Attempt at a deeper dive into recruiting

[Sec.112]

It's pretty obvious it's been a tough recruiting year for CC. The program hasn't completely turned the corner, and there are a lot of offers out there.

However, I'd argue it's still pretty early in the recruiting season. Only a small percentage of the 2019 NU offers have made their final decisions. Another example is MSU has four schollies available this year and no commits yet.

However, quite a few have already crossed NU off their list.

It's pretty obvious NU has some work to do before they become a regular part of the top 100 discussion.

I'm not a believer this is a make or break year for CC on the recruiting trail - especially since most of us have no clue about how players will develop (All of you screaming in excitement about the All-B10 potential of Dererk Pardon in 2015 raise your hand.) It's too difficult to recruit to NU's academic standards. You're kidding yourself if you think this is a 3-5 year turnaround similar to other programs.

But this staff does need to begin to show a little something more in the next couple years. It probably needs an NIT in the next year or two and another tourney by the end of the Nance class. Or else the preception could be the same ol', same 'ol.

CC also needs to show future prospects it can succeed with top-100 talent in Nance and Kopp.

Here's a look at where all the 2019 offers stand as far as I can see. I was only looking for firm final lists from players' personal Twitter accounts. For the most part, I'm not messing around with Internet "reporting" or a long list of offers.

First, the good news ...

NU on their final list
Yavoz Gultekin - NU, TCU, Nebraska, Georgetown (8/19)
Maceo Austin - NU PSU, VCU, Duquesne (8/1)
Majok Deng - Listen to this kid and tell me he's not NU material. I assume this isn't really a final list, but he lists NU, Duke, Stanford, Cal, Princeton, Rice, Vandy, Arizona, UCLA, Utah, Ohio State, Rice and Georgia Tech (7/7)

No published short list
Robbie Beran
Daniel Buie
David Roddy
Harlond Beverly
Prince Gillam
Nobal Days
Christian Koloko
* Zach Harvey
* Zeke Nnaji - No list but good luck getting a kid with a slew of offers including Arizona, Kansas, Notre Dame and hometown Minnesota.

Published short lists that don't include NU
* EJ Liddell - OSU, Mizzou, IL, KSU, Wisconsin
* Drew Timme - NU not in his top 10
* Donovan Williams - Miami, Georgia, ASU, Texas, Texas A&M
* Malik Hall - Oregon, Texas, Purdue, Oklahoma, MSU
* Isaiah Stewart - Long dead with NU. Published a short list in May.

Verbal Commits
Kadin Shedrick - Virginia w/ no NU in his final list
Paul Mulcahy - Rutgers
Tyler Wahl - Wisconsin
Brenden Tucker - Ahhh, the joy of doing business with 17 year olds ...NU had him on campus and was one of his "early three." Then Tucker cut his list to seven without NU, but decided to re-open recruiting. A few days after that, he committed to Charleston.
Zach Freemantle - Xavier
* Francis Okoro - Oregon (reclassified to '18)
* Kira Lewis - Alabama (reclassified to '18)

* Top 100s

 

[GOUNUII]

It's pretty obvious it's been a tough recruiting year for CC. The program hasn't completely turned the corner, and there are a lot of offers out there.

However, I'd argue it's still pretty early in the recruiting season. Only a small percentage of the 2019 NU offers have made their final decisions. Another example is MSU has four schollies available this year and no commits yet.

However, quite a few have already crossed NU off their list.

It's pretty obvious NU has some work to do before they become a regular part of the top 100 discussion.

I'm not a believer this is a make or break year for CC on the recruiting trail - especially since most of us have no clue about how players will develop (All of you screaming in excitement about the All-B10 potential of Dererk Pardon in 2015 raise your hand.) It's too difficult to recruit to NU's academic standards. You're kidding yourself if you think this is a 3-5 year turnaround similar to other programs.

But this staff does need to begin to show a little something more in the next couple years. It probably needs an NIT in the next year or two and another tourney by the end of the Nance class. Or else the preception could be the same ol', same 'ol.

CC also needs to show future prospects it can succeed with top-100 talent in Nance and Kopp.

Here's a look at where all the 2019 offers stand as far as I can see. I was only looking for firm final lists from players' personal Twitter accounts. For the most part, I'm not messing around with Internet "reporting" or a long list of offers.

First, the good news ...

NU on their final list
Yavoz Gultekin - NU, TCU, Nebraska, Georgetown (8/19)
Maceo Austin - NU PSU, VCU, Duquesne (8/1)
Majok Deng - Listen to this kid and tell me he's not NU material. I assume this isn't really a final list, but he lists NU, Duke, Stanford, Cal, Princeton, Rice, Vandy, Arizona, UCLA, Utah, Ohio State, Rice and Georgia Tech (7/7)

No published short list
Robbie Beran
Daniel Buie
David Roddy
Harlond Beverly
Prince Gillam
Nobal Days
Zach Freemantle
Christian Koloko
Brenden Tucker - Originally cut his list to seven without NU, but decided to re-open recruiting
* Zach Harvey
* Zeke Nnaji - No list but good luck getting a kid with a slew of offers including Arizona, Kansas, Notre Dame and hometown Minnesota.

Published short lists that don't include NU
* EJ Liddell - OSU, Mizzou, IL, KSU, Wisconsin
* Drew Timme - NU not in his top 10
* Donovan Williams - Miami, Georgia, ASU, Texas, Texas A&M
* Malik Hall - Oregon, Texas, Purdue, Oklahoma, MSU
* Isaiah Stewart - Long dead with NU. Published a short list in May.

Verbal Commits
Kadin Shedrick - Virginia w/ no NU in his final list
Paul Mulcahy - Rutgers
Tyler Wahl - Wisconsin
* Francis Okoro - Oregon (reclassified to '18)
* Kira Lewis - Alabama (reclassified to '18)

* Top 100s

First. Thanks for putting this together.

Second. I am raising my hand regarding Pardon. Loved him from day one. But had the advantage of following him during his last two years of HS ball.

Third. I am already on record for saying this is indeed a make or break recruiting year for Collins. All the more true with the unfortunate loss of Lathon. It may take longer as you say. But if it does, and we actually achieve Collins’ goals further on down the road, Phillips will have again changed coaches along the way. At NU, we don’t have the luxury of success waiting to happen.

GOUNUII

 

[Medill90]

Thanks for the work 112, and nicely done.

I don't know that it's "make or break", but NU needs some bodies capable of playing Big Ten bball. The short roster has been an albatross. When Collins gets a kid in, 90% of the time, they are good players. I'd be ok with three frosh and one transfer. And I'll accept an empty locker over a kid that isn't a Big Ten player.

I don't think it's as easy at NU as Collins thought it could be. But he likes it here, so we've got that.

 

[NJCat]

It may take longer as you say. But if it does, and we actually achieve Collins’ goals further on down the road, Phillips will have again changed coaches along the way. At NU, we don’t have the luxury of success waiting to happen.

I don't get what you are trying to say. Colins is under contract through 2025, I doubt Phillips fires him before then except if for "cause". Chris has the luxury of a looooong leash.

 

[GOUNUII]

I don't get what you are trying to say. Colins is under contract through 2025, I doubt Phillips fires him before then except if for "cause". Chris has the luxury of a looooong leash.

Yes he does. Contractually he has a lot to play with. Basketball wise he does not. My point is that Collins has only a small window of opportunity to get the players with whom he can get over the hump to a Top 20 program. Without a very good class this year, he won't have the players. And as each year passes it will become more difficult. Then impossible. He is already on the verge of being just another Power 5 coach at a program that is nothing special to kids being recruited by Top 30 programs. An average at best BIG class this year, and a middle of the pack (short of the Dance) finish in the 2018-19 season , will be the beginning of the end for the hopes we all had when the team won its first NCAA tournament game. Here's hoping we get back to the Tourney this year. It's Collins' only realistic chance of keeping the program on the right trajectory.

This is no criticism of Collins. It's just how things work.

GOUNUII

 

[freewillie07]

Thanks for the work 112, and nicely done.

I don't know that it's "make or break", but NU needs some bodies capable of playing Big Ten bball. The short roster has been an albatross. When Collins gets a kid in, 90% of the time, they are good players. I'd be ok with three frosh and one transfer. And I'll accept an empty locker over a kid that isn't a Big Ten player.

I don't think it's as easy at NU as Collins thought it could be. But he likes it here, so we've got that.

NU has a whopping FIVE scholarships to fill next season. The one that’s currently unused, plus Taylor, Law, Ash and Pardon graduating. So NU pretty much needs a minimum of four freshmen.

Great work from 112, though it unfortunately highlights how NU hasn’t hit with any of its initial offers.

Maceo Austin needs to be priority No. 1. Lock him down and solidify the lead guard position, the weakest link on this team. Otherwise I guess it’s Buie or bust.

I’m on the record saying I’m very nervous about this class.

 

[freewillie07]

Yes he does. Contractually he has a lot to play with. Basketball wise he does not. My point is that Collins has only a small window of opportunity to get the players with whom he can get over the hump to a Top 20 program. Without a very good class this year, he won't have the players. And as each year passes it will become more difficult. Then impossible. He is already on the verge of being just another Power 5 coach at a program that is nothing special to kids being recruited by Top 30 programs. An average at best BIG class this year, and a middle of the pack (short of the Dance) finish in the 2018-19 season , will be the beginning of the end for the hopes we all had when the team won its first NCAA tournament game. Here's hoping we get back to the Tourney this year. It's Collins' only realistic chance of keeping the program on the right trajectory.

This is no criticism of Collins. It's just how things work.

GOUNUII

Harsh, but fair. Last season was nothing short of devastating for the program’s trajectory. It would be terrible if the same players that took NU to lofty new heights were also the ones who halted the upward momentum in its tracks.

 

[Catreporter]

Top 20 program.

High bar there for a school that had never even been to the NCAA tourney until CC got here. I think I'll just settle for a solid, competitive BIG team. And then, maybe we catch lightning in a bottle every now and then like Loyola did. We're never going to be Duke (Nor would I want to be the way they've compromised their academics with declared one and dones. Do those guys even go to class?)

 

[NJCat]

I think I'll just settle for a solid, competitive BIG team. And then, maybe we catch lightning in a bottle every now and then like Loyola did.

In other words, you'd settle for the latter Carmody years, 4 consecutive NITs with 8, 7, 7 and 8 B1G wins and 8th, 7th, 7th and 9th in the league......plus the Collins Unicorn 2016-17 season.

 

[rwhitney014]

I will say that Greer was likely to be a commit for next year's class, but because of the circumstances they managed to reclassify him now. But he's unlikely to have much impact till next season. Not saying that's good, bad or indifferent, but it's what it is.

I, too, am a bit concerned. I'm at the point with Fitz where I more or less trust that the staff is going to fill its classes with legitimate players, at least at most of the position groups. I don't know that I have the same trust right now with Collins and his staff. (I'm also aware that my trust means hooey.)

Collins has had some big hits, and the class coming in this year has what should be multiple impact players. But there have been big misses too. The results right now don't match the rhetoric we heard 2-3 cycles ago. Not an indictment of Collins there because talk is not results, and the results are all that matter. I just would have expected more good news with a new arena, etc. In hindsight, having to play off campus last year really was a buzzkill for a program that everyone was hugely optimistic about.

If Nance and Kopp hit, to say nothing of Young or Greer, that's a big deal for the program.

Also, PBJ is out there and would be a gigantic get on many levels. In the long term view of the program, he's extraordinarily important given the history.

 

[NJCat]

I, too, am a bit concerned. I'm at the point with Fitz where I more or less trust that the staff is going to fill its classes with legitimate players, at least at most of the position groups. I don't know that I have the same trust right now with Collins and his staff. (I'm also aware that my trust means hooey.)

Well, it's year 13 for Fitzy and just year 6 for Collins. Patience......

 

[rwhitney014]

Well, it's year 13 for Fitzy and just year 6 for Collins. Patience......

True. There's also FAR less margin for error in basketball, in general. Just smaller rosters. Every class takes on such big importance. Falzon being healthy and Gaines taking a normal fresh-to-soph step forward this year would also be very affirming.

 

[NJCat]

There's also FAR less margin for error in basketball, in general. Just smaller rosters.

Agree.

Epic misses on Vassar and Brown and the injuries to Rap really show how small the margin is.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

We have more talent on the current roster than I can ever remember. The problem is we don’t have a true lead guard and that is like a football team without a QB.

 

[Wrestlerneverdiesasacatfan]

We will be fine

 

[NJCat]

We will be fine

You can bet your sweet Ash on it!!

 

[haywood jahblowme]

i think we will have a fairly large bump in recruiting after this year with the new facilities much like nance and kopp after making the tournament. playing in all-state with a dismal season on court killed any recruiting momentum

we should have a competitive year with a strong tough team in a new outstanding facility with a great gameday atmosphere. should mean good things for the '20s and 21's

 

[NUCat320]

When Collins gets a kid in, 90% of the time, they are good players.

I disagree with this statement.

 

[Medill90]

I disagree with this statement.

I think a key to this statement is how Rap turns out playing at his new school. He may have been better than Skelly (based on what he did in high school his junior year).

Without Brown and his occasional and much needed spark, NU wins two less games in the Big Dance year.

Vasser was a unique story.

Lathon wasn't CC's fault.

OMG....suddenly realizing that CC may be living squarely within the NU curse.

Respect your opinion, let's see how the next couple years play out.

 

[blockm2]

My point is that Collins has only a small window of opportunity to get the players with whom he can get over the hump to a Top 20 program. Without a very good class this year, he won't have the players. And as each year passes it will become more difficult. Then impossible. He is already on the verge of being just another Power 5 coach at a program that is nothing special to kids being recruited by Top 30 programs.

Nothing personal, but how do you define a "top 20" or "top 30" program? Because those and similar terms get thrown around by fans quite a bit but there often isn't any consensus as to their meanings. I mean I've seen fans of a program that anybody would call one of the 20 best programs over a number of years (say 5+) lament when they have several seasons outside the top 25 of the rankings so they can't be a top 20 program. It's like to some people to be "top 20" as a program you have to be in the top 20 every season (or almost every season) when in reality there is a lot of flux from year to year in the rankings. For example, there probably aren't more than 3 or 4 programs that are in the top 10 most seasons and there probably aren't more than 10 programs that are in the top 20 most seasons.

 

[NUCat320]

I think a key to this statement is how Rap turns out playing at his new school. He may have been better than Skelly (based on what he did in high school his junior year).

Without Brown and his occasional and much needed spark, NU wins two less games in the Big Dance year.

Vasser was a unique story.

Lathon wasn't CC's fault.

OMG....suddenly realizing that CC may be living squarely within the NU curse.

Respect your opinion, let's see how the next couple years play out.

I think it’s a stretch to call any of the following “good” players, by B1G standards:
Vassar
Brown
Ash
Benson
Falzon

This is not to say they cannot become “good” players (let’s define good as “rotation players for a team that could finish in the top half of the conference”), just that they

I think that Gaines might become a “good” player by this definition, and that Benson and Falzon could as well.

We’ll call Ivanauskas bad luck.

The following players became, or were for at least a season or two, good players:
Mc
Law
‘Rerk
Lindsey
Skelly

I see five good, a sixth who will probably be good (AG), a seventh possibly will be (Benson), an eighth that most likely won’t be (Falzon), ninth that almost certainly won’t be (Ash), and two that weren’t (Brown and Vassar). At its most optimistic, that looks like an 82% hit rate, but more likely closer to a 63%.


I think NU’s roster - with a transfer, a grad transfer, and an unfilled grad transfer spot, and five freshmen - speaks to the fact that recruiting has been very hit-or-miss. If you hit, you aren’t looking elsewhere. (I think Turner and Taylor will prove to be hits, for what it’s worth.)

I’m also happy that CCC is locked up for a long time.

 

[freewillie07]

I will say that Greer was likely to be a commit for next year's class, but because of the circumstances they managed to reclassify him now. But he's unlikely to have much impact till next season. Not saying that's good, bad or indifferent, but it's what it is.

I, too, am a bit concerned. I'm at the point with Fitz where I more or less trust that the staff is going to fill its classes with legitimate players, at least at most of the position groups. I don't know that I have the same trust right now with Collins and his staff. (I'm also aware that my trust means hooey.)

Collins has had some big hits, and the class coming in this year has what should be multiple impact players. But there have been big misses too. The results right now don't match the rhetoric we heard 2-3 cycles ago. Not an indictment of Collins there because talk is not results, and the results are all that matter. I just would have expected more good news with a new arena, etc. In hindsight, having to play off campus last year really was a buzzkill for a program that everyone was hugely optimistic about.

If Nance and Kopp hit, to say nothing of Young or Greer, that's a big deal for the program.

Also, PBJ is out there and would be a gigantic get on many levels. In the long term view of the program, he's extraordinarily important given the history.

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see Greer or Young becoming the type of player that Lathon could have been. Frankly, the excitement around this incoming class was largely that, much like BMac/Lindsey/Law, NU was reloading with another "Big Three" of Lathon/Kopp/Nance that had even higher upside (with Young as the Skelly of the group -- high energy, tough inside).

I realize the circumstances were highly unique but I can't help but think what could have been had Lathon not committed and NU gotten a guy like Ayo -- followed by Greer in the 2019 class.

I hope Haywood is right and a resurgent year with the new facilities will make for strong 2020 and 2021 classes. But it is just frustrating at the recruiting road bumps along the way -- didn't Jordan Goodwin's high school coach joining Saint Louis to block NU, or something? Rap never got going. Etc.

Collins has been so close so many times, it has to wear him down. How he handles bouncing back from last year's debacle will be very telling.

 

[rwhitney014]

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see Greer or Young becoming the type of player that Lathon could have been. Frankly, the excitement around this incoming class was largely that, much like BMac/Lindsey/Law, NU was reloading with another "Big Three" of Lathon/Kopp/Nance that had even higher upside (with Young as the Skelly of the group -- high energy, tough inside).

I realize the circumstances were highly unique but I can't help but think what could have been had Lathon not committed and NU gotten a guy like Ayo -- followed by Greer in the 2019 class.

I hope Haywood is right and a resurgent year with the new facilities will make for strong 2020 and 2021 classes. But it is just frustrating at the recruiting road bumps along the way -- didn't Jordan Goodwin's high school coach joining Saint Louis to block NU, or something? Rap never got going. Etc.

Collins has been so close so many times, it has to wear him down. How he handles bouncing back from last year's debacle will be very telling.

I'm not sure you meant it this way, but Young vis a vis Greer is a false dichotomy. Young was in the class anyway. Greer certainly will not be the player this season that Lathon would have been, simply because Lathon would have been starting and playing 30+ minutes and Greer won't be.

I'm with you that it's very disappointing that having Lathon in the class foreclosed opportunities like Dosunmu, to the extent those were legit opportunities. I also believe that if Collins' approach is going to be one true lead guard, he's got to be double-dog sure that player can hack it at a McIntosh-type level. Since we're still not entirely sure what happened with Lathon (and the story I heard is a lot less scandalous than some of the intimations on this board), we can't really know is there fault to be ascribed to Collins and the staff or not.

What we can know is that a roster moving into a new arena with two very important seniors doesn't have a legit point guard on it going into the season. Perhaps someone can step up, run the point and move the ball around to the extent needed, and Collins is hailed as a revolutionary for perfecting positionless basketball at the college level. Just, prospectively, it's concerning. Here's hoping the team proves otherwise.

 

[ricko654321]

Well, it's year 13 for Fitzy and just year 6 for Collins. Patience......

My bar for success over a multi-year period is roughly the same in both sports - median or better performance on average in the B1G, with a positive skew in up years vs. down years. So we should be about .500 or somewhat above on average. We are going to occasionally have a year like last year in basketball (we aren't OSU football or MSU bball, unfortunately), as we do with the occasional 4-8 dud under Fitz in football. These things happen.

But over the balance of time, would like to see the team achieving a .500+ record in conference and periodically being in the upper tier of the conference. CC is earlier on and coming a pretty low base, so I think he gets a bit more forgiveness in getting us to that trajectory. But next year should not be a return to normalcy. BC was very close to achieving that goal at times, but his good years weren't good enough to get us over the hump, and he had more chances to do so.

 

[hdhntr1]

In other words, you'd settle for the latter Carmody years, 4 consecutive NITs with 8, 7, 7 and 8 B1G wins and 8th, 7th, 7th and 9th in the league......plus the Collins Unicorn 2016-17 season.

Got to remember that was with 12 teams and not the present 14. 7 would now be top half of the conference but it was not then

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

It's pretty obvious it's been a tough recruiting year for CC. The program hasn't completely turned the corner, and there are a lot of offers out there.

However, I'd argue it's still pretty early in the recruiting season. Only a small percentage of the 2019 NU offers have made their final decisions. Another example is MSU has four schollies available this year and no commits yet.

However, quite a few have already crossed NU off their list.

It's pretty obvious NU has some work to do before they become a regular part of the top 100 discussion.

I'm not a believer this is a make or break year for CC on the recruiting trail - especially since most of us have no clue about how players will develop (All of you screaming in excitement about the All-B10 potential of Dererk Pardon in 2015 raise your hand.) It's too difficult to recruit to NU's academic standards. You're kidding yourself if you think this is a 3-5 year turnaround similar to other programs.

But this staff does need to begin to show a little something more in the next couple years. It probably needs an NIT in the next year or two and another tourney by the end of the Nance class. Or else the preception could be the same ol', same 'ol.

CC also needs to show future prospects it can succeed with top-100 talent in Nance and Kopp.

Here's a look at where all the 2019 offers stand as far as I can see. I was only looking for firm final lists from players' personal Twitter accounts. For the most part, I'm not messing around with Internet "reporting" or a long list of offers.

First, the good news ...

NU on their final list
Yavoz Gultekin - NU, TCU, Nebraska, Georgetown (8/19)
Maceo Austin - NU PSU, VCU, Duquesne (8/1)
Majok Deng - Listen to this kid and tell me he's not NU material. I assume this isn't really a final list, but he lists NU, Duke, Stanford, Cal, Princeton, Rice, Vandy, Arizona, UCLA, Utah, Ohio State, Rice and Georgia Tech (7/7)

No published short list
Robbie Beran
Daniel Buie
David Roddy
Harlond Beverly
Prince Gillam
Nobal Days
Zach Freemantle
Christian Koloko
Brenden Tucker - Originally cut his list to seven without NU, but decided to re-open recruiting
* Zach Harvey
* Zeke Nnaji - No list but good luck getting a kid with a slew of offers including Arizona, Kansas, Notre Dame and hometown Minnesota.

Published short lists that don't include NU
* EJ Liddell - OSU, Mizzou, IL, KSU, Wisconsin
* Drew Timme - NU not in his top 10
* Donovan Williams - Miami, Georgia, ASU, Texas, Texas A&M
* Malik Hall - Oregon, Texas, Purdue, Oklahoma, MSU
* Isaiah Stewart - Long dead with NU. Published a short list in May.

Verbal Commits
Kadin Shedrick - Virginia w/ no NU in his final list
Paul Mulcahy - Rutgers
Tyler Wahl - Wisconsin
* Francis Okoro - Oregon (reclassified to '18)
* Kira Lewis - Alabama (reclassified to '18)

* Top 100s

You can cross Freemantle off your list...he committed to Xavier tonight.

 

[Medill90]

I think it’s a stretch to call any of the following “good” players, by B1G standards:
Vassar
Brown
Ash
Benson
Falzon
/QUOTE]


Falzon started as a frosh, shot over 33% from three and, as one Big Ten coach said, was the only NU player his team needed to spot. And then he got injured. I know, I know. A lot of guys here don't like the rest of his game. I do.

Benson showed at the end of last year that the coaches made a mistake in not giving him more minutes. I believe Collins said the same thing. He's also reputed to be one of the two hardest working players with Pardon. Benson has a nice, mid range shot.

Ash is an upper level defender, but his offensive game does not match his defense.

Vassar was a miss.

Brown was a decent player his freshman year who was then injured and regressed/lost confidence. He was also a poor fit because he wants the ball in his hands all the time which is not the offense.

 

[Sec.112]

Here's what I don't get about the make or break theory: Everybody seems to assume NU is starting with nothing. There's only one mention of Nance and Kopp above.

Let's say Nance plays like a top 60. And for the sake of argument, let's say we don't see that until next year. Can we agree he should be in the ballpark of 15 ppg?

And again, just to keep things realistic, let's say Kopp is a bit of a disappointment. Let's say he scores an inconsistent 12 ppg with inconsistent shooting from the outside.

If that's the case, I'd argue you only need another solid scorer and maybe a Kopp-above/Lindsey-like average threat to make this group a threat in Kopp and Nance's last two years.

Put a little size and some manageable role players around these four, and you have something. Does everybody really think CC can't find two reasonable threats with eight scholarships in the next two years?

And that doesn't even take Greer into consideration.

It doesn't take that much if Nance and Kopp show even ANYTHING this year or next. And if they both play like top-100 recruits this year, it takes much less.

I think some of you are setting some pretty unrealistic expectations. Somebody wrote above, "a middle of the pack (short of the Dance) finish in the 2018-19 season, will be the beginning of the end for the hopes we all had when the team won its first NCAA tournament game."

I agree with a look at the "beginning of the end ...." but TWO YEARS after the first tournament bid?!?!? Com' on.

I'd set that timeline to '20-'21 - Nance and Kopp's third years.

I think Ricko has good expectations above for the next few years.

In the meantime, CC has eight schollies to play with in the next two years. This year may be tough, but it's not even September.

 

[NJCat]

And again, just to keep things realistic, let's say Kopp is a bit of a disappointment. Let's say he scores an inconsistent 12 ppg with inconsistent shooting from the outside.

In other words, exactly like Vic Law played last season (Vic was the teams second leading scorer at 12 ppg). I'd be quite pleased with that.

 

[GOUNUII]

Here's what I don't get about the make or break theory: Everybody seems to assume NU is starting with nothing. There's only one mention of Nance and Kopp above.

Let's say Nance plays like a top 60. And for the sake of argument, let's say we don't see that until next year. Can we agree he should be in the ballpark of 15 ppg?

And again, just to keep things realistic, let's say Kopp is a bit of a disappointment. Let's say he scores an inconsistent 12 ppg with inconsistent shooting from the outside.

If that's the case, I'd argue you only need another solid scorer and maybe a Kopp-above/Lindsey-like average threat to make this group a threat in Kopp and Nance's last two years.

Put a little size and some manageable role players around these four, and you have something. Does everybody really think CC can't find two reasonable threats with eight scholarships in the next two years?

And that doesn't even take Greer into consideration.

It doesn't take that much if Nance and Kopp show even ANYTHING this year or next. And if they both play like top-100 recruits this year, it takes much less.

I think some of you are setting some pretty unrealistic expectations. Somebody wrote above, "a middle of the pack (short of the Dance) finish in the 2018-19 season, will be the beginning of the end for the hopes we all had when the team won its first NCAA tournament game."

I agree with a look at the "beginning of the end ...." but TWO YEARS after the first tournament bid?!?!? Com' on.

I'd set that timeline to '20-'21 - Nance and Kopp's third years.

I think Ricko has good expectations above for the next few years.

In the meantime, CC has eight schollies to play with in the next two years. This year may be tough, but it's not even September.

I am responsible for that quote. Let’s revisit this issue after we know what the 2019 class looks like. We’ll know more about Nance and Kopp as well. Just keep in mind that Nance will need time and development.

GOUNUII

 

[NUCat320]

Here's what I don't get about the make or break theory: Everybody seems to assume NU is starting with nothing. There's only one mention of Nance and Kopp above.

Let's say Nance plays like a top 60. And for the sake of argument, let's say we don't see that until next year. Can we agree he should be in the ballpark of 15 ppg?

And again, just to keep things realistic, let's say Kopp is a bit of a disappointment. Let's say he scores an inconsistent 12 ppg with inconsistent shooting from the outside.

If that's the case, I'd argue you only need another solid scorer and maybe a Kopp-above/Lindsey-like average threat to make this group a threat in Kopp and Nance's last two years.

Put a little size and some manageable role players around these four, and you have something. Does everybody really think CC can't find two reasonable threats with eight scholarships in the next two years?

And that doesn't even take Greer into consideration.

It doesn't take that much if Nance and Kopp show even ANYTHING this year or next. And if they both play like top-100 recruits this year, it takes much less.

I think some of you are setting some pretty unrealistic expectations. Somebody wrote above, "a middle of the pack (short of the Dance) finish in the 2018-19 season, will be the beginning of the end for the hopes we all had when the team won its first NCAA tournament game."

I agree with a look at the "beginning of the end ...." but TWO YEARS after the first tournament bid?!?!? Com' on.

I'd set that timeline to '20-'21 - Nance and Kopp's third years.

I think Ricko has good expectations above for the next few years.

In the meantime, CC has eight schollies to play with in the next two years. This year may be tough, but it's not even September.

Has Northwestern *ever* had freshmen average 15 and 12 ppg? On a team with three senior starters?

 

[Sec.112]

A little reminder about my theory ...

"... let's say we don't see that until next year."

I'm really trying to set up an INCREDIBLY conservative scenario to demonstrate things are not miles away from another decent tournament scenario.

And if CC can't find another shooter and good complements to go with Nance and Koppin 8+ schollies, well ...

 

[NJCat]

Has Northwestern *ever* had freshmen average 15 and 12 ppg? On a team with three senior starters?

Uh, I'll go out on a limb here and bet my life savings on "No".......

(Kevin Coble and Ben Johnson [the OTHER Ben Johnson] were the only First Year players in the last 20 years to even average double digits......)

 

[PURPLECAT88]

I guess I'm a little more optimistic than the rest of you, but I'm willing to completely throw out last season. Allstate Arena just sucks the life out of you. As a team, as a fanbase, as just about anything. The place completely destroyed a once-proud Depaul program. Just a shame we had to play there following the success of 2016-17. I expect this year will look a lot more like 2016-17 than last year.

 

[freewillie07]

My bar for success over a multi-year period is roughly the same in both sports - median or better performance on average in the B1G, with a positive skew in up years vs. down years. So we should be about .500 or somewhat above on average. We are going to occasionally have a year like last year in basketball (we aren't OSU football or MSU bball, unfortunately), as we do with the occasional 4-8 dud under Fitz in football. These things happen.

But over the balance of time, would like to see the team achieving a .500+ record in conference and periodically being in the upper tier of the conference. CC is earlier on and coming a pretty low base, so I think he gets a bit more forgiveness in getting us to that trajectory. But next year should not be a return to normalcy. BC was very close to achieving that goal at times, but his good years weren't good enough to get us over the hump, and he had more chances to do so.

Fitz has never had a 4-8 season, except for his very first year in 2006.

(Yes yes, it seems like splitting hairs, but 5-7 like in 2013 and 2014 would now probably be enough to get NU into a bowl game, with the team’s APR score. And I equate bad bowls to making the NIT.)

 

[Sec.112]

...(Kevin Coble and Ben Johnson [the OTHER Ben Johnson] were the only First Year players in the last 20 years to even average double digits......)

I have dibs on the $12 in Fitzphile's savings account!!

You're missing a few players off that list. Juice Thompson and Crawford to start.

My favorite name on the list is TJ Parker.

And, oh how quickly we forget ... McIntosh.

That's more than one player every four years in the last 20.

And to reiterate, I'm not talking strictly about a freshman season. For me, this is a four year view.

 

[NJCat]

I have dibs on the $12 in Fitzphile's savings account!!

You're missing a few players off that list. Juice Thompson and Crawford to start.

My favorite name on the list is TJ Parker.

And, oh how quickly we forget ... McIntosh.

That's more than one player every four years in the last 20.

And to reiterate, I'm not talking strictly about a freshman season. For me, this is a four year view.

Oops, I missed Juice (11.6 ppg) and Drew (10.0) and TJ (11.4).

But none of these guys averaged 15 or 12 or played with three Senior staters so my $12 is safe!!

 

[IGNORE2]

I think it’s a stretch to call any of the following “good” players, by B1G standards:
Vassar
Brown
Ash
Benson
Falzon

This is not to say they cannot become “good” players (let’s define good as “rotation players for a team that could finish in the top half of the conference”), just that they

I think that Gaines might become a “good” player by this definition, and that Benson and Falzon could as well.

We’ll call Ivanauskas bad luck.

The following players became, or were for at least a season or two, good players:
Mc
Law
‘Rerk
Lindsey
Skelly

I see five good, a sixth who will probably be good (AG), a seventh possibly will be (Benson), an eighth that most likely won’t be (Falzon), ninth that almost certainly won’t be (Ash), and two that weren’t (Brown and Vassar). At its most optimistic, that looks like an 82% hit rate, but more likely closer to a 63%.


I think NU’s roster - with a transfer, a grad transfer, and an unfilled grad transfer spot, and five freshmen - speaks to the fact that recruiting has been very hit-or-miss. If you hit, you aren’t looking elsewhere. (I think Turner and Taylor will prove to be hits, for what it’s worth.)

I’m also happy that CCC is locked up for a long time.

You forgot RI.

 

[NJCat]

You forgot RI.

No he didn't......

We’ll call Ivanauskas bad luck.

 

[freewillie07]

I think it’s a stretch to call any of the following “good” players, by B1G standards:
Vassar
Brown
Ash
Benson
Falzon

This is not to say they cannot become “good” players (let’s define good as “rotation players for a team that could finish in the top half of the conference”), just that they

I think that Gaines might become a “good” player by this definition, and that Benson and Falzon could as well.

We’ll call Ivanauskas bad luck.

The following players became, or were for at least a season or two, good players:
Mc
Law
‘Rerk
Lindsey
Skelly

I see five good, a sixth who will probably be good (AG), a seventh possibly will be (Benson), an eighth that most likely won’t be (Falzon), ninth that almost certainly won’t be (Ash), and two that weren’t (Brown and Vassar). At its most optimistic, that looks like an 82% hit rate, but more likely closer to a 63%.


I think NU’s roster - with a transfer, a grad transfer, and an unfilled grad transfer spot, and five freshmen - speaks to the fact that recruiting has been very hit-or-miss. If you hit, you aren’t looking elsewhere. (I think Turner and Taylor will prove to be hits, for what it’s worth.)

I’m also happy that CCC is locked up for a long time.

Benson has had his moments, most notably holding down the fort when Pardon was injured in the NCAA Tournament year. And we've heard good things about his development in the offseason. So we'll see.