	Mullins	6.17	6	16	38.92	103.78

Head to head with Mullins and the data is telling us that Ciaravino has been the better defender when part of the veteran lineups.

As I mentioned, that could change with Barnhizer gone, but we'll have to wait and see.

Interesting to see the drop from Leach to Berry. As Gordie notes, it’s a small sample. But it passes the sniff test.

 

[Secho99]

The data you're referencing doesn't provide any insight into the individual defender's performance. It completely overlooks variables like the skill level of opposing players, game context (such as defensive substitutions or garbage time), and situational factors that can heavily influence defensive outcomes. Moreover, the sample size is so small that it's highly susceptible to runs. At this scale, it’s impossible to isolate whether another player in the lineup just happened to be playing better for a brief 3-5 minute stretch or an opponent being unstoppable while hot, which could skew the numbers. When you look at the tape, it's clear: Mullins is a significantly better defender, and the gap is substantial.

The Barnhizer/Martinelli/Ciaravino/Nicholson/Leach lineup has been our best this season by a fairly wide margin (+53 pts per 100 possessions, adjusted for quality of competition, which is 23 pts higher than our 2nd-best lineup). The same lineup with Mullins inserted for Ciaravino is our worst lineup this season out of 8 units that have been together for at least 40 possessions (-9.4 pts per 100 possession). And the lineup that includes Ciaravino has been facing higher-quality opposing lineups than the one that includes Mullins (largely because Gelo has been starting for a few weeks now). We can argue eye test all we want but those are the results.

 

[SDakaGordie]

Thats crazy talk. Really bizarro-world.
I mean, I get it, some of you fellas think you are experts on these things, but I rely on the data and I get it right most of the time.

Face it, you're saying Collins is an idiot for benching Mullins and starting Ciaravino.
When the data and the coach see the same thing, thats convincing enough for me.
But I'm surprised Gordie thinks that Collins made a mistake.

No offense.

You do get it right a fair amount, but many times you make mistakes interpreting your data. Have you ever heard of statistical credibility or confounding variables? Collins sees this stuff every day in practice and you think the very few minutes you track above are more credible? Not a chance.

 

[Secho99]

I'm good with Nick taking those 3 pointers if the opponent is in drop coverage, but I align with you in that we can't make "Nick takes tough contested drives" our primary action. Agreed that Leach can hit that 3 off the dribble; and we gotta keep working the pindown screens for Ty. Matty Nix had 10 points last game cause opponents were overplaying the perimeter and he had oop looks and pocket passes. Finally, I'm thinking Jello and Mullins are gonna be able to get points off slashes or open 3 looks.

Cats offense gonna need alot of different types of contributions to make the aggregate work alongside a defense that stays stout for all 40 minutes. It's a very tall order.

Yeah, I agree on not minding Nick's 3s and mid-range jumpers when he's got the space to square up. Overall like you say I think the key is making a concerted effort to find shots for different guys. For the most part, Leach and Berry's shots are good shots. They might not all go in and they occasionally force one, but I prefer those to some (not all) of Nick's contortions. And for Mullins, when he's been able to get to the rim it seems like he's a good finisher. I agree that using him and Ciaravino as slashers would be a good use of their talent. I think Ciaravino is about to get the full Mullins treatment from opposing defenses of "if you think you can make that 3, go for it."

 

[Secho99]

I have never heard of this defensive rating you referenced, but Big Matt is an elite defender. It’s magnified because Luke and Fitz really struggle on that end. There are two extremes there. I would guess that if they had WAR (wins over replacement) like they do in MLB, Big Matt would lead the team.

The "on/off the floor" defensive rating numbers for Matt are definitely higher because of the struggles Fitzmorris and Hunger have defensively, since one of those guys is on the floor when Matt is off. But as I understand it the DBPR rating does not hinge on those 2 guys at all, it just demonstrates Matt's value as a defender and how he makes the whole lineup better.

 

[EagerFan]

Nick will get plenty of opportunities to get his points as long as Berry and Leach are hitting from outside, and he'll try to share some of those with Matt - Matt just needs to catch the passes. I think the offense runs thru Leach until and unless he runs into an elite guard he can't get past, and then he gets it to Nick and the set moves forward. Angelo will make those threes in time, I think he was just too aware of the shots and rushing himself, like a freshman. And I agree he is best suited slashing for the dunk/layup/putback as is Mullins.

I'd be entertained by trying a few minutes of Luke at center with Keenan as power forward. I don't know it would work at all, but I'd enjoy the play.

 

[ThatkidfromHolland]

Thats crazy talk. Really bizarro-world.
I mean, I get it, some of you fellas think you are experts on these things, but I rely on the data and I get it right most of the time.

Face it, you're saying Collins is an idiot for benching Mullins and starting Ciaravino.
When the data and the coach see the same thing, thats convincing enough for me.
But I'm surprised Gordie thinks that Collins made a mistake.

No offense.

That’s not what I’m saying at all. It’s almost like you didn’t read what I typed. I just called out that that specific data table doesn’t quantify who the better individual defender is. I’m not saying who should play above who. I’m not commenting on Collins. I’m commented on the misinterpretation of the data. Please tell me how what I typed about is incorrect on the variables it doesn’t measure and the short comings of sample size.

The tape does not lie on who the better defender is.

 

[Southport Cat]

Great thread, couldn’t agree more on the optimism for next year and that this year’s team is good even if we had worse outcomes than we wanted so far.

The take that Mullins isn’t a good defender is a head scratcher to me if you are actually watching the games. I wonder if the short leash and his yo-yo minutes haven’t sapped a lot of his abilities. He has nowhere near the leeway for mistakes that Leach or even Ty get. He seems to check in when one of our scorers goes ice cold and the other team is going on a run. I’d argue the data set is skewed against him in that regard. Or I am just a mark because his game reminds me of one of my favorite all time Wildcats, Mo Hachad.

Martinelli should be living at the foul line but the fact that he wears purple and has an unorthodox arsenal seems to preclude such a reality. A lot of his bad shots to my eyes come from his man playing grab a$$ with him when he goes into YMCA tazmanian devil mode.

Is anyone else wanting to see what Blake Barkley could do with 10 of those Barnhizer minutes each game the rest of the way?

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

You posted several opinions, I agree with most of it, but the "horrible defense" part is just wrong.
Ciaravino plays defense. In fact he's not bad at it.

His problems are that refs target him for cheap fouls because he is aggressive - and he's not hitting his shots right now.

Here's the data for Mullins and Ciaravino with the regulars...
Big Ten games only.

					Minutes	NU	Oppt	NU/40	Oppt/40
Nicholson	Martinelli	Barnhizer	Leach	Ciaravino	41.7	80	54	76.70	51.78
Nicholson	Martinelli	Barnhizer	Leach	Mullins	19.5	31	39	63.75	80.21
Nicholson	Martinelli	Barnhizer	Berry	Ciaravino	8.75	13	13	59.43	59.43
Nicholson	Martinelli	Barnhizer	Berry	Mullins	6.17	6	16	38.92	103.78

Head to head with Mullins and the data is telling us that Ciaravino has been the better defender when part of the veteran lineups.

As I mentioned, that could change with Barnhizer gone, but we'll have to wait and see.

I guess we will just disagree. I watched very closely the last few games on why we seemed to give up a lot of threes to our opponents. The clear main reason was Gelo getting beat off the dribble and either Big Matt or Nick were forced slide over for rim protection. If they didn't it was a lay up. When they did generally the penetrating player kicked it to the perimeter where that player either shot the three or moved it one more pass to an open player. Gelo will be fine as he gets more experienced. In fact, I believe he will be a good defender, he just isn’t very good at it now and it kills us.

 

[jensberg]

Great thread, couldn’t agree more on the optimism for next year and that this year’s team is good even if we had worse outcomes than we wanted so far.

The take that Mullins isn’t a good defender is a head scratcher to me if you are actually watching the games. I wonder if the short leash and his yo-yo minutes haven’t sapped a lot of his abilities. He has nowhere near the leeway for mistakes that Leach or even Ty get. He seems to check in when one of our scorers goes ice cold and the other team is going on a run. I’d argue the data set is skewed against him in that regard. Or I am just a mark because his game reminds me of one of my favorite all time Wildcats, Mo Hachad.

Martinelli should be living at the foul line but the fact that he wears purple and has an unorthodox arsenal seems to preclude such a reality. A lot of his bad shots to my eyes come from his man playing grab a$$ with him when he goes into YMCA tazmanian devil mode.

Is anyone else wanting to see what Blake Barkley could do with 10 of those Barnhizer minutes each game the rest of the way?

Yes to Barkley.. add some much needed size.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Yes to Barkley.. add some much needed size.

Based on what I saw in limited action, it will take 1 minute and 35 seconds before calls for his head along with CCC’s will echo on that always positive game day thread.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

You do get it right a fair amount, but many times you make mistakes interpreting your data. Have you ever heard of statistical credibility or confounding variables? Collins sees this stuff every day in practice and you think the very few minutes you track above are more credible? Not a chance.

I give Collins a lot of credit for making that switch to the starting lineup - because it worked.
Ciaravino had played 5 minutes with those other guys (Nicholson, Martinelli, Barnhizer and Leach) before Collins made that the starting lineup.

What had happened was that the original starting lineup (Berry instead of Ciaravino) had played phenomenally until we got into Big Ten play and then they couldn't do anything right. So Collins made a change - and the new starting lineup did really well.

We basically started over without Barnhizer against Wisconsin - and there is obviously less to work with - but all we can do is root for individual players to seize their opportunities (which is not a crazy notion) and for Coach Collins to revamp the offense to address the loss of Barnhizer - if thats possible.

 

[lou v]

Mullins a good defender, but NU has been pretty good defensively. Their bigger issue is finding offense. That's why they went with Ciaravino over Mullins when they pulled Berry out of the starting lineup. Ciaravino is not as good a defender as Mullins -- yet -- but he definitely offers more on the offensive end. You can see how tentative Mullins is offensively. He just doesn't have much confidence.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

The Barnhizer/Martinelli/Ciaravino/Nicholson/Leach lineup has been our best this season by a fairly wide margin (+53 pts per 100 possessions, adjusted for quality of competition, which is 23 pts higher than our 2nd-best lineup). The same lineup with Mullins inserted for Ciaravino is our worst lineup this season out of 8 units that have been together for at least 40 possessions (-9.4 pts per 100 possession). And the lineup that includes Ciaravino has been facing higher-quality opposing lineups than the one that includes Mullins (largely because Gelo has been starting for a few weeks now). We can argue eye test all we want but those are the results.

Where did you get these numbers? Do you have a subscription to Evan Miya's website?
He's the only stats guy I'm aware of who seems to have player ratings based on who was in each game for both teams.
He's definitely using play-by-play points scored and allowed to rate individual players, along with the normal box score stats.

And he's got our team rated defensively...

Nicholson 3.31 (tied for 2nd in Big Ten)
Barnhizer 2.09
Berry 1.86
Windham 1.58
Ciaravino 1.30
Martinelli 0.72
Mullins 0.57
Leach 0.32
Hunger -0.46 (third worst defender in Big Ten)
Fitzmorris -0.81 (not enough minutes, but lower than any qualifier - 160 players)

Theoretically, this means Hunger and Fitzmorris are worse defensively than the average D1 player.
It is a difficult thing to do - you need whatever data you can get - but I trust his methodology to be reasonable.

Unfortunately Miya doesn't allow you to filter out the games against the cupcakes to get a better understanding.
But, I can do that with my data set and certain players (Mullins, in particular) had much better defensive success in the non-conference part of the schedule.

 

[Secho99]

Where did you get these numbers? Do you have a subscription to Evan Miya's website?
He's the only stats guy I'm aware of who seems to have player ratings based on who was in each game for both teams.

I do have a basic paid subscription for Evan Miya and that’s where I got the lineup data. I love college hoops enough to pay $5 a month for what he offers at that level but not the $30 a month it costs for all of his premium data.

 

[jensberg]

Mullins a good defender, but NU has been pretty good defensively. Their bigger issue is finding offense. That's why they went with Ciaravino over Mullins when they pulled Berry out of the starting lineup. Ciaravino is not as good a defender as Mullins -- yet -- but he definitely offers more on the offensive end. You can see how tentative Mullins is offensively. He just doesn't have much confidence.

Hopefully he's a lot more confident after this game against USC cuz he was hitting threes consistently

 

[Secho99]

1) Coming up short against Wisconsin, a likely 4 seed as of today, without Barnhizer doesn't mean we're a bad team. Yes, we're probably somewhere between the 12th and 17th-best Big 10 team now but still a top 60-ish team in the country. We just play in an unforgiving league and came up on the wrong end of some close ones we needed to win. I'm not giving up on these guys making a run to some sort of postseason play.

2) As a Pacific NW resident/native, I'm loving the upcoming trip up this way even though they'll be late start times for most fans watching on TV. I'm happy to be able to be close enough to support the team in person, I'm driving to Seattle on Saturday and Eugene next Tuesday to attend both games.

3) There's been a lot of talk about Nicholson on another thread. EvanMiya has a metric called "Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating" (DBPR) that measures a player's total impact on defense (including how their presence on the floor increases the defensive performance of teammates). Nicholson is tied for 2nd *in the entire Big 10* in this rating with Danny Wolf, just below Morez Johnson. Looking at "on/off the floor" ratings, our defensive rating is 16.4 points better per 100 possessions with Matt on the floor than when he sits. No other player on our team is worth more than 4.6 points per 100 possessions on D, and that's KJ Windham who hasn't played much in conference games. Unsurprisingly, Matt leads our team in raw +/- and we outscored both Wisconsin and Rutgers by 7 points when Matt was on the floor. He's really important despite the lack of development in his offensive game.

4) This may be unpopular, but I don't think "making this Nick's team" is a winning approach the rest of this season. I hope Leach is at least considered option 1B moving forward as he's been playing very well. I like how Leach is able to dribble into good looks from 3 and from the elbow off of high screens, and I think those are much better looks than what Nick throws up 6 or 7 times a game. I love Nick but teams are starting to solve him a bit, and he's forcing shots that just aren't there. I like when the ball moves on offense and Nick is able to get into a move quickly after the catch. I don't like when he gets the ball at the arc and spends 11 seconds backing down a defender only to end up forcing up an off-balance leaner with 3 guys on him. Because he has this funky arsenal of moves it seems like he thinks he can improvise under pressure and it's becoming less successful. He's 18-for-53 the last 3 games, but more concerning is that he's 13-for-36 on 2-pointers. That's too many wasted possessions.

5) Gelo was horribad on Saturday, but he has to play. So does KJ. They're the future of the team. Get them minutes while still keeping the core of Martinelli/Leach/Berry/Nicholson. I used to be higher on Mullins but I'm coming back the other way. Mullins with the other 4 starters is our worst-performing lineup. Let's prioritize the freshmen and use Mullins when needed.

6) I think we'll be fine next year. The incoming class is good. We have two young guys who should take big jumps. Martinelli will be back. We'll have a wide open spot for a big man in the portal who wants to start in the Big 10. We've landed two nice guards out of mid-major programs the last two years, so hopefully we can do that again. I'm not gloomy about the future.

OP with some bad takes

 

[ThatkidfromHolland]

Thats crazy talk. Really bizarro-world.
I mean, I get it, some of you fellas think you are experts on these things, but I rely on the data and I get it right most of the time.

Face it, you're saying Collins is an idiot for benching Mullins and starting Ciaravino.
When the data and the coach see the same thing, thats convincing enough for me.
But I'm surprised Gordie thinks that Collins made a mistake.

No offense.

Any conclusions that led to Gelo being a better defender than Mullins seem to have been misinterpreted. Especially after last night.

No offense.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Any conclusions that led to Gelo being a better defender than Mullins seem to have been misinterpreted. Especially after last night.

No offense.

Yeah, I don’t care what the line up combinations say, I have two eyes and I can see Mullins is a better defender than Gelo at this time.

The starting line up change has been a boon for everyone except Gelo. Berry has played much better off the bench, and clearly with Leach are the only players we have that can “go off” from the perimeter. Gelo has mustered a grand total of 12 points in his 7 starts. Mullins had 14 just yesterday. Gelo is 0-10 in his most recent 3 point attempts. We were told he was in for his offense. He doesn’t appear to have confidence in his shot at all. He kills us out there and CCC finally limited to 4 minutes yesterday. Smith is a better defender despite his bonehead play yesterday.

Gelo will eventually be a much better player than Mullins. He is not right now. It’s not fair to Ty, Big Matt, and Leach to throw him to the wolves for the sake of development while we blow games we might be able to win. I hate to harp on Gelo, but some takes on this subject have been worse than Gelo’s 3 point shooting. I hope Gelo regains his swagger and is a star to finish the season, but that doesn’t change my opinion of his play thus far. He’ll be light years better next season.

 

[ThatkidfromHolland]

Yeah, I don’t care what the line up combinations say, I have two eyes and I can see Mullins is a better defender than Gelo at this time.

The starting line up change has been a boon for everyone except Gelo. Berry has played much better off the bench, and clearly with Leach are the only players we have that can “go off” from the perimeter. Gelo has mustered a grand total of 12 points in his 7 starts. Mullins had 14 just yesterday. Gelo is 0-10 in his most recent 3 point attempts. We were told he was in for his offense. He doesn’t appear to have confidence in his shot at all. He kills us out there and CCC finally limited to 4 minutes yesterday. Smith is a better defender despite his bonehead play yesterday.

Gelo will eventually be a much better player than Mullins. He is not right now. It’s not fair to Ty, Big Matt, and Leach to throw him to the wolves for the sake of development while we blow games we might be able to win. I hate to harp on Gelo, but some takes on this subject have been worse than Gelo’s 3 point shooting. I hope Gelo regains his swagger and is a star to finish the season, but that doesn’t change my opinion of his play thus far. He’ll be light years better next season.

Gelo did open things up for the rest of team more than Mullins was on the offensive end. So while his numbers weren’t the best the defense didn’t sag off as much and the team defense made up for the weakness there. Now that Mullins hit some 3’s hopefully that leads to defenses respecting it and Mullins can get more time since his D is so good.

So this doesn’t get misread or pitted against me later. I am not saying Gelo will not be a good player. I think he will be. I am not being a naysayer about his potential. This season Gelo is a different player than he will be 2 years from now.

 

[lou v]

Hopefully he's a lot more confident after this game against USC cuz he was hitting threes consistently

Mullins was out of his head last night. What a performance. Really happy for him. Hopefully, it built some confidence and he turns a corner offensively.

 

[GatoLouco]

Gelo did open things up for the rest of team more than Mullins was on the offensive end. So while his numbers weren’t the best the defense didn’t sag off as much and the team defense made up for the weakness there. Now that Mullins hit some 3’s hopefully that leads to defenses respecting it and Mullins can get more time since his D is so good.

So this doesn’t get misread or pitted against me later. I am not saying Gelo will not be a good player. I think he will be. I am not being a naysayer about his potential. This season Gelo is a different player than he will be 2 years from now.

I think this was the reason he got put in there instead of Mullins. Other teams have to at least honor the threat from 3, while they were clearly daring Mullins to shoot. It made the lanes for Barnhizer and Martinelli very, very difficult. Best case scenario is that Mullins steps up. Which he did yesterday. He has been more aggressive offensively for sure, less hesitation on getting a shot up.

Yesterday Collins started Mullins in the second half. It appears he has been more flexible on a change like that this season. I am not sure but I believe we have seen it a couple of times. It used to drive me nuts that come hell or high water Beran was going to start the 2nd half, even if he was dreadful for the entire 1st.

 

[SDakaGordie]

I think this was the reason he got put in there instead of Mullins. Other teams have to at least honor the threat from 3, while they were clearly daring Mullins to shoot. It made the lanes for Barnhizer and Martinelli very, very difficult. Best case scenario is that Mullins steps up. Which he did yesterday. He has been more aggressive offensively for sure, less hesitation on getting a shot up.

Yesterday Collins started Mullins in the second half. It appears he has been more flexible on a change like that this season. I am not sure but I believe we have seen it a couple of times. It used to drive me nuts that come hell or high water Beran was going to start the 2nd half, even if he was dreadful for the entire 1st.

Beran was an under-performer vs. our and rating expectations, but he was not dreadful and always had to be guarded.

 

[GatoLouco]

Beran was an under-performer vs. our and rating expectations, but he was not dreadful and always had to be guarded.

I did not say he was dreadful. I said he was dreadful on occasion for the 1st half a given game. His last game for us, against UCLA, was an example of that. I am not sure, but I believe Beran still started the 2nd half, though he barely played. Barnhizer was clearly better.

 

[eastbaycat99]

Mullins was out of his head last night. What a performance. Really happy for him. Hopefully, it built some confidence and he turns a corner offensively.

At a minimum, his 4-5 3 point performance will mean opponents will decide they need to play him tight outside the arc for the next few games. Watching the rotation on his shot, I would be surprised if his 3 point % on a high volume would break 30% with nominal defensive pressure, but pulling out his defender opens space inside the arc for others. I also think having to pay attention to him will give Berry some better looks. For most of the game, USC was smothering him.